November 19, 2023

Gophers Notebook: Minnesota 3-37 Ohio State

Much like the loss to Michigan a little over a month ago, Minnesota's trip to Ohio State leaves few talking points. The Gophers kept things close for a while, but they never came close to controlling this game and hardly had a chance. The result was close to inevitable.

Early, the OSU offense more or less played with its food. Kyle McCord was unexceptional, but TreVeyon Henderson led a highly efficient ground game. Henderson averaged 6.6 yards per attempt in the first half and had just one negative carry. He is a powerful runner behind a strong offensive line, as the Gophers' linebackers got caught in traffic, he had wide open running lanes.

The Buckeyes were content to not go deep because the Gophers could not control the edge against OSU's faster skill players. See the tap passes to Emeka Egbuka:

Marvin Harrison Jr. was quiet by his standards — he finished with three catches for 30 yards and a touchdown — but Egbuka's 83 receiving yards almost matched Minnesota's total (89). He did it all before halftime.

The Buckeyes basically did what they wanted until they got deep into Minnesota territory, where they stalled. Incompletions and one stopped run forced passing downs, and McCord couldn't dig them out. They led by 13 at the break anyway.

The biggest problem for the Gophers was the inability of their own offense to keep up. To pull off an upset, Minnesota would have needed to pick up small edges. Excessive caution helped make sure they weren't going to get those edges.

When such a massive underdog, a team needs to limit the number of possessions that the other team has. That means getting takeaways and avoiding giveaways, eating up clock, and extending drives on 4th down. Minnesota failed to force a fumble, they only got their hands on two passes. Athan Kaliakmanis suffered a strip-sack and threw an interception on back-to-back drives to start the third quarter. That's a loss, then, in the turnover battle.

They did waste time fairly effectively, at least. In the first half, they let almost 38 seconds per play go off the clock and did make a couple of forays beyond midfield. They didn't turn the ball over in that time. But when the ground game is toothless, that becomes a moot point. Zach Evans left with an injury on his second carry, and Jordan Nubin had 9 yards on as many carries. Twice, Nubin ran on 3rd-and-long on the Buckeyes' side of the field, and he did not gain a yard either time. He took a lot of hits and did not have a chance.

Minnesota asked the one healthy tailback they trust to do too much. It was not that the Gophers should not have ran the ball and taken a conservative approach — it was that they leaned too hard into that approach and could not execute it.

Timidness on 4th downs, compounded the issue. P.J. Fleck thrice punted from between the 40s. This included a punt from OSU's 42-yard line with 5 yards to go. In a closer matchup, those are tougher calls, but when Minnesota needed longer drives and to find ways to compensate for the talent margin, these punts were wasted chances. With a little more early aggressiveness, Minnesota could have kept the game within reach for longer. Instead, Henderson's 75-yard touchdown and those turnovers effectively ended the game with 25 minutes left.

The good news for the Gophers' bowl chances is that they might have already done everything they need to make it. They're one of the top teams in the NCAA's Academic Progress Rate metric, which means if there are not enough .500-or-better teams to fill all 41 bowls, Minnesota will go bowling. That would come with some much-needed extra practices.

Not that fans should want such a hollow victory. To beat Wisconsin and make it to six wins, they need their key players to be healthy. Cody Lindenberg took part in early warmups on Saturday but did not dress, missing his ninth game of the year. Maverick Baranowski did not play either, having suffered an injury at Purdue. Against even a hampered Braelon Allen, Minnesota must not have a freshman start at middle linebacker again.

They also need another running back. Sean Tyler's fumble problems mean he will not get a chance unless he is the last option available, and Nubin just is not good enough to carry the rushing attack. The Badgers shut down Mohamed Ibrahim a year ago at Camp Randall but lost thanks to Kaliakmanis' best performance as a college quarterback. Kaliakmanis has not shown much evidence this season he will repeat that, so he needs all the help he can get.

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