Last year's game between Fresno State and Minnesota was rather eventful.
It also turned out to be one of the Gophers' most impressive performances of 2018, shutting down a strong offense and giving the eventual Mountain West champions one of their two losses on the season.
FSU has lost among the most production in FBS to graduation, however. Jeff Tedford has done a great job in the Valley, but this year's Bulldogs probably won't be as formidable as last year's.
2018 in Review
Until November, if you were in Fresno State's way, they usually disposed of you quickly. In their first nine games, the Bulldogs averaged a 28.1-point win. Though their opponents were hardly juggernauts, eight blowouts are eight blowouts.
A loss on the blue turf was FSU's only in-conference loss. They rebounded with nine- and 18-point wins over San Diego State and San Jose State to close the regular season and then avenged their loss to Boise with a snowy overtime win to claim the conference championship. By beating Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl, FSU reached 12 wins for the first time ever. To cap it off, they ranked 18th in the final AP and Coaches polls, the highest the program has finished in either. It might have been the most successful season in school history.
A loss on the blue turf was FSU's only in-conference loss. They rebounded with nine- and 18-point wins over San Diego State and San Jose State to close the regular season and then avenged their loss to Boise with a snowy overtime win to claim the conference championship. By beating Arizona State in the Las Vegas Bowl, FSU reached 12 wins for the first time ever. To cap it off, they ranked 18th in the final AP and Coaches polls, the highest the program has finished in either. It might have been the most successful season in school history.
Offense
Most players responsible for that success on offense aren't around anymore. Marcus McMaryion and KeeSean Johnson, who made a quarterback-receiver combo that lit up the Mountain West for two seasons, both graduated. Secondary receivers Jamire Jordan and Michiah Quick, as well as backup Justin Allen and reserve tight ends Kyle Riddering and David Tangipa, are also gone. The passing game will look a lot different this year.
Senior Jorge Reyna, the only non-freshman quarterback on the roster, is the new starter. Reyna has thrown just 12 passes since transferring to FSU from West Los Angeles College, but his track record there is encouraging. In his last season at WLAC, he completed 70.5 percent of his passes and averaged 8.1 yards per attempt, throwing 39 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He was effective outside of the pocket as well, scoring seven times as a runner.
Reyna has now spent two years in Tedford's system. He might not be McMaryion, but he could be more than adequate in replacing him.
I'm less confident in FSU's receiving group. FSU uses a single tight end on most plays, and Jared Rice gets the vast majority of snaps. Rice was the second-most-targeted player on the team last season, so he should be a reliable option.
Still, there's not much proven depth, which could be a problem if Rice suffers an injury. Cam Sutton, who caught three of seven passes to him last season, is the only other returning tight end on the roster. That's right: the only other one. Junior college signees Juan Rodriguez and Raymond Pauwels are the other upperclassmen on the depth chart.
Just two wideouts to make a catch last year return, and neither Derrion Grimm nor Chris Coleman look like playmakers resembling Johnson.
Johnson was a versatile weapon that coordinator Kalen DeBoer (now at Indiana) used both in the short passing game and for deeper throws. He was elusive in the flats and a scoring threat in the third level.
To fill the vacancy that Johnson and other receivers left, FSU must look to newcomers.
Blinn College transfer Keric Wheatfall has the size to play outside receiver and the speed to potentially burn FBS corners on go routes. He averaged 16.3 yards per catch at Blinn.
Redshirt freshman Emoryie Edwards was a deep threat in high school, but at 5 feet 11 inches, he may not have the height to fulfill a similar role for the Bulldogs. Still, his statistics were tremendous: As a senior, he accumulated 1,367 yards and scored 12 touchdowns on 69 catches. In his Tulare Union career, Edwards broke section records for yards and receptions and doubled as a punt returner. He ended up the third-best signing in FSU's 2018 class.
True freshman Jalen Cropper, a three-star composite recruit 247Sports gave four stars, could be an ideal slot receiver on the slants and screens that are the basis for the FSU offense. He's a shifty ballcarrier who might be too talented to redshirt despite his 155-pound frame.
Each receiver remains untested at the FBS level, however. Until we see them on the field, we have to question how effective they can be.
The offensive line is also in a state of transition. Four linemen graduated who started a combined 51 games last season. Though enough experienced backups (and two seasoned tackles) return for this to not be a total reset year up front, those departures will hurt.
Fresno State's run game was underwhelming last season, ranking 64th in yards per carry, and much of that was because of the line: The Bulldogs were 79th in line yards per carry and worse in other advanced run blocking metrics. Subtract a few veteran linemen, and their run blocking could become substantially worse.
The passing game may have headlined their offensive attack, but FSU liked to run the ball in standard downs last season. With possibly fewer options in the air, they can't easily hide any deficiencies on the ground by throwing more.
When they do run, their first option is Ronnie Rivers, a diminutive but explosive junior who averaged 5.6 yards per attempt last season. He is the Bulldogs' most dangerous returning player.
Rivers didn't play at Minnesota last season. Instead, Jordan Mims started, putting up 41 yards on 10 carries. Mims showed some agility but doesn't have the open field speed that Rivers does. Both backs contribute to the passing game; expect a lot of swing passes.
There a lot of "ifs" with this offense. If Reyna can play like McMaryion, if Rice's inexperienced backups aren't needed, if a new No. 1 receiver steps up in place of Johnson, if the new faces behind that No. 1 can contribute already, if the new line comes together quickly, and if line coach Ryan Grubb proves to be a capable replacement for DeBoer as coordinator, production shouldn't fall off dramatically.
The Gophers might be fortunate to face the Bulldogs so early in the season, before the new players have a chance to gel. Alternatively, seeing them in Week 2 might give Tedford and Grubb the element of surprise – although Fresno State opens the season at USC, which could both prove physically taxing and require the Bulldogs to put on tape much of they have in the playbook and on the depth chart.
Regardless, with these many unknowns, there is a wide range of possibilities for this offense. Based on the new players' pedigree and Tedford's reputation, I still give it a respectable floor.
Senior Jorge Reyna, the only non-freshman quarterback on the roster, is the new starter. Reyna has thrown just 12 passes since transferring to FSU from West Los Angeles College, but his track record there is encouraging. In his last season at WLAC, he completed 70.5 percent of his passes and averaged 8.1 yards per attempt, throwing 39 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He was effective outside of the pocket as well, scoring seven times as a runner.
Reyna has now spent two years in Tedford's system. He might not be McMaryion, but he could be more than adequate in replacing him.
I'm less confident in FSU's receiving group. FSU uses a single tight end on most plays, and Jared Rice gets the vast majority of snaps. Rice was the second-most-targeted player on the team last season, so he should be a reliable option.
Still, there's not much proven depth, which could be a problem if Rice suffers an injury. Cam Sutton, who caught three of seven passes to him last season, is the only other returning tight end on the roster. That's right: the only other one. Junior college signees Juan Rodriguez and Raymond Pauwels are the other upperclassmen on the depth chart.
Just two wideouts to make a catch last year return, and neither Derrion Grimm nor Chris Coleman look like playmakers resembling Johnson.
Johnson was a versatile weapon that coordinator Kalen DeBoer (now at Indiana) used both in the short passing game and for deeper throws. He was elusive in the flats and a scoring threat in the third level.
To fill the vacancy that Johnson and other receivers left, FSU must look to newcomers.
Blinn College transfer Keric Wheatfall has the size to play outside receiver and the speed to potentially burn FBS corners on go routes. He averaged 16.3 yards per catch at Blinn.
Redshirt freshman Emoryie Edwards was a deep threat in high school, but at 5 feet 11 inches, he may not have the height to fulfill a similar role for the Bulldogs. Still, his statistics were tremendous: As a senior, he accumulated 1,367 yards and scored 12 touchdowns on 69 catches. In his Tulare Union career, Edwards broke section records for yards and receptions and doubled as a punt returner. He ended up the third-best signing in FSU's 2018 class.
True freshman Jalen Cropper, a three-star composite recruit 247Sports gave four stars, could be an ideal slot receiver on the slants and screens that are the basis for the FSU offense. He's a shifty ballcarrier who might be too talented to redshirt despite his 155-pound frame.
Each receiver remains untested at the FBS level, however. Until we see them on the field, we have to question how effective they can be.
The offensive line is also in a state of transition. Four linemen graduated who started a combined 51 games last season. Though enough experienced backups (and two seasoned tackles) return for this to not be a total reset year up front, those departures will hurt.
Fresno State's run game was underwhelming last season, ranking 64th in yards per carry, and much of that was because of the line: The Bulldogs were 79th in line yards per carry and worse in other advanced run blocking metrics. Subtract a few veteran linemen, and their run blocking could become substantially worse.
The passing game may have headlined their offensive attack, but FSU liked to run the ball in standard downs last season. With possibly fewer options in the air, they can't easily hide any deficiencies on the ground by throwing more.
When they do run, their first option is Ronnie Rivers, a diminutive but explosive junior who averaged 5.6 yards per attempt last season. He is the Bulldogs' most dangerous returning player.
Rivers didn't play at Minnesota last season. Instead, Jordan Mims started, putting up 41 yards on 10 carries. Mims showed some agility but doesn't have the open field speed that Rivers does. Both backs contribute to the passing game; expect a lot of swing passes.
There a lot of "ifs" with this offense. If Reyna can play like McMaryion, if Rice's inexperienced backups aren't needed, if a new No. 1 receiver steps up in place of Johnson, if the new faces behind that No. 1 can contribute already, if the new line comes together quickly, and if line coach Ryan Grubb proves to be a capable replacement for DeBoer as coordinator, production shouldn't fall off dramatically.
The Gophers might be fortunate to face the Bulldogs so early in the season, before the new players have a chance to gel. Alternatively, seeing them in Week 2 might give Tedford and Grubb the element of surprise – although Fresno State opens the season at USC, which could both prove physically taxing and require the Bulldogs to put on tape much of they have in the playbook and on the depth chart.
Regardless, with these many unknowns, there is a wide range of possibilities for this offense. Based on the new players' pedigree and Tedford's reputation, I still give it a respectable floor.
Defense
The Fresno State defense has fewer holes to fill than the offense does, but it's not short of vacancies. All three first-string linebackers left after combining to start every game except for one (in which a healthy George Helmuth missed a start for a nickel back). Safety Mike Bell, the other member of the team's top four in tackles, left school for the NFL. Leading cover corner Anthoula Kelly, who broke up 18 passes and intercepted four, is the other major departure.
Both in run defense and in the secondary, the Bulldogs are weaker. That's no small thing for a team that ranked 31st in yards per carry, 20th in yards per pass attempt, and fourth in completion percentage allowed last season. Broad advanced stats liked them, too: According to both S&P+ and Massey, the Bulldogs had the 12th-best defense in the country FBS; in ESPN's defensive efficiency, they were 14th; and in Football Outsiders' DFEI, they were 10th. This was a formidable defense.
It should still be a good one, but the pieces that return aren't all in the right places.
If there was a weakness defensively, it was in the front four. The team's stuff rate and sack rate ranked 112th and 105th in FBS, respectively. Their line yards allowed per carry ranked 77th.
Mykal Walker was a disruptive end, but he moves to middle linebacker this season. That's less a subtraction than a reassignment, but Walker's position change dents an already shaky line. If Walker had stayed at end, I'd expect improvement from this upperclassman-heavy unit, but he didn't. Perhaps something about the line's performance last year didn't show up in stats because the star linebackers made so many plays, but that is hard to prove.
Former running back Josh Hokit joins Walker in the linebacker corps. Returning backups Arron Mosby and Justin Rice combined for 10 tackles last season. The other linebackers on the roster are former special teamers or greenhorns.
Departed starters Jeff Allison, James Bailey, and Helmuth were vital to the FSU run defense last season. Here's Allison, for example, filling the gap to meet a UCLA running back:
Allison was Fresno State's leading tackler by far, making plays like the above often enough that he declared for the NFL Draft. Bailey made 11.5 tackles for loss. Helmuth led the team in sacks. Replacing those three with such unproven players is a good way to see a loss of production. Opposing run games could have big days against the Bulldogs.
The secondary brings back a solid foundation in star safety Juju Hughes and corner Jaron Bryant. The two combined for 25 passes defensed last season. Here's Hughes making a nice play against San Diego State:
Still, defensive back continuity is very important, and Bell and Kelly leave massive holes. There's no apparent successor to Bell, who in addition to breaking up passes delivered heavy hits and was huge in run support. The two other returning corners in last season's rotation totaled 19 tackles, one pass breakup, and one interception.
Hughes and Bryant are prolific playmakers who can only do so much. A good passing game might be able to pick on whoever is on the other side of the field from Bryant.
Minnesota had a lot of success passing the ball against Fresno State (in part thanks to Tyler Johnson's heroics), but the Gophers' running game was effectively nonexistent, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. With Mohamed Ibrahim, a healthy Rodney Smith, and an improved offensive line facing a weakened FSU front seven, the Gophers may be able to attack the Bulldogs both in the air and on the ground.
That said, a great defense doesn't just crumble. With a mostly intact defensive line and still a handful of stars, Fresno State will probably be solid without the ball.
Both in run defense and in the secondary, the Bulldogs are weaker. That's no small thing for a team that ranked 31st in yards per carry, 20th in yards per pass attempt, and fourth in completion percentage allowed last season. Broad advanced stats liked them, too: According to both S&P+ and Massey, the Bulldogs had the 12th-best defense in the country FBS; in ESPN's defensive efficiency, they were 14th; and in Football Outsiders' DFEI, they were 10th. This was a formidable defense.
It should still be a good one, but the pieces that return aren't all in the right places.
If there was a weakness defensively, it was in the front four. The team's stuff rate and sack rate ranked 112th and 105th in FBS, respectively. Their line yards allowed per carry ranked 77th.
Mykal Walker was a disruptive end, but he moves to middle linebacker this season. That's less a subtraction than a reassignment, but Walker's position change dents an already shaky line. If Walker had stayed at end, I'd expect improvement from this upperclassman-heavy unit, but he didn't. Perhaps something about the line's performance last year didn't show up in stats because the star linebackers made so many plays, but that is hard to prove.
Former running back Josh Hokit joins Walker in the linebacker corps. Returning backups Arron Mosby and Justin Rice combined for 10 tackles last season. The other linebackers on the roster are former special teamers or greenhorns.
Departed starters Jeff Allison, James Bailey, and Helmuth were vital to the FSU run defense last season. Here's Allison, for example, filling the gap to meet a UCLA running back:
Allison was Fresno State's leading tackler by far, making plays like the above often enough that he declared for the NFL Draft. Bailey made 11.5 tackles for loss. Helmuth led the team in sacks. Replacing those three with such unproven players is a good way to see a loss of production. Opposing run games could have big days against the Bulldogs.
The secondary brings back a solid foundation in star safety Juju Hughes and corner Jaron Bryant. The two combined for 25 passes defensed last season. Here's Hughes making a nice play against San Diego State:
Still, defensive back continuity is very important, and Bell and Kelly leave massive holes. There's no apparent successor to Bell, who in addition to breaking up passes delivered heavy hits and was huge in run support. The two other returning corners in last season's rotation totaled 19 tackles, one pass breakup, and one interception.
Hughes and Bryant are prolific playmakers who can only do so much. A good passing game might be able to pick on whoever is on the other side of the field from Bryant.
Minnesota had a lot of success passing the ball against Fresno State (in part thanks to Tyler Johnson's heroics), but the Gophers' running game was effectively nonexistent, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. With Mohamed Ibrahim, a healthy Rodney Smith, and an improved offensive line facing a weakened FSU front seven, the Gophers may be able to attack the Bulldogs both in the air and on the ground.
That said, a great defense doesn't just crumble. With a mostly intact defensive line and still a handful of stars, Fresno State will probably be solid without the ball.
Special Teams
Fresno State had a solid punt team, ranking 18th in FBS in net yards per punt. Blake Cusick put 31 punts within the opponent's 20 yard line, which tied for the third-highest total in the country.
Freshman kicker Asa Fuller, meanwhile, didn't offer much power, not generating many touchbacks or consistently hitting long field goals. Perhaps after this offseason, Fresno State will have a better kicker – whether it's Fuller, JuCo import Cesar R. Silva, or incumbent backup Mateo Thompson.
Freshman kicker Asa Fuller, meanwhile, didn't offer much power, not generating many touchbacks or consistently hitting long field goals. Perhaps after this offseason, Fresno State will have a better kicker – whether it's Fuller, JuCo import Cesar R. Silva, or incumbent backup Mateo Thompson.
Ronnie Rivers handled punt returns for the Bulldogs and wasn't as good at it as he was being a running back, averaging an unremarkable 9.9 yards per return. The kickoff returners were worse, ranking 123rd in return efficiency. However, the primary returners are gone, so it's hard to say how FSU will do in that regard this season.
Conclusion
This is a weaker Fresno State team than the one Minnesota saw last September. Like a lot of teams dealing with significant turnover, it's probably better to see them early in the season, as the Gophers do.
But there remains potential for this to be a tough game. I expect it will be. A Tedford offense with intriguing new skill players should at least be somewhat threatening, and a formerly strong defense with continuity up front and playmakers in the second and third levels is hard to entirely dismiss. I can see this season's meeting in the Valley being a little higher scoring, with the Gophers once again ending up victorious.
Hopefully, for the sake of viewers' collective health, it won't be as eventful.
Prediction: Minnesota 34-21 Fresno State
Many stats via Bill Connelly's advanced stat profiles and preview data.
Many stats via Bill Connelly's advanced stat profiles and preview data.
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