1. The Gophers played a nearly perfect first quarter.
Minnesota's defense immediately got to Northwestern quarterback Hunter Johnson, generating two pressures and two sacks on Johnson's first four dropbacks. Kamal Martin got the first sack of the game on this double C-gap blitz:
The Wildcats gained 5 yards on 13 plays in the first quarter, punting three times on three possessions.
The Gophers, meanwhile, quickly moved the ball quickly against an above-average Big Ten defense. They averaged 7.6 yards per carry and refound their touch in the red zone, scoring three touchdowns with the goal to go. Tanner Morgan particularly trusted Rashod Bateman, targeting him five times for five receptions, 61 yards, and two touchdowns.
It was the kind of start that puts a game just about out of reach from the beginning. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, Minnesota's win probability was 98 percent after going up 21-0. Although the Gophers' work was not done, they made it awfully hard for them to lose.
2. Bateman and Tyler Johnson dominated again.
The Gophers' star receivers put on another show, catching 14 of 19 passes thrown to them for 125 yards and four touchdowns. Morgan targeted Bateman and Johnson often on deep throws, especially in Northwestern territory, and they made impressive catches.
Bateman and Johnson's combined talents give Minnesota arguably the nation's best receiving duo. They've already cemented themselves as the best such duo in program history; on Saturday, they became the first Gophers to each have 1,000 receiving yards in the same season. They're potentially a game away from becoming the first to each score 10 touchdowns in the same season, and both of them could break Johnson's single-season records of 1,169 yards and 12 touchdowns before the year is finished. Minnesota fans should consider Bateman and Johnson's presences on the team a gift.
3. The Gophers' ground game was effective against a tough run defense.
Northwestern has a handful of solid defenders in the front seven. Linemen Joe Gaziano and Alex Miller had made a combined 19.5 tackles for loss before Saturday, and Blake Gallagher, Paddy Fisher, and Chris Bergin are all experienced linebackers who can cause problems for an opposing offense.
The Wildcats do not have one of the nation's best rushing defenses, but they had respectable numbers. The Gophers made them look poor.
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| You can find explanations for each stat here. All references to rushing yards exclude sacks. |
According to Football Outsiders, Northwestern's Opportunity Rate allowed coming into Saturday was 40.7 percent, the 16th-best mark in the country. Over a full season, Northwestern's 62.2 percent Opportunity Rate allowed versus Minnesota would be the worst in FBS by far. The Gophers' offensive line did its job and more against what was often a six-man box.
Perhaps frightened by the Gophers' passing attack, the Wildcats gave Rodney Smith, Shannon Brooks, and Mohamed Ibrahim the space to make plays. The three backs obliged them, combining for 197 of the Gophers' 220 rushing yards.
Even when Northwestern played to stop the run, Minnesota ran effectively. On his only carry of the game, Seth Green gained 25 yards despite it being obvious what was coming.
After a couple of underwhelming performances on the ground against good defenses, Minnesota returned to efficient running.
4. Minnesota's defense allowed a few chunk plays but mostly played a good game.
After Hunter Johnson left the game with an injury, the sacks dried up for the Gophers' defense, and third-stringer Andrew Marty and his teammates made some plays. Here, Jordan Howden missed a tackle, and Riley Lees turned the play into Northwestern's biggest gain of the day.
The Wildcats scored touchdowns on all three of their trips into Minnesota territory. Purdue is the only other Power 5 team to allow Northwestern to score three touchdowns this season. That's not great company for Minnesota's defense to make.
But as a whole, it was a good performance by the Minnesota defense. The Wildcats punted six times on 10 possessions (one ended at halftime) and averaged 3.7 yards per play. Excluding Lees' 40-yard catch-and-run that skews the stats, Johnson and Marty threw for 55 yards on 11 attempts. Northwestern ran for 3.4 yards per carry. It's hard to find fault with the defense's play when those are the numbers it allowed.
5. Antoine Winfield, Jr. was seemingly everywhere.
By Winfield's standards, a two-game interception drought feels like an eternity, but he's still making other kinds of plays. Against the Wildcats, Winfield tied his season best with 10.0 tackles (9 solo, 2 assisted) and made a number of big hits, including on this strip-sack of Hunter Johnson:
Minnesota S Antoine Winfield Jr. doing his best impression of his dad on this blitz. pic.twitter.com/Z0IAbQ92ZK— Rob Paul (@RobPaulNFL) November 23, 2019
Though he's known more for his ball-hawking, Winfield has the closing speed and the strength to chase down and tackle just about anyone. He leads the Gophers in tackles (66.0) and trails only Carter Coughlin in havoc plays (13.0 to Coughlin's 13.5). His all-around playmaking is why he is a finalist for the Bronko Nagurski Trophy.
6. Morgan continues to have one of the best seasons ever for a Minnesota quarterback.
Morgan's receivers aren't the only ones having a historic season. Morgan is breaking records, too, moving into first-place on the program's single-season passing touchdowns list after throwing for four touchdowns against Northwestern. He has thrown for 2,706 yards so far, which is 189 yards short of the record Adam Weber set in 2007. Morgan could move past Weber as soon as the Wisconsin game.
He might not stop there. Down the line, Morgan could break some career records. In his second year, he is already 12th in completions, ninth in yards, and sixth in touchdowns in school history. Even coming close to maintaining his current pace through the end of his career might result in him holding most of Minnesota's significant passing records — all while not throwing many interceptions. Morgan's first two college seasons have certainly been impressive.
7. This space is reserved for absurd catches by Gophers receivers.
Tyler Johnson's speed is not elite, and he occasionally drops easy catches. But he has an NFL future because he is such an excellent route runner and has an awe-inspiring vertical. Against a shorter defender, Johnson makes any jump ball his. He and Bateman's leaping ability and body control are why the Gophers can throw so many fades to the end zone and it not be an entirely bad idea. (It remains a pretty bad one compared to other options.)
8. Special teams remain a problem.
The special teams errors from previous games were not as pervasive in Evanston, but they were still present. Grant Ryerse kicked off out of bounds for the fourth time this season, and Demetrius Douglas twice put the ball on the ground. The first time, he muffed a punt. The second time, he nearly negated a good return with a fumble when Coco Azema hit him from behind.
Had Calvin Swenson not been in position to recover it, Northwestern would have had great field position and a chance to make it a one-possession game. Instead, the Gophers got away with another sloppy play on special teams.
9. Minnesota once again avoided major injuries to key players.
At points on Saturday, Martin, Bateman, and Smith all left the field with injuries, only to return later. Had any of their injuries been serious, that would have severely hurt Minnesota's chances against Wisconsin or, should the Gophers get to Indianapolis, Ohio State. The catastrophic injuries that often hurt teams just haven't happened to Minnesota.
The Gophers did not escape Evanston unscathed, however. In the first half, Jake Paulson rode the cart to the locker room after an apparent ankle injury. P.J. Fleck said that Paulson is "day-to-day" in his midweek press conference, which could mean the injury be relatively innocuous or, this late in the year, season-ending.
Still: Losing a starting tight end hurts less when a team does not use tight ends much outside of for blocking. Ko Kieft has seen plenty of the field as a blocker, and Brevyn Spann-Ford is often the man in motion delivering a block on split zone runs out of the Green Line package. With an experienced backup in reserve in Bryce Witham, the Gophers should be relatively fine if Paulson has to miss time.
10. Whether the Gophers go to the Rose Bowl likely comes down to the Wisconsin game.
Following Penn State's loss to Ohio State this past weekend, Minnesota moved past PSU in the Playoff rankings. Beating Wisconsin on Saturday should be enough to keep the Gophers ahead of the Nittany Lions when the final rankings come after conference championship weekend. Ohio State would likely beat Minnesota and go to the Playoff, leaving the Big Ten's Rose Bowl bid to another team. An 11-2 Minnesota that beat 10-2 Penn State should get preference in bowl selection.
All that's left to take care of is an afternoon with the Badgers.
Next Game
ESPN and ABC bring College Gameday and their A-team of Chris Fowler, Kirk Herbstreit, and Maria Taylor to Minneapolis Saturday for the most consequential Power Five game of the day, a Border Battle rubber match, a sellout crowd, and essentially a Big Ten West championship game between Minnesota and Wisconsin for Paul Bunyan's Axe. As big as hosting Penn State was on Nov. 9, this game is even bigger.
The Badgers have one of the most efficient rushing offenses in the country. Jonathan Taylor is arguably the decade's greatest college running back, and he wouldn't be recognized as so if not for the work of one of the nation's best offensive lines. Even if left tackle Cole Van Lannen (who is questionable with a head injury) cannot play, Outland Trophy finalist Tyler Biadasz and the rest of Wisconsin's line should be able to give Taylor the space to run.
Last year, the Gophers prevented Taylor from hurting them with big runs; his 4.52 Highlight Yards per Opportunity were well short of his season average. Keeping Taylor out of the second level is crucial to beating the Badgers again.
Quarterback Jack Coan does not have the weapons that Morgan does, but he has been a comparably mistake-free passer. Coan is third in FBS in completion rate and has thrown just four interceptions. Quintez Cephus, averaging 15.1 yards per catch, is Coan's favorite target, but he's likely the only big-play threat in the receiving corps. The Badgers rank 111th in yards per completion. The Gophers generally prevent big passing plays, so if Wisconsin is going to show any explosiveness, they will likely do so through their star running back.
When the Gophers have the ball, they will face a defense that ranks second in the country in completion rate allowed but sometimes gets burned for significant yardage when it does allow a completion. The Badgers' physical corners might not be able to keep up with Bateman, Johnson, and Chris Autman-Bell, which would put a lot of pressure on safeties Eric Burrell and Reggie Pearson. Johnson averaged 19.0 yards per catch in Madison last year, and he could have another big day with likely more attention diverted to Bateman.
A Wisconsin front seven is usually fearsome. This year's is no different, although against Minnesota, it might be a front six more often than not. Without nose tackle Bryson Williams, and trying to contain a top-of-the-line passing attack, the Badgers will likely play a lot of 2-4-5, filling the middle with combinations of ends Isaiahh Loudermilk, Matt Henningsen, and Garrett Rand. Wisconsin has defended the run very well this season, but Illinois, Ohio State, and Nebraska caused problems. Those three teams ran for 787 yards on 109 carries (averaging 7.2 per carry) against the Badgers, suggesting that the big play problems in the back might exist up front, too.
Edge rusher Zack Baun and inside linebacker Chris Orr are the defense's best playmakers, combining for 28.0 tackles for loss, all but 7.5 of which have been sacks. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca may want to avoid calling for passes that take a while to develop, or else Baun and Orr could be in Morgan's face all afternoon. The hard part is that throwing deep looks like the best way to beat Wisconsin.
I expect each team to score a good amount. Each team can move the ball efficiently, but the Gophers likely have more firepower despite the presence of Taylor in the Badgers' backfield. The team that creates more big plays will likely win, although it's worth noting that neither team did so in Minnesota's 37-15 win in Madison last year.
The last time Minnesota and Wisconsin were ranked 12th or better when they faced each other was 1962, with the Big Ten title on the line. The No. 3 Badgers beat the No. 5 Gophers 14-9 and lost the Rose Bowl to USC. Wisconsin won the only other such meeting between the two in 1942.
Unlike this year's meeting, both of those games were in Madison. Two results of games that happened decades ago have no bearing on a game happening this Saturday, but home field advantage is real. Hosting this game in Minneapolis (with a probably less mixed crowd than normal) might be the difference in what should be a close game.
It's hard to understate the importance of this game to Minnesota's program. Fleck's diamonds need to keep shining bright.
The Badgers have one of the most efficient rushing offenses in the country. Jonathan Taylor is arguably the decade's greatest college running back, and he wouldn't be recognized as so if not for the work of one of the nation's best offensive lines. Even if left tackle Cole Van Lannen (who is questionable with a head injury) cannot play, Outland Trophy finalist Tyler Biadasz and the rest of Wisconsin's line should be able to give Taylor the space to run.
Last year, the Gophers prevented Taylor from hurting them with big runs; his 4.52 Highlight Yards per Opportunity were well short of his season average. Keeping Taylor out of the second level is crucial to beating the Badgers again.
Quarterback Jack Coan does not have the weapons that Morgan does, but he has been a comparably mistake-free passer. Coan is third in FBS in completion rate and has thrown just four interceptions. Quintez Cephus, averaging 15.1 yards per catch, is Coan's favorite target, but he's likely the only big-play threat in the receiving corps. The Badgers rank 111th in yards per completion. The Gophers generally prevent big passing plays, so if Wisconsin is going to show any explosiveness, they will likely do so through their star running back.
When the Gophers have the ball, they will face a defense that ranks second in the country in completion rate allowed but sometimes gets burned for significant yardage when it does allow a completion. The Badgers' physical corners might not be able to keep up with Bateman, Johnson, and Chris Autman-Bell, which would put a lot of pressure on safeties Eric Burrell and Reggie Pearson. Johnson averaged 19.0 yards per catch in Madison last year, and he could have another big day with likely more attention diverted to Bateman.
A Wisconsin front seven is usually fearsome. This year's is no different, although against Minnesota, it might be a front six more often than not. Without nose tackle Bryson Williams, and trying to contain a top-of-the-line passing attack, the Badgers will likely play a lot of 2-4-5, filling the middle with combinations of ends Isaiahh Loudermilk, Matt Henningsen, and Garrett Rand. Wisconsin has defended the run very well this season, but Illinois, Ohio State, and Nebraska caused problems. Those three teams ran for 787 yards on 109 carries (averaging 7.2 per carry) against the Badgers, suggesting that the big play problems in the back might exist up front, too.
Edge rusher Zack Baun and inside linebacker Chris Orr are the defense's best playmakers, combining for 28.0 tackles for loss, all but 7.5 of which have been sacks. Offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca may want to avoid calling for passes that take a while to develop, or else Baun and Orr could be in Morgan's face all afternoon. The hard part is that throwing deep looks like the best way to beat Wisconsin.
I expect each team to score a good amount. Each team can move the ball efficiently, but the Gophers likely have more firepower despite the presence of Taylor in the Badgers' backfield. The team that creates more big plays will likely win, although it's worth noting that neither team did so in Minnesota's 37-15 win in Madison last year.
The last time Minnesota and Wisconsin were ranked 12th or better when they faced each other was 1962, with the Big Ten title on the line. The No. 3 Badgers beat the No. 5 Gophers 14-9 and lost the Rose Bowl to USC. Wisconsin won the only other such meeting between the two in 1942.
Unlike this year's meeting, both of those games were in Madison. Two results of games that happened decades ago have no bearing on a game happening this Saturday, but home field advantage is real. Hosting this game in Minneapolis (with a probably less mixed crowd than normal) might be the difference in what should be a close game.
It's hard to understate the importance of this game to Minnesota's program. Fleck's diamonds need to keep shining bright.
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