July 10, 2019

An Argument for Each Minnesota Twin to Have Made the All-Star Game This Year

Last night, the MLB All-Star Game took place in Cleveland. Three players – José Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, and Jorge Polanco – represented the Twins on the American League roster. Minnesota leads the Central by 5.5 games and finished the first half with the best offense in franchise history and one of the two best in baseball.

For a team with such ability, it seems unfitting that only three players, including one position player, would be All-Stars. There are some other Twins who definitely had an argument to be included. There are true snubs, like Max Kepler, and there are guys who might have deserved a spot among the reserves, like Taylor Rogers. But why stop there? This is one of the majors' best teams, and it's been that way despite losing some key position players to injuries over the past month. Surely a lot of other guys have résumés that were worth considering.

Excluding the three All-Stars, 38 players have appeared in a game for the Twins this season. Below are reasons for all 38 of them to have been All-Stars too, beginning with the least deserving and ending with the most deserving. Let us begin.


38. P Andrew Vasquez


Stats: 3 batters faced, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 HBP

On April 10, Odorizzi had a horrid fifth inning. After getting Mets catcher Wilson Ramos to ground out to third, he gave up a single to Jeff McNeil and walked the next two batters, loading the bases for Noah Syndergaard. Odorizzi threw the first pitch to Syndergaard to the backstop, but fortunately, McNeil forgot how to play baseball, and he was thrown out returning to third. (That out, by Win Probability Added, was the most impactful play of the game.) With a little bit of pressure relieved, Odorizzi... reloaded the bases with a six-pitch walk of the pitcher. He promptly left the game.

To end the threat and protect the Twins' one-run lead, Rocco Baldelli brought in the lefty Vasquez. Vasquez missed the zone with his first two pitches and plunked Brandon Nimmo with his third, bringing home a run and tying the game. He walked the next two hitters and let in two more runs, and Baldelli was done with him. Trevor Hildenberger let three more runs before the Twins finally escaped the inning with a five-run deficit. Vasquez threw two strikes on 13 pitches. He has not returned to the majors since.

So why does Vasquez deserve to be an All-Star? I don't have the best answer for that. I can say with confidence, however, that he would be the first pitcher to ever make the All-Star Game with an ERA of infinity that season. I doubt he wants that distinction, but it would surely be a good item of trivia.

37. P Austin Adams


Stats with MIN: 2.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 5 K, 3 BB, 0 HBP

Since the Twins waived right-handed reliever Austin Adams in May after two appearances, the Tigers decided to give Adams a shot. It went very poorly. His season ERA is 7.02, and he's walked 16.3 percent of the batters he's faced. Detroit designated him for assignment on Sunday.

But you know who's been very good? Right-handed reliever Austin Adams. Since the Nationals dumped him in May after one appearance, he's been stellar for the Mariners. For Seattle, Adams has struck out 41 batters in 23.1 innings and only allowed two homers. He's embraced throwing his 89-mile-per-hour slider despite a high-velocity, high-spin fastball, and he's turned into a top reliever.

Austin Lance Adams deserves recognition for his great season. Unfortunately, he hit the Injured List on Saturday. If we put Austin David Adams in the All-Star Game in his stead, maybe people won't notice.

36. P Chase De Jong


Stats: 1.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 1 HR, 0 K, 3 BB, 0 HBP

There have only ever been three major-leaguers with the name De Jong or DeJong. Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong was a reserve for the National League. If Chase De Jong had faced Paul DeJong, it would have been the first batter-pitcher matchup in MLB history (basically) named De Jong. It wouldn't actually count because the All-Star Game is only an exhibition, but it's technically a major-league game. Let's make history.

(These two faced each other 13 times in the minors, in case you were wondering. De Jong struck out DeJong three times and walked DeJong once, and De Jong allowed one hit to DeJong, a double.)

35. P Sean Poppen


Stats: 4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 HR, 2 K, 4 BB, 0 HBP

Between the minors and majors this season, Poppen has allowed just 0.08 home runs per nine innings. Despite facing a juiced ball for much of the year in Triple-A and for a cup of coffee in the majors, Poppen has kept the ball in the park. Baseball needs fewer homers. Poppen can make that happen.

34. 1B Tyler Austin


Stats with MIN: 1-4, 2B, 3 K, 1 BB, 0-0 SB

Austin became expendable with the acquisitions of C.J. Cron, Nelson Cruz, and Marwin Gonzalez, so in early April, he was shipped off to San Francisco for a minor-leaguer.

He's not exactly doing well with the Giants, but he's had his moments. Look at this nifty play in left field, for example:



He might have made this play look far harder than it should have been – Statcast gave it a 4-percent hit probability – but he still made the play. And he's still hitting home runs. His isolated power since the trade is .221, which is second-best among Giants regulars. He walks a good bit and strikes out a ton, too, making him somewhat representative of modern hitting. Why not put some more of the Three True Outcomes in an exhibition of baseball in 2019?

33. OF LaMonte Wade Jr.


Stats: 0-2, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 0-1 SB

Wade hit the Injured List after dislocating his thumb against the Rangers on Saturday, making it unlikely he could have played Tuesday. But who says he couldn't have fill in at designated hitter? He's reached base in half of his plate appearances, and scored a run, without even getting a hit. Not even Mike Trout has a .500 on-base-percentage.

32. P Adalberto Mejía


Stats: 15.1 IP, 8.80 ERA, 9.4 H/9, 1.8 HR/9, 8.8 K/9, 7.0 BB/9, 0 HBP

Mejía has pitched 13.2 career innings over three starts at the former Jacobs Field. His ERA in that sample is 1.32, his second-lowest ERA at a park where he's pitched more than one inning. Only at Fenway Park can you expect him to allow fewer runs. If he was in Cleveland on Tuesday, he might just have done better than you think.

31. P Trevor Hildenberger


Stats: 14.0 IP, 8.36 ERA, 15.4 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 9.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2 HBP

After a great start to his MLB career in 2017, Hildenberger's stock has gone straight down due to a sharp decline in his ground ball rate. ERA predictors suggest he's not having a terrible year though: His FIP is 3.42, which is solidly above-average. He doesn't strike many guys out, but he prevented home runs while in the majors this season and has always had solid control. (We're deliberately ignoring everything else.) That sounds like a solid pitcher who could fill in as an All-Star reserve if there's an injury.

30. P Ryan Eades


Stats: 3.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 HR, 5 K, 2 BB, 0 HBP

He's hardly seen the majors, but in the time that he's seen of it, Eades struck out nearly a third of his opponents without allowing a run. He even struck out Kyle Seager, who made the All-Star Game in 2014. Based on his 5.95 ERA at Triple-A, one might think Eades is just more comfortable facing the world's best hitters.

29. P Fernando Romero


Stats: 8.0 IP, 7 ER, 12 H, 2 HR, 8 K, 5 BB, 1 HBP

Romero has struggled in his first couple of tastes of the big leagues, but at 24 years old, he remains an exciting prospect. His fastball can reach the high 90s with life, and his slurve is a work of art.



Of course, it doesn't really matter how good the breaking ball is if he can't locate it. But he's got a fun arsenal to watch, and the All-Star Game is about having meaningless fun.

28. P Lewis Thorpe


Stats: 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 HR, 7 K, 2 BB, 0 HBP

Of the three Australians to make the All-Star Game, two (Grant Balfour and Liam Hendriks) began their careers with the Twins. Both, however, made it as A's. It's unfortunate that Australians must leave the Twins to become All-Stars. Thorpe could have been the first to become one as a Twin.

27. OF Jake Cave


Stats: .179/.299/.243, 1 HR, 9.2% BB%, 32.2% K%, 0-0 SB

Cave has been hit by five pitches in 87 plate appearances. If he maintained that pace over 600 plate appearances (roughly a full season), he would be hit 31 times. Just once this century has a player in either league been hit 31 times in a season. The All-Star Game is supposed to showcase players with elite skills. Cave's minor league stats don't suggest he's an elite hit batsman, but he's sure playing like one this season.

26. P Zack Littell


Stats: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 10.8 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 7.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0 HBP

According to Baseball Savant, Littell's batted ball profile is comparable to that of Lucas Giolito last season. Giolito is one of the game's best pitchers and certainly an All-Star. If Littell is like an All-Star, shouldn't he be an All-Star?

25. P Kohl Stewart


Stats: 17.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 8.3 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 2.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 0 HBP

In 2003, Pirates closer Mike Williams made the All-Star team while walking more batters than he struck out that season. Williams was the only Pirate to make the All-Star Game, and he shouldn't have. While he also had that distinction the year prior, when he finished third in the NL in saves and posted a 2.93 ERA, in 2003, he was terrible. His ERA before being traded to the Phillies was 6.27.

The Pirates had a handful of good players who could have gone instead. Unfortunately, they weren't appreciated in their time. Jason Kendall is known now as much for being one of the era's best hitting catchers as he is for not being recognized as such at the time. Outfielders Reggie Sanders and Ken Giles posted OPS of .913 and .951, respectively, but their home run totals and batting averages were less impressive. Julián Tavárez was actually the team's best reliever, but he didn't close games until after Williams was gone. Jeff Suppan and Kip Wells were both solid starters, but they didn't accumulate wins because their teammates weren't very good.

The only player to get into the All-Star Game this century with more walks than strikeouts basically got there by default. He didn't make it because he had other skills; he made it because someone had to go, and the players and coaches who selected him knew his name and liked saves.

To be clear: This isn't some travesty. Usually, if you walk more guys than you strike out, you're bad. Stewart is probably bad. As the former fourth overall pick though, Stewart has the prospect pedigree to suggest he might be not bad. That likely doesn't mean much, but he might turn this into a good season that justifies being selected for the All-Star Game. At the very least, he might deserve some credit for maintaining a relatively normal 4.15 ERA in such an offense-heavy year without strikeout stuff.

24. P Devin Smeltzer


Stats: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 7.0 H/9, 2.2 HR/9, 7.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0 HBP

Smeltzer does not look like a particularly interesting pitcher. I mean, he wears glasses. How often does a pitcher with glasses impress? Not only that, but his numbers aren't very good. He gets a decent number of strikeouts and doesn't walk many hitters, but when opponents make contact on Smeltzer's pitches, they hammer them. He's allowing a .266 isolated slugging, which is only a point or two behind what Dan Vogelbach and Matt Chapman do to other pitchers.

Smeltzer is a soft-tosser, but it's worth noting that he's got good offspeed stuff. His changeup allows a comparable wOBA to Dallas Keuchel and Noah Syndergaard's. In an era of increased offspeed usage, it doesn't make much sense for Smeltzer to throw his fastball half the time. It's the pitch that gets outs. If he throws enough of them, he might look like an All-Star.

23. P Mike Morin


Stats: 22.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 7.9 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 4.4 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, 2 HBP

Among pitchers who have thrown 20 or more innings this season, only two have lower walk rates than Morin's 2.2 percent. Morin is no strikeout artist, but he has truly elite command.

22. UT Willians Astudillo


Stats: .263/.282/.383, 3 HR, 1.4% BB%, 3.5% K%, 0-0 SB

The All-Star Game is as much about showcasing baseball's greatest talents as it is about showcasing baseball fans' favorite players. If it was only about ability, Cal Ripken Jr. and Derek Jeter never would have made their final All-Star Games. It's an exhibition. It's supposed to be fun.

Astudillo is perhaps the baseball world's favorite utility player. Stats nerds love him for being the ultimate rarity in 2019, a baseball player who neither walks nor strikes out and might still be useful. Other fans love him for having a decidedly unusual appearance for a baseball player but pulling off a series of impressive feats nonetheless. Since appearing in spring training for the Twins last season, Astudillo has picked off a runner at first without looking, gotten another runner out via the hidden ball trick, hit a walk-off home runchugged home to score in the name of "chubby people," played every position except shortstop, and stared at a home run so hard in the Venezuelan Winter League that he probably put holes in it before it landed.

Though 2019 has not been the Year of La Tortuga the way 2018 was, with better batted-ball luck (his BABIP is .241) and fewer injuries, Astudillo can still recover. Besides, people's affection for Astudillo has not waned. Someone this unique and beloved must appear on the national stage.

21. P Tyler Duffey


Stats: 28.1 IP, 3.49 ERA, 8.9 H/9, 1.9 HR/9, 11.1 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 2 HBP

A couple of weeks ago, I analyzed how Baldelli has used his relievers, specifically focusing on how difficult the assignments he gave them are. Duffey has performed admirably in low-leverage situations but hasn't been trusted much to pitch in bigger spots (perhaps because he's allowed seven unearned runs to go with his 11 earned runs). Pitching in the All-Star Game, against some of the National League's best hitters, could test Duffey's abilities in a difficult situation and earn him more of his manager's trust.

20. UT Ehire Adrianza


Stats: .283/.376/.417, 4 HR, 9.8% BB%, 16.1% K%, 0-1 SB

Adrianza is having a career year. His .793 OPS is the best he's had as a major leaguer, and adjusted for environment, it's 13 percent better than major-league average. That's not bad for a utility infielder without any offensive reputation. Throw in his decent defensive contributions, and you have a pretty good season. At 29 years old, it's unlikely that Adrianza repeats this. That means he'll probably never have another argument to be an All-Star. We should've granted him this one.

19. P Michael Pineda


Stats: 92.2 IP, 4.56 ERA, 9.0 H/9, 1.6 HR/9, 8.2 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 4 HBP

Can you believe that Pineda is 30 years old? In 2011, he was an All-Star and finished fifth in Rookie of the Year voting after a solid first season with the Mariners. After a trade to the Yankees, his career was derailed by shoulder injuries. He missed the next two seasons. He was pretty good when he returned in 2014, demonstrating excellent control and keeping the ball in the park. But he stayed just "pretty good" for the rest of his time in the Bronx until he had Tommy John surgery just before hitting free agency.

When he returned to the majors with the Twins, Pineda struggled initially. His first couple of starts went alright, but his average game score over the next five was 37.2. Since then, however, he's recovered nicely. In the 10 starts since, his average game score has been 56.3. His last two starts were his best: He struck out 17 over a combined 12 innings and allowed just two runs. He's on an upward trajectory.

Making Pineda an All-Star would have been the culmination of a redemption arc for a former top prospect whom injuries turned into a "what if?" story. Wouldn't that be nice?

18. P Blake Parker


Stats: 31.0 IP, 3.77 ERA, 8.1 H/9, 2.0 HR/9, 8.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2 HBP

For three straight years, Parker has posted a strand rate significantly higher than normal, which is not sustainable unless you're otherwise quite good. In only one of those years, Parker was indeed quite good. I won't say which year it was, but he could have been an All-Star that year. We could have made up for his being snubbed (we're using a loose definition here) with an All-Star selection.

17. P Matt Magill


Stats: 27.0 IP, 4.67 ERA, 8.7 H/9, 1.0 HR/9, 11.0 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 2 HBP

Magill is one of many pitchers who have altered their approaches recently, eschewing the fastball in favor of more and more breaking balls. He's accepted a higher walk rate as the price of getting more strikeouts and allowing fewer homers. The different philosophy has only improved Magill from a bad pitcher to an okay one, but that improvement is the difference between pitching in Triple-A and pitching in the majors. Shouldn't he get credit for that?

16. UT Luis Arraez


Stats: .393/.453/.524, 2 HR, 10.5% BB%, 8.4% K%, 1-2 SB

At just 22 years old, Arraez already looks like a major-leaguer who can play multiple positions well. Even once his BABIP stabilizes, he could be a solid player for years to come. Let's just get in on this early and make him an All-Star.

15. P Trevor May


Stats: 32.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 7.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 10.0 K/9, 4.7 BB/9, 3 HBP

May has dramatically decreased the number of home runs he allows, and his average exit velocity allowed currently sits in the 98th percentile of the majors. If you want to know what changed, here's a start:

L: 2018; R: 2019
(via FanGraphs)

May is throwing lower in the zone. He's also throwing in the zone less often than he ever has, which has resulted in a trimmed strikeout rate and increased walk rate. However, if you believe that a pitcher can affect the quality of the batted balls he allows (and it's always been questionable how much they can), May has been one of the best in the majors at preventing the balls in play he allows from hurting him too much. If you're one of the best in the majors at something, maybe you should have a place in the All-Star Game.

14. P Ryne Harper


Stats: 37.0 IP, 2.92 ERA, 7.5 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 1 HBP

I mean, look at this curveball.


13. UT Marwin González


Stats: .255/.319/.420, 10 HR, 7.2% BB%, 22.6% K%, 1-1 SB

González is hitting the ball harder than he ever has, and he's hitting more line drives and fewer fly balls, yet his BABIP is roughly what it's always been. If a few more balls fell, he'd be having a really good season; instead, he's had a decent one. I'm willing to bet that by the end of the year, González's overall numbers will look more like those of an All-Star.

12. 1B C.J. Cron


Stats: .266/.326/.495, 17 HR, 6.9% BB%, 19.3% K%, 0-0

Like González, Cron looks like he should be hitting better than he actually is. He's striking out less and hitting the ball hard, but the results haven't been quite what you'd expect from a hitter of his profile.

The difference is that Cron's stats are already good. Giving him some benefit of the doubt makes him a top slugger and a deserving All-Star instead of just a guy who might look like he warrants a little more consideration.

11. 3B/1B Miguel Sanó


Stats: .236/.321/.574, 13 HR, 11.3% BB%, 38.1% K%, 0-0 SB

If he didn't miss the first month or so of the season, there's a good chance Sanó is an All-Star already. He's obliterating the ball and maintaining a 128 wRC+ despite one of the game's highest strikeout rates and a merely good walk rate. His defense and baserunning have neither hurt nor helped the Twins appreciably. He's just mashed at an All-Star level.

10. P Martín Pérez


Stats: 95.0 IP, 4.26 ERA, 8.5 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 8.1 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 2 HBP

It's fair to worry that perhaps Pérez is slowing down after his terrific start to 2019. His ERA over his last eight starts was 6.00. But a closer look suggests he's gotten some bad luck. Opponents only managed a .713 OPS in those games. That's equal to Amed Rosario's OPS this season. With better cluster luck, Pérez's line probably looks a whole lot more normal.

With his fancy new cutter, Pérez has been one of the Twins' most reliable pitchers. Instead of just eating innings until the team trades for someone else, he's increased his strikeout rate to a career high and stopped giving up as many home runs as he did his last two years in Texas. He's gone from a scrap-heap minor-league signing to a mid-rotation starter on the best team in the AL Central. It's a great story that I bet would play well on a national broadcast.

9. P Kyle Gibson


Stats: 94.2 IP, 4.09 ERA, 8.7 H/9, 1.2 HR/9, 8.9 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 5 HBP

There's nothing particularly remarkable about Gibson's 2019. He's in the second year of a new, more strikeout-heavy phase of his career that started last season, and he's been a respectable No. 3 starter. The Twins aren't the best team in the Central because of Gibson, but their lead on the Indians is slimmer without him. Every staff needs someone like Gibson. Alex Cora might have liked Gibson coming out of the bullpen if the game went into extra innings last night.

8. 2B Jonathan Schoop


Stats: .260/.311/.469, 14 HR, 3.9% BB%, 24.3% K%, 1-1 SB

Among qualified hitters, Schoop has the sixth-lowest walk rate. Nobody with a lower walk rate strikes out as much as Schoop, yet nobody has a higher home run total or ISO. His profile at the plate is rare: Most guys who strike out a lot but hit home runs walk, most guys who don't walk but hit home runs don't strike out a lot, and most guys who strike out a lot and don't walk are just bad hitters. Such a rare kind of hitter should be marveled at, and I can think of no better setting for marveling at baseball players than the All-Star Game.

7. C Jason Castro


Stats: .257/.331/.529, 10 HR, 8.9% BB%, 24.8% K%, 0-0 SB

6. C Mitch Garver


Stats: .295/.375/.609, 13 HR, 9.7% BB%, 26.1% K%, 0-0 SB

By fWAR, the Twins have had the American League's most valuable catchers this season. Garver is the primary choice behind the plate and has played better, but he missed some time with an injury, and Castro has been effective, too. The two have combined for an ISO of .294, which would rank 12th in baseball if they could combine to qualify for the batting title. Additionally, Garver improved his framing this offseason, giving the Twins two solid defensive catchers. They've both been excellent. With a larger sample, either would be an All-Star.

5. DH Nelson Cruz


Stats: .279/.367/.554, 16 HR, 10.9% BB%, 28.1% K%, 0-1 SB

There are only a handful of true designated hitters in baseball anymore. Most AL teams have a primary DH who will occasionally see time in the field, otherwise rotating the DH spot between guys who need rest that day. Jorge Soler, for example, has started 90 games for the Royals, and 50 starts have come at DH. Eight players have combined to start the 35 other games at DH in which the Royals had one.

Only three or four players have no use for their gloves: Renato Núñez of the Orioles (13 appearances in the field), Khris Davis of the Athletics (four), Shohei Ohtani of the Angels (zero), and Cruz (zero). Only Ohtani has rivaled Cruz's production this season. They've posted practically identical numbers in home runs (Ohtani: 14; Cruz: 16), ISO, (.268, .275), OPS (.924, .921), and wRC+ (143, 138); and Cruz has made up for striking out more than Ohtani by walking in almost 11 percent of his plate appearances.

Considering that Ohtani is a two-way player who's just taking a year-long break from pitching due to injury, it's reasonable to say that Cruz is the best true DH in the game. He should have filled that role in the All-Star Game.

4. LF Eddie Rosario


Stats: .282/.312/.529, 20 HR, 4.3% BB%, 13.9% K%, 3-4 SB

Rosario has been the Twins' best position player for the past three seasons, churning out solid offensive performances at the plate and throwing out baserunners with ease. He's become a much better contact hitter with time, and this season, he's hitting the ball harder than he ever has. On pace for a 36-homer season, Rosario is having another great year. He easily could have made the All-Star Game; he even was a candidate in the Starters Election.

3. P Taylor Rogers


Stats: 39.2 IP, 1.82 ERA, 7.3 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 11.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 4 HBP

Rogers is a bona fide ace at the back of the Minnesota bullpen. He strikes out hitters of both handedness, he doesn't allow walks or home runs, he faces the toughest opponents in the tightest spots, and he keeps the other team off the board. Relievers shouldn't make the All-Star Game unless they're one of the absolute best in the game. Rogers unequivocally is one of the best in the game.

2. CF Byron Buxton


Stats: .253/.314/.502, 9 HR, 7.3% BB%, 22.7% K%, 12-15 SB

Buxton might be the most fun player in baseball. He unquestionably is one of the fastest and has one of the strongest arms. His baserunning and defense alone make him worth two or three wins a year if his offense is just mediocre. If his offense is above average – which it is this year – he's good enough to be an All-Star.

Plus, why shouldn't this transcendent athleticism be on display for the whole country?


1. RF Max Kepler


Stats: .263/.337/.523, 21 HR, 9.6% BB%, 15.6% K%, 1-5 SB

Last season, Kepler became playable against right-handed pitching. This season, he's continued his upward trajectory and become one of the best outfielders in baseball. He's arguably the American League's top defensive right fielder, and he's hitting like Nolan Arenado to boot. If Jorge Polanco isn't the Twins' best position player, then Kepler is. Kepler should have been in Cleveland. He hits well there, after all.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.