Seven Things I Think I Learned about the Gophers in Their First Three Games

Minnesota has made it to the end of their non-conference schedule in pretty good shape. Setting aside an injury scare at cornerback and a toss-up defeat in the opener, the team has given reason for optimism: competence from transfers, clear steps forward from their young defense, and a few big plays from underclassmen.

September is also the most confusing time to be a college football fan. How much should early results shake us from our priors? Good teams take care of business against bad ones, but can we really expect that to translate when the schedule gets harder? What schematic shifts will we not know about until coaches are in the games that really count? It's the hot take part of the season, where it seems everyone is wildly overconfident in their team or convinced of their doom.

Overreactions are part of the fun to some people, but I try to take a tempered approach to the early season. The season is so short that we cannot say we really know much until at least the midway point, if not later. And the games can turn on such random events that a win or a loss can distract us from the specifics of a game and lead us to false conclusions. At the same time, these first few weeks do not mean nothing. They might tell us the wrong things sometimes, but not without traces of truth.

In the spirit of interrogating we know and do not know, I present some things I think the 2024 Golden Gophers have taught me about who they are. Some of these items are observations rather than prognostications, but even the former can be proven at least partly wrong later. We'll just have to check back in a couple of months to see where I am mistaken.

Max Brosmer has stabilized the quarterback position the way the Gophers hoped, with caveats.

For whatever tweaks different players or coordinators have introduced, the Minnesota offense has never asked a ton out of its quarterback. At its highest-functioning, a capable band of skill players and a strong offensive line can lead the way — as long as a steady hand is at the wheel, that is.

The rushing attack needs space that will not be there if defenses do not fear the pass. A star receiver can only do so much if the ball is over his head or going to the other team. The Gophers cannot plug in just anyone and field a balanced, effective offense. See the examples of Conor Rhoda and Demry Croft, Cole Kramer, and of course Athan Kaliakmanis. Kaliakmanis had some ability but lacked consistency, and in his redshirt sophomore season he averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt.

With Kaliakmanis off to Rutgers, the new quarterback is Max Brosmer. Brosmer's output so far affirms preseason expectations. When he is on his game, Brosmer is a rhythmic passer who is on time with his receivers and very willing to find the checkdown if needed. He has a quick release and can apply just the right combination of touch and velocity to hit intermediate throws.

At the same time, Brosmer's lack of upside is evident. When he breaks the pocket, he commits to the run instead of waiting for his receivers to get open on the scramble drill. This means he does not force a throw that isn't there but usually means trading any chance at a big play for a marginal gain.

He also does not offer a lot of explosiveness as a passer. Pro Football Focus has charted just 9 percent of Brosmer's targets as being at least 20 yards downfield. His one interception was a long ball, granting that Christian Driver didn't track it properly. There is no qualifying this overshot post to Daniel Jackson, though:

I am willing to at least partially attribute Brosmer's mixed performance against North Carolina to typical Week 1 weirdness, but it fits with the larger body of work: A Brosmer-led offense probably does not have a high ceiling. A quarterback who avoids turnovers and makes the easy plays at least sets a respectable floor. To beat the class of the Big Ten and make sure the Gophers make a bowl, Brosmer will need to provide at least a few moments of something extra.

The Minnesota offensive line is... maybe okay?

I am confident that this is not an elite line nor a terrible one, but it is hard to place exactly where between those extremes they fall. Sometimes they do well, sometimes they do poorly, and sometimes they get a bad result that is not exactly their fault.

We'll start on that last point. As P.J. Fleck has noted, opponents know that Minnesota likes to run the ball, especially in the red zone. They therefore commit more numbers to the line of scrimmage. To wit:

NFL stats suggest that box count is perhaps the greatest determinant of rushing success, but you do not even need that detail to understand that the more defenders occupy an area, the harder it is to run into that area. Talent on the line and at running back — which the Gophers do have — can only do so much.

How can an offense lighten the box, then? The most obvious way is to establish the pass. To the Gophers' credit, they have actually tried to do this more than in past seasons to get Brosmer in a groove. As covered, he is doing a fine enough job, though if he can hit a couple deep passes, it will keep the safeties more honest and create a little more room.

Another way is to rely on lighter personnel. With more wideouts on the field, a defense must play more defensive backs, who are not as good at stopping the run as linemen and linebackers. This is not a big problem for Minnesota, however. They play almost exclusively out of 11 and 12 personnel, which keeps defenses from going too heavy. While I find it bizarre that going four-wide remains apparently a bridge too far for them, and while I will argue further down that they should actually use multiple running backs more, I do not have a serious complaint here.

Where I do have an issue is how the Gophers arrange that personnel. Tight formations are a valuable tool in any offense, as clusters of receivers make it harder for defenses to identify assignments and track crossing routes. But they also attract more bodies to the middle of the field.

Here, North Carolina was in nickel, with five defensive backs, but they had eight players within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. In response to Frank Bierman's motion, they had six players on the line by the snap. Linebacker Power Echols shot into the backfield from the edge before Jameson Geers could pull across for the block.

Even in more regular looks, the Gophers' receivers can take rather narrow splits, lining up sort of wide but not much farther from the ball than the opposite hash.

With more spread formations, playcaller Greg Harbaugh can spread out the defense and therefore make life easier for the offensive line. So can the team's receivers by generating more separation, and of course so can Brosmer by getting the ball out more quickly than he did against UNC in particular. With increased checks at the line, the Gophers could also get out of runs when it looks like a disadvantageous situation.

At the same time, the players on the line can improve. Pressures and sacks have come more from individual errors and lost one-on-ones than unit-wide mistakes, so I think (but cannot be certain) that the newcomer Brosmer and new center Greg Johnson are doing a fine job of reading fronts and communicating with the rest of the line. The left side of the line remains solid between experienced guard Tyler Cooper and star tackle Aireontae Ersery.

The biggest concerns are on the other side. Early in the Rhode Island game, right tackle Martes Lewis was benched. Ashton Beers took over at guard, and Quinn Carroll slid over to Lewis' place. According to PFF, Beers has allowed two pressures on 64 opportunities, which is way better than Lewis' rate of six in 38, but Beers is playing an easier position for pass protection. His overall play has looked spotty, which is not unexpected for his first time in a significant role. Meanwhile, even if Carroll is evidently the team's best option at right tackle, he has shown before that he is a far better run blocker than pass protector. Defenses may attack these two aggressively with the blitz.

This unit faces huge tests over the next two weeks. How they fare could tell us a lot about where this season ultimately goes.

Minnesota seemingly views their depth at running back as only that: depth.

These Gophers have 10 running backs, the most on any roster of the Fleck era. This led me to expect two tactical shifts this season: expanded use of two-back sets and increased rotation and specialization at the position. Neither has happened.

To the first point: Over the last three seasons, the Gophers played two running backs (including in the Wildcat) on 1.2 percent of their snaps. In 2024, they have done so on 2.7 percent — or five out of 188 snaps. This is not a meaningful change. That said, Harbaugh has dropped a few crumbs of things we might see in conference play, like Taylor lining up in the slot.

But players further down the depth chart do not have roles at all. Darius Taylor, Marcus Major, and Jordan Nubin account for 87 percent of running back carries so far. With the score 27-0 against Nevada, Taylor kept getting the ball into the late fourth quarter. Jaren Mangham and Sieh Bangura's first touches came when the Rhode Island and Nevada games were out of reach. In the I-formation, tight end Frank Bierman played fullback. It looks like Mangham, Bangura, and those behind them are here as cover for injury rather than to contribute regularly.

This would be a waste. Spelling Taylor will reduce his exposure to hits and keep him fresh for later in the season. While he is a tough runner, Mangham could take some of his carries in short-yardage situations. While Nubin is strong in pass protection, Bangura has a greater track record of catching passes and can be a useful 3rd-down back. Different combinations of players can create difficult reads for defenses or allow the Gophers to introduce new concepts, like the triple option. If Harbaugh was not just keeping some wrinkles off of film during non-conference play, the Gophers will be squandering a potential advantage if they cannot incorporate their backup tailbacks more.

Gopher defenders may not make the first tackle, but they will make plays through sheer numbers.

One-on-one tackles are important. Against offenses that stretch the field horizontally or against explosive players, not making those tackles can cost you big-time. The Minnesota has shown in breaking down and making tackles on the perimeter will come back to bite them at some point if they are not fixed.

Still, the speed at which the Gophers rally to the ball ensures that their misses do not frequently lead to big plays. This includes quick passes to the sideline, like screens and swings, and also runs that the defensive line has strung out and given linebackers and safeties time to clean up. The following play was meant for the right B-gap, but the combination of Deven Eastern forcing a stalemate with the center and Maverick Baranowski and Cody Lindenberg tracking the play forced a cutback. Though Jaxon Howard couldn't make the play, Coleman Bryson and Aidan Gousby were in position to finish it off.

See also this example against North Carolina. Omarion Hampton, one of the top power backs in college football, made the Gophers' lives difficult but did not go on any back-breaking runs, averaging only 4.3 yards per carry. Danny Striggow and Ethan Robinson (who has otherwise been a valuable addition) missed the initial tackle, but the quick-acting Baranowski and Lindenberg combined for the TFL — with additional support in the area.

This kind of play will be vital in the next couple of weeks in particular, facing the explosive Kaleb Johnson of Iowa and the hulking Kalel Mullings of Michigan.

Obviously, the offenses they have faced have not been high-quality, but you can only play the teams on your schedule. Filtering out garbage time, the Minnesota defense has allowed the 5th-lowest success rate in FBS and ranks 28th-best in CFB_Data's explosiveness metric. They have not allowed a touchdown since early in the second quarter of the North Carolina game. Even if they are due for regression against Big Ten opponents, the Gophers have clearly demonstrated improvement on defense and shown last year's setback was just temporary.

The safety positions will be by-committee in 2024.

Five different safeties played with the first-team defense in the first three weeks. Other positions have seen similar rotation: Special teamers like Matt Kingsbury and Eli Mau have seen the field at linebacker, and both Lucas Finnessy and Howard have rotated in at rush end.

However, the rotation at the back seems more permanent. Minnesota has toyed with fielding three safeties at once (see below). Three of them saw significant time against North Carolina while the most experienced of the lot, Darius Green, was injured. The two freshmen who are likely lowest in the pecking order, Kerry Brown and Koi Perich, have shown enough to force their way onto the field somehow. Everyone will probably get involved throughout the year.

Notably, all five players have eligibility after this season. With the impending departure of nickelback Jack Henderson, three of them could be starters in 2025. They are all getting experience in the slot or in the box, so moving down to the line would be a natural transition.

Koi Perich is fun.

As much I like to consume football and other sports as a nerd, I would not be here in the first place if it did not entertain me. We can intellectualize football as much as we want, but it is a piece of entertainment. It is cool to watch elite athletes compete in a venue of several thousands of people.

We have not seen Perich perform many great feats, but there is a buzz in the stands when he is on the field. He is the second-highest-rated Minnesota signing in the internet era, and the fans know that is a big deal. While Perich only covered kicks in the opener, he got to make his mark in the Rhode Island and Nevada games with an interception and a few punt returns where he was this close to breaking off a big one. His dynamism is obvious, and you get the sense he is going to make a game-swinging play at some point this season — and in seasons to come. That is tremendously exciting.

The Gophers have changed up their third-down package.

Under former defensive coordinator Joe Rossi, Minnesota typically swapped out multiple defensive linemen on 3rd-and-medium-to-long. A trio of ends — usually two rush ends and one 5-technique, but it varied depending on how good each position was in a given season — and a single tackle filled the four spots up front to bring a little more speed to the pass rush. It looked like this:

Click to enlarge.

In addition, the Gophers often used different linebacker combinations. In 2021, for example, Mariano Sori-Marin would leave the field for Donald Willis, whom Rossi liked as a coverage and blitzing option next to Jack Gibbens. But these were the only alterations to personnel.

Out of this look, Rossi ran a mix of single-high and two-high coverages. Here is an example of the latter, Cover 6 with a twist on the interior of the line.

In his first month as Rossi's successor, Corey Hetherman has retained aspects of that strategy. Three ends and a tackle still make the front four. But rather than stay in Minnesota's 4-2-5 base, Hetherman subs off a linebacker for an extra safety, creating a dime package. At the same time, the standard nickelback, a hybrid player, goes off for an extra cornerback. With six defensive backs on the field, including three corners, Minnesota has more speed in coverage.

Hetherman has leaned towards single-high looks. That includes Cover 1, where the underneath defenders are all in man coverage, which will be easier for a box safety than a linebacker. Having one of the two regular safeties lurk over the middle as the "robber" provides some help closer to the line to gain.

Rossi at times called some aggressive and elaborate blitzes for the rush package, especially for his more experienced defenses. Here, one of the rush ends stands over the B-gap showing blitz, creating sort of a 3-3-5 presentation, and the other rush end drops off to spy the quarterback. The Will linebacker, meanwhile, is man-to-man with the tailback, which means he can also rush if the back stays in the pocket for protection.

In action, it looks like this:

Note: In order to keep the boundary and field sides consistent between all diagrams,
the designs on them may be flipped from how the actual plays look.

We have not seen much of this from Hetherman's defense. Out of dime, he has relied on simulated pressures — showing blitz but keeping in coverage some or all of the defenders walked up to the line.

To illustrate this, we can compare the two coordinators' use of a particular front, the "double-mug" over the A-gaps that Mike Zimmer used to great effect with the Vikings. Rossi did not deploy it that much, but you can find designs like this watching old games:

With the confusion the double-mug alignment creates, it opens up a lane for a late blitzer that can justify the risk of dropping a pair of rush ends into coverage. The quarterback has to get the ball out sooner than he wants, increasing the chance of an inaccurate or ill-advised throw.

Hetherman has so far used this front as, well, just a front, walking a pair of players into the A-gaps just to drop back into traditional coverage. When executed properly, this closes space that a quarterback expected to be open and muddies his read. The four down linemen subsequently have time to get home.

On 23 dime package snaps, Hetherman has sent more than four rushers only five times. The threat of pressure pre-snap and the difficulty of quickly identifying pressure post-snap can still create havoc.

Early results are fantastic. Per CFB_Data, Minnesota has allowed the 3rd-lowest success rate in FBS on passing downs. When opponents have faced 3rd-and-long — and they average 7.3 yards to go — it has been a hopeless situation.

I do expect Hetherman to bring greater numbers in the future. Against North Carolina, he sent five or more rushers more often on 3rd down than he did in the less competitive games — even if it is worth noting how relentlessly the Gophers blitzed Nevada's Brendon Lewis in other situations. These first few weeks have at least shown us pieces of how Hetherman will differ from Rossi.