Previewing Virginia Tech

Overview

Record: 6-6 (4-4, 8th in Atlantic Coast Conference)

"Second-order" Record: 7.1-5.9

SP+ Overall Rank: 24th

If it feels like Virginia Tech has stagnated over the last decade and change, it's because they kind of have. Since 2012, this once prominent program has won eight or more games just three times, finishing now seven regular seasons at 6-6. Head coach Brent Pry, a former Frank Beamer graduate assistant and as Appalachian a man as they come, arrested the late slide of Justin Fuente's tenure but has subsequently only spun his wheels. His program recruits like a middle-of the road ACC team and so far plays like it.

The Hokies' stats largely justify their record, showing a little bit of talent but a fair amount of averageness and some outright problems, particularly with passing and defending the pass. While it takes some bad luck to go 0-5 in one-score games, Pry is still looking for a signature win. By the Massey Composite, the best team the Hokies beat in 2024 was No. 38 Georgia Tech.

The week after the first National Signing Day, Pry fired three coaches, including defensive coordinator Chris Marve (whom he coached at Vanderbilt). A handful of starters have announced their intentions to transfer, and others still are sitting out the bowl against Minnesota to protect their NFL Draft stock or recover from injuries. These departures may tilt what most projection systems consider a coin flip the Gophers' way.

Offense

Quarterback Kyron Drones had a difficult season, missing three games because of injuries and averaging just 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Drones looks doubtful to appear in Charlotte. Redshirt freshman William "Pop" Watson III, one of two players who filled in for Drones during the year, is the presumed starter over redshirt senior Collin Schlee.

Watson made his first meaningful college appearance against Duke, relieving an injured Schlee after a quarter. After Watson had a decent couple of drives, the Blue Devils sacked him seven times. Pressure was often immediate, but he also had opportunities to throw the ball away.

Shortly after this sack, Watson threw an interception on a quick out to the opposite sideline. He finished 12-for-25 for 146 yards.

Against a weaker Virginia defense, he had more success. While his 5-foot-11, 190-pound frame means it is vital he avoid hits, and he does not always run with that in mind, Watson is shifty enough to make defenders miss. He showed this on both designed runs and while scrambling.

Watson is a work in progress as a passer. In the UVA game, he looked comfortable in the pocket and rolling out, looking to pass first and not take off sooner than necessary. At the same time, as shown above, he does not always know when to give up on a play.

Playcaller Tyler Bowen has been careful with Watson but has let him go farther downfield in moments. His arm strength shows up inconsistently: He can deliver a strike over the middle or to the sticks on the sideline, but sometimes the ball just does not get there very quickly. He had three long completions against Virginia. One was trackable for an open receiver but underthrown. Another was perfect.

With only two games of data against substantially different levels of opponent, it is hard to see just what level of threat Watson presents the Gophers. There is clearly something here, however.

The Hokies do run a little more than most teams, which suits their quarterback room — expect Watson to take the ball on draws and power — but in Bhayshul Tuten, they have an excellent tailback. Or, rather, they had one: Tuten is one of a handful of seniors we know will not play. Malachi Thomas and Jeremiah Coney will team up to fill Tuten's shoes, having taken just 67 carries in the regular season.

A favorite way to run the ball is on a version of the trap concept called wham. On this play, the offensive line leaves the opponent's backside tackle unblocked, allowing him into the backfield for just a moment before a late-arriving tight end takes him out of the play.

This design allows the line to immediately climb to the second level. Rather than double-teaming, the center and backside guard can engage the linebackers and create a lane up the middle.

The Hokies pull their blockers often. You can see this on classic gap runs like the Packers sweep (also called pin and pull), setting up Chris Ault read option staples like Slice and Bluff, or on handoffs to receivers Jaylin Lane and Ayden Greene. Drones ran some triple option, but Schlee and Watson did not do so as much.

In the passing game, pullers help sell play-action. Defenders get their keys from what happens up front, and if they see movement, they think "run." With everyone's eyes in the backfield, you can sneak a player into the secondary and get a chunk play.

Virginia Tech's passing attack is generally more horizontal than vertical, however, breaking up the quick game with occasional shots downfield. They often use motion to get a receiver moving quickly into the flat, draw attention to one side of the field, or help open space up for another target.

The Hokies almost exclusively play out of shotgun, with three receivers and a tight end on nearly every snap. Sometimes, they add a second running back, and in some situations, you may see tight ends Benji Gosnell and Harrison Saint Germain both at the end of the line. The Hokies seldom go heavier.

About 70 percent of Gosnell and Lane's targets have been within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage or behind it, per Pro Football Focus. If Watson goes deep, it will probably be to the 6-foot-5-inch Da'Quan Felton,  Stephen Gosnell, or Ali Jennings. Long-developing plays often end in a checkdown or a scramble, suggesting the receiving corps has a hard time getting open.

The Hokies don't have much of a traditional dropback passing game in part because of issues up front. As much as inconsistency at quarterback held them back throughout the year, the line earned plenty of blame as well. The situation may get worse after two starters transferred — left tackle Xavier Chaplin (Auburn) and center Braelin Moore (LSU) — and right guard Kaden Moore opted out of the bowl. Redshirt sophomores Johnny Garrett and Brody Meadows will plug two of the holes, having played significant roles in the fall, and redshirt freshman Caleb Nitta is probably the choice at center. Nitta has played just 11 college snaps.

Garrett allowed a pressure on 8.3 percent of his pass blocking snaps, according to PFF — the 39th-worst mark among more than 300 FBS tackles with 100-plus pass blocking snaps. Right tackle Parker Clements' 6.1-percent mark is much closer to average but still on the high end. Anthony Smith and Danny Striggow cannot rush Watson too aggressively, as overrunning the pocket will allow him to break free, but they should be favored on the outside.

Minnesota's defense may be missing Justin Walley and Jah Joyner but still will probably present Watson's most difficult opposition yet. Eye discipline, collapsing the pocket, and sound tackling will keep the Virginia Tech offense in check.

Defense

At a glance, Virginia Tech's defense was the team's better half in 2024, yet it was this unit's coordinator that lost his job. Bud Foster, who was coordinator under Beamer and Fuente, will temporarily come out of retirement to assist the staff with Friday's game, but his exact role is unspecified. Foster may or may not call the defense.

While the Hokies boast the nation's 6th-lowest completion rate allowed and a killer pass rush, they spent this season completely hemorrhaging when an opposing receiver caught the ball. How the Hokies contain a highly efficient but low-ceiling Gophers passing attack may well determine the game.

Tech will be shorthanded. Boundary safety Mose Phillips III and cornerback Monsoor Delane transferred to Missouri and LSU, leaving the Hokies without two of their three leaders in defensive snaps. Keonta Jenkins, who plays the hybrid "Star" position in the slot, will not participate in what would have been his last college game. Jenkins made 10.0 tackles for loss and broke up four passes.

Of the defensive backs who will be in Charlotte, corner Dorian Strong and safety Jaylen Jones are the two regular starters. Having started at least four years every season of his college career, Strong is a reliable veteran on the field side. Jones transitioned from receiver last season, and in the Hokies' first few games of 2024, he had noticeable issues. While still not an extraordinary player, Jones looked more capable in the final stretch.

In Phillips, Delane, and Jenkins' places, Tech will play a trio of underclassmen. True freshman safety Quentin Reddish, true sophomore cornerback Dante Lovett, and redshirt sophomore Star Kaleb Spencer rotated into games plenty. Nevertheless, the absences at the top of the lineup stretch this secondary's depth. Minnesota would be wise to test its less experienced players.

The Hokies are not exclusively a single-high team but favor those coverages. They may show a two-high shell but transition into Cover 1 or Cover 3, turning one of their deep safeties into the "Robber" over the middle.

When in Cover 1, which safety has center field and which is in man coverage is usually determined by the offensive formation. The Hokies want to match the numbers on each side. The Star (again, their slot defender) lines up on the field side on most downs. If the offense's strong side is to the Star, then typically the field safety will need to come down and play man. If the strong side is away from the Star, towards the boundary, then the field safety drops out, and the boundary safety comes down.

You can see here, when a tight end goes from the field to the boundary side, how the defense passes that assignment over:

I am surely missing some key part of their rules, and sometimes a defender will track a motioning receiver across the formation rather than handing him off, but that is a basic enough way of looking at it.

This can serve as a tell to Max Brosmer when the Hokies are in man, as the Gophers use a lot of motion and shifts. Old friend Kirk Ciarrocca also found a couple ways of exploiting how hard it is for the rotating safety to get into the flat, especially if you draw his attention with play-action. The first was targeting the motion man himself:

The second was using motion to clear the safety from the box and sneak another receiver into open space.

This is how Virginia Tech is so all-or-nothing in pass defense: Well-executed man coverage is hard to beat, but it isolates defenders. An opposing offense can manipulate their assignments to get favorable matchups, and completing a pass could mean a big play. Missing so many key players against Minnesota, this secondary could be even more combustible.

All-American defensive end Antwaun Powell-Ryland has nothing more to prove in college, but there has been no indication of his status. Powell-Ryland finished 3rd in FBS with 16.0 sacks, making him easily the Hokies' most important defender. Though he is a little undersized to hold the edge at the NFL level, being a smidge shorter than opposing blockers may actually help him dip under the arms of his blocker and get to the quarterback.

Minnesota's task, especially considering they will be without offensive tackles Phillip Daniels and (probably) Aireontae Ersery, becomes a lot easier if Powell-Ryland does not play.

On the interior of the line is Aeneas Peebles, who is a serious threat in his own right. He plays with a great motor and fires off the ball. At times, he gets overzealous and takes himself out of a play, but he just as easily can wreck a play. The All-ACC selection finished the regular season with 7.0 tackles for loss and, per PFF, recorded 35 pressures. Peebles is also out of eligibility after the bowl game, so whether he sits out this game is also a fair question.

Tech's other defensive linemen are not as impactful. Tackles Kevin Gilliam Jr. and Wilfried Pene are just fine players. I would assess the linebacker corps similarly, though I saw fewer errors from Caleb Woodson than Jaden Keller. Neither is a major playmaker. Against read option, the Hokies frequently play a scrape exchange, allowing their ends to crash into the backfield and having the linebackers take the quarterback, but I do not imagine that should come up much with Brosmer in the game.

Even as Minnesota has shifted into a pass-first West Coast offense and struggled to consistently run the ball, their opponents often have paid Darius Taylor a lot of respect. Virginia Tech's run defense is generally their strong suit, so they should be able to slow Taylor down without committing extra numbers into the box. The coordinator change and departures at the back may also mean the Hokies play more zone, asking less of their young defensive backs and trying to limit explosive plays.

In other words, it is difficult to tell exactly what version of this defense we will see. But I am inclined to think that, especially if their two best players sit out, the Gophers should have the advantage.

Special Teams

Virginia Tech's special teams unit ranks a solid if unspectacular 35th in SP+, which seems about right. Placekicker John Love has had a highly effective season, missing just two field goals all year (from 33 and 55 yards) and converting every extra point attempt. Peter Moore ranks as a good but not elite punter across any stat: distance, net yardage, return rate, hang time. Opponents' kick returns have produced no scores and average a very middling 19.1 yards. Thomas Williams has not scored on a kickoff return and averages 19.0 yards himself. The Hokies have blocked two field goal attempts, which is typical; and allowed four blocked field goals or punts, which is slightly concerning. Beamer Ball this is not, but it is a perfectly fine part of the team.

Final Thoughts

The team that wins a bowl game is often the one that is less depleted. That seemingly favors Minnesota: Most of their regular starters are playing, including their starting quarterback. Those we can guess are not playing are mostly covered by trustworthy regulars. I would probably favor the Gophers if both teams were at full strength, but in these circumstances, I definitely do.

Score prediction: Minnesota 27-17 Virginia Tech

Stats note: SP+ and Second-order Record via Bill Connelly of ESPN. Points/Drive and Yards/Play via Brian Fremeau. Success Rate and Explosiveness via CFB_Data. General stats via NCAA, ESPN, and Sports-Reference. Where possible, rankings in various stats are through conference championships.