2023 Gophers Season Preview

In 1919, one of the most important figures in the early development of football, Walter Camp, made a salient point: Naming a college football national champion is foolish.

In a season of shocking upsets and great parity, in which only Texas A&M finished perfect as the 10-0-0 champions of the Southwest Conference, every corner of the country experienced wild races just to prove who was just the best team in their region and to hold bragging rights over each other. Per Camp: "Every team which won its game over the traditional rival, readily forgot the defeats at the hands of other teams in the gratification of at least having added one more to its victories over a dearest foe."

In the Northeast, the birthplace of the sport, traditional powers Princeton were slammed 25-0 by West Virginia, who lost to Pop Warner's Pittsburgh, who in turn lost to rivals Penn State, who in turn tripped up against Dartmouth, who lost to Brown, who became one of Harvard's many victims that season before Harvard's surprise draw at Princeton.

In the Midwest, Minnesota lost by a field goal to Iowa but won comfortably against hated foes Wisconsin and Michigan, the latter of whom felled Illinois, who went undefeated against the rest of their schedule, including a 10-6 win at Northrop Field over Minnesota.

On the West Coast, Camp writes, "matters became very complicated." A previously undefeated Washington State slipped up versus a previously hapless Oregon Agricultural (now Oregon State), who had also upset Washington, who in turn defeated the Cougars and scored 120 points on Whitman College but dropped an important game to Oregon, whose loss to Washington State was nullified by the work of their rivals from Corvallis, giving the then-Webfoots a share of the Pacific Coast Conference title and a Rose Bowl berth.

In the South, three regional powers created a loop of defeats: Georgia Tech flattened Vanderbilt, but Vanderbilt beat Auburn, and Auburn beat Georgia Tech. John Heisman's Tornado (now Yellow Jackets) formed another loop with another blowout win over Georgetown and a defeat to Washington & Lee, whose only loss that season was to Georgetown. Auburn ultimately came out on top of the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association despite not playing Alabama, whose only loss on the season was also to Vanderbilt.

Camp's point in highlighting the absurdity of the 1919 season was that the games themselves were enough to hold our attention, that college football did not need a national champion to justify the experience of loving the sport. Beyond that, a the distinctiveness with which football existed in each corner of the country counted as a major strength.

"A high grade of football is played at many institutions hundreds and thousands of miles away from the northeast corner of this country. Football, however, is not a game where a great national championship is possible or desirable.... a great deal of the progress in the game has come from unusual and too little accredited sources." (Camp segues into discussion of contemporary strategic developments, which he ties in part to Midwestern and Western coaches.)

If you are reading this, there is a strong chance that you have never been alive for — let alone known — more than one season that a Minnesota football team, in the context of the national conversation, "mattered." They have existed squarely in the middle class of this subdivision's "power" conferences, never competing for titles but going on because there is football to be played.

We can disagree on specifics, but there are something like 40 teams who live in the same station as the Gophers, and then 20 to 30 who live above them. Those top teams are the ones who get to matter every year, even in the years where their records don't look like those of a team that does. Those teams are the reason why conferences get broken up and reshuffled, because the broadcasters — who pay your head coach's paycheck but can't give the players anything because your alma mater doesn't want them to — can only sell to advertisers for maximum revenues the teams that matter.

Minnesota does not matter. Washington State does not matter. Though there are several differences between the two, differences that make each of them beautiful and essential to everyone who makes their dozen games a part of their fall, the only difference that means anything in this context is that one happens to have a lifeboat tied to a few teams that matter, and the other one's rope just got cut.

The latter faces a budget deficit the size of Dabo Swinney's base salary and doesn't yet have a home. Some of the games that they played practically every year for over a century, the ones that their fans got excited for and made long drives to attend, are about to go away. The athletic department will likely slash its budget, and the school will settle into a conference with the teams who aren't allowed to matter. There are about 60 of those in FBS currently, teams with their own histories and heroes and dedicated fans but who can't afford to keep their coaches, have to take a beating from the teams that do matter just to get by, and won't ever get on the 6:30 p.m. ABC game.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is about to get $60 million per year for the rest of the decade. It's a good life. With a few matterers joining the conference next year, and Minnesota's division of mostly non-matterers being broken up, it's likely the Gophers' ceiling is somewhere in the middle of a preposterous, coast-to-coast 18-team empire. They are flyover country in a conference that used to only serve flyover country. Eventually, maybe once the skies are orange from wildfire smoke every fall and anyone who can't afford a loge box gets kicked out of every major college football stadium, the Gophers' rope gets cut, too.

This isn't strictly the Playoff's fault. College football is a corporatized television product in late-stage capitalism. The haves (which for now does include Minnesota) never feel they have enough. Everything that doesn't earn the maximum is ultimately chaff, no matter how important it is to someone somewhere on a level beyond the money. The insatiable cultural desire to name a national champion, and the modern solutions to that invented problem, is only one factor that led to this problem.

But it is inherently tied to how we classify these 133 teams and how we decide whom to discuss, whom to elevate, whom to celebrate. Can you win a national championship? Could you make the Playoff once it expands to 12 teams? Could you actually win a Playoff game? Is your only way of making it in being the 12th seed from a small-time conference, ready to be served as ritual sacrifice to a school making 3 or 4 or 10 times as much money as you in media rights alone? Do you matter, or are you chaff?

I grew up rooting for a team that doesn't matter, in a college town that's home to a different team that isn't allowed to matter, and I went to a school whose team doesn't matter. There has been one time in my life I thought any of those teams could win a national championship, an incredible two weeks in November that ended in immediate, crushing refutation of that thought.

If none of this matters, then why have I stayed? Why, for 13 weeks every fall, do I spend the money on tickets, travel hundreds of miles to cities lying between major airports, and get elated and angry and anxious at the pixels on my television? Why do I text my friends in June about football season? Why do I spend hours writing when I could be sleeping? Why do any of this when I could devote my energy elsewhere?

I presume it is for the same reason that you have. For some reason that defies conventional belief and cannot be answered in the cold, logical terms that my brain craves, I do not care whether this matters because it feels real. It felt real to those who were around in 1977, when the Gophers were already well past their glory years and had lost nine straight to a program that was once their peer.

It must have felt real in 2003, when Minnesota's hopes for a Rose Bowl appearance died midway through the season but there were still games to play and trophies to claim.

And while I was still a few years away from knowing it, it surely felt real at the end of an otherwise dismal 2010 season, when the guy who promised Rose Bowls was fired because he couldn't beat South Dakota.

For fans of most teams in this sport, the national title race is irrelevant. Even those who get to follow the contenders aren't only there to follow a winner. As long as we all have a team to follow, to cherish, to share with our friends and family, then we have a reason to be here.

This magnificent, grotesque sport won't be ours to cherish forever. Either its own long-ignored problems or the long-ignored problems of the world will kill it at some point. The time that we still have it, its simple being here for us and the joy we get from that fact, is what matters.

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From this point on, you will find a more straightforward preview of the Gophers' season. For each area of the team — offense, defense, special teams — I've linked the position previews I published over the last few weeks and offer a predicted depth chart. I also ask 10 big questions facing the 2023 Gophers, divided between the three units. After all of that, I give a team-by-team overview of Minnesota's schedule and a final record prediction.

Offense

Position previews: Receivers and tight ends ・ Running backs ・ Quarterbacks ・ Offensive line

Predicted depth chart:

Click to enlarge any image in this post.

A note on all depth charts: Not all second- or third-stringers have equally small roles.
For example, Elijah Spencer should play as many snaps as a starter despite not
necessarily being a lock to start every week.

Having reloaded the skill positions with transfers, Minnesota's offense looks to be a lot more capable and well-rounded than it has been in the years since 2019. There's no squat but burly All-American running back, and there may not be an exceptional lineman right now, but the run game should maintain a solid floor. The real source of excitement is the passing attack, where a pedigreed, toolsy quarterback steps in as the full-time starter, surrounded by experienced and talented pass-catchers. It's quite possible that the Gophers aren't much better at scoring than a year ago — those outside the program don't even know who will call plays between co-coordinators Matt Simon and Greg Harbuagh — but there's a chance they see tremendous improvement.

Is Athan Kaliakmanis the real deal right now?

Athan Kaliakmanis is a genuine talent. His arm strength, mobility, and composure make his ceiling as high as any Minnesota quarterback in several years. He can become one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten by the time he's done in college.

But Kaliakmanis has to start by improving upon his first season of regular playing time. He needs to take fewer sacks and become a more consistent passer. These are normal problems for a young player to have, but if the Gophers' offense is to reach its full potential, Kaliakmanis must at least start to unlock his own potential.

Will the line hold steady after losing all three interior starters?

The offensive line is anything but green. Everyone in the mix to start is a fourth-, fifth, or sixth-year player, and most of them have at least decent college playing experience.

Each one of the players in question has something to prove. Aireontae Ersery faces big expectations and has already shown why, but he still has room to grow. Quinn Carroll needs to improve his pass protection and stay just as proficient blocking the run while going against defensive tackles instead of ends. And Nathan Boe, Karter Shaw, Martes Lewis, J.J. Guedet, and Tyler Cooper — whichever combination of them plays — must translate their long development into in-game effectiveness.

Which of the Gophers' intriguing young skill players blooms?

Le'Meke Brockington had an eye-catching redshirt freshman season at receiver. Zach Evans ran for his first college touchdown against Northwestern last year and has had some strong showings in spring games. Darius Taylor, another 4-star tailback, might be too good to leave off the field. The experience at the top of the depth chart makes it harder for these three underclassmen to have starring roles in 2023, but their talent is so enticing, one has to think at least one of them makes his mark. If nothing else, they can offer previews of what's to come next fall.

How fully will the offense open up?

In theory, the Gophers have the quarterback. He has a full complement of weapons in Daniel Jackson, Brevyn Spann-Ford, Elijah Spencer, Chris Autman-Bell, Corey Crooms, and Brockington. There is enough talent in the backfield to ease the load of the passing attack. And the offensive line should at least be competent, if likely not dominant.

This is the year that Minnesota is supposed to move away from the stodgy, run-obsessed style that has defined the last two seasons. It's unlikely to be a total break, but the Gophers are going to put to use their improved passing attack.

The question is whether they'll embrace it as much as they should and put full trust their offense in crucial moments. Six years of evidence suggests P.J. Fleck won't do either. In 2019, with two NFL receivers, they still ran more than they threw. When his defense was bad, he wouldn't take risks; now that his defense is good, he won't take risks. Fleck likes to coach one type of way. To get the most out of what he has this year, he needs to evolve.

Defense

Position previews: Linebackers ・ Defensive line ・ Secondary

Predicted depth chart:

Three of the last four years, Minnesota's defense has ranked 21st or better in F+, climbing all the way to 7th last season. Joe Rossi has established himself as one of the best coordinators in college football, playing a style that suits his team's schedule every year: maintaining gaps, furiously rallying to the ball, and keeping plays in front of them. It can backfire at times — play-action can scorch the Gophers' old-school linebackers and aggressive safeties — but most weeks, especially against the stodgier offenses of the Big Ten West, it is a winning formula.

No unit deserves perennial benefit of the doubt, however, especially after just a few years. Rossi's defense has to prove it can withstand a few key losses from last year while fixing its one major flaw.

Can anyone get to the passer?

There are other concerns, but this is indisputably Item No. 1 for the Minnesota defense. The Gophers tied for 117th in FBS in sack rate last year (4.4 percent). They were even a little worse on passing downs, ranking 121st despite how good a job their secondary did at taking away options downfield. On an otherwise elite defense, the Gophers were outright bad at one of the most valuable areas of defense.

Jah Joyner looks like someone who can get after quarterbacks, but if he hasn't sorted out his issues in run defense, he'll have to come off the field fairly often again. Danny Striggow has shown some aptitude but is a regression candidate after posting an abnormally high pressure-to-sack rate a season. If the Gophers are to field a better pass rush, everyone on the line needs to have made progress this offseason.

After significant departures, is Minnesota's run defense still one of the nation's best?

The Gophers don't have as much continuity or experience as they did a year ago. Tackle Trill Carter, linebackers Donald Willis and Braelen Oliver, and nickelback Michael Dixon all transferred. Thomas Rush, an inconsistent pass rusher but disciplined run defender at rush end, graduated. So did renowned leader and all-conference linebacker Mariano Sori-Marin. It's inherently hard to maintain a high standard in this situation.

So what do the new guys have? Danny Striggow needs to prove that his breakout in 2022 was legitimate. Deven Eastern needs to stick the landing in his first taste of regular action.  It looks increasingly likely that Devon Williams, also stepping into a major role for the first time, will start Week 1 and must do the same thing. Whichever transfer steps in at nickel has to bring the combination of speed and toughness the position requires. It's not impossible for the Gophers to keep stifling the run — Rossi's approach helps, as does a future NFL safety at the back — but it wouldn't be too surprising if they take a step back. A lot needs to go right.

How high is Cody Lindenberg's next step?

The run defense would benefit, of course, from Cody Lindenberg living up to all of his head coach's hype. By the end of 2022, he looked like one of Minnesota's best defenders. He should be one of the top Gophers again this season. Lindenberg can make up for a lot of problems around him, though, if he can find an even greater level in his redshirt junior season. If he can improve his coverage skills and be even better against the run, he'll be one of the Big Ten's best linebackers.

Will the secondary withstand so much turnover?

In college football, continuity might be most valuable at defensive back. Bringing back potential All-American Tyler Nubin will go a long way for Gophers, and Justin Walley has become an effective starting cornerback. But losing either to injury would deal a critical blow to the secondary.

Everyone else due for a major role is either doing so for the first time (Darius Green, Tariq Watson), moving up from the Group of Five (Tyler Bride) or FCS (Jack Henderson, Tre'Von Jones), or is coming off a serious injury and has limited experience at his current position (Craig McDonald). It's not a totally unproven group, nor one without talent. Is it enough to prevent a substantial drop-off, however? It needs to be if this season is to go anywhere.

Special Teams

Position preview

Predicted depth chart:

Is Dragan Kesich ready to kick live field goals?

We know Dragan Kesich is a great kickoff specialist, but becoming the team's primary placekicker is a different, arguably harder task. Having taken just one college field goal attempt before this season, adding field goals and extra points to his duties is a big ask for Kesich. If it works out, and he's got both power and skill in that left foot, he might have a shot at the NFL in a couple years. If not, the Gophers will turn to Jacob Lewis and hope they aren't back to frustration at kicker.

Can Quentin Redding become a top returner?

The high points of Quentin Redding's first season returning kicks and punts were highly encouraging. What Minnesota needs him to do in Year 2 is pick his spots better and turn his big returns into touchdowns. If he plays a little more intelligently, and if he got just a little faster this offseason, Redding could be a major asset.

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Schedule

Minnesota opens the year against Nebraska, whose disastrous 2022's final legacy will be the final demise of the Scott Frost era. Frost made total sense when he took the job in 2018: a Cornhusker hero with a great reputation for offensive scheme, and who had most recently taken two whole years to turn UCF from winless to undefeated. Frost instead stumbled, suffered atrocious misfortune in one-possession games, blamed everyone but himself for the Huskers' systemic failings, and bragged about overworking his players before being fired three games into his fifth season.

To fix Frost's mess, Nebraska has turned to one of the best college coaches of the last decade, Matt Rhule. Rhule has a history of rebuilding broken programs at Temple and Baylor, and his eight-year contract indicates he'll get a long enough leash to repeat that trick.

Improvement must start in the box. Across the board, Nebraska's line stats were appalling a season ago, and it's why they had one of the worst run defenses in the Power Five. The personnel is largely the same or changed only around the edges (figuratively and literally), which doesn't inspire much confidence. End Ty Robinson returns as a starter next to new nose tackle Nash Hutmacher. They aren't surrounded by much size on the line's two-deep; only those two and Hutmacher's backup are over 265 pounds. The linebackers, including the new "Jack" position (basically a rush end), are also on the lighter side.

The man brought in to fix the Huskers' defense, new coordinator Tony White, is partially working with what he has but also betting on speed. It worked at Syracuse, where White's defense ranked 15th in yards per play allowed last season.

Based on the spring game, White's 3-3-5 will be fluid. Most of the time, it looks a bit like a regular 4-2-5, with the Jack on the line as a standup edge rusher.

It can, however, morph into something resembling a 4-4 if two of the safeties come down:

The Jack might also move from the C gap into a more normal linebacker spot, such as here, where he's showing a blitz:

Or a linebacker becomes his counterpart on the opposite edge, creating something like a 3-4 "tite" front, with the ends scooching inside to spots over the guards:

A pair of Cocktail Party transfers, senior M.J. Sherman from Georgia and redshirt sophomore Chief Brothers from Florida, will fill the Jack position. They have 12.5 college tackles between them. The much more experienced but often spotty Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich, both honored with single-digit jerseys this year, fill the other two linebacker spots.

The Huskers' secondary has been a strength of theirs, but they will be without safety Marques Buford Jr. for the first few games. Minneapolis North's Omar Brown, who once shone at Northern Iowa, made just 3.0 tackles after transferring in last year and is one-third of NU's new safety group. One, DeShon Singleton, made just 2.0 tackles as a true freshman and likely starts until Buford's return. The third safety, Isaac Gifford, occupies the deep "Rover" position. Cornerback is thin after Quinton Newsome, who is a legit player, having broken up 10 passes last season.

As a whole, the Blackshirts are lacking in obvious talent and in size up front. Do not expect immediate returns on their shift in identity.

On offense, Nebraska faces a similar problem. The line has been outright bad for years, and there aren't many new faces here to fix it. Arizona State transfer Ben Scott brings ample experience to center, and right guard Nouredin Nouili returns to the lineup after missing 2022 due to suspension. With Teddy Prochazka suffering another injury in camp and with no experienced backups, Turner Corcoran and Bryce Benhart remain Nebraska's beleaguered tackles.

New quarterback Jeff Sims is in for a difficult time. He is fairly used to that, however, after being the starter for just eight wins at Georgia Tech the last three seasons. Sims possesses an easy arm strength, putting plenty of velocity on his throws despite being guilty of leaning back or not putting his hips into throw a lot of the time. His quick release and pure speed all served him well behind a line that was even worse than Nebraska's. He ran some option with the Yellow Jackets and will be an asset on those concepts for the Cornhuskers. Minnesota's rush will need to collapse the pocket around Sims so he does not hurt them by scrambling.

Nebraska's leading returning receiver, Marcus Washington, suffered an injury in camp but is expected to play. Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda and Alex Bullock join him in the starting lineup. Garcia-Castaneda was solid for New Mexico State but redshirted after making five catches in his first season for the Huskers; Bullock only recently shed his walk-on status and has never made a catch in college. Graduate transfers Billy Kemp IV (Virginia) and Joshua Fleeks (Baylor) will give a veteran presence in the slot. We have yet to see if the new tight ends can replicate the threat Travis Vokolek presented.

Nebraska will not be good this season. They could, however, put up a fight if they see even modest improvement on their lines. Especially in Week 1, before the Gophers have had a chance to watch the Huskers against other teams, they could pull out some surprises and make their opener competitive.

* * *

Eastern Michigan should not have the talent to beat the Gophers, but what they do have is an identity. This season will mark a decade in charge for Chris Creighton, overseer of one of the hardest jobs in college football. Between 1993 and 2013, EMU won 26.9 percent of their games. Under Creighton, their winning percentage is 43.0 percent — and even rises above .500 if you exclude his transitional first two seasons. The Eagles were 3 points away from playing for the MAC title last season. There may not be a more underappreciated coach in the FBS than Creighton.

With that said: 2023 looks like a reset year for EMU. Most of the starting defense comes back, but no one will likely replace All-American pass rusher Jose Ramirez. Ramirez was second in the country in sacks a year ago (12.0); no returning Eagle had more than 2.0. While defensive backs Kempton Shine and Joshua Scott (13 passes defensed each) can handle a lot, they'll probably need more support than they're going to get from their teammates up front. That's before mentioning EMU's problems with run defense — they ranked 99th in rushing success rate allowed, according to CFBD. The Gophers, built for efficient rushing, should run right over the Eagles.

EMU plays with a lot of attitude, but they don't have many obvious ways to punch back. Seven offensive starters depart. The skill positions are in a decent state, with veteran tailbacks (Samson Evans and Jaylon Jackson) and receivers (Tanner Knue and Fordham transfer Hamze El-Zayat), but the vast majority of the first-string line's 69 career starts are concentrated at right tackle Brian Dooley (47) and right guard Alex Howie (15). It's an upperclassman-heavy group with legit size, but the new guys have a lot to prove. So does redshirt sophomore quarterback Austin Smith. It's hard to see the Eagles having a chance.

* * *

The best quarterback on Minnesota's schedule is Drake Maye at North Carolina. The reigning ACC Player of the Year finished 4th in the country in passing yards (4,321) and tied for the 5th-most touchdown passes (38) while leading his team in rushing (902 non-sack yards). UNC puts everything on their quarterback, a potential top-10 pick in the NFL Draft.

Maye is well-positioned for another strong year despite playing under a new offensive coordinator (Chip Lindsey), without his two favorite targets from a season ago (Josh Downs and Antoine Green), and playing behind a bad offensive line. Kent State transfer Devontez Walker, the MAC's leader in receiving touchdowns a season ago, will bolster a huge wideout group that is basically intact otherwise. That bad offensive line could get better through continuity, though its main components are old enough for one to wonder how much better they can get.

If there's an essence of a run game outside of Maye, a Tar Heels offense that can attack teams in multiple ways could become a monster. As is, Maye and his receivers will be enough to cause plenty of problems for Minnesota's remade secondary.

For all the change in the U of M's defensive backfield, though, there's even more in UNC's. Six lettermen leave, and four transfers arrive. One, Alijah Hussey (East Tennessee State), was an FCS All-American cornerback and looks like a great pickup. The others figure to be depth pieces in a unit that needs immediate contributors, especially on the outside; North Carolina allowed a completion rate of 65.8 percent a season ago. While veteran safeties Gio Biggers and Don Chapman should continue preventing big plays to a respectable degree, they won't throw other teams off-schedule.

The man who will do that is linebacker Cedric Gray, who made 23.0 havoc plays last season. He's the definite star of this defense, one that could use more players like Gray. The Tar Heels posted an even lower sack rate than the Gophers, ranking 2nd-from-last in FBS. They also allowed 4.9 yards per carry, ranking 80th. Like the offensive line, the front six on defense mostly consists of upperclassmen and graduates, which means they surely can't get worse but probably won't be much better. Besides Gray, "Jack" defensive end Kaimon Rucker (7.0 TFLs) is the team's most productive box defender. The fact there aren't more productive defenders is what's holding UNC back from taking the next step — and what should keep Minnesota at least in the game when they visit Chapel Hill.

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The main thing keeping Pat Fitzgerald in charge at Northwestern entering the summer was a perception that he was doing things "the right way." Fitzgerald always had a meatheaded, cop-ish element to his public persona, but the image he had cultivated was that of a "leader of men" who took care of his players and kept NU out of trouble. For an administration that is relatively apathetic about football, Fitzgerald's 7-29 record over the last three non-pandemic seasons was forgivable.

Thanks largely to the student reporters at The Daily Northwestern, we know that persona was false. After some institutional bumbling, Fitzgerald was fired. Interim head coach David Braun has allowed his coaches do their best impression of the Baylor staff after the Art Briles firing, so clearly Northwestern post-Fitzgerald will be a turbulent situation.

The football will be bad. Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant, who was middling but not awful in the American, apparently has evidently not won the starting quarterback job from Brendan O'Sullivan. That is probably a bad sign. Transfer receivers Cam Johnson (Arizona State) and A.J. Henning (Michigan) are here to at least raise the passing game's floor, but losing tailback Evan Hull means losing basically the Wildcats' entire offense from a year ago. Their line must be better than abject for them to move the ball at all.

NU's defense, meanwhile, is still recovering from the retirement of defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz two years ago. Braun steps in as the new DC after Jim O'Neil's disastrous tenure, but the program's tumult has already pushed out 4-star safety Nigel Glover, the Wildcats' second-highest-rated signing this year and the newest Ohio State Buckeye. There are nevertheless a couple of disruptive veterans in cornerback Cameron Mitchell and linebacker Xander Mueller. They're not enough to offset Northwestern's shocking problems up front (worsened by the departures of Adetomiwa Adebawore and Bryce Gallagher), but they can make plays. This team desperately needs more guys who can.

* * *

Former Louisiana-Lafeyette quarterback Michael Desormeaux's first season in charge of his alma mater could have been far worse. Graduations, transfers, and losing head coach Billy Napier to Florida all could have tripped up the Ragin' Cajuns, yet they went a respectable 6-7 with an Independence Bowl appearance.

What worked for the Cajuns was their defense. They ranked 56th in defensive F+ a season ago, which may not sound like much but put them comfortably in the top half of the Sun Belt. The bad news entering 2023: That defense ranks 129th of 133 teams in Bill Connelly's returning production stat.

Let's put names on who's left. Nose tackle Sonny Hazard comes off a season with 5.5 tackles for loss, which leads all of ULL's returning defenders. Four players who are gone now accounted for 33.5 TFLs. Cornerback Courtline Flowers broke up or intercepted a total of four passes as a redshirt freshman; four other departures combined to defense 30 passes. The player who comes back with the most Pro Football Focus-tracked pressures last year, edge rusher Jordan Lawson, had 9. Those who had more pressures, totalling 128, are all gone. All four of the team's all-conference defenders are gone. They're hitting reset on this side of the ball, hard.

ULL's rushing attack was the better aspect of their offense a year ago, and it should remain so with their continuity on the offensive line. Three full-time starters return, and backups who have taken substantial live reps step in at center and right tackle. Dre'lyn Washington, officially 5-foot-9 and 218 pounds, will be the team's starting tailback after averaging 5.5 yards per carry last year. That should make things easier on whoever the quarterback is — neither Chandler Fields nor Ben Wooldridge were that impressive in 2022, and both are back. The receiving group does not threaten. The Gophers shouldn't be troubled much if they play the run first.

* * *

The last time Michigan played in Minneapolis in front of fans and with an actual offseason of preparation, this writer was a freshman in college. He is now supposedly a real adult, with taxes and his own health insurance and a distressing inability to stay awake past midnight very often anymore. In other words, it has been a while.

In the time since, Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines have returned to the sport's elite, winning consecutive Games over Ohio state and consecutive Big Ten championships, and making consecutive Playoff appearances. What's more: They lose very little. The Wolverines rank 4th in returning production. Just one other team who finished last year in the AP Top 10 ranks in the top 30 of this metric (Washington). If Harbaugh is to win a national championship, this feels like the year.

Offensively, UM basically has everything. Is J.J. McCarthy an All-American quarterback? Probably not, but he enters the season as arguably the Big Ten's best or second-best. He can run, he can take shots downfield, and he takes care of the ball. Four out of five starting linemen return, and so do both stellar tailbacks, Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. This backfield-line combination ranked 10th in rushing success rate a year ago. The only relative shortcoming in the offense is in the receiver room, which lacks a definite star but is nevertheless solid.

The Michigan defense lost some playmakers to the NFL but is not in a dicey spot at all, largely due to the experience of their former second-stringers. (The defense ranks 3rd in returning production.) Mike Sainristil, a speedy slot receiver the last time these teams played, has become one of the better slot defenders in the conference, disrupting both pass and run. Will Johnson has enough experience to be a reliable starter at corner, and all-conference honorable mentions Rod Moore and Makari Page are back at safety. Kris Jenkins, Mason Graham, Rayshaun Benny, and Cam Goode are a meaty and seasoned quartet of tackles, averaging 306 pounds and totaling 100 career games between them. Former Coastal Carolina star Josaiah Stewart arrives to supplement an already decent pass rush, and every key linebacker returns, led by Michael Barrett and Junior Colson.

Put more briefly: One of the best teams in the country from a year ago enters the fall nearly unchanged. Ohio State and Penn State always have the potential to be better, but Michigan is the safest pick for the Big Ten title.

* * *

Similarly, Iowa is the team most likely to win the final edition of the Big Ten West. There are fairly wide ranges of outcomes for the Hawkeyes' rivals, but we know exactly what Iowa is.

Phil Parker's defense might not be the best in the country anymore after the departures of Riley Moss, Kaevon Merriweather, and Jack Campbell, among others... but are you going to bet against it being one of the best in the country? Cooper DeJean looks like he'll be at least as good as Moss at corner, if not better. Former 5-star Xavier Nwankpa is about to take Merriweather's place after playing a minor role as a true freshman. Virginia transfer Nick Jackson and a handful of seniors form the remade linebacker corps and should at least provide stability. Even losing tackle Noah Shannon to an NCAA suspension may not prove that damaging, since Iowa has experience (senior Logan Lee and junior Yahya Black) and pedigree (4-star true sophomore Aaron Graves) to cover for Shannon.

What's more, the offense will be better — both by default and through genuine improvements. An injured Spencer Petras is practically gone (remaining on scholarship as sort of an honorary coach), and Alex Padilla is gone gone (now at SMU), creating an opening for transfer Cade McNamara. McNamara was game manager supreme in his one full season at Michigan, throwing almost two-thirds of his passes within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage or behind it (per PFF). That counts as an upgrade over what Iowa had.

No, the wide receiver group isn't impressive, and no, the line isn't nearly where it should be. But McNamara will have a couple of high-level tight ends to throw to in Luke Lachey and fellow UM import Erick All. Not to mention Kaleb Johnson, Iowa's explosive, 222-pound tailback.

To top it all off, Tory Taylor is back for another season, now indisputably the Big Ten's best punter with Rutgers' Adam Korsak gone. Avoiding Michigan and Ohio State, and playing the Minnesota game at Kinnick Stadium instead of in Minneapolis, might be the final edges the Hawkeyes need to win another division title.

* * *

Michigan State has had one of the worst secondaries in the power conferences for two years running. Whether significant continuity — albeit losing their best defensive back, safety Xavier Henderson — foreshadows improvement or is a bad thing is an "eye of the beholder" situation. Starters Charles Brantley (corner), Angelo Grose (safety), and Chester Kimbrough (slot) are the leading incumbents.

The Spartans have added three transfers with some experience, but no one you can confidently count as a major upgrade. Corner Terry Roberts is the closest of the three to "proven" but recorded only 43.5 total tackles over his four years at Iowa. He's an asset on special teams, at least. Another corner, Semar Melvin, played sparingly at Wisconsin. Safety Armorion Smith arrives from Cincinnati, where he had a regular role for about half of last season and was not especially impactful. He's still a redshirt sophomore and could improve.

It's unlikely the Spartans' pass defense takes a leap, but you can see them doing better against the run. This was a lesser but no less real problem a year ago, in large part due to injuries and suspensions in the front six. Aaron Brule, Cal Haladay, and Jacoby Windmon should make for an acceptable set of regular run-stopping linebackers. I'm nevertheless skeptical that Windmon isn't better used at edge rusher, a position where MSU does need help. Tackle Simeon Barrow provided a spark last year, and head coach Mel Tucker has added lots of bulk alongside Barrow: three graduate-transfers weighing 300 pounds or more. If you can't fix the secondary, you can at least try not getting pushed around so much in the trenches.

The Spartans' offense needs to be better as well, and it's difficult to see how it will be. They had one of the Big Ten's worst rushing attacks, posting a success rate of just 39 percent (per CFBD) despite Jalen Berger being a pretty solid tailback. Three every-week senior starters on the line return, plus one part-timer, and junior college signing Keyshawn Blackstock Sr. joins the group. As with the secondary, the offensive line is built with basically the same parts and must prove that won't lead to the same results. Especially with a new quarterback — redshirt junior Noah Kim or former 4-star Katin Houser — who will no longer have Keon Coleman, Jayden Reed, and Daniel Barker as options. It doesn't take that much to imagine this Michigan State season getting dire.

* * *

Illinois was one of 2022's surprises, a team that lost a bunch of longtime starters yet got better. Bret Bielema's team was strong in the trenches and fielded one of the feistiest secondaries in college football, headlined by eventual 1st round pick Devon Witherspoon at corner. Opponents completed just 51.3 percent of their passes, which was the lowest rate allowed by any FBS team.

I was confidently wrong last year that the Illini would be significantly worse in 2022. I don't see 2023 as a complete reset but cannot imagine this defense, the unit that carried U of I, maintaining the same level. There's a new defensive coordinator, Aaron Henry, and all but one member of the starting secondary is new. Especially if Henry continues his predecessor's man-heavy scheme, the latter fact will result in Illinois taking a few lumps. They'll still have one of the Big Ten's meanest fronts — All-American tackle Jer'Zhan Newton; all-conference tackle Keith Randolph Jr.; and all-conference honorable mention linebackers Seth Coleman, Gabe Jacas, and Tarique Barnes return — but a quick passing game may be able to circumvent Illinois' biggest strength relatively easily.

The heart of Illinois' offense, tailback Chase Brown, graduated. His contributions grew smaller as the season went on, as Brown averaged 7.3 yards per carry over his first six games but only 4.3 yards over his last six. Brown was the second-most-used ballcarrier in Division I, and the workload and repeated hits took a toll. It was still a strong season overall, considering every defense knew what was coming.

Brown's former workload will have to be divided up a bit more this season, not just between the running backs but the rest of the offense as well. Illinois does have some good receivers: Isaiah Williams is a YAC merchant, and Pat Bryant and Casey Hightower have each shown some ability on deep routes. Their ability to do damage will depend, however, on Mississippi transfer Luke Altmyer. Tommy DeVito showed that the Illini can have a fairly efficient passing game, if one that was severely limited vertically, through just competent quarterback play. Altmyer has yet to prove he can provide even that.

Illinois again has tons of size up front, and in left guard Isaiah Adams, they could have one of the best interior linemen in the conference. And Barry Lunney Jr. is one of the league's most creative playcallers. That said, if the Illini can't throw the ball, and if the guys replacing Brown can't squeeze through loaded boxes, the advantages they do have may not matter.

* * *

Illinois' brilliant defensive coordinator a season ago, the one who had his cornerbacks playing aggressive press man coverage every down to tremendous effect, was Ryan Walters — the newest head coach at Purdue. While this is not a "Year 0" situation, Walters has some work to do after losing a lot of key pieces from last year's West-winning team.

The problems start on the line. This was already a trouble area for the Boilermakers, one that Jeff and Brian Brohm evaded by calling a bunch of pass plays with short dropbacks and simple reads. It could be more trouble after losing three starters. One of the two that remain, Marcus Mbow, moves to right tackle after playing guard his redshirt freshman season. The new staff evidently doesn't have much confidence in other returner, Mahamane Moussa, considering the official depth chart lists him as one of three possibilities to start at left tackle.

The skill positions are unimpressive but fine enough. Devin Mockobee has gone from walk-on to one of the most bruising running backs in the Big Ten. Texas transfer Hudson Card will not have a good time if he has to stay in the pocket for long, but he can take care of the ball if not asked to do too much. At least one of T.J. Sheffield, Deion Burks, and Abdur Rahmaan Yasseen needs to step up and take a little bit off Card and Mockobee's plates. Whether any of them can is to be determined.

Then there are the plays Purdue will run. Offensive coordinator Graham Harrell comes to West Lafayette after jumping off Neal Brown's sinking West Virginia ship. After a mostly bad tenure at USC, Harrell himself needs to show he can re-find the rhythm he had with North Texas 5 years ago.

Walters' defense has a few pieces but will need a few more. Safeties Cam Brown and Sannousi Kane return, but there are new faces everywhere else in a thin secondary. Former reserve corners at Mississippi and Penn State, Markevious Brown and Marquis Wilson, step into the starting lineup. So does another Thieneman brother — presumably the last, but you never know — the true freshman Dillon. Inexperience lines the rest of the two-deep.

There are more veterans in the box. Outside linebacker Kydran Jenkins had 8.0 TFLs last season, and a couple of transfers step into fill the spots next to returner Cole Brevard on a three-man line. This was still a poor run defense a year ago, ranking 73rd in non-sack yards per carry, and there is no obvious candidate to rectify that. Especially facing a hard schedule, 2023 could be a difficult first year for Purdue's first-time head coach.

* * *

If uncertainty at defensive back catches up to Minnesota in any game this season, it will be at the Horseshoe in Week 12. Ohio State's passing attack tore them to shreds in 2021. While Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are gone, and while the Gophers never had to face the best forms of C.J. Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the Buckeyes' conveyor belt of stars never stops.

Not that you needed me to tell you, but that's Marvin Harrison Jr. He's the best receiver in college football and will most certainly be a top-10 pick in next spring's NFL Draft. He was a consensus All-American a season ago, ranking 4th in FBS in receiving touchdowns and 2nd in receiving yards. He's an excellent route runner on the outside and one of the top contested-ball-winners in America. Any gameplan requires special attention on him.

That gameplan requires your attention in a lot of other directions, too. All-conference players surround Harrison: wideout Emeka Egbuka, tight end Cade Stover, and running back TreVeyon Henderson. And then there's veteran Julian Fleming, plus and plenty of young blue-chippers. For most opponents, it will not matter if Kyle McCord is not the next great Buckeyes quarterback. As long as he is just fine, OSU will score and score and score.

In past seasons, defensive deficiencies meant that the Buckeyes were, at least in one way, mortal. That has changed. While Michigan and Georgia gave them problems again in 2022, OSU ranked 8th in defensive FEI. For comparison, one year prior, they were 41st. Coordinator Jim Knowles has made considerable progress.

Expect OSU to be even better after bringing back most of their key defenders. That starts at edge, with J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer (17.5 and 7.5 havoc plays, respectively). The Buckeyes posted the nation's best sack rate on standard downs a season ago, according to Football Outsiders, yet no individual player had more than 4.5 sacks. Tuimoloau and Sawyer, both top-five prospects in the 2021 class, have more room to grow but are disruptive even without being elite pass rushers. Either could take a major step this season. Star linebacker Tommy Eichenberg will remain an asset just behind them.

The Buckeyes still need to clean up one thing: big plays. They ranked 125th in FBS in preventing explosiveness, per CFBD. The secondary, which has seen a little more turnover, was already the more vulnerable part of this defense. For the Gophers to pull an upset, they'll need to hurt the Buckeyes deep.

* * *

The day after Minnesota defended their right to Paul Bunyan's Axe for the first time in almost three decades, Wisconsin hired Luke Fickell. By most standards, this registered as a surprise: If he was ever going to leave Cincinnati, it seemed like Fickell — the Ohio lifer, the devout Catholic, the biggest-name coach at any middle-class job — was supposed to make his move to Ohio State, Notre Dame, or one of the other heavy hitters of the Big Ten East. Maybe even the NFL. Instead, Fickell went to Madison.

The last time the Badgers went away from the Barry Alvarez tree, they got Gary Andersen, whose tenure was not a failure but created cracks Paul Chryst had to repair. Fickell will almost certainly be better than Andersen. His teams will just look a bit different. Defensive coordinator Mike Tressel will still field a 3-4. In time, Wisconsin's "big people" will probably prefer UW to out-of-state options, even if a good few of them in the 2024 class are set to leave for elsewhere.

What will be different is Phil Longo's offense. While Longo and Fickell aren't stupid enough to abandon the run with Braelon Allen and Chez Mellusi in the backfield, the Badgers will now take most of their snaps from shotgun, and they will play at a much greater pace. There are no more fullbacks. This won't be a "true" air raid as long as Chryst's personnel is still around, but it's not far off.

Tanner Mordecai will head this offense. Last year at SMU, in a similar scheme, he put up gaudy numbers: 3,524 yards and 33 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. There remains false assumption by that air raid passers are interchangeable, and one isn't especially better than any other, and all their stats are fake. But like in any other system, there are good quarterbacks, and there are bad ones. Mordecai is one of the good ones. Chimere Dike will be his best option, but the Badgers' potentially large rotation of second- and third-year wideouts has some talent.

The passing attack was only one of Wisconsin's problems, though. In Chryst's last couple seasons, Wisconsin slid from setting the national standard for offensive line play to being rather pedestrian up front. Most of last year's starters are back, joined by Cincinnati transfer Joe Huber at left guard. None of the starting five have earned better than honorable mentions on an all-conference team, and none of them have in-game experience in this system. They will have that experience by Week 13, but for especially the early part of the season, there could be some growing pains. This position group has the most to prove on offense.

That is not remotely true of the Badgers' defensive front, even after losing star nose tackle Keeanu Benton and edge rusher Nick Herbig. Rodas Johnson, Gio Paez, and James Thompson Jr. form an experienced trio on the line. Inside linebacker Maema Njongmeta and outside linebacker C.J. Goetz combined for 19.5 tackles for loss a season ago. To boot, the Badgers have upperclassmen across the second string, including Michigan State transfer Jeff Pietrowski backing up Goetz. This is always a mean group, and it will stay that way.

The back end needs to improve. While not in disastrous shape, the Badgers were middling in most major passing statistics other than sacks; their ranks in success rate (49th), yards per attempt (59th), and yards per completion (69th) were all underwhelming for an otherwise top defense. Still, there is continuity. While sixth-years Kamoi'i Latu, Alexander Smith, and Jason Maitre (a Boston College transfer) probably won't find another gear, Ricardo Hallman and former 4-star Hunter Wohler could take steps forward in their first years as full-time starters. The secondary still needs to find some disruption to make up for losing John Torchio, and the depth chart looks a bit thin, but the five regulars can at least match last year's level of decency. Whether they can be anything more than that may determine whether the Axe stays in Minneapolis.

* * * * * *

According to SP+, Minnesota's schedule is the 17th-hardest in the country. It's not difficult  to see the Gophers going 0-4 over their four probably toughest games — versus Michigan and away to North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio State — which would end any hopes of a major bowl off the top. That's before we get to the black box that is a Week 1 Nebraska, chances to avenge losses against Illinois and Purdue, and fighting back potential rebounds from Michigan State and especially Wisconsin.

Maybe Minnesota as a team is better this year. The schedule is so unforgiving, however, that their record probably won't show it.

Predicted regular season record: 7-5

Predicted bowl: Motor City Bowl (Detroit, Michigan) vs. Ohio