2024 Gophers Season Preview

Most coaches don't last this long. A majority don't make it even half this long. For all his game management issues, for as many of his players transfer every year, and for the amount he keeps his name on the market for other jobs (whether as a leverage play or to actually leave), P.J. Fleck has made it to an eighth season as Minnesota's head football coach. Just four men have held this job longer than him; two have their names on buildings, and another has his name on the locker room in the stadium. (The fourth pops up on the Big Ten Network every once in a while.)

Fleck has given the Gophers their best season since Lyndon Johnson was president, ended losing prolonged losing streaks to Wisconsin and Iowa (not that he didn't contribute heavily to the latter), and brought in the program's best recruiting classes of the internet era.

Yet his tenure has been plagued by big questions, posed with varying degrees of fairness: If he took more risks, would the Gophers have won the West before divisions went away and the conference became harder? Can he identify a reliable quarterback? If he has another breakthrough season, how quickly does he head for the exit? How much of his success has been because of Joe Rossi, who is now at Michigan State? Does he have to be this way?

After seven years, Fleck may for the first time face the threat of losing his job. Making a bowl on a technicality once is a forgivable outcome, just a normal trough in the cycle of a fine but not elite college football program. Two successive sub-.500 finishes would at the very least test the patience of the fan base, and depending on the circumstances, could justify Fleck's dismissal. His buyout drops to $5 million on January 1, which is not insignificant but in the era of super-conference television contracts is not prohibitive either, even while considering the decent chance that athletic director Mark Coyle has to find a new men's basketball coach next spring. Five wins would not guarantee Coyle makes a move, but could one call Fleck definitely safe in that situation?

Fleck has, to his credit, constructed a roster with potential. Maybe this year is just middling, but there are intriguing young players in several areas: a brilliant starting tailback who is still a true sophomore; three blue-chip offensive linemen in their first or second year of college; athletic wide receivers who should play supporting roles in 2024 but will take on more responsibility in future seasons; a couple of a pair of highly touted edge rushers; ascendant linebackers; a safety from just a couple hours up I-35 who looks like a future star. This goes without mentioning the four-star quarterback committed to next year's recruiting class. The pieces are here to build to something greater a year or two down the line.

To do that, however, Fleck must re-establish Minnesota right now as a stable, competitive team that will not throw away games late, serve as chum for the helmet schools, or look like a wreck against a worse team due to an unfavorable matchup. If the prospects are ahead of schedule, he can pull it off and regain the fans base's trust. If they still need time, and the team's veterans cannot pick up the slack, Coyle might be asking another big question about his coach: Can someone do this job better than Fleck?

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From this point on, you will find a more straightforward preview of the Gophers' season. For each area of the team — offense, defense, special teams — I've linked the position previews I published over the last few weeks and offer a predicted depth chart. I also ask 10 big questions facing the 2024 Gophers, divided between the three units.

Offense

Position previews: receivers and tight ends ・ running backs ・ quarterbacks ・ offensive line

Predicted depth chart:

Click to enlarge any image in this post.

Around better weapons, will Max Brosmer show he has another gear?

Fleck bet on a high-upside quarterback in Athan Kaliakmanis, and it never clicked. Max Brosmer does not have Kaliakmanis' physical abilities, but he has an impressive track record from his days at New Hampshire and should offer a higher floor. If that is all he offers, then the Gophers' offense will be steadier. If Brosmer can be any more than that, he could give them a genuine chance to beat one or two of the tougher teams on their schedule.

What impact will Brosmer's secondary options have?

Of course, the U of M's offensive ceiling will probably not be down to their quarterback, who is at his best in the short and intermediate parts of the field. It likely will not even be down to Daniel Jackson, the star wideout trying to earn conference honors and move up NFL draft boards. To seriously threaten other teams, Le'Meke Brockington, Elijah Spencer, and the underclassmen supporting them will need to make plays and take opponents' attention away from Jackson.

How will Minnesota deploy their expanded running back group?

Darius Taylor is the most obvious weapon at this team's disposal. He cannot take on 30 carries per game over a full season. By the sounds of it, Fleck has already taken a liking to Oklahoma transfer Marcus Major, but Sieh Bangura, Jaren Mangham, and Jordan Nubin will have to play their parts as well. Getting a couple of them (and maybe Zander Rockow as a fullback?) onto the field at the same time could present challenging looks for opposing defenses and open up room for the passing game.

How does Greg Johnson handle the transition to center?

Center is one of the hardest, most important jobs in football, and the Gophers have given it to a true sophomore. However much one believes in Greg Johnson's long-term potential — and I am a firm believer — it would not be a surprise if he takes time to make the position his. How soon he does will have a major effect on the offensive line's communication and effectiveness.

Defense

Position previews: defensive line ・ linebackers ・ secondary

Predicted depth chart:

Are these defensive tackles sturdy enough to clog holes?

Deven Eastern faces a challenge moving from 3-technique to nose tackle. Jalen Logan-Redding was a solid contain defender on the edge but is a little slim compared to the guards and centers of the Big Ten. The lumbering Logan Richter and limber Darnell Jefferies are veterans but not impact subs. This set of players should be fine for most games, but against the most bruising offensive lines, keeping their linebackers clean and stuffing runs may be too great a challenge.

How much have Maverick Baranowski and Devon Williams improved?

A year ago, Minnesota's young linebackers provided genuine reason for optimism and also made plenty of mistakes. Cody Lindenberg's full return to the lineup will give the whole defense a boost but likely benefit Maverick Baranowski and Devon Williams more than anyone. If they can put last year's lessons to use and take a leap forward, they could be one of the top linebacking duos in the conference headed into 2025.

Can whoever fills the back end offer stability, if not the playmaking of past Gopher safeties?

Darius Green is a hard-hitting safety but has to be smarter and more fundamentally sound. Coleman Bryson has shown glimpses of a real player but not yet put everything together. Koi Perich is one of the Gophers' most exciting prospects in years, but a true freshman is a true freshman. Kerry Brown and Aidan Gousby have taken their lumps in spot-duty or on special teams, which could be growing pains or a bad sign. All five should all step into the fire this season. Whoever makes it through will have earned invaluable experience — and probably will have gotten burned a few times in the process.

If Minnesota's cornerback depth is tested, will it hold up?

The Gophers should feel comfortable with Justin Walley and Ethan Robinson starting at cornerback. The two of them cannot play every snap, though. Experience is more important here than maybe anywhere else in college football, and Za'Quan Bryan and Rhyland Kelly are far from seasoned. Should they have to do more than just get their feet wet in 2024, opponents may have a clear weak link to target.

Special Teams

Position preview

Predicted depth chart:

Can Quentin Redding (or someone else) bring consistency to the return game?

Quentin Redding has operated on a cycle: He gets the green light to return kicks or punts, then fails to do anything with it, then momentarily is given a red light, only to make a big return that restores the coaches' faith until he has another unsuccessful return or two. Redding is a redshirt junior at this point and needs to put Minnesota in better field position if he is going to be the team's primary returner. If he cannot, other players will have the same mandate.

What effect will coordinator Bob Ligashesky have?

Fans and some media overstated a bit Minnesota's problems on special teams under Rob Wenger. Yes, the kicking game was ineffective for while. Yes, there was sporadic wackiness, such as the saga of no returner being able to securely field a kickoff or punt. However, the kicking game improved, and in general, the U of M had an okay special teams unit. Advanced metrics like SP+ rated it fairly well. The Gophers repeatedly won the field position battle in 2021 and 2022.

Even so: There were indeed problems. Hiring a dedicated special teams coordinator, especially one with such extensive experience like Bob Ligashesky, could go a long way to reducing those adventures, creating a threat on returns, and maybe even developing specialists.

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Schedule

Note on the above: The Massey Composite is an aggregation of several different computer ratings and polls attempting to capture consensus. The final Composite ranking from last season included 77 different rankings. ESPN's Football Power Index is one of the systems included in the Composite. FPI's probabilities for every game are posted online in the preseason, which despite its flaws (such as being high on Rutgers) means it is useful for our purposes.

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North Carolina normally publishes a depth chart, but since it's Week 1, and P.J. Fleck's staff has not issued a depth chart in six years, Mack Brown has chosen not to put one out before the opener. But he has expressed confidence in both Connor Harrell and Max Johnson. Brown answered reporters' questions on the subject with acrobatic feats of college-coach doublespeak, refusing to confirm or deny a single starter or a two-quarterback system.

Harrell started in Drake Maye's place in the bowl game and had a mixed performance, throwing a couple of gorgeous sideline passes and a couple of brutal picks, and looking unsettled in the pocket but dangerous in the open field. Such are the ups and downs of a then-redshirt freshman.

Johnson has two years of eligibility after arriving from Texas A&M (with his younger brother, the highly rated tight end Jake Johnson). He took a battering behind the A&M offensive line, breaking his hand in 2022 and then his ribs in 2023. Some of that damage was self-inflicted, admittedly. Johnson is a fearless runner but not always a smart one, diving forward into hits — and fumbles — instead of stepping out of bounds or sliding.

But when kept clean, Johnson is an effective college quarterback, likely the second- or third-best Minnesota will face this season. At his best, he patiently reads the field and can expertly layer passes over the defense.

The Tar Heels' problem will be the "kept clean" part. Their offensive line did Maye no favors last year. One might consider it a good thing that the only returning starter is All-ACC selection Willie Lampkin at right guard, but just about completely resetting the offensive line does not often yield positive results.

We will see what effect this has on UNC's rushing attack, which was again quite strong last season. Unlike the receiving corps, which is mostly changed, the running back room keeps its main character, Doak Walker Award finalist Omarion Hampton. Hampton was fairly quiet against the Gophers last September but torched the back end of the Heels' schedule, racking up 1,079 all-purpose yards over a six-game run. According to Pro Football Focus, Hampton led FBS in yards after contact, owing to his toughness, balance, and acceleration after taking a hit.

The UNC defense returns six of 11 starters. The most important incumbent is rush end Kaimon Rucker, who made 15.0 tackles for loss (8.5 sacks) and earned all-conference honors last season. He and power end Desmond Evans will need help picking up the run defense, though, after some depth graduations and the departure of do-everything linebacker Cedric Gray. The Heels were below average across the board in advanced rushing statistics: 125th in stuff rate, 113th in line yards per carry, 69th in success rate, 81st in explosiveness. If they improve under new coordinator Geoff Collins, it will not be quickly enough for the Gophers to not exploit this weakness.

While the secondary lost some key pieces, it does have an essence of continuity. Corner Marcus Allen enters his second year as a starter, and at nickel, the Tar Heels will have two veteran options in DeAndre Boykins (who missed 2023 with an injury) and Alizah Huzzie. Huzzie may actually kick outside, with former four-star Kaleb Cost stepping into the slot. Antavious Lane got plenty of playing time as the third safety last season, and Will Hardy and NC State grad-transfer Jakeen Harris could combine to be an adequate partner for him. I do not expect the UNC pass defense to be better than mediocre, but they can make incremental improvements while slowly integrating recent blue-chip signings.

What does this all mean for Thursday? First, the Gophers need a big performance from their front six. If they can pressure Johnson (and maybe sometimes Harrell) without being vulnerable to the scramble, that will force a lot of long downs, take pressure off the secondary, and hopefully lessen Hampton's impact. And, of course, when Hampton gets the ball, the Gophers must swarm and prevent him from breaking into the open field. It is a big test for Corey Hetherman in his first game as defensive coordinator.

Greg Harbaugh Jr., meanwhile, could be without Darius Taylor and maybe even Daniel Jackson. That complicates any gameplan, but the team is supposed to have cover for each, especially at running back. It would not be the worst idea to test the UNC front, in particular whichever underclassman starts at linebacker next to Power Echols. This is not a "run the bawwwl" kind of night, but the ground game can lead the way if Max Brosmer and his receivers do enough to keep the defense honest.

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Rhode Island has not made the FCS playoffs since 1985. It is the kind of program that would retain head coach Jim Fleming after he started his soon-to-be-11-year tenure by going 7-38, let him rebound to 6-5, and then keep him around after a 2-10 season one year later. Somehow, that patience has paid off, as the Rams have strung together three consecutive winning seasons.

Fleming got four years out of a power-conference quarterback transfer, Kasim Hill (remember him?), so he went back to that well to find a successor. Devin Farrell, a flexbone quarterback in high school who spent 2022 at Virginia Tech, was the backup last season and even threw a touchdown pass on one of his three attempts. Hunter Helms, meanwhile, had sporadic mop-up duties at Clemson after arriving as a walk-on in 2020. He earned a scholarship while there and graduated in just three years. I expect Helms to start.

Only one of URI's four leading pass-catchers, spindly redshirt sophomore Marquis Buchanan, returns from last season. Iowa State transfer Greg Gaines III arrives to pick up the slack, and Rian Black and Omari Walker will step into the lineup after their arrivals from Coastal Carolina and Arkansas State a year ago. Three of last year's starting offensive line, plus the Rams' leading tailback, are gone as well, which is an upsetting amount of turnover for a team that was actually pretty good at moving the ball last year. With Hill at the helm, the Rams ranked 15th in FCS in passing yards, both in total and per attempt.

The Rhode Island pass defense was decidedly more average, and the run defense was outright bad, ranking 94th in yards per carry allowed. The good news is that A.J. Pena, who had 9.0 sacks, is back. So is Fredrick Mallay, an undersized corner who broke up eight passes last year and intercepted another two. The bad news is that most of the other top tacklers are gone. Improvement has to start somewhere, but it is hard to start without continuity. On both sides of the ball, there is too much turnover for the Rams to trouble the Gophers in Week 2.

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Nevada's season has already started. Jeff Choate's first game back as a head coach was a weird, penalty-plagued contest the Wolf Pack nearly stole from SMU. It might be early-season noise but could hint that preseason projections and predictions are too pessimistic.

The offense is just about unrecognizable from a season ago. Quarterback Brendon Lewis (remember him?), tailback Sean Dollars, and two of five starting linemen are the only players left who had significant roles. Returning receivers and tight ends combined for five catches.

Lewis is basically the same player he was with the Buffs, presenting a scrambling threat but not offering much as a passer and taking a lot of sacks. Getting into a quicker rhythm will be essential to involve his new targets. They include Cortez Braham Jr., a former backup at West Virginia who caught a touchdown in Week 0; Jaden Smith, an All-WAC selection at Tarleton State; Marcus Bellon, mainly a returner for UTEP; and Jace Henry, a Virginia-born Alaskan who played both quarterback and tight end for Dartmouth. Throw in the bulky Savion Red at running back (one of four ex-Texas Longhorns on the roster) and seventh-year ex-Arizona State-and-California-and-Kansas guard Spencer Lovell, and you have a lot of well-travelled players who have proven little in FBS.

Choate has turned to familiar faces to serve as his coordinators. His old Western Montana teammate Matt Lubick, whose spotty track record includes a firing from Nebraska in 2021, helms the offense. One of Choate's old assistants at Montana State, Kane Ioane, takes over on defense.

By comparison, Ioane has fare more continuity in his unit. Most defenders, even if they were not regulars, were at least on the roster in 2023. Unfortunately, it is a porous defense: Nevada allowed 6.9 yards per play last season, the worst in the country.

Minnehaha Academy product and ex-Badger Kaden Johnson and onetime Nevada tight end Henry Ikahihifo reinforce each edge. Ikahihifo made some plays against SMU, but the pair still only has 2.0 career sacks between them. Nevada's heaviest defensive lineman on their official two-deep is just 285 pounds as well, which sets up a massive mismatch against Minnesota's offensive line.

In the secondary, most starters are fifth-, and sixth-year players who are probably not getting better, and some of them are stepping into bigger roles for the first time. Cornerback Michael Coats Jr. may be the best of them, though nickelback Keyshawn Cobb was productive a couple of seasons ago at Buffalo. Both run and pass were big problems for the Wolf Pack, and this probably will not change. Even if Nevada can avoid a third straight 2-10 season, it will be a long while until they are decent again.

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Minnesota won back Floyd of Rosedale for multiple reasons, but the biggest is that Iowa had no solution at quarterback to a Cade McNamara injury. The Hawkeyes had a decent plan in place to avoid another appalling season on offense, but after McNamara — and several tight ends — went down, that plan became irrelevant, and they could only muster 2 yards in the second half against the Gophers.

McNamara is back for one more year. (If his performance at a recent open practice forebodes disaster, Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan is far better cover than Deacon Hill.) Luke Lachey, seemingly next in line in Iowa's line of high-level tight ends, is back from his own injury. Coordinator Brian Ferentz is gone, replaced by former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester. The offensive line remains poor but has enough continuity to maybe open up more holes for running backs Kamari Moulton and Leshon Williams.

You cannot spin this as a good offense, or even something approaching an average one. (Who is playing receiver, you might ask?) If it cannot achieve adequacy, however, maybe it can be Iowa's first step. Failing that, at least the new punter looks legit.

Phil Parker's defense has permanently earned the benefit of the doubt for years where they lose a lot of starters. This year, they only need to replace three. That includes their best two linemen, Joe Evans and Logan Lee, and it includes arguably the Big Ten's best cornerback, Cooper DeJean, but it is not as if the Hawkeyes lack impact players. Safeties Quinn Schulte and Xavier Nwankpa are studs; Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson form the conference's top linebacker duo; and nickelback (known as the "Cash") Sebastian Castro is maybe the conference's best defender outright.

The Hawkeyes give up maybe a couple of big plays a game, allow few completions, make tackles short of the sticks, and lock down in the red zone if the opponent gets that far. They could use a pass rusher to emerge in Evan's place, but that's the closest thing to a concern facing this defense. It should lead the way to another highly successful season.

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Michigan's DNA will stay the same. Sherrone Moore was as crucial to their national championship as anyone not named Jim Harbaugh, and we can expect a similar identity.

That said, Harbaugh is not the only major departure. On offense, the Wolverines face a hard reset, the kind that probably takes them out of contention to repeat and might keep them out of the Playoff.

We'll start with quarterback. By all indications, Alex Orji is a terror on the ground, combining speed with a 235-pound frame. Throwing the ball is a different story. Even the homers have questions. Senior alternatives are uninspiring (Jack Tuttle) and untested (Davis Warren). If Michigan has to stick to a short, simple passing game — and their receiving group, led by Youngstown State grad-transfer C.J. Charleston, might not offer a very high ceiling — Orji will use tight end Coleston Loveland even more than J.J. McCarthy did. Loveland, at least, is one of the best in America at his position.

Since this is Michigan, we can assume that Orji will have some semblance of an offensive line to run behind, but it will not approach last year's unit. Tackle Myles Hinton is the only lineman on the roster to have started a game for UM last year (with five). The line added just one transfer, former Northwestern guard Josh Priebe. Boom-or-bust tailback Donovan Edwards and multi-purpose tank Kalel Mullings will have to work for more of their yardage.

Michigan's defense was the better unit a season ago, and more of the players that made it great are back for 2024. Tackle Mason Graham and corner Will Johnson were both All-Americans as sophomores and get one more year in Ann Arbor before turning pro. Next to Graham at nose, Kenneth Grant earned All-Big Ten honors. Edge rusher Josaiah Stewart did not match his monstrous production at Coastal Carolina last year, but he and Derrick Moore made their marks. Safeties Rod Moore and Makhari Paige are both solid veterans. Even with key losses at every level, there are some real killers here. Michigan's defense will stay elite.

The Wolverines recruit well enough to avoid offensive calamity but potentially face a steep dropoff. In a low-scoring game without many possessions, an inferior team could ride some luck to an upset. The more likely outcome is that Michigan suffocates lesser opponents but cannot overcome their limitations against Texas, Oregon, Ohio State, and maybe even USC.

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For the fan of football in Minnesota, there is no good news about USC's offense. Caleb Williams left for the NFL before he could become the Gophers' problem, but he is about to be the Vikings' problem for a long time. Successor Miller Moss got his first career start in a bowl win over Louisville last year, and he threw six touchdown passes. If that does not reflect Moss' true talent, there is backup Jayden Maiava, who showed at UNLV he could start at most schools.

While there is ample room for improvement up front, three of five starting linemen are back from last season. So is Zachariah Branch, who was Williams' third-choice receiver but made a litany of All-American teams as a returner. After Branch and Kyron Hudson, there are clusters of pedigreed underclassmen and of steady transfers. At running back, Jo'Quavious "Woody" Marks arrives from Mississippi State to lead an otherwise freshman-heavy group.

Scoring has obviously never been the problem for Lincoln Riley's USC. For all the talent the program brings in, they have been wretched on defense. Last November, Riley finally got rid of the main culprit, Alex Grinch, and now turns over coordinating duties to D'Anton Lynn and Eric Henderson. Both have more NFL than college experience, though Lynn held the same job at UCLA last season.

Up front, the Trojans will hope for more from Bear Alexander and Anthony Lucas but found some help in Vanderbilt transfer Nate Clifton. Clifton and rush end Jamil Muhammad should be the most disruptive players on the line. Oregon State transfer Easton Mascarenas-Arnold is no star but should bring much-needed stability to the shaky linebacker position.

The secondary comes from a less disastrous starting point but still a bad one. Five transfers arrive to pick it up, and at least three seem likely to start. None look like game-changers, but safety Akili Arnold and cornerback John Humphrey have starting experience and can maybe raise the floor. Jaylin Smith had a strong Holiday Bowl performance as something of a box safety and could be one of the Trojans' more valuable defenders.

Continuity with a few stopgap transfers is probably not enough to fix USC's defense. Then again, Nebraska was in a similar position a season ago: They went from one of the worst defenses in the conference to one of the best, and the differences were experience and a better coaching staff. Maybe changing coordinators is all it takes for the Trojans to be a Big Ten contender in their first season. If not, they will at least have enough offense to fend off teams like the Gophers in a shootout.

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Chip Kelly's time at UCLA was not bad, but the mood worsened as Kelly became tired of being a head coach and fans wanted a bit more. With Kelly leaving to Ohio State's offensive coordinator, alumnus DeShaun Foster steps into the job with low expectations for his first season. In the Big Ten preseason media poll, the Bruins ranked 15th out of 18 teams.

Because UCLA signed only 10 players in their high school recruiting class, Foster had to load the roster with transfers. That includes heavy reinforcements to an offensive line that was a bit of a problem last year and loses its leader, all-conference center Duke Clemens, but returns three starters.

That continuity might make it a little easier for Ethan Garbers. Garbers has never been much of a deep passer but can do the simple things with a respectable complement of weapons. Notre Dame transfer Rico Flores Jr. and four-star freshman Kwazi Gilmer join the established Logan Loya and J. Michael Sturdivant at receiver. Meanwhile, tailback T.J. Harden is backed by plenty of depth, including Michigan State transfer Jalen Berger. Even if coordinator Eric Bienemy would probably prefer a little more top-end talent, the offense should have a solid floor.

Turnover on the other side of the ball could be more costly. No loss is as huge as Lombardi Award winner Laiatu Latu, but the departures do not stop there. Latu and four others who are gone now combined for 62.5 tackles for loss a season ago. Five more regulars who no longer on the roster combined for 29 interceptions and pass breakups. An excellent 2023 defense is bound to take a step back. The question is how big a step it will be.

Four different transfers arrive to bolster the edge. None of them are sure things. Collins Acheampong was a well-regarded recruit but did not play at Miami (FL) in his first season. Jacob Busic and Drew Tuazama had productive 2022 seasons at Navy and UAB but missed most of 2023 with injuries. Cherif Seye has been a fine player, but in the SWAC and Southland. Maybe one of them turns into a star for the Bruins; skepticism is warranted.

There is at least experience elsewhere: Kain Medrano and Femi Oladejo at linebacker and Jaylin Davies and Devin Kirkwood at cornerback can be adequate. So can the transfers filling the rest of the secondary, including former Georgia Tech slot corner K.J. Wallace. The Bruins will still probably not come close to matching the havoc they created a season ago. Even if UCLA has added enough experience to prevent a collapse, the loss of so much high-end talent means a bowl is not guaranteed.

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Mike Locksley and Maryland have settled into a surprising place for them: quiet, comfortable consistency. Locksley is the first Terps coach since Ralph Friedgen to make three consecutive bowl games. Even granting the nature of some of their losses, they win slightly more than they lose, which for this program in this era of college football is not a given.

Those good feelings will probably pause for a moment. Taulia Tagovailoa, the quarterback for the past four seasons, is gone. So is every offensive lineman who has started a game for Maryland except for guard Kyle Long. However good fans may feel about the skill positions — Kaden Prather and Tai Felton make a good wideout duo, and running back Roman Hemby is reliable — this amount of turnover can kill an offense.

Piecing together a new line via the transfer portal is fraught, but there was not much of a choice in this situation. Josh Kaltenberger (Purdue), Aliou Bau (Georgia) and Alan Herron (Shorter) look set to all start; only Kaltenberger has done so in Division I.

The Terps have a starting quarterback, but on Tuesday Locksley again declined to identify which of Billy Edwards Jr., M.J. Morris, and Cameron Edge is the guy. Edwards has played some Wildcat in the past, and Morris was the backup at NC State last season. Neither has a strong track record. Edge has basically none.

There is better, if mixed, news on defense. Linebacker is not a question mark; Ruben Hyppolite II and three others who made more than 20.0 tackles last season return. The line lacks playmakers but is sufficiently experienced and deep.

The secondary was Maryland's strongest unit and looks that way again, but it might be a bit top-heavy. Dante Trader Jr. and especially the versatile Glendon Miller are valuable safeties. The question is whether the Terrapins can cope with the departures of their top three corners. Bowling Green transfer Jalen Huskey will partially offset those losses, but opponents can just throw away from Huskey if the other cornerbacks are not up to the task. Whether four-star signing Braydon Lee or someone else starts, the Terrapins need to find security.

* * *

No one should really have "expectations" for an Illinois offense, but under Bret Bielema, there are some common traits: mobile linemen to execute coordinator Barry Lunney Jr.'s circus of counters, a small but capable pack of receivers, and a quarterback that may not challenge other teams' safeties much but surely will not screw everything up.

Headed into 2024, the Illini have most of these things. Longtime tackles Julian Pearl and Isaiah Adams are gone, but All-Mountain West selection J.C. Davis (New Mexico) and veteran Melvin Priestly arrive to fill their places on either side of an experienced interior line. Illinois' run game has recently lacked its old big-play punch, but this group should continue to avoid negative plays and keep the offense on schedule. Former UTSA and Mississippi receiver Zakhari Franklin arrives to become Illinois' new No. 1 target and a red zone threat. And Luke Altmeyer returns for another season at quarterback.

Still, Altmeyer typifies the lack of ceiling on this offense. Last year's line was pretty good but not outstanding. Pat Bryant will play alongside Franklin and do a fine job, but they need help. Kaden Feagin and Josh McCray are hulking running backs with power but not explosiveness. (True freshman Ca'Lil Valentine, if he plays, could be the "lightning" to their "thunder" and "more thunder.") As efficient as Illinois is, they have one of the least dynamic attacks in the country.

Despite Ryan Walters' departure for Purdue, Illinois defense stuck to playing lots of Cover 1 Man 2023. The results, however, were not as great as in 2022: The Illini fell from allowing the lowest completion rate in FBS to the 63rd-lowest.Losing Devon Witherspoon cannot entirely explain the difference, but it was surely a huge part.

Junior cornerbacks Tyler Strain, Xavier Scott, and Terrance Brooks gained a lot of experience a season ago. (Brooks did so at Texas.) They still must prove they can execute such an aggressive style.

Down in the box, the Illini will look very different. Seth Coleman and Gabe Jacas return at the two outside linebacker spots, but Keith Randolph Jr. and Jer'Zhan Newton only headline the number of linemen who are gone from last year. A pair of grad transfers will try to plug the holes — Dennis Briggs Jr., who had a low-key six years at Florida State, and Gentle Hunt, who was second-team All-SWAC at Florida A&M. They will not be as disruptive as their predecessors, and they will not have as much depth behind them, either.

Bielema's Illinois has surprised me before, but they look rather uninspiring entering the fall. They seem headed for another five- or six-win season.

* * *

Rutgers feels pretty good about where they are. Outright hype is ill-advised, but after going 7-6 last season, their best record in almost a decade, the Scarlet Knights have established a basic level of competence that is dramatically better than their state even five years ago. They were the biggest joke in the Big Ten, an encapsulation of how ridiculous conference expansion was and is, an instant win for any halfway-decent team. (Chris Ash's four teams posted three winless conference records.) Now, they resemble an actual football team, with a genuine identity.

The issue with all Rutgers praise, however, is that it requires qualification. For example: Using CFB_Data's explosiveness metric, there was not one defense in FBS that was better at preventing explosive plays last season. That's extraordinary! Except that dozens of teams were better at preventing successful plays. The Scarlet Knights do not let other teams into the third level, but there is plenty of space to exploit closer to the line of scrimmage.

To put my nice voice back on: Rutgers does return a lot of good defenders. Aaron Lewis and Wesley Bailey did not make many sacks last year but combined for 62 PFF-tracked pressures, a healthy total that suggests the two edge rushers should bring down more quarterbacks in 2024. Mohamed Toure had an excellent season at linebacker once he returned to the starting lineup. (Edit: Mohamed Toure is out for the season.) Shaquan Loyal and Michael "Flip" Dixon (remember him?) make a good safety pairing. While I still have questions about defensive tackle, the amount of continuity throughout this already solid unit should result in overall improvement.

Except... Rutgers has to score points. Kyle Monangai is indisputably one of the meanest backs in the sport, and a middling offensive line that brings back most of its members could be a bit better than middling. Bringing in FCS All-American Dymere Miller from Monmouth instantly boosts the receiving corps. Rutgers found an upgrade at quarterback over Gavin Wimsatt, who, while a hard man to tackle, was not the kind of passer they need at this level. It's just... well...

The Rutgers offense has legitimate limitations, and I remain somewhat more optimistic about Athan Kaliakmanis (REMEMBER HIM?) than most, but the truth is that he has been a bad college quarterback far more often than he has been a good one. To illustrate this: A season ago, Rutgers ranked 118th in FBS in passing success rate. Minnesota ranked 116th. I think the gap in passing ability between Kaliakmanis and Wimsatt is significantly larger, but that comparison sure says a lot, doesn't it?

Perhaps reuniting with coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca benefits Kaliakmanis, and fans should wish him well, but I doubt he makes the Scarlet Knights' offense a whole lot better. Joe Harasymiak's defense should at least win them some games. It will also make Minnesota's early-November visit worth watching beyond the obvious narratives.

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Being a Penn State fan is not hard. Not when double-digit Saturdays end in a win most years. Not when you get to watch such entertaining players as Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson and Parker Washington, and Abdul Carter and Adisa Isaac. Not when your program's future is safe against the endless capitalistic consolidation of the sport. That cannot be hard.

However, being a Penn State fan must be maddening. Everyone knows the narrative: The Nittany Lions beat the teams they are supposed to but lose to Michigan (three straight) and Ohio State (seven straight), locked in a bizarre rich man's purgatory, where the ceiling is inches beyond reach and where every shortcoming is magnified. Penn State chokes; Penn State is unserious; Penn State is not a truly elite program. Such notoriety sounds exhausting, doesn't it?

Anyway, this seems like a good moment to talk about Drew Allar. Allar has the misfortune of following McSorley and Sean Clifford, but he has also flatly not lived up to his hype as a prospect. He is a former five-star recruit, towering and rocket-armed, who seldom throws deep and who against Michigan and Ohio State averaged 4.0 yards per attempt. He has always had a great set of targets and will again in 2024, but Penn State will not find another level unless Allar does.

Penn State should at least be able to play bully ball — to an extent. Guards Olaivavega Ioane and Sal Wormley are back from last year's solid front five, but they are joined by players stepping into major roles for the first time. For the team's fearsome tailback tandem — Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton — to do their damage, they need the transition up front to go smoothly.

The PSU defense was maybe the best in FBS against the run a season ago. (By yards per non-sack carry, they were.) Most key members of the front seven return: all their main tackles, edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton, linebacker Kobe King, and Carter. From the beginning, Carter has drawn Micah Parsons comparisons, and now he becomes a full-time edge rusher like his predecessor, replacing Isaac.

The Nittany Lions were not quite as sharp effective defending the pass but have a battle-tested group of safeties. Cornerback, usually a position of strength, looks a little less settled. Transfers A.J. Harris (Georgia) and Jalen Kimber (Florida, but Georgia before that) may be in line to start but have had to fend off as many as five others in fall camp. Harris was the second-ranked cornerback in the 2022 class; Kimber was an adequate starter for the Gators last season.

Penn State's goal this season is to make the Playoff, full stop. When they come to Minneapolis, they cannot clinch a berth, but they can throw one away if Minnesota is up to the task.

* * *

Existentially, Wisconsin is in an awkward place. Did Luke Fickell and Phil Longo need to so radically change the team's approach, or will it undermine the program's identity? Can the Badgers ever return to the heights seen under Barry Alvarez, Bret Bielema, and Paul Chryst, or does the expansion of the conference mean 10-win seasons will become rare spikes in fortune? Is UW losing its grip on the top prospects in the state, and does it matter?

More immediately, Wisconsin is a pretty good football team that possesses Paul Bunyan's Axe. For the last three seasons, the Border Battle has gone to the team with better quarterback play, and the Badgers have filled that position with Tyler Van Dyke. Van Dyke had an enigmatic tenure at Miami (FL), never replicating his impressive redshirt freshman campaign, last year throwing 11 interceptions over a six-game stretch. While he has a great arm, Van Dyke's placement is erratic: He delivers sublime corner routes and go balls, and he forces hard catches on slants or buries screens at his target's ankles. He also has a poor sense of anticipation, and he can fail to realize when throwing the ball away is actually better than a checkdown. In equal measures, Van Dyke should deliver UW fans thrills and migraines.

The two most-used targets from last year's team, Will Pauling and Bryson Green, are back for 2024. Pauling is an excellent slot receiver who took on a huge workload after arriving from Cincinnati and showed he could handle it, but the Badgers will need to find additional contributors if Longo is going to run the offense through Van Dyke as he seemingly wants. Chez Mellusi will still get a fair number of carries, and Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker is generating excitement as his partner in the run game. Four of five starting linemen have substantial experience and should handle themselves.

Wisconsin's defense will start the fall shorthanded after an injury to tackle James Thompson Jr. that may cost him his season. Fifth-year seniors Ben Barten and Cade McDonald, plus redshirt sophomore Curt Neal, will be the primary interior linemen in Thompson's stead. They have made a combined 29.0 career tackles. For a team that has been merely fine defending the run, that does not bode well.

The Badgers usually get more production from the linebacker positions, though, particularly on the edge. William & Mary transfer John Pius could be a force, having recorded 35.0 TFLs (21.0 sacks) over his last two FCS All-American seasons with the Tribe. Opposite him, Darryl Peterson is one of the leaders of the defense and made 10.0 TFLs himself last year. Jake Chaney and Jaheim Thomas (from Cincinnati by way of a one-year stint at Arkansas) should provide a solid veteran presence on the inside.

At the back, strong safety Hunter Wohler and cornerback Ricardo Hallman are among the conference's best at their positions. Wohler had an absurd 97.0 tackles a season ago and was a huge reason opponents failed to generate explosive plays against the Badgers. Hallman allowed a 50.8-percent completion rate (per PFF) to go with his seven picks. Their counterparts are not as accomplished but offer experience that could improve the team's 92nd-ranked success rate against the pass.

Fickell will not have Wisconsin fighting for a Playoff spot yet. In fact, with so many tough games on the schedule (Alabama, at USC, Penn State, at Iowa, Oregon), the Badgers may need to beat the Gophers again just to make a bowl. We will see on Black Friday whether those stakes are mutual.

* * * * * *

Prediction

Projecting what happens to the Gophers this season is difficult, both because of their own roster and because there are so few sure things on this schedule. They will most likely beat Rhode Island and Nevada. They will most likely lose to Michigan, USC, and Penn State, even if I think they can steal one of those games.

The other seven games, though, the ones that will decide whether Minnesota goes bowling? Individually, you can easily argue for a given result: Iowa's defense is too good, or their offense is too bad; UCLA and Illinois should be competitive, or they lack star power; Rutgers is building toward a bigger year, or they have killer flaws; and so on.

Expect lots of close games and somewhere between five and nine wins. With ambivalence, I will land right in the slightly optimistic middle.

Predicted regular season record: 7-5

Predicted bowl: Cactus Bowl (Phoenix, Arizona) vs. TCU