The Big Ten West could be the tightest division in the Power 5 this season. Wisconsin is probably the favorite, but it's not inconceivable that someone else takes the title, and the other teams could fill the next five (or even six) spots in the standings in just about any order.
Minnesota's first opponent in this free-for-all: Purdue.
Minnesota's first opponent in this free-for-all: Purdue.
2018 in Review
Purdue started started last season with a trio of close losses: first to eventual West champions Northwestern by four, then to Eastern Michigan by one, and then to Missouri by three in a thrilling shootout. The Boilermakers' postgame win expectancy was between 62 and 64 percent in each game. And they lost all three by a combined eight points.
They solved their bad luck by not playing close games anymore. They won their next four by an average of 24.8 points, culminating in an upset win over Ohio State.
Down the stretch, however, their defense failed them. Purdue's final five opponents averaged 6.8 yards per play and 42.4 points per game. The offense was strong enough to beat Iowa and Indiana to make a bowl, but it couldn't save them in blowouts to Minnesota and Auburn and an overtime loss to Wisconsin.
Still, there's no questioning the direction of the program. Jeff Brohm has so effectively and quickly resurrected the Boilermakers from the depths of the Darrel Hazell era that Purdue extended him for seven years this offseason to fend off other schools. Attendance reached its highest point in years last season, and season ticket sales are increasing. He signed the 25th-best recruiting class in the country and already has three four-star recruits committed for 2020. Brohm has administrators, fans, and recruits' faith. Purdue is going places.
Offense
The first thing about Purdue you have to worry about is obvious. It's Rondale Moore.
Moore is a former four-star recruit who decommitted from Texas and turned down other major programs to make his name at Purdue. He has already lived up to his pedigree (and then some), being named a consensus All-American as a freshman. He's one of the fastest, most versatile a players in the country. He's also stronger than one would expect of someone his size, often bouncing off of defenders or running through contact for extra yards.
Purdue uses Moore in a variety of ways. He's a frequent target in the short passing game:
He's fast enough to burn defensive backs on deep routes:
And, as he showed in his first college game, he's dangerous on jet sweeps:
Moore's obvious talent also gives Purdue a decoy. Here's D.J. Knox running for a 40-yard touchdown because the threat of Moore getting the ball on a jet sweep cleared the middle of the field:
Moore was the Boilermakers' favorite weapon. He was not Purdue's only weapon, however.
Knox and Markell Jones made one of the country's best running back tandems, rushing for 1,420 yards and 13 touchdowns. Isaac Zico and Terry Wright were important outside receivers who each averaged more than 16 yards per catch. David Blough was an effective passer and frequently saved busted plays by scrambling. Their efforts' (and others') made up one of the most explosive offenses in FBS.
Every one of those players is gone. Five of seven linemen with at least one career start are also gone. This offense has some retooling to do.
Fortunately, there are worse coaches than Brohm, and worse playmakers than Moore, to have when retooling an offense.
The passing game could still be really good. Elijah Sindelar saw plenty of the field in previous seasons and is as experienced a successor as you can find.
Is he actually good? That's less certain. Sindelar doesn't have Blough's mobility. What he has is a big arm, although he could be inaccurate in his one season as the Boilermakers' preferred starter. Both of these qualities are on display in the first couple minutes of this video showing his performance in Purdue's bowl game that year:
Sindelar is the assumed starter. Redshirt freshman Jack Plummer should play in his place if Sindelar suffers from more knee problems or is inadequate.
The players around Sindelar are what give this offense some potential. Moore, Jared Sparks, and Jackson Anthrop are experienced wideouts who have contributed significantly to the Purdue offense, whether that was last season or the season prior. (Anthrop led the Boilermakers in receptions in 2017 but caught just eight passes last season with Zico, Wright, Sparks, and Moore playing major roles.) Two four-star signings, David Bell and Milton Wright (who is unrelated to Terry Wright) join the receiving corps and could see a lot of the field.
There's also fifth-year tight end Brycen Hopkins, an important part of Purdue's passing game. Hopkins made 34 catches for 583 yards and two touchdowns as a junior.
One or both of Hopkins or Cole Herdman (who graduated) were on the field on most downs. Here's a standard 2-by-2 out of shotgun, with the tight end next to the left tackle:
In short-yardage situations, both tight ends, as well as running back Zander Horvath, often came onto the field:
That was rather rare, however. Usually, Purdue used 11 personnel.
The only skill position in question is running back. Tario Fuller and Richie Worship were impressive in secondary roles in 2017, but each saw their seasons end because of injuries. Fuller hardly got the ball in 2018, and Worship missed the season entirely while recovering from offseason surgery. Neither may be ready by the time Purdue hosts Minnesota. Fuller broke his jaw during fall camp, and Worship's knee isn't healthy yet. Horvath, who has 13 career touches, may be the starting running back until well into the season. True freshman King Doerue is the backup for now.
Regardless of who is in the backfield, the success of the run game depends more on the offensive line. That position group is the team's biggest concern. The two-deep features neither age nor experience. Tackles Grant Hermanns and Matt McCann are the only returning linemen to start a game. The four other upperclassmen on the roster include a converted defensive tackle and three former walk-ons. Such a young unit could pose a debilitating problem.
With out a strong O-line, the Boilermakers may have to adjust their scheme. They haven't been a running team since Brohm became head coach; last season they averaged the seventh-fewest rushing attempts per game in FBS. That won't change.
What might change is Purdue's willingness to throw deep. Yes, Sindelar has the arm, and yes, he has the weapons, but he might not have the time. Even out of shotgun (which Purdue uses frequently), long-developing plays aren't as viable with poor pass blocking. We might see less of this...
...and more of this:
There are already plenty of short passes, especially to Moore, but personnel might require that they become a bigger part of the offense.
What I don't expect is that Brohm will lose his affinity for misdirection. The Boilermakers throw a bunch of small deceptions at a defense. Look at how Blough sells the triple option before giving Moore the ball on an end around:
They also love trick plays. Take this reverse pass to the quarterback:
For more examples, you can watch this compilation of trick plays Purdue ran in 2017:
(My favorite part is the fake flea flicker. Who runs a fake off of a trick play they ran earlier in the season? That's pure brilliance. I also enjoy Brohm taking Kliff Kingsbury's "Little People, Big World" — which was originally Gus Malzahn's "Woody," first ran at Arkansas in 2006.)
The point is, Brohm and his offensive coordinators (Brian Brohm and JaMarcus Shephard) like to keep opponents off-balance. Like against Georgia Southern, Minnesota needs to play smart and disciplined defense.
And like against Fresno State, it's probably better that Minnesota plays this team early in the season. Week 5 might be late enough in the season for some of the new starting skill players to have settled in, but an offensive line needs a lot more time than that. Just as a young Minnesota line played poorly until it gained experience (and the right combination of players was found), the Purdue line will likely play poorly until it gains experience.
I still don't fully understand how the Gophers contained the Boilermaker offense in November. I don't expect their meeting in September will go similarly, but what was a formidable offense last season should be hampered by line play and could be significantly worse at quarterback and running back.
Moore is a former four-star recruit who decommitted from Texas and turned down other major programs to make his name at Purdue. He has already lived up to his pedigree (and then some), being named a consensus All-American as a freshman. He's one of the fastest, most versatile a players in the country. He's also stronger than one would expect of someone his size, often bouncing off of defenders or running through contact for extra yards.
Purdue uses Moore in a variety of ways. He's a frequent target in the short passing game:
He's fast enough to burn defensive backs on deep routes:
And, as he showed in his first college game, he's dangerous on jet sweeps:
Moore's obvious talent also gives Purdue a decoy. Here's D.J. Knox running for a 40-yard touchdown because the threat of Moore getting the ball on a jet sweep cleared the middle of the field:
Moore was the Boilermakers' favorite weapon. He was not Purdue's only weapon, however.
Knox and Markell Jones made one of the country's best running back tandems, rushing for 1,420 yards and 13 touchdowns. Isaac Zico and Terry Wright were important outside receivers who each averaged more than 16 yards per catch. David Blough was an effective passer and frequently saved busted plays by scrambling. Their efforts' (and others') made up one of the most explosive offenses in FBS.
Every one of those players is gone. Five of seven linemen with at least one career start are also gone. This offense has some retooling to do.
Fortunately, there are worse coaches than Brohm, and worse playmakers than Moore, to have when retooling an offense.
The passing game could still be really good. Elijah Sindelar saw plenty of the field in previous seasons and is as experienced a successor as you can find.
Is he actually good? That's less certain. Sindelar doesn't have Blough's mobility. What he has is a big arm, although he could be inaccurate in his one season as the Boilermakers' preferred starter. Both of these qualities are on display in the first couple minutes of this video showing his performance in Purdue's bowl game that year:
Sindelar is the assumed starter. Redshirt freshman Jack Plummer should play in his place if Sindelar suffers from more knee problems or is inadequate.
The players around Sindelar are what give this offense some potential. Moore, Jared Sparks, and Jackson Anthrop are experienced wideouts who have contributed significantly to the Purdue offense, whether that was last season or the season prior. (Anthrop led the Boilermakers in receptions in 2017 but caught just eight passes last season with Zico, Wright, Sparks, and Moore playing major roles.) Two four-star signings, David Bell and Milton Wright (who is unrelated to Terry Wright) join the receiving corps and could see a lot of the field.
There's also fifth-year tight end Brycen Hopkins, an important part of Purdue's passing game. Hopkins made 34 catches for 583 yards and two touchdowns as a junior.
One or both of Hopkins or Cole Herdman (who graduated) were on the field on most downs. Here's a standard 2-by-2 out of shotgun, with the tight end next to the left tackle:
In short-yardage situations, both tight ends, as well as running back Zander Horvath, often came onto the field:
That was rather rare, however. Usually, Purdue used 11 personnel.
The only skill position in question is running back. Tario Fuller and Richie Worship were impressive in secondary roles in 2017, but each saw their seasons end because of injuries. Fuller hardly got the ball in 2018, and Worship missed the season entirely while recovering from offseason surgery. Neither may be ready by the time Purdue hosts Minnesota. Fuller broke his jaw during fall camp, and Worship's knee isn't healthy yet. Horvath, who has 13 career touches, may be the starting running back until well into the season. True freshman King Doerue is the backup for now.
Regardless of who is in the backfield, the success of the run game depends more on the offensive line. That position group is the team's biggest concern. The two-deep features neither age nor experience. Tackles Grant Hermanns and Matt McCann are the only returning linemen to start a game. The four other upperclassmen on the roster include a converted defensive tackle and three former walk-ons. Such a young unit could pose a debilitating problem.
With out a strong O-line, the Boilermakers may have to adjust their scheme. They haven't been a running team since Brohm became head coach; last season they averaged the seventh-fewest rushing attempts per game in FBS. That won't change.
What might change is Purdue's willingness to throw deep. Yes, Sindelar has the arm, and yes, he has the weapons, but he might not have the time. Even out of shotgun (which Purdue uses frequently), long-developing plays aren't as viable with poor pass blocking. We might see less of this...
...and more of this:
There are already plenty of short passes, especially to Moore, but personnel might require that they become a bigger part of the offense.
What I don't expect is that Brohm will lose his affinity for misdirection. The Boilermakers throw a bunch of small deceptions at a defense. Look at how Blough sells the triple option before giving Moore the ball on an end around:
They also love trick plays. Take this reverse pass to the quarterback:
For more examples, you can watch this compilation of trick plays Purdue ran in 2017:
(My favorite part is the fake flea flicker. Who runs a fake off of a trick play they ran earlier in the season? That's pure brilliance. I also enjoy Brohm taking Kliff Kingsbury's "Little People, Big World" — which was originally Gus Malzahn's "Woody," first ran at Arkansas in 2006.)
The point is, Brohm and his offensive coordinators (Brian Brohm and JaMarcus Shephard) like to keep opponents off-balance. Like against Georgia Southern, Minnesota needs to play smart and disciplined defense.
And like against Fresno State, it's probably better that Minnesota plays this team early in the season. Week 5 might be late enough in the season for some of the new starting skill players to have settled in, but an offensive line needs a lot more time than that. Just as a young Minnesota line played poorly until it gained experience (and the right combination of players was found), the Purdue line will likely play poorly until it gains experience.
I still don't fully understand how the Gophers contained the Boilermaker offense in November. I don't expect their meeting in September will go similarly, but what was a formidable offense last season should be hampered by line play and could be significantly worse at quarterback and running back.
Defense
It's difficult to say how well Purdue's scowling defensive coordinator Nick Holt has done since taking over in 2017. His first season was indisputably a success: The Boilermakers trimmed nearly 18 points per game off the scoreboard, going from 10th-worst in FBS to 24th-best.
But then, in Holt's second season, they allowed 8.5 points more per game, falling to 83rd.
The obvious culprit of this wild fluctuation is roster turnover.
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| (Returning production stats via Bill Connelly.) |
Going into 2017, Holt had mostly veterans. The new coaching staff did a great job — under Darrell Hazell, Purdue's defenses were terrible — but they got help from having so much continuity in the two-deep.
Going into 2018, Holt only had a handful of upperclassmen, and the defense declined nearly to Hazell levels.
Going into 2019, Holt has a much more experienced roster. That should foreshadow improvement, although the degree of that improvement will probably not be as extreme as in 2017.
Last year, Purdue's defense took the biggest step back in the front seven. Losing four regular linebackers and four regular defensive linemen hurt the Boilermakers in both rush and pass defense. They allowed more yards per carry and a higher completion rate, and they posted a paltry 4.8 percent sack rate. The linebackers' havoc rate dropped from 15th-best in the country to 97th-best.
For Purdue to regain its form defensively, the line needs to be more disruptive. End Giovanni Reviere was the best lineman at wreaking havoc as a freshman. He had just 3.0 sacks. Senior tackle Lorenzo Neal, the heaviest player on the roster at 315 pounds, is an effective road block who has forced four fumbles over the past two seasons. He made just 3.0 tackles for loss last year.
Fortunately, not many linemen have departed. What's more, Purdue has added a four-star defensive end, West Lafayette native George Karlaftis. Karlaftis was the 59th-ranked prospect in the country and should easily fill a starting spot on the Boilermakers' line. He, Reviere, and senior Kai Higgins could make a reliable end rotation. Whether there's enough depth at tackle is debatable, but Neal and Anthony Watts look like passable starters. Experience leads to improvement, and the Purdue D-line has enough experience to improve.
The linebackers need to get better in rush defense and especially in pass coverage. Starters Markus Bailey, Derrick Barnes, and Cornel Jones combined for just three pass breakups and one interception last year. (It was, admittedly, a pretty big interception.) The previous season's starters (which included Bailey) broke up seven passes and intercepted two — not that much better, as that group was primarily concerned with stopping the run as well, but small gains could put much less pressure on the secondary.
Bailey led the team in total tackles and sacks each of the last two seasons. He'll line up in the slot, in the middle, or off the edge, but he's much better near the line of scrimmage than he is following a receiver.
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| Bailey (No. 21) starts in front of Nebraska's second receiver outside the far hash. |
If Holt requires Bailey and the other linebackers to drop into coverage against teams that can throw the ball, like Minnesota or Nebraska, then they have to be better at it.
The linebacker corps also loses an important contributor in Jacob Thieneman. Thieneman was officially the strong safety and usually played deep, but he also came down fairly often to blitz or create an eight-man box.
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| Theineman is the defender in the middle of the hashes at roughly the 43-yard line. |
Thieneman finished the year with 7.0 TFLs and 5.0 sacks, the latter of which was second only to Bailey despite missing the last three games of the regular season.
His brother, Brennan Thieneman, started in his place for those games. Brennan was not a factor at the line of scrimmage, making zero run stuffs or tackles for loss over the whole season. He broke up three passes, but Purdue missed Jacob's presence in the box.
Freshman Marvin Grant might start at strong safety. Grant, a four-star signing from Detroit, is big enough to play a role in run support and may play a position somewhere between safety and outside linebacker. Sounds a bit like Jacob Thieneman's role, doesn't it?
The other starting safety is much more established. Senior Navon Mosley has started 35 of the 38 games Purdue has played since he arrived to campus, and he has finished fifth or better on the team in tackles in each of his three seasons. The Boilermakers should start grooming a replacement for him, but for now, the position is all his.
Sophomore Kenneth Major and junior Simeon Smiley will probably start at corner. Major started most of the season as the corner. He recorded 45.0 tackles and defensed five passes. A lockdown corner should break up more passes and not have to make as many tackles, but Major was pretty respectable for a redshirt freshman. Smiley was a nickel back and backup safety last season. He played well, breaking up seven passes and making an interception against Nebraska. That's a decent starting pair.
If one of them underperforms or suffers an injury, Purdue might have some issues. The only upperclassman cornerback is former walk-on David Day, a senior who has not played a game in college. Redshirt sophomore Dedrick Mackey, with four tackles and two pass breakups in his college career, is the most veteran reserve corner.
The secondary is in a fragile state at the moment. The top of the depth chart looks like it has potential where it doesn't have experience. But once you get to the second string, it looks unstable. A lot of freshmen and sophomores play backup roles, which may result in a strong unit later, but right now, it's just weak.
In coverage, Purdue backed off a lot. Holt's strategy was absorption: Give up more completions but prevent the big play. Perhaps this was a reaction to a weakened two-deep; with less talent, it's easier to try containing the opposing offense rather than to try pushing it around.
You could see this in how Purdue's corners lined up before the play. Look how far back they are on this down:
The Boilermakers played a lot more zone than man last season, and even a relative strategy dummy like me can identify their coverages pre-snap.
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| Cover 1 |
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| Cover 2 |
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| Cover 3 |
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| Cover 6 |
Still, Holt would blitz from time to time, whether he sent a linebacker, corner, or safety.
It's hard to define Holt's defense by personnel, as the positions of the players in the box can be fluid. Here, it looks like a basic 4-3:
Here, the ends are in two-point stances, and the linebackers are a bit further from the line:
And here, the linebacker Barnes is in the place of a defensive end, and Purdue is in a 3-3-5:
Facing an amorphous defense didn't seem to slow down opposing offenses last season, but the thinking is that it makes it harder for the quarterback to tell before the snap who is rushing and who is not. I didn't think that it was that difficult to figure that out; for the most part, the players who blitzed showed blitz before the snap, with the ends (Reviere and Higgins) even more frequently rushing from a two-point stance.
Perhaps to accommodate all the young players across the depth chart, Holt had to simplify, resulting in these relatively easy pre-snap reads. With a more experienced group of starters, the Boilermakers might hide their coverages and blitzes more.
They should play better. Continuity is vital on defense, and Purdue has it again — at least until injury strikes. This team's depth could prove costly, especially against good passing games.
Special Teams
Purdue hopes to not see a significant decline in production at punter after losing Joe Schopper, who did a solid job. Schopper's replacement is either redshirt sophomore Zac Collins or true freshman Brooks Cormier, who probably has a better chance of starting after Kohl's Kicking gave him a five-star rating as a recruit.
It makes the most sense for J.D. Dellinger to take over as the place-kicker after playing a part-time role in each of the last two seasons. He redshirted in 2018 and made one emergency appearance against Boston College; in 2017, he split the starting job with Spencer Evans. Now that Evans has graduated, Dellinger is finally the No. 1.
Moore returns punts and kicks for the Boilermakers. His numbers weren't very good last season, but he has the right skill set for it and remains dangerous any time he touches the ball.
It makes the most sense for J.D. Dellinger to take over as the place-kicker after playing a part-time role in each of the last two seasons. He redshirted in 2018 and made one emergency appearance against Boston College; in 2017, he split the starting job with Spencer Evans. Now that Evans has graduated, Dellinger is finally the No. 1.
Moore returns punts and kicks for the Boilermakers. His numbers weren't very good last season, but he has the right skill set for it and remains dangerous any time he touches the ball.
Conclusion
Purdue is still waiting on a proper "breakout" season. I don't think 2019 is it. The rest of the West is either already good or moving in a good direction. The trip to State College on Oct. 5 is a likely loss, and you can talk yourself into home games against Maryland and Indiana being tricky. Even the non-conference schedule (at Nevada, vs. Vanderbilt, and vs. TCU) looks somewhat difficult.
According to FPI, Purdue has a 60 percent chance or better to win three games; according to S&P+, those odds apply to just two games. There are many toss-ups on the schedule.
The Minnesota game may be one of those toss-ups. If Brohm and his assistants are lucky with injuries and adapt to their team's key deficiencies (the O-line, depth in the secondary, and running back), and Sindelar plays well, then the Boilermaker's odds improve.
I believe in Brohm. I don't believe in this roster. I expect Purdue will upset someone this season and make a good run at bowl eligibility, but I don't see them factoring into the division race. Give it a year, and the Boilermakers will be dangerous. Right now, they're just scary.
According to FPI, Purdue has a 60 percent chance or better to win three games; according to S&P+, those odds apply to just two games. There are many toss-ups on the schedule.
The Minnesota game may be one of those toss-ups. If Brohm and his assistants are lucky with injuries and adapt to their team's key deficiencies (the O-line, depth in the secondary, and running back), and Sindelar plays well, then the Boilermaker's odds improve.
I believe in Brohm. I don't believe in this roster. I expect Purdue will upset someone this season and make a good run at bowl eligibility, but I don't see them factoring into the division race. Give it a year, and the Boilermakers will be dangerous. Right now, they're just scary.
Prediction: Minnesota 27-19 Purdue
Many stats via Bill Connelly's advanced stat profiles and preview data.
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