Though it's tempting to consider any opponent from FCS an automatic win if you're a Big Ten team, the reality is that not all FCS teams are pushovers. North Dakota State is obviously the best program in the subdivision, winning seven national titles in the last eight years, upsetting multiple Power Five opponents, and routinely finishing in the top 40 of Jeff Sagarin's rankings of all of Division I.
One of the other top programs in FCS is the Bison's rivals in the Missouri Valley Football Conference, the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. SDSU has been in Division I since 2004, and since making the jump, they've had two losing seasons and made the playoffs eight times, advancing at least a round six of those times. They've made the final STATS Poll and Coaches Poll each of the last seven seasons and finished in the top seven the last three seasons. The Jacks' only win over an FBS opponent was over hapless Kansas in 2015, but they scared TCU the following year and were higher than more than half of FBS in the 2018 Sagarin rankings. John Stiegelmeier's program is no slouch or body-bag opponent.
2018 in Review
The regular season was a game shorter than usual after the season opener at Iowa State was canceled because of severe weather. That cost SDSU a chance to show how good they are against a Power 5 opponent, but perhaps it saved them energy that they needed for the rest of their schedule.
Against more than half the teams they faced, the Jacks were unstoppable, even in FCS' best conference. They beat seven teams by more than 10 points, averaging a 40.3-point win in those games. That includes blowouts of top-25 teams Montana State and Duquesne, and it doesn't count an impressive win in the FCS quarterfinals over Kennesaw State.
But South Dakota State continued to struggle against their rivals at North Dakota State, dropping games in Fargo in both the regular season and semifinals. Though the Jackrabbits have beaten the Bison twice this decade, they don't have any national titles. The one time they won the MVFC, they still split the conference championship with NDSU and lost to them in the quarterfinals. You can't fault the Jacks for not being the gold standard of FCS, but it's surely frustrating to finish second to their rivals so often.
But South Dakota State continued to struggle against their rivals at North Dakota State, dropping games in Fargo in both the regular season and semifinals. Though the Jackrabbits have beaten the Bison twice this decade, they don't have any national titles. The one time they won the MVFC, they still split the conference championship with NDSU and lost to them in the quarterfinals. You can't fault the Jacks for not being the gold standard of FCS, but it's surely frustrating to finish second to their rivals so often.
Offense
Led by quarterback Taryn Christion and receiver Cade Johnson, the Jacks had one of FCS' most prolific passing games. Four teams threw more touchdown passes, and only San Diego averaged more yards per attempt.
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| Click to enlarge passing stats. |
Christion, for all his accolades and program records, was not a perfect quarterback: He played four games in which his completion rate was 50 percent or less. But on his best days, he was a star, providing proficiency in the pocket and mobility outside of it.
Nelson was rated a two-star pro-style quarterback prospect by one service, but he was definitely not a pro-style quarterback. In his senior season (his fourth on varsity), he ran for 1,189 yards and 20 touchdowns and threw for 734 yards and eight touchdowns. Since coming to Brookings, Nelson impressed as an early enrollee in the 2016 spring game and obviously has spent more time in the SDSU offense than Gibbs has.
Gibbs, a three-year starter, two-time first-team all-state selection, and two-time state champion in Chicago, only received offers from SDSU and Eastern Michigan. No major recruiting services rated him. He threw for more than 2,000 yards and 24 touchdowns as a senior to go with more than 600 yards and seven touchdowns as a runner. Unlike Nelson, whose second sport was tennis, Gibbs also ran track.
It's hard to say how good either will be as a college passer, but we can bet that their legs make them at least an equal running threat to what Christion was.
Whoever succeeds Christion inherits most of his weapons, which makes the transition easier.
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| Click to enlarge receiving stats. |
Johnson, one of the top receivers in FCS, is a do-it-all playmaker who has the speed and agility to evade defenders in space...
...and also the ball skills to be a threat in the red zone.
Containing him is crucial.
Christion's other favorite option was Adam Anderson. If Johnson is the Jacks' playmaker, Anderson is their safety blanket. He posted fewer yards per catch than Johnson but a higher catch rate, and he is three inches taller, allowing him to make more catches over defenders:
Additionally, you have to worry about tight ends Blake Kunz and Kallan Hart, who combined for about 3.5 targets per game and were respectable with the ball in their hands.
And then there are the running backs.
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| Click to enlarge rushing stats. |
As good as SDSU was at throwing the ball last season, they were about as good running it. Excluding sacks, they averaged 6.7 yards per carry; including them (which most college stats sources do for no logical reason), their 6.4 yards per carry was fourth-best in FCS.
The Jacks used a large stable of ballcarriers last season. Christion was an effective scrambler, and either Nelson or Gibbs should be in his place. Mikey Daniel, at 6 feet, 225 pounds, is the Jacks' power back and led the team in carries, but he lost carries as Pierre Strong earned more reps with explosive runs like these:
Strong has the quick burst to break into the second level and the power and size (he's 5 feet 11 inches tall and weighs 200 pounds) to drag tacklers with him for a few extra yards.
C.J. Wilson missed six games last season. When he was healthy though, he got a good number of carries. He isn't as fast as Strong or as thick as Daniel, but he's well-built and can make space for himself with a quick cut and enough speed to get into the open field.
Considering the Gopher defense's past struggles with explosive runners, defensive coordinator Joe Rossi has a real challenge in front of him with these SDSU skill players.
Stiegelmeier lost offensive coordinator Eric Eidsness to Northern Illinois, but he found a replacement in-house with former run game coordinator Jason Eck, who is also the offensive line coach. One would think we won't see a dramatic change in philosophy.
Under Eidsness, the Jacks liked 11 personnel but often added an additional tight end or fullback Luke Sellers, who is exclusively a blocker. Formations can vary dramatically. For example: In the first game against NDSU, Christion was alone in the backfield with quads to his left.
A play later, his receivers were bunched up at the line of scrimmage, with Sellers going in motion from right to left. (He's just behind the left tackle below.)
Then, one more play later, they gave a more traditional look, with two receivers to the field side and a tight end next to the X on the boundary side. Notice that the running back is even with Christion rather than two yards behind him, as he was in the previous look.
Varying their formations so dramatically, especially when paired with motion, keeps the defense off-balance and might force it to tip what kind of coverage it's playing. It also creates room for players to go. The ample space between receivers in a look like the first or third makes it easier to pass – as there are fewer defenders in one area – or to run up the middle, as Christion did on the quads play. Bunching everyone around the line of scrimmage can create confusion in the box, especially in man coverage, and can free up space to attack the flat:
Though they called plenty of plays with intermediate and long routes, the Jacks used screens, jet sweeps (including tap passes), and swing passes to let their playmakers work. With a new starting quarterback – especially a mobile one – we might see more short throws and runs than long-developing pass plays, but don't be surprised if Eck calls for a deep shot to Johnson or Anderson.
The SDSU offensive line is not wholly intact from last season after losing two multi-year starters, but enough players come back with experience that there shouldn't be a great drop-off in production. All-MVFC honorable mention Evan Greenway is the best returning lineman.
There's a lot to fear about this SDSU offense. It doesn't have FBS talent across the roster, and there's room to worry about the changes at quarterback and coordinator. But the offense's track record suggests that they'll be able to attack opponents both on the ground and through the air. It could keep the game competitive well into the second half and force the Minnesota offense to step up.
Defense
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Without data for all of FCS, I had to estimate the
adjusted turnover stats by using 21.5% as an approximate national rate of interceptions to passes defensed. |
Luckily for any opposing offense, SDSU's defense is not nearly as formidable as their offense.
Like on the other side of the ball, the Jacks have a different coordinator after Clint Brown became the defensive coordinator at Abilene Christian. Safeties coach Brian Bergstrom and linebackers coach Jimmy Rogers will share his former duties at SDSU.
Bergstrom and Rogers' first concern will likely be filling in the holes in their secondary.
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Individual defensive stats exclude all players whose listed position is
something other than defense. However, they include special teams tackles, as it would be too time-consuming to remove those tackles from the data. |
Safeties Brandon Snyder and Makiah Slade and cornerback Jordan Brown graduated, subtracting 21 passes defensed from a unit that already struggled to contain opposing passers. The Jacks allowed the 11th-most yards per pass attempt in FCS. Continuity in the secondary may be more important than in any other defensive position group. Losing so much from the backfield could create big problems.
Josh Manchigiah is by far the most experienced safety returning. Marshon Harris and Zy Mosley (the team's interceptions leader with four) are the veterans at corner, with a series of special teams contributors and underclassmen backing them up. Especially at safety, there are depth issues.
The front seven is in a better state. Third-string nose tackle Zach Dorgan is the only departure from the line. The experience there could mean improvement on an underwhelming 5.1 percent sack rate (which would have ranked in the low hundreds in FBS). They might also benefit from giving more playing time to second-string end Elijah Wilson, nearly a quarter of whose tackles were for a loss.
Still, the Jackrabbits' line is a bit undersized compared to what you see in FBS. Most tackles are around 280 pounds, with Spencer Hildahl being the heaviest defender on the team at 290. The ends average 243.3 pounds. These linemen are movable. The power run game should be available to Minnesota offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca.
Top linebacker Christian Rozeboom, the most disruptive player on last season's defense, is one of three regulars to return in the second level. Seven Wilson saw enough of the field as a backup the last two seasons to step into a starter's role next to Rozeboom and Logan Backhaus.
Against NDSU, the Jacks showed a willingness to keep three linebackers on the field against 11 personnel, with Backhaus on the field side. He led all linebackers with five passes defensed on the season, but he wasn't always equipped to handle someone faster than him:
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| Backhaus starts the play on the hash marks at the 20-yard line. |
If Backhaus lines up against Demetrius Douglas or Chris Autman-Bell, that could be an obvious mismatch to exploit.
Just as a defense has a challenge facing the SDSU offense, the SDSU defense has a challenge facing an improving and multi-dimensional Power 5 offense like the Gophers'.
Special Teams
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| Click to enlarge kicking and punting stats. |
Chase Vinatieri, SDSU alumnus Adam Vinatieri's nephew, will likely break SDSU's career points record this season. He makes most of the field goals he's supposed to, hitting nine of 11 attempts within 40 yards last season, and has enough power to hit the long ones. He set a personal best by hitting a 57-yarder against Northern Iowa.
Brady Hale was not the best punter in the country, but his 42.5 yards per punt ranked 18th in FCS last season. Redshirt sophomore Ben Dinkel, who may succeed him, averaged 39.9 yards as a high school senior, which would have been near the median of FCS last season. The Jackrabbits might not lose much in this department.
The Jacks didn't return any kicks for touchdowns in 2019, but return touchdowns are pretty random. Even without any touchdowns, Johnson's return average was 14th-best in FCS. After seeing him run with the ball in other situations, I'm sure you understand how. Punt returns are a bit more of a problem, but it's a very small deficiency of an otherwise good team.
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| Click to enlarge return stats. |
The Jacks didn't return any kicks for touchdowns in 2019, but return touchdowns are pretty random. Even without any touchdowns, Johnson's return average was 14th-best in FCS. After seeing him run with the ball in other situations, I'm sure you understand how. Punt returns are a bit more of a problem, but it's a very small deficiency of an otherwise good team.
Conclusion
South Dakota State is better than most of the teams in FCS, especially on offense. That offense could make it a close and high-scoring game against Minnesota, at least for a little while. Even if the Minnesota defense has problems containing SDSU's explosive playmakers, it's hard to see a situation in which the Gophers' offense can't outscore them without terrible luck. Expect some grumbling in the stands when the Jacks put together a couple of scoring drives early, but Power 5 athleticism and an uninspiring SDSU defense will decide this game with plenty of time remaining.
Prediction: South Dakota State 27-45 Minnesota
Prediction: South Dakota State 27-45 Minnesota
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