Previewing New Mexico

Overview

Record: 9-3 (6-2, 4th in Mountain West)

"Second-order" Record: 7.6-4.4

SP+ Overall Rank: 65th

New Mexico has been one of 2025's most pleasant surprises. A year ago, the school prudently hired Bronco Mendenhall, a veteran coach with ample experience out west, only for him to take over conference mate Utah State after one 5-7 season. Players left. UNM entered the year ranking 117th in returning production, which seemed to foreshadow a difficult first season for Jason Eck.

Instead, Eck and his 43 incoming transfers (seven of whom came from his prior stop, Idaho) won the program's most regular season games since 1997, which was Dennis Franchione's last year in charge. The Lobos finished 4th in a four-way tie atop the Mountain West and now get to play a Big Ten team in a bowl game just 80 minutes by air from Albuquerque.

Eck signed a contract extension at the end of November, which will not keep him at UNM for long but resets the buyout other schools would owe them if he left next year. I am a longtime Eck believer. He seems like the perfect candidate to take over at his alma mater, Wisconsin, at the end of 2026, which adds some intrigue to this game. The 2017 Cotton Bowl, where P.J. Fleck coached Western Michigan for the last time against Wisconsin before taking the Minnesota job, provides an imperfect parallel.

More immediately, the Lobos are a solid team that will provide the Gophers a real game. SP+, FPI, and CFB Graphs have this matchup as a practical toss-up. Minnesota being in the sport's second-best conference and New Mexico being in likely the third-worst does not remotely make the result a given.

Offense

Jason Eck and offensive coordinator Luke Schleusner have put together an offense that is not spectacular but respectable, ranking in the middle of FBS and the Mountain West in most statistical categories. There are more efficient teams, there are more explosive teams, and there are teams with more playmakers, but what New Mexico does works enough.

The Lobos operate at a basically even run-pass split, and getting in an early hole at Michigan forced them to go pass-first. However, in their trip to UCLA, they adopted a strictly ball-control mentality and rolled. Of UNM's 63 plays, 46 were runs, gaining 298 yards. The Lobos also let almost 35 seconds run off the clock per play. Minnesota is a better team than UCLA — especially the version of the Bruins we saw in September — but we can probably bet on a similar approach in Phoenix. At a talent disadvantage, the Lobos will want to limit possessions and stick to the ground.

The Lobos' run game relies largely on zone concepts — inside, outside, split — but has plenty of diversity, with power, counter, and trap all in the playbook. A favorite design is a rarity in 2025, the G-lead or G-scheme run, where the playside guard pulls ahead with the help of a blocking back:

The above play is out of a quasi-Wildcat package featuring backup quarterback James Laubstein. First-stringer Jack Layne sometimes leaves the field for several downs at a time to give Laubstein some work, which means he does drop back a fair bit: Laubstein has thrown 14 passes this year. However, the overwhelming majority of his snaps are designed runs. He has exactly 1 more rushing yard than Layne (310 versus 309) on six fewer carries (43 to 49). Both quarterbacks take the ball on draw and read option.

New Mexico also likes to introduce some extra size to the formation. They do not go quite as heavy as Minnesota used to under Mike Sanford Jr., but a sixth lineman is a common sight on any down and distance, and at any place on the field. Rather than lining up tight to the formation or pushing the tackle down another spot, like in most offenses, guard Jaymar Tasi will often take a wingback position.

Or, like an extra lineman in Andy Kotelnicki's Penn State offense, he might motion into the play from the sideline and cut off an edge defender's outside shoulder:

Hey, it's G-lead again.

Three running backs will get the ball in fairly equal amounts. D.J. McKinney, Damon Bankston, and Scottre Humphrey all took between 77 and 109 carries, totaling 1,381 yards and 17 touchdowns between them. At 5 feet, 8 inches tall, McKinney has good balance but is not a heavy hitter. Humphrey, the biggest of the three at 216 pounds, is not a factor in the passing game. Bankston is the most explosive and the most likely target on a screen.

While they favor 11 and 12 personnel, the Lobos like their tailbacks too much not to put a couple of them on the field at the same time. This may mean putting Bankston and Humphrey next to Layne, or they may motion McKinney across the formation from the sideline, taking the defense's eyes away from whoever is in the backfield.

It is not uncommon for Schleusner call the same run from the same look several times in one game, on one drive, or even on back-to-back plays. The Lobos like to stick with what they repped during the week and with what works. They'll also throw in a trick play more than most offenses — at least one per game.

Their passing game is largely built around getting the ball to their star tight end, Dorian Thomas. Thomas was deservedly the offense's only first-team All-Mountain West selection, leading the Lobos in touchdowns (four) and trailing only Vanderbilt's Eli Stowers in receptions by a tight end (53). Thomas will run any route, but most of his targets are on plays designed for him: screens, wheels, flats, seams off of play-action, Travis Kelce-style shovel passes, and anything else to get him into space and let him pick up yards after the catch.

Thomas presents easily New Mexico's biggest threat. Second tight end Cade Keith is not as dynamic as Thomas but still a key part of the offense, making 20 catches for three touchdowns. Look out for either of them in the red zone.

The receiving room, by comparison, is remarkably thin. Keagan Johnson, a onetime Iowa Hawkeye, has a team-best 57 catches and is in fact the only wide receiver on the team with more than 14. The Lobos get him the ball however they can: tap passes, quick stop routes, slants off RPOs. But it's not just underneath stuff. If Layne takes a shot or needs to convert a big 3rd down, he is looking Johnson's way.

Shawn Miller and Zhaiel Smith are good for a catch per game but are not serious concerns. Neither is third tight end Simon Mapa, who is mostly just a blocker. If Minnesota's safeties can stay on top of Johnson going vertical, New Mexico will need Thomas and Keith to win their matchup against the Gophers' linebackers, who face a serious mental and physical test.

Sacks are the one thing that kills this offense. Pass protection can only take part of the blame for that. Layne usually has a decent pocket for long enough to get off a throw, but he just holds onto the ball for too long. Yes, he doesn't see many open receivers because there aren't enough receivers who can get open. Yes, there were games this season where Schleusner called too many long-developing plays with only two or three route runners. Yes, the line got torched by UNLV and San Diego State. But Layne does not see the field very well.

This play did not end in a sack but did result in a punt because Layne locked onto Johnson running a deep post, even though he had multiple options for both a conversion and a chunk play over the middle:

This play did end in a sack because he kept his eyes downfield and either did not see or declined a safe throw to Thomas in the flat:

He does have a good enough arm for his level and can uncork an accurate deep ball, but Layne's touch on short throws is inconsistent. Screens are a significant part of the offense, and the way he awkwardly floats the ball forces his tailback to stop or change direction for the catch, disrupting the play's timing. He also just misses checkdowns sometimes. He generally looks more comfortable loading up for intermediate and deep throws than he does executing some of the easy stuff.

Layne is a perfectly okay Mountain West quarterback. He pilots the offense well enough. He can run, so the Minnesota line will have to make sure he stays in the pocket. He will still make the kinds of mistakes Minnesota must exploit. Sitting back in coverage and letting a top-of-the-line pass rush go to work may be the best path for defensive coordinator Danny Collins.

Defense

The thing that immediately stands out about New Mexico is that they field the smallest defensive line Minnesota has faced all year. Just two members of the two-deep weigh more than 280 pounds, which even for Northwestern State was not the case. At a glance, this looks like an opportunity for the Gophers' beleaguered offensive line to get something going on the ground.

In the aggregate, the Lobos have defended the run fairly well. Game-by-game, the story is a little more uneven. In four of their twelve games, they allowed rushing success rate that would rank in the bottom fifth of FBS over a full season. That doesn't include the opener at Michigan, where they allowed a merely bad 46.2 percent success rate and season-worst 206 non-sack yards.

Yet at other points, New Mexico was hugely effective against the run. Five of their single-game rushing success rates allowed would have ranked in the top fifth of FBS over a full season. Colorado State ran for just 39 yards on 21 carries.

The bad days are a direct result of their size disadvantage. Even 325-pound nose tackle Brian Booker, an all-conference honorable mention, looked outmatched at the Big House. As opponents get closer to the red zone, the Lobos load up the box more and play Cover 0, but they do not have meaningful reinforcements. Opponents convert 83.1 percent of their attempts on 3rd- and 4th-and-2 or less, a mark that puts the New Mexico defense 129th in FBS.

The good days are a result of how coordinator Spence Nowinsky has tried to make up for that: havoc. They attack the run aggressively, racking up tackles for loss and putting teams behind the chains. That can accentuate their weakness, resulting in big gains, but especially in Mountain West play, they have been willing to make that trade.

The leader in their efforts against the run is Mountain West co-Defensive Player of the Year Jaxton Eck, the head coach's son. Eck had a poor showing at Michigan but rebounded to make 95.0 tackles (64 solo), which ranked 5th in FBS entering bowl season. He is not a coverage linebacker by any stretch, but the kind of heatseeker who darts through traffic to blow up a running back.

The other big playmakers on this defense are at the end positions. Brett Karhu, with 10.5 TFLs (7.0 sacks), is actually the lesser of the two because Keyshawn James-Newby is a real monster. Like Eck, James-Newby was an FCS All-American at Idaho a year ago, and his talents have immediately translated to FBS success. He registered 13.0 TFLs (8.0 sacks — 1st in the Mountain West), five pass breakups, and two forced fumbles. If you leave him unblocked, even if it's to run a play behind him or surprise him with a puller, he will shoot into the backfield and spoil that plan.

The rest of the team's sacks are more evenly distributed; no other player has more than 2.0. Tackle Gabriel Lopez, end Darren Agu, and apparent tweener Xavier Slayton (all under 250 pounds) offer some more disruptiveness up front.

The back end is less boom-or-bust — it's just closer to bust. Just three teams in FBS have allowed a higher completion rate than the Lobos' 68.8 percent. (Minnesota is three spots ahead.) Even with the pass rush, and even though those completions do not go for many yards, they just allow too many catches for this to be an effective pass defense.

The corners are not good enough one-on-one when New Mexico plays man, but the other players in the defense struggle to do their jobs as well. On standard downs, Nowinsky favors Cover 3. As in Cover 1, help on any deep route comes from a single-high safety. As UNLV shows here, getting that one man to hesitate because of motion or play-action can open up a route over the top:

On this play, like UNLV did above, UCLA drew the Lobos over to the boundary side with a bunch formation. The field corner, Jon Johnson, had outside leverage on any outside receiver going vertical. Johnson gave too much room, but deep safety Tavian Combs apparently got his eyes caught in the traffic over the middle and didn't come over to close the space. It was an easy touchdown to the post, a route that the player in center field is supposed to take away.

If Johnson played tighter to his man, though, UCLA would have had a touchdown to the back running a wheel route. This brings us to one of the recurring weaknesses in New Mexico's coverage: the flats. The flat defenders in Cover 3, usually the outside linebacker and nickelback, have to run a long way to get to their zones. The Lobos can get caught looking in the backfield, which gives a receiver just enough time to settle on the numbers while another player clears out the cornerback. Michigan ran the following play against Quarters, a coverage where the same idea applies: put the linebackers in conflict, send the outside receiver deep, and run the tight end across the formation into the flat.

If Minnesota had a better rushing attack, I would say the Gophers should take advantage of a lightweight New Mexico front six and avoid getting put off schedule. If the receiving corps was less depleted, I would say they will carve up this secondary. If they attack the sidelines and can get the play-action game going, they can partially achieve the latter. The handful of real stars the Lobos have still presents problems for the Gophers to overcome.

Special Teams

Damon Bankston only averages about one return per game but is likely the Mountain West's best kickoff returner. He won first-team all-conference honors at the position and averaged the most yards per attempt — even if you remove everyone's longest return.

Here is Bankston's longest return, by the way, a 100-yard touchdown at Boise State:

Defending kick returns has not been a big problem for the Gophers, in part because P.J. Fleck has long wanted touchbacks over returnable kicks. Bankston still presents a clear danger. D.J. McKinney has a punt return touchdown this year as well, but with just four returns, it is hard to judge his overall abilities.

Senior placekicker Luke Drzewiecki was nearly perfect on the year, never trying a field goal longer than 46 yards but missing just one of his 16 attempts — from 34 yards — and converting all 36 PATs. This was by far the best year of his career. Kickoffs produced an acceptable touchback rate (60th) and return average (55th). Koi Perich should have opportunities to give Minnesota a field position advantage on kick returns, but as always, a confident player needs to pick his spots.

The Lobos have a strong punt unit, ranking high nationally in yards per punt (16th), net punt yards (6th), and yards per return allowed (16th). Punter Daniel Hughes' touchback rate (58th) and return rate (115th) were worse, but he put his coverage teams in good positions while getting good distance on his punts. Punt returners don't have much success against this team.

Final Thoughts

As covered when the Gophers played Virginia Tech in January, bowl outcomes have a lot to do with who shows up. As far as we can tell, New Mexico will not be shorthanded. Minnesota will lack at least a few offensive players due to impending transfers — Fame Ijeboi, Malachi Coleman, and Kenric Lanier — and possibly others who may want to protect themselves before the NFL Draft. If Le'Meke Brockington, Darius Taylor, and Jameson Geers are missing, Drake Lindsey has a lot less help. A defense without Deven Eastern and Devon Williams will miss size and experience at two key positions against an elaborate rushing attack.

But for the most part, the Gophers we saw in the regular season should be the Gophers who take the field in Phoenix. Even Anthony Smith, likely to play pro ball next fall, is practicing. A nearly complete team should put the Gophers in good position. The Lobos' best offensive weapons are dangerous, but they do not have many of them. Jack Layne will probably give Minnesota's safeties a chance at an interception. Smith, Jaxon Howard, and Karter Menz will get into the backfield. Jalen Smith and Javon Tracy should do damage against New Mexico's corners.

This will nevertheless be a close, at times frustrating game played on bad grass. Dorian Thomas and Keagan Johnson will make some big catches. Keyshawn James-Newby and Brett Karhu will likely sack Lindsey at least a couple of times. Minnesota may have a tough time running the ball, and I am unsure their screen game will have much effect. This game is as losable as it is winnable. It might take just a couple of bounces for a very flawed Minnesota team to end their eight-game streak of bowl wins.

Score prediction: Minnesota 21-17 New Mexico

Stats note: SP+ and Second-order Record via Bill Connelly of ESPN. Points/Drive and Yards/Play via Brian Fremeau. Success Rate and Explosiveness via CFB_Data. General stats via NCAA, ESPN, and Sports-Reference. Where possible, rankings in various stats are through conference championships.