August 13, 2019

2019 Minnesota Opponent Previews: Georgia Southern

Gopher football approaches. To prepare you, Chandler is previewing every opponent on the Gophers' schedule. Today, he wraps up the non-conference slate with Georgia Southern.

Minnesota doesn't have a non-conference slate full of cupcakes. After getting through an FCS powerhouse and the reigning Mountain West champions, the Gophers will have to face a team that was 10-3 a season ago and that runs an unusual offensive system. When Georgia Southern comes to town in mid-September, Minnesota needs to be ready: An upset isn't inconceivable.

2018 in Review



Tyson Summers' Georgia Southern tenure ended disastrously, with the school firing Summers halfway through 2017 after the Eagles had yet to win a game. Chad Lunsford became interim head coach and won a couple of games down the stretch, which was enough for the Georgia native, Georgia College alumnus, and longtime Southern assistant coach to become the permanent head coach.

I was skeptical that Lunsford was the right guy long-term, believing that the roster was too young to bounce back immediately. "Give it a couple years," I said, "and Southern might look like themselves again." I picked the Eagles to finish last in the East in 2018.

Instead, they came one game from winning the division, winning nine regular season games and the Camellia Bowl. Along the way, they pummeled a few opponents, were pummeled by Clemson and Troy, surprised hated rivals App State, and were surprised by ULM (and were almost surprised by Texas State). It was an up-and-down season.

Percentile performance via Bill Connelly's advanced stats glossary.

There were enough ups, though, that it was a tremendously successful season.

Offense


Since Willie Fritz left Statesboro after the 2015 season, the Southern offense has become more digestible for the triple option neophyte. Long gone are A-backs and B-backs and T-backs. Though the principles are comparable enough, and the Eagles run far more than they pass, their system doesn't look much on the surface like the Georgia Tech offense the Gophers saw in December.



Those are pretty typical plays for Paul Johnson (a two-time national champion at Southern) and his disciples to run. The linemen are all in four-point stances. The B-back (behind the quarterback). A slot back goes in motion an instant before the snap. In the top play, you can see the right slot back (No. 3) change direction after his motion. That play is a designed handoff to the B-back, but you can see how the players around him move to imitate something like the play on the bottom, an actual triple option play.

Before proceeding, I'm going to pause for a moment and establish what "triple option" even means.

This is what a normal triple option play looks like, as run by Army against Oklahoma.


There are three choices for the quarterback (No. 8) on this play: Hand off to the B-back (No. 22), pitch to the slot back coming from the left side (No. 1), or take the ball himself. The right slot back is the lead blocker, first stepping toward the backfield at the start of the play to make the defense think he might get the ball.

Army intentionally leaves two Oklahoma players unblocked: the defensive lineman (OU's No. 55) across from the right tackle (Army's No. 55), and the outside linebacker (No. 33).

The play starts with the quarterback reading the unblocked lineman. If the defender goes inside, the quarterback takes the ball; if he stays at home, the ball goes to the B-back. This is the first read.


On this play, the defender goes inside, so the quarterback takes the ball outside. Here, he has his second read: the outside linebacker. If the linebacker goes to the quarterback, then the ball goes to the slot back, No. 1, who follows No. 5 to the flat. If the linebacker goes to the quarterback, then the quarterback takes it himself, with Nos. 73 and 55 blocking for him upfield.


Though he doesn't overcommit to playing the pitch man, the linebacker steps toward him, so the quarterback tucks and runs for a three-yard gain.


This is how it looks in motion:


The right tackle could have done better blocking No. 44, and ideally, the unblocked players would have bitten harder on the B-back and pitch man. That would have opened up a lot more space for the quarterback and resulted in a bigger play.

That's what the triple option looks like in the flexbone. Teams can run it out of different formations and personnel, however.


Bob DeBesse called the above play. DeBesse, was offensive coordinator at New Mexico between 2012 and 2017. Last year, he joined Lunsford at Southern, and now the Eagles run an option-based offense out of a more modern look.


That doesn't look all that dissimilar from the way that a lot of pass-happier teams line up. The receivers' splits are rather wide, but this formation looks pretty normal to someone familiar with football in 2019.

Note: The "Z" receiver is off-screen, but he is there.

That is not very normal.

DeBesse is unafraid of using unorthodox formations like a Maryland-I out of pistol, or this tightly clustered diamond with both wide receivers next to the boundary:


The idea of these weird formations is to make the defense unsure where the ball is going and account for every offensive skill player. Watch on these two plays how the linebackers on the back side of the play freeze to watch (and even chase after) players who never touch the ball:



The Eagles also use shifts to confuse defenses. Here, they run the ball in the opposite direction of the motion.


Like any other option-based offense, Southern's is about removing opponents from the play without blocking them. If as a defender, you don't know where the ball is and fall for misdirection, you're out of the play. If everyone on defense doesn't know where the ball is and falls for misdirection, things go poorly.


One way to beat the option is to know where the ball is, stick to assignments, and not overcommit. This requires a defense to be disciplined and intelligent, and to work in concert.

Recall how the unblocked players in the Army play I went over earlier reacted to the play. The end came inside to account for the B-back, but he didn't get caught in the pileup at the line of scrimmage. The linebacker played close enough to the pitch man to tackle him if needed, but he stayed in the quarterback's way. Those two combined to make the tackle and prevent a big gain.


On the above run, the two linebackers on the play side both take the quarterback on the pitch. That would leave the running back alone in space in the flat, but the safety recognizes from the snap where the play is going. He comes down but fills the edge outside to keep the ballcarrier from reaching the sideline. The running back can only go forward. The defenders close in. The play is dead.

A simpler way to beat the option is by beating blockers and being faster than your opponent.


It's a creative, fun, and often very effective system, but the option is hardly unbeatable. Its point is to give the offense a numbers advantage. A smart and athletic defense (or ULM's) can take away that advantage.

Southern is good to pass the ball around nine times per game. Many of the team's pass plays are bubble screens to receivers, and sometimes, DeBesse will play off of that by having the QB pump fake to the outside receiver at the line before looking to his target running a go route. As is the case for a lot of option teams, the Eagles hope that the big completions make up for the unsuccessful attempts.

Shai Werts (back with the team after police mistook the bird poop in his car for cocaine) completed 59.5 percent of his passes and averaged a respectable 6.6 yards per attempt. More than a tenth of his completions were touchdowns, and he threw no interceptions.

However, Southern's pass blocking is severely lacking, often forcing Werts to scramble. And he's not the most technically proficient passer. Here against Clemson, he shuffles his feet and leans back as he delivers, missing the (well-covered) receiver downfield.

I'm no QB guru, but I don't think you're supposed to step backwards into a throw.

That pass fell incomplete, but it was an obvious passing down. When Southern has to pass, it's a manageable task for a defense. When it's less obvious, and the safeties cheat up, that's when they get you.


He can't manage an offense that throws more than his current one does, but Werts can still hit receivers when asked.

His ability to scramble, meanwhile, should be respected. Here he is saving the Eagles' chances in the Camellia Bowl with a 29-yard run on fourth down.


Werts is very good at his primary job: running the option. He makes good decisions, executes fakes well, is a fast runner, and protects the ball; he and the running backs combined for just five fumbles last season.

Most of the players joining him in the backfield this season were underclassmen in 2018. Wesley Kennedy III, Logan Wright, and Matt LaRoche combined for 948 rushing yards on 137 carries last year. None saw that much of the field, but they showed promise as a group.

The offensive line loses two All-Sun Belt players who combined for 72 career starts, but lots of experience returns. Drew Wilson missed all of 2018 but started 10 games the season prior. Wilson and Brian Miller (who filled in for him) should fill in at the tackle spots. Jakob Cooper and Aaron Dowdell started most games as the guards. Four other linemen with career starts on their ledgers are on the roster. This could be a deep group.

Minnesota handled the option well in Detroit, and that was already without leading tackler Blake Cashman. Now, without the help of safety Jacob Huff in run support and with younger linebacker depth, it may be a little harder. Still, when facing the same kind of offense, Joe Rossi's defense held up. If the Gophers play smart and outperform Sun Belt-caliber players (particularly up front), the defense can hold up against the Eagles, too.

Defense


There's a lot less to figure out about the Georgia Southern defense. It's a rather normal-looking 3-4 with "Dog" (rush or weak side) and "Anchor" (hybrid or strong side) outside linebackers. Sometimes, they may switch the roles of the outside linebackers, with the usual Dog playing coverage and the Anchor rushing the quarterback, but that's usually apparent based on their pre-snap alignment.

The Dog is outside the right offensive tackle; the Anchor is across from the slot
receiver on the opposite hash mark.

Even against four receivers, Southern stays with their base personnel instead of going to nickel – although the Anchor, being a cross between linebacker and safety, might make their base personnel nickel.

Regardless of definitions: The secondary may back off if it's an obvious passing situation. Here on third and 9 against New Mexico State (who threw the fifth-most passes in FBS last season) the free safety starts so deep that you can't see him on the screen:

The free safety is around the 50-yard line on the near hash. (I swear.)

Whether playing back paid off depends on your perspective. The Aggies had a decent day passing, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt. Their success rate through the air was an okay 41 percent. That's not a great day, so you might call it a victory for the Eagles' defense. After all, Southern won.

Then again, NMSU averaged just 5.9 yards per pass attempt all season but still put up 31 points against Southern. And playing back sometimes cost the Eagles in run defense; the Aggies ran for 5.6 yards per carry this game. A bad New Mexico State offense had a pretty respectable day and could have won if not for a bad New Mexico State defense.

Georgia Southern was generally content to concede smaller gains to prevent big plays last season, allowing the 100th-lowest success rate but the 15th-lowest Isolated Points per Play. They don't often send more than four pass rushers, which can give the opposing quarterback ample time to go through his progression.


At least in his first year as coordinator, Scott Sloan's defense was about absorbing pressure, not applying it.

With another year to develop and get used to the system, Sloan's players might be ready to take a step forward and be more aggressive. Each position group loses one or two key contributors, but none were gashed by turnover.

Up front, there should be a replacement for sack leader Logan Hunt after a handful of backup ends received a decent amount of playing time last season. All-SBC second-teamer Raymond Johnson III was more important than Hunt, making more tackles, tackles for losses, and run stuffs. Both Johnson and starting nose tackle Ty Phillips return. These are positives.

The negatives: The backups at nose are inexperienced; only C.J. Wright has made a tackle in college. Kierron Smith, a 335-pound freshman who was unrated as a recruit, is by far the biggest lineman; the next-heaviest are Wright and Phillips, each of whom weigh 290 pounds. That's perhaps a good thing for the Gophers, whose likely starting O-line averages 340 pounds. (It averages 325 pounds if you subtract outlier Daniel Faalele).

In the second level, the only major loss is Tomarcio Reese, who led the linebacker corps in tackles but finished third on the team. Rashad Byrd and Chris Harris Jr. split starts at the other inside spot and should do fine as the two full-time starters. Dog Randy Wade Jr. and Anchor Jay Bowdry combined to start 25 games (Bowdry still played in the 26th) in the two outside roles.

A number of backup linebackers saw the field last season, but only Anchor Lane Ecton did so in a significant role. Most reserves in the middle are still underclassmen. As is the case up front, there might be a depth problem.

The depth problem exists at corner, too, but the top of the depth chart there is in great shape. Senior cornerbacks Monquavion Brinson and Kindle Vildor were two of the most decorated players in the Sun Belt, combining for 21 pass breakups and five interceptions. Brinson led the Eagles in tackles. Each were all-conference selections last season, with Pro Football Focus naming Vildor its SBC Defensive Player of the Year. Here's Vildor jumping a screen pass against Clemson:


In the back, things are less certain. Both traditional safety spots need new starters; the candidates are not ideal but not terrible. I wouldn't call the situation dire.

Kenderick Duncan Jr. filled in at both safety spots last season and looks like the starter on the strong side. He finished with one tackle more than departing strong safety Sean Freeman, adding four passes defensed as well. A litany of special teams players back up Duncan.

Grad transfer Donald Rutledge Jr. joins Southern from Savannah State, where he started for a year, and should compete with Darrell Baker Jr. and Martial Washington to start at free safety. Rutledge did well in his last stop, but Division II competition doesn't quite compare to the Sun Belt (or a Big Ten opponent).

If their backups don't have to see the field much, the Eagles might substantially improve on defense. I'm just unsure that that improvement will matter against the Gophers.

The stars at corner certainly make passing a bit harder for opponents, but as discussed, there might be a lot of space to attack the Eagles in the short game. Kirk Ciarrocca loved calling slants last season; if Sloan tries to take them away by bringing down his defensive backs, there will be greater opportunity to throw deep.

Minnesota's size advantage up front and talent at receiver should be difficult for Georgia Southern to handle both on the ground and in the air.

Special Teams


Everyone relevant returns for the Eagles on special teams.

Tyler Bass was the Sun Belt's top field goal kicker last season. On 21 attempts, Bass only missed twice. He made 10 attempts from 40 yards or further, including two 50-yarders and this 40-yarder to win the Camellia Bowl:


On kickoffs, Bass performed well enough; on punts, Magill Bauerle was adequate; and on punt and kick returns, Kennedy did fine. Outside of Bass' field goals, Southern's special teams are respectable but rather unremarkable.

Conclusion


Georgia Southern is on the way up under Chad Lunsford after the Summers disaster. They play an entertaining and fascinating form of offense that can give opposing defenses fits on its best days.

Minnesota is also on the way up under P.J. Fleck. And the Gophers have better talent. Even if the Eagles' offense puts together some productive drives and keep the Gophers' offense off the field, I doubt their defense can keep the score low enough to stay in the game for long. This game is Minnesota's to lose.

Prediction: Georgia Southern 13-27 Minnesota

Many stats via Bill Connelly's advanced stat profiles and preview data.

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