Today, we move onto the Power Five, beginning with the Pac-12.
Pac-12 Conference
North
Predicted standings:
1. Washington (conference champions)
2. Stanford
3. Oregon
4. California
5. Washington State
6. Oregon State
Washington was one of the most talented teams in the country last season, and they didn't even make their conference title game. Don't expect them to fall short again.
Offensively, here is what the Huskies need to replace: All-American Dante Pettis, first-team all-conference center Coleman Shelton, one other starting lineman, second-team all-conference tight end Will Dissly, and a couple of backup tailbacks.
Here is what they get back: Every other targeted wideout minus one, the other five linemen that started games last season (including first-team all-conference tackle Kaleb McGary), tight end Hunter Bryant (third on the team in receptions), two-time all-conference (second-team last year, first the year before) tailback Myles Gaskin, and 2016 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year Jake Browning, still one of the top quarterbacks in America.
Last year's offense ranked 21st in yards per play. With as much as they return, I can see them creeping toward (or even into) the top 10.
The 2017 defense, meanwhile, was absolutely elite. Three teams allowed fewer yards per rush attempt, and even though they gave up a lot of completions, just five teams allowed fewer yards per pass attempt. Three opponents hit 30 points or more: Stanford, Utah, and Penn State. Seven couldn't manage 14. If you played the Huskies, you likely didn't move the ball.
So what assets did this unit lose? Let's go down the list: nose tackle Vita Vea, the conference's Defensive Player of the Year; starting linebacker Keishawn Bierra; a couple linebackers who combined for six spot-starts last season; a safety who made three; and some backups.
Vea was a bigger obstacle in the middle than a broken down M3 Abrams, no doubt. But this defense will press on without him. They have too many excellent players not to, including four players who made first- or second-team All-Pac-12 last year. The team's two leaders in tackles for loss and sacks (Tevis Bartlett and Ryan Bowman) and in pass breakups (Myles Bryant and Byron Murphy) didn't even make all-conference except as honorable mentions. The team is stacked.
If they can beat Auburn; survive UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon; and avoid slip-ups like the Arizona State game last year, then Washington is back in the Pac-12 Championship. Another win, and they're back in the Playoff. I feel confident saying they'll get that far. Maybe this time, unlike in 2016, the Huskies can make it a little further and win the national title.
Offensively, here is what the Huskies need to replace: All-American Dante Pettis, first-team all-conference center Coleman Shelton, one other starting lineman, second-team all-conference tight end Will Dissly, and a couple of backup tailbacks.
Here is what they get back: Every other targeted wideout minus one, the other five linemen that started games last season (including first-team all-conference tackle Kaleb McGary), tight end Hunter Bryant (third on the team in receptions), two-time all-conference (second-team last year, first the year before) tailback Myles Gaskin, and 2016 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year Jake Browning, still one of the top quarterbacks in America.
Last year's offense ranked 21st in yards per play. With as much as they return, I can see them creeping toward (or even into) the top 10.
The 2017 defense, meanwhile, was absolutely elite. Three teams allowed fewer yards per rush attempt, and even though they gave up a lot of completions, just five teams allowed fewer yards per pass attempt. Three opponents hit 30 points or more: Stanford, Utah, and Penn State. Seven couldn't manage 14. If you played the Huskies, you likely didn't move the ball.
So what assets did this unit lose? Let's go down the list: nose tackle Vita Vea, the conference's Defensive Player of the Year; starting linebacker Keishawn Bierra; a couple linebackers who combined for six spot-starts last season; a safety who made three; and some backups.
Vea was a bigger obstacle in the middle than a broken down M3 Abrams, no doubt. But this defense will press on without him. They have too many excellent players not to, including four players who made first- or second-team All-Pac-12 last year. The team's two leaders in tackles for loss and sacks (Tevis Bartlett and Ryan Bowman) and in pass breakups (Myles Bryant and Byron Murphy) didn't even make all-conference except as honorable mentions. The team is stacked.
If they can beat Auburn; survive UCLA, Stanford, and Oregon; and avoid slip-ups like the Arizona State game last year, then Washington is back in the Pac-12 Championship. Another win, and they're back in the Playoff. I feel confident saying they'll get that far. Maybe this time, unlike in 2016, the Huskies can make it a little further and win the national title.
It's pretty lazy to say one player is a team's entire offense just because that player is getting Heisman buzz, but Stanford made it so easy in 2018.
Bryce Love averaged 8.1 yards per carry last season. Three other running backs touched the ball, and none averaged more than Cameron Scarlett's 4.3. (Of course, Scarlett had 174 yards on just six catches, so I don't mean to say he's untalented.)
Quarterback Keller Chryst was either bad or injured, and it took some time for K.J. Costello to look the part as Chryst's replacement. Though he eventually did, the Cardinal averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt for the season. There aren't many players in football who can outdo his team's entire passing game just taking handoffs.
This season, Stanford doesn't have to use Love as their only weapon. He remains their best by far, but the rest of the depth chart looks good enough to do some different things.
Costello was at times a reliable starting quarterback. Against Cal, Notre Dame, and TCU, he averaged 7.6 yards per throw. Of course, he also threw in 45-percent completion rate games against Washington State and USC, so his first season under center wasn't all great. But the flashes he showed, his recruiting pedigree, and his experienced receiving corps (led by J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, whose 64-percent catch rate and 16.3 yards per catch mark last year made him easily the team's best wideout) make me think his sophomore year will go a fair bit better.
(Stanford officially lists Costello as a junior, which is correct in that this is his third year of college. However, since he did not play in his first year on campus, I consider him a redshirt sophomore.
This is the standard term for a player in this situation, but some teams, like Stanford, don't want to use it. I use it and its relatives – redshirt freshman, etc. – because it makes more sense, and because it makes no sense why they do this, except for pompousness, as basically everybody else follows another convention. This alternative practice also makes research more tedious, as I can't tell immediately what important players are gone by just finding all the "SR"s next to important names.)
Love won't have to do everything on the ground, either. Four of Stanford's starting linemen return for 2018, which certainly can't hurt – even if you (fairly) believe, based on the numbers posted by other running backs, that Love entirely powered this rushing attack.
So, guess what: Stanford has an offense, and it isn't just giving the ball to their all-world running back. (Though they will undoubtedly do that a lot.)
This would make the Cardinal a national title contender, but they're merely Pac-12 North contenders because the other side of the ball isn't as set.
Though you may often think of Stanford and good defense, the two should not have been associated last season. Stanford ranked 93rd in yards per play allowed, which, despite a tough schedule, demonstrated a deficiency. Even adjusting for opponent (S&P+ ranked them 59th, Brian Fremeau's DFEI 62nd, and ESPN's Defensive Efficiency 54th) made them look merely average at best.
I usually trust Stanford to have a solid defense just because that's what they usually do, so I'm willing to believe in some kind of bounceback season.
It's easier to believe when you see that the holes, while significant, aren't too many: corners Justin Reid and Quenton Meeks went pro early, tackle Harrison Phillips graduated, and a pair of starting linebackers are gone too. Those are five important players. They will be hard to replace, especially the star corners and Phillips.
But plenty of experienced players are still around. There are enough options at linebacker and in the secondary to find a group of reliable starters. That, combined with David Shaw's run of recruiting success, should keep this defense at least where it was last year, if not lead to improvement. Maybe that doesn't do anything more than keep Stanford where they were already, but the second-best team in the North isn't too thing to be.
Bryce Love averaged 8.1 yards per carry last season. Three other running backs touched the ball, and none averaged more than Cameron Scarlett's 4.3. (Of course, Scarlett had 174 yards on just six catches, so I don't mean to say he's untalented.)
Quarterback Keller Chryst was either bad or injured, and it took some time for K.J. Costello to look the part as Chryst's replacement. Though he eventually did, the Cardinal averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt for the season. There aren't many players in football who can outdo his team's entire passing game just taking handoffs.
This season, Stanford doesn't have to use Love as their only weapon. He remains their best by far, but the rest of the depth chart looks good enough to do some different things.
Costello was at times a reliable starting quarterback. Against Cal, Notre Dame, and TCU, he averaged 7.6 yards per throw. Of course, he also threw in 45-percent completion rate games against Washington State and USC, so his first season under center wasn't all great. But the flashes he showed, his recruiting pedigree, and his experienced receiving corps (led by J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, whose 64-percent catch rate and 16.3 yards per catch mark last year made him easily the team's best wideout) make me think his sophomore year will go a fair bit better.
(Stanford officially lists Costello as a junior, which is correct in that this is his third year of college. However, since he did not play in his first year on campus, I consider him a redshirt sophomore.
This is the standard term for a player in this situation, but some teams, like Stanford, don't want to use it. I use it and its relatives – redshirt freshman, etc. – because it makes more sense, and because it makes no sense why they do this, except for pompousness, as basically everybody else follows another convention. This alternative practice also makes research more tedious, as I can't tell immediately what important players are gone by just finding all the "SR"s next to important names.)
Love won't have to do everything on the ground, either. Four of Stanford's starting linemen return for 2018, which certainly can't hurt – even if you (fairly) believe, based on the numbers posted by other running backs, that Love entirely powered this rushing attack.
So, guess what: Stanford has an offense, and it isn't just giving the ball to their all-world running back. (Though they will undoubtedly do that a lot.)
This would make the Cardinal a national title contender, but they're merely Pac-12 North contenders because the other side of the ball isn't as set.
Though you may often think of Stanford and good defense, the two should not have been associated last season. Stanford ranked 93rd in yards per play allowed, which, despite a tough schedule, demonstrated a deficiency. Even adjusting for opponent (S&P+ ranked them 59th, Brian Fremeau's DFEI 62nd, and ESPN's Defensive Efficiency 54th) made them look merely average at best.
I usually trust Stanford to have a solid defense just because that's what they usually do, so I'm willing to believe in some kind of bounceback season.
It's easier to believe when you see that the holes, while significant, aren't too many: corners Justin Reid and Quenton Meeks went pro early, tackle Harrison Phillips graduated, and a pair of starting linebackers are gone too. Those are five important players. They will be hard to replace, especially the star corners and Phillips.
But plenty of experienced players are still around. There are enough options at linebacker and in the secondary to find a group of reliable starters. That, combined with David Shaw's run of recruiting success, should keep this defense at least where it was last year, if not lead to improvement. Maybe that doesn't do anything more than keep Stanford where they were already, but the second-best team in the North isn't too thing to be.
It's not often a coach leaves after a single year at a school with as big a brand as Oregon's, but for Willie Taggart, the opportunity to coach his childhood team in Tallahassee was evidently too much to turn down. So he left the Ducks to offensive line coach Mario Cristobal, whom the school appointed permanent head coach just three days after Taggart resigned.
You may remember Cristobal from Florida International, where he led a young program to its first winning seasons, bowl games, and conference championship before being fired for a 3-9 season right after those accomplishments.
It's been six years since we saw Cristobal as head coach somewhere, but what record of him we have is positive. If the FIU athletic director was more patient, he might have moved to a major-conference-job – maybe even his alma mater, Miami (though probably not, as the Canes didn't fire Al Golden until 2015, when fellow alumnus Mark Richt was available). He's an adept recruiter and, I think, will make for a solid head coach in the long run.
More immediately: Cristobal has a good team with a high ceiling. Last year's Ducks were excellent offensively, especially when quarterback Justin Herbert (67.5-percent completion rate, 8.9 yards per attempt) was healthy. When Herbert wasn't, the pass game was poor, but having one of the best tailbacks in the country in Royce Freeman is a good way to cover for that, but it wasn't quite enough, and Oregon lost five of the six games in which Herbert didn't play.
Herbert is back now, and so are four of his five favorite targets, who averaged 11.2 yards per catch as freshmen and sophomores last season. Much of the offensive line is back too, which could very easily make up for the loss of Freeman to the NFL.
Senior Tony Brooks-James and sophomore Darran Felix are Freeman's heirs apparent; Brooks-James got more than three times as many carries, but Felix averaged more than half a yard more per carry. Oregon ran far more than they threw last season, so even if the potent passing game is emphasized more in 2018, the Ducks will probably need one or both of Brooks-James and Felix to run well in bigger roles. However, this is a talented and experienced offense that could do a lot of damage.
On defense, Oregon was better than you might think. Despite facing some of the pass-happiest, most talented offenses in college football, the Ducks allowed just the 27th-most yards per play of any team in the country.
What failed them is that when the dam cracked, it collapsed: In six games, UO allowed fewer than 30 points, which is pretty good for a team that faces as many snaps as they do. In their seven other games, however, opponents averaged 44.2 points per game, which over a full season would rank 120th in FBS – just between Maryland and Tulsa. If not for outstanding performances from Herbert and Freeman against a porous Nebraska, all seven of those games would have been losses.
Fortunately, Oregon retained their defensive coordinator, Jim Leavitt. Having the same system in place should make things easier.
The personnel are mostly the same as well, but with a few massive subtractions. Middle linebacker Jimmie Swain, third on the team in tackles, graduated, leaving his spot to former walk-on Blake Rugraff, who made 10.5 tackles as a sub last year. Two of the team's top three sack-getters, Jonah Moi and Henry Mondeaux, graduated too. Safety Tyree Robinson, who broke up five passes and picked off another two, is also gone. And top cover man Arrion Springs, who recorded 18 pass breakups, is perhaps the biggest departure.
Still: As said, there are pieces left to have a serviceable defense again. The other three starting linebackers, most notably leading tackler Troy Dye, are still around, and so are starting linemen Jalen Jelks and Jordon Scott. Jelks made an outstanding 15 tackles for loss and should be, alongisde Dye, among Oregon's top playmakers. Though you can question the depth for its youth, you can trust the starting front seven that allowed just 3.5 yards per carry last year.
The backfield is a similar story. Thomas Graham, Jr. did well opposite Robinson last season, making three interceptions, and Deommodore Lenoir was a good backup, breaking up five passes. Assuming Lenoir moves to the vacant spot, the ducks have a couple of strong (true sophomore) starting corners.
At safety, Robinson might be replaced by true sophomore Nick Pickett, who had 16 tackles and three pass breakups last season. Or he might be replaced by incoming four-star Steve Stephens. I don't feel good about either's level of experience, but whoever starts will have an accomplished partner in senior Ugochukwu Amadi, who broke up eight passes, picked off three, and forced three fumbles.
There's a good amount of freshmen and sophomores on the defense, but the core of experienced players should lead the way.
I'm inclined to think that with their offense, the Ducks will likely win eight or nine games, but after years of good recruiting, they have the talent to do even more. With some breaks and an unexpected breakout or two, they could even threaten Washington for the division title.
Slowly improving is Cal, whose 2017 was (by record) no worse than their 2016: an underwhelming but not embarrassing 5-7. Considering the Golden Bears were in a transition year, that's not too bad – even if they won just two conference games and arguably only beat one team that had both a pulse and direction (Washington State).
With a new quarterback, a new offensive line, and a new system, the Cal offense took a tremendous step backward, tumbling 55 spots down the yards per play leaderboard.
Fortunately, those three things are unlikely to be as problematic. Ross Bowers had an occasionally bumpy season at quarterback but was mostly alright. He should be more reliable as a junior, especially since his receivers (most notably Vic Wharton III and Kanawai Noa) and running back (1,127-yard rusher Patrick Laird) are more experienced too. The offensive line was also young and is also mostly intact, which should mean improvement.
And every position group on the offense will benefit from a year under Wilcox and coordinator Beau Baldwin. I would be surprised if Cal can move the ball quite like they did at Sonny Dykes' peak, but they should be significantly better – maybe average.
I would expect less improvement out of the Cal defense, but maybe not less effectiveness. The Golden Bears were certainly bad on this side of the ball in 2017, but not to the point of not being salvageable. Their rush defense ranked 50th by yards per carry. Their pass defense ranked 98rd by yards per pass.
There's enough here for an average or better unit. The linebacker group was deep last year, with seven players making 31 or more tackles; with two starters graduated, there is a solid core of five experienced regulars, three of whom are eligible beyond this year.
The secondary is younger but loaded with players who got almost as much playing time in 2017. As freshmen, Camryn Bynum and Elijah Hicks got more tackles and pass breakups than any other corners on the team. Four more then-underclassmen recorded tackles. That's depth.
Despite some turnover on the defensive line, there's plenty upon which a coach can build. Maybe all Cal does in 2018 is leapfrog Wazzu, and maybe their ceiling under Justin Wilcox is a middling, seven-to-nine-win team in a tough division. But they could reach that ceiling fairly quickly.
The situation at Washington State is shakier than you expect from a Mike Leach team.
In 2017, the Cougs had a strong defense and an unsurprisingly effective (enough, at least) offense, which for a while made it look like they were about to have a historically great season. That is, until they went to Berkeley, lost the turnover battle 7-0 (7-0!), and lost the game 37-3. The positivity Wazzy stirred up in September and early October kept them in the AP poll until Holiday Bowl loss to Michigan State finished off a good but somehow disappointing 9-4 season.
And then the offseason happened. Important players on both sides of the ball graduated. Defensive coordinator Alex Grinch left for Ohio State. Leach almost left for Tennessee. More assistants left. Leach capped the summer by being an idiot.
This, of course, leaves out the fact a young man killed himself probably because of football.
In the coldest of terms, all of this could make for a difficult season. Will 2018 be a disaster? I'm willing to bet not. But the floor was already lowered by attrition, and the turmoil surrounding the program has to lower it a little more. Leach's ceiling is seldom high enough for one to foresee potential overperformance.
I expect Wazzu to go bowling and fail to do much else.
Last year's Oregon State team won once – by three points against FCS Portland State, who finished the season winless. That was the highlight.
Other than narrow and heartbreaking losses to Colorado and Stanford, the Beavers were noncompetitive for the rest of the season, the second half of which was spent under interim head coach Cory Hall after Gary Andersen resigned. Oregon State was listless.
Jonathan Smith has one thing going for him in his first year as coach: continuity. Most of the defensive two-deep is back, and so are a lot of offensive skill players. That's pretty much it, and it's not that great when this roster was the worst in the Power Five last season.
I feel confident in calling OSU the favorites against Southern Utah. They have hope against Nevada and maybe Colorado. The rest of their opponents are much better than them, and the most interesting thing to watch is how high the score will get – especially at Ohio State and Washington.
Other than narrow and heartbreaking losses to Colorado and Stanford, the Beavers were noncompetitive for the rest of the season, the second half of which was spent under interim head coach Cory Hall after Gary Andersen resigned. Oregon State was listless.
Jonathan Smith has one thing going for him in his first year as coach: continuity. Most of the defensive two-deep is back, and so are a lot of offensive skill players. That's pretty much it, and it's not that great when this roster was the worst in the Power Five last season.
I feel confident in calling OSU the favorites against Southern Utah. They have hope against Nevada and maybe Colorado. The rest of their opponents are much better than them, and the most interesting thing to watch is how high the score will get – especially at Ohio State and Washington.
South
Predicted standings:
1. USC
1. USC
2. Arizona
3. Utah
4. UCLA
5. Arizona State
6. Colorado
Faith in USC winning a second straight Pac-12 title requires faith in their recruiting. In all of Clay Helton's three classes so far, USC ranked in the top 10; his two classes since becoming permanent head coach each ranked fourth. Any team that recruits that well has a high ceiling.
The floor, meanwhile, will be tested in 2018 after major departures. Last year's team might have underperformed already, losing in blowouts to Notre Dame and Ohio State and playing six games decided by 10 points or fewer despite talent advantages in each. S&P+ ranked them 26th, FPI 16th. Maybe the fresh blood will take the Trojans back to their Playoff-contending standard, or maybe it will put Helton's job in jeopardy.
For 2018 to be a success, USC has to cope with the loss of two first-team all-conference starters who drove the offense, running back Ronald Jones II (5.9 yards per carry, 20 touchdowns as runner and receiver) and quarterback Sam Darnold (63.1-percent completion rate, 8.6 yards per attempt, 26 touchdown passes).
Jones will be easier to replace: Stephen Carr, a former five-star tailback out of Fontana, California, contributed a little bit as Jones' backup (363 yards and three touchdowns on 65 carries) and as a passing option (17 catches for 188 yards). His initial showing was limited, sure, but impressive. If he doesn't work out, former four-star Vavae Malepeai showed he might be a passable starting tailback. I bet that won't be necessary.
Darnold (being a quarterback) is trickier. His issues with interceptions, fumbles, and sacks are well known but never kept him from being one of the country's best quarterbacks. Candidates include redshirt freshman Jack Sears (the fourth-highest-rated pro-style quarterback in 2017), redshirt sophomore Matt Fink (a high three-star in 2016 and Darnold's backup last season), and possibly true freshman J.T. Daniels (the second-highest-rated pro-style quarterback in 2018). It doesn't look like there's a frontrunner entering fall camp, but Daniels has the highest pedigree.
The good news is that whoever wins the competition walks into a pretty good situation. Blue-chippers line the depth chart at receiver, the newest being Amon-Ra St. Brown, the second-best wideout prospect in America this Signing Day. He might wait a year to get significant reps like last year's top signing, Joseph Lewis IV, who will likely step into a bigger role in an already stacked receiving corps.
The best receiver is redshirt sophomore Tyler Vaughns, who had the highest catch rate of any non-running back on the team, more yards per catch than second-team all-conference star Deontay Burnett (now in Titans camp), and the second-most touchdown catches. He and Michael Pittman, Jr. are invaluable weapons that will make the transition of power under center run a little more smoothly.
With plenty of experience on the line as well, it's hard to foresee too many problems offensively. It just depends on how the new quarterback does.
The defense has fewer regulars to replace, but it was also the unit that held back the Trojans last season. That isn't to say it was bad – far from it. Just average, which is good enough to win 11 games (and, evidently, the conference title when you avoid the league's best team) but not good enough to take you to the Playoff.
Every position group loses a key starter: sack leader Rasheem Green and 315-pound anchor Josh Fatu from the defensive line, do-everything playmaker Uchenna Nwosu (second in sacks, first in passes defensed) from the linebackers, and sure tackler Chris Hawkins and interceptions leader Jack Jones from the backfield.
However, those five are the only major players gone. Most of the defense was sophomores and juniors, and they will be plenty experienced. On the defensive line, Christian Rector appears almost as much of a playmaker as Green was, almost matching his TFL total and finishing third in sacks; and redshirt sophomore Brandon Pili can contribute his 320-pound frame at nose. At linebacker, leading tackler Cameron Smith is still around, and plenty of others filled in on the outside, meaning there's at least depth. And in the backfield, USC keeps arguably their two best corners from last season in Ajene Harris and Iman Marshall (19 combined passes defensed) and an experienced safety in Marvell Tell III. It's fair to question the secondary's depth, but few things alleviate depth concerns like a bunch of former four- and five-star prospects.
The floor, meanwhile, will be tested in 2018 after major departures. Last year's team might have underperformed already, losing in blowouts to Notre Dame and Ohio State and playing six games decided by 10 points or fewer despite talent advantages in each. S&P+ ranked them 26th, FPI 16th. Maybe the fresh blood will take the Trojans back to their Playoff-contending standard, or maybe it will put Helton's job in jeopardy.
For 2018 to be a success, USC has to cope with the loss of two first-team all-conference starters who drove the offense, running back Ronald Jones II (5.9 yards per carry, 20 touchdowns as runner and receiver) and quarterback Sam Darnold (63.1-percent completion rate, 8.6 yards per attempt, 26 touchdown passes).
Jones will be easier to replace: Stephen Carr, a former five-star tailback out of Fontana, California, contributed a little bit as Jones' backup (363 yards and three touchdowns on 65 carries) and as a passing option (17 catches for 188 yards). His initial showing was limited, sure, but impressive. If he doesn't work out, former four-star Vavae Malepeai showed he might be a passable starting tailback. I bet that won't be necessary.
Darnold (being a quarterback) is trickier. His issues with interceptions, fumbles, and sacks are well known but never kept him from being one of the country's best quarterbacks. Candidates include redshirt freshman Jack Sears (the fourth-highest-rated pro-style quarterback in 2017), redshirt sophomore Matt Fink (a high three-star in 2016 and Darnold's backup last season), and possibly true freshman J.T. Daniels (the second-highest-rated pro-style quarterback in 2018). It doesn't look like there's a frontrunner entering fall camp, but Daniels has the highest pedigree.
The good news is that whoever wins the competition walks into a pretty good situation. Blue-chippers line the depth chart at receiver, the newest being Amon-Ra St. Brown, the second-best wideout prospect in America this Signing Day. He might wait a year to get significant reps like last year's top signing, Joseph Lewis IV, who will likely step into a bigger role in an already stacked receiving corps.
The best receiver is redshirt sophomore Tyler Vaughns, who had the highest catch rate of any non-running back on the team, more yards per catch than second-team all-conference star Deontay Burnett (now in Titans camp), and the second-most touchdown catches. He and Michael Pittman, Jr. are invaluable weapons that will make the transition of power under center run a little more smoothly.
With plenty of experience on the line as well, it's hard to foresee too many problems offensively. It just depends on how the new quarterback does.
The defense has fewer regulars to replace, but it was also the unit that held back the Trojans last season. That isn't to say it was bad – far from it. Just average, which is good enough to win 11 games (and, evidently, the conference title when you avoid the league's best team) but not good enough to take you to the Playoff.
Every position group loses a key starter: sack leader Rasheem Green and 315-pound anchor Josh Fatu from the defensive line, do-everything playmaker Uchenna Nwosu (second in sacks, first in passes defensed) from the linebackers, and sure tackler Chris Hawkins and interceptions leader Jack Jones from the backfield.
However, those five are the only major players gone. Most of the defense was sophomores and juniors, and they will be plenty experienced. On the defensive line, Christian Rector appears almost as much of a playmaker as Green was, almost matching his TFL total and finishing third in sacks; and redshirt sophomore Brandon Pili can contribute his 320-pound frame at nose. At linebacker, leading tackler Cameron Smith is still around, and plenty of others filled in on the outside, meaning there's at least depth. And in the backfield, USC keeps arguably their two best corners from last season in Ajene Harris and Iman Marshall (19 combined passes defensed) and an experienced safety in Marvell Tell III. It's fair to question the secondary's depth, but few things alleviate depth concerns like a bunch of former four- and five-star prospects.
Is this an elite defense? Probably not, but it can jump into the top third of FBS or better, which bodes well for USC's division (or conference) title aspirations if the offense keeps itself together. Repeating as Pac-12 champions feels unlikely (especially because of how good Washington is), but it's not out of the question. The Trojans remain the favorites in the South.
While their rivals in Tempe played it crazy, Arizona played it safe and picked up Kevin Sumlin to succeed the abruptly jettisoned Rich Rodriguez. It was a deft move a few other schools could have made, seeing as how Texas A&M fired Sumlin in late November and Arizona hired him in January, but the Wildcats are the ones who landed arguably the most proven coach on the market.
Sumlin and offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone come to Tuscon with a lot of toys awaiting them, most notably dual-threat quarterback extraordinaire Khalil Tate. Not too many quarterbacks have literally led all of FBS in yards per carry (and remember: that's counting sack yardage), and fewer can do so while also a highly capable passer as well. Khalil Tate did both of these things because Khalil Tate is only slightly human.
Next to the action figure is a miniature sports car, 5-foot-6-inch redshirt sophomore tailback J.J. Taylor. Taylor did not lead all of FBS in yards per carry, but he did well by that metric, averaging 5.8 yards. Former four-star Nathan Tilford will likely be Taylor's backup (if they don't split the job, something three running backs did under the last regime), which we can't really guarantee will go well, but the 121 yards Tilford put up on just 13 carries last season make one optimistic.
On top of all that, four of the top five wide receivers from last season return, and so do starting tight end Bryce Wolma and backup Jamie Nunley. There's plenty of talent at the skill positions.
Arizona's success offensively, then, may depend on adaptation to Mazzone's scheme, as well as the blockers. While two returning linemen started every game for the Wildcats last season, the two departing guards did the same, and another graduate started all but three. Tackle Cody Creason offers two years of spot-starting experience though, and junior college transfer Steven Bailey can fill one of the vacant interior spots. Depth is questionable, but the starting five is probably good enough.
The reason the Wildcats won't contend for the division, however, is a work-in-progress defense that was poor against run and pass last season. I only avoid calling the situation flat-out bad because there's room for growth: Not only does third-year coordinator Marcel Yates.come back, but so do all but four players come back who started at least one game last season. The team's three leading tacklers were all freshmen, and so was the leader in sacks. Maybe the Arizona defense isn't good enough for another year, but I'm inclined to think it will be soon.
In the interim, the Wildcats likely have second-place potential.
In seven years in the Pac-12, Utah hasn't made much of a mark. In 2015, the Utes finished second (by tiebreaker) to USC in the South, but that's the best they've done. Their average finish has been about fourth, and four times, they finished fifth. That's a little underwhelming.
Still: The team has never cratered, and that's why Kyle Whittingham has kept his job. He's maintained a respectable, high-floor program that in 2018 has a higher ceiling than usual.
Most of what's back is on offense. The biggest loss is Darren Carrington II, far and away the Utes' leading receiver, who posted 71 catches for 990 yards and six touchdowns (all team bests). Additionally, Raelon Singleton, second on the team in most receiving statistics, transferred to Houston. Plus, second-team all-conference guard Salesi Uhatafe and a couple of tight ends graduated.
Other than that, though, the Utah offense is in great shape. Three underclassman wideouts were targeted around 40 times each, including potential big-play threat Siaosi Mariner, who averaged the most yards per catch. On top of that, Britain Covey, 2015's leading receiver, returns from missionary work with two extra years of eligibility after 2018. On top of that, Whittingham signed a four-star wideout in Soloman Enis, who may supplement the passing attack.
Tyler Huntley, an adept runner and decent passer, should be better with a year of experience, a reliable set of targets, a capable safety blanket in tailback Zach Moss, and four-fifths of his offensive line back. If Huntley finds a groove, Utah could be a legitimate force offensively.
The defense was a little bit above average last season, and this year's edition could be better. The Utes can certainly boast one thing on this side of the ball, and that's a deep secondary. Nine letter-winning DBs return from last season, and the only one that didn't start at least a game (Javelin K. Guidry) still made 26 tackles, four pass breakups, and an interception.
There are playmakers all over the backfield: junior corner Julian Blackmon (four picks), sophomore corner Jaylon Johnson (six pass breakups), safety Corrion Ballard (38 tackles and two interceptions), safety Marquise Blair (41.5 tackles, including three for losses, in an injury-shortened season) – the list goes on.
Throw in a couple of junior college corners, and you have a pass defense that is in no danger of running out of bodies.
Potential trouble exists in the box. Linebackers Kavika Luafatasaga and Sunia Tautioli were first and second on the team, respectively, in tackles last season, with Tautioli tying for first in TFLs. Donavan Thompson, a five-game starter, and single-game spot-starter Cody Barton are the only players with experience at linebacker. To help, safety Chase Hansen is converting to linebacker, which should patch over the hole in the starting lineup but leave a barren bench.
The Utes' most disruptive player, seven-sack, three-fumble-forcing end Bradlee Anae, is the only returning starter on the line. A handful of other underclassmen got playing time, but they didn't make much of an impact. They need to do more for this front to withstand rushing attacks like Arizona's and Stanford's.
Even so, I feel good about Utah's prospects.
Last year's roster was full of sophomores and juniors, and the Utes finished 7-6. With as many regulars as they get back, this year's junior- and senior-heavy team could make a run at the division title – if they can find some extra help on defense, and if they can make it through a hard cross-division schedule that features Washington, Stanford, and Oregon. That said, two of those opponents come to dangerous Rice-Eccles, and so do Arizona and USC. It's easy to see that home-field advantage swing a couple important games their way.
Next to the action figure is a miniature sports car, 5-foot-6-inch redshirt sophomore tailback J.J. Taylor. Taylor did not lead all of FBS in yards per carry, but he did well by that metric, averaging 5.8 yards. Former four-star Nathan Tilford will likely be Taylor's backup (if they don't split the job, something three running backs did under the last regime), which we can't really guarantee will go well, but the 121 yards Tilford put up on just 13 carries last season make one optimistic.
On top of all that, four of the top five wide receivers from last season return, and so do starting tight end Bryce Wolma and backup Jamie Nunley. There's plenty of talent at the skill positions.
Arizona's success offensively, then, may depend on adaptation to Mazzone's scheme, as well as the blockers. While two returning linemen started every game for the Wildcats last season, the two departing guards did the same, and another graduate started all but three. Tackle Cody Creason offers two years of spot-starting experience though, and junior college transfer Steven Bailey can fill one of the vacant interior spots. Depth is questionable, but the starting five is probably good enough.
The reason the Wildcats won't contend for the division, however, is a work-in-progress defense that was poor against run and pass last season. I only avoid calling the situation flat-out bad because there's room for growth: Not only does third-year coordinator Marcel Yates.come back, but so do all but four players come back who started at least one game last season. The team's three leading tacklers were all freshmen, and so was the leader in sacks. Maybe the Arizona defense isn't good enough for another year, but I'm inclined to think it will be soon.
In the interim, the Wildcats likely have second-place potential.
In seven years in the Pac-12, Utah hasn't made much of a mark. In 2015, the Utes finished second (by tiebreaker) to USC in the South, but that's the best they've done. Their average finish has been about fourth, and four times, they finished fifth. That's a little underwhelming.
Still: The team has never cratered, and that's why Kyle Whittingham has kept his job. He's maintained a respectable, high-floor program that in 2018 has a higher ceiling than usual.
Most of what's back is on offense. The biggest loss is Darren Carrington II, far and away the Utes' leading receiver, who posted 71 catches for 990 yards and six touchdowns (all team bests). Additionally, Raelon Singleton, second on the team in most receiving statistics, transferred to Houston. Plus, second-team all-conference guard Salesi Uhatafe and a couple of tight ends graduated.
Other than that, though, the Utah offense is in great shape. Three underclassman wideouts were targeted around 40 times each, including potential big-play threat Siaosi Mariner, who averaged the most yards per catch. On top of that, Britain Covey, 2015's leading receiver, returns from missionary work with two extra years of eligibility after 2018. On top of that, Whittingham signed a four-star wideout in Soloman Enis, who may supplement the passing attack.
Tyler Huntley, an adept runner and decent passer, should be better with a year of experience, a reliable set of targets, a capable safety blanket in tailback Zach Moss, and four-fifths of his offensive line back. If Huntley finds a groove, Utah could be a legitimate force offensively.
The defense was a little bit above average last season, and this year's edition could be better. The Utes can certainly boast one thing on this side of the ball, and that's a deep secondary. Nine letter-winning DBs return from last season, and the only one that didn't start at least a game (Javelin K. Guidry) still made 26 tackles, four pass breakups, and an interception.
There are playmakers all over the backfield: junior corner Julian Blackmon (four picks), sophomore corner Jaylon Johnson (six pass breakups), safety Corrion Ballard (38 tackles and two interceptions), safety Marquise Blair (41.5 tackles, including three for losses, in an injury-shortened season) – the list goes on.
Throw in a couple of junior college corners, and you have a pass defense that is in no danger of running out of bodies.
Potential trouble exists in the box. Linebackers Kavika Luafatasaga and Sunia Tautioli were first and second on the team, respectively, in tackles last season, with Tautioli tying for first in TFLs. Donavan Thompson, a five-game starter, and single-game spot-starter Cody Barton are the only players with experience at linebacker. To help, safety Chase Hansen is converting to linebacker, which should patch over the hole in the starting lineup but leave a barren bench.
The Utes' most disruptive player, seven-sack, three-fumble-forcing end Bradlee Anae, is the only returning starter on the line. A handful of other underclassmen got playing time, but they didn't make much of an impact. They need to do more for this front to withstand rushing attacks like Arizona's and Stanford's.
Even so, I feel good about Utah's prospects.
Last year's roster was full of sophomores and juniors, and the Utes finished 7-6. With as many regulars as they get back, this year's junior- and senior-heavy team could make a run at the division title – if they can find some extra help on defense, and if they can make it through a hard cross-division schedule that features Washington, Stanford, and Oregon. That said, two of those opponents come to dangerous Rice-Eccles, and so do Arizona and USC. It's easy to see that home-field advantage swing a couple important games their way.
After Jim Mora, Jr. finally wore out his welcome with the athletic department – which was well after he did with the fans – UCLA finally fired him and landed Chip Kelly as the replacement.
Kelly is among the most important offensive strategists of the past decade, but the last we saw of him was a diluted form that didn't resemble the mastermind that originally left Oregon for the Eagles. Since he left the college game, the norm became closer to his brand of football. One wonders if he still has the creativity, and if his scheme is still fresh enough to give the Bruins the unique edge he had in Eugene.
Regardless of the answers to those long-term questions, Kelly might have problems at first. UCLA always recruits well, of course, but after some turnover, and with a new system, the personnel will likely need some time before they can do well.
Quarterback Josh Rosen was not a runner, but he was an exceptional pocket passer, and redshirt sophomore Devon Modster has to follow that without as much help as he probably likes. (Unless Michigan transfer Wilton Speight takes the No. 1 job instead.) Five offensive linemen made every single start for the Bruins last season; three are gone, including first-round tackle Kolton Miller. That, combined with Modster's track record as a pro-style passer, probably foretells little to no improvement to last season's 103rd-ranked rush defense.
The two leaders in the receiving corps (Jordan Lasley and Darren Andrews) are gone too, leaving just two experienced wideouts on the roster. There are a couple tight ends (each, interestingly, 6-foot-four and named Wilson) who got targets last year, and running backs Soso Jamabo and Bolu Olorunfunmi were used as pass-catchers too. This doesn't look like a serious passing attack though. A lot of underclassmen might see the field.
Of course, it's hard to become that bad overnight when you were a top-25 offense before. I think there's potential for significant drop-off, but the floor is higher here than it is for other places breaking in new staffs.
Fortunately, the UCLA defense doesn't have as many important players to replace. Unfortunately, this unit is starting from a lower point.
The rush defense was absolutely dreadful last season. No Power Five team allowed more yards per carry, and only three mid-majors did. Of course, that's what happens when you play a ton of underclassmen on the defensive line and at linebacker, so that level of badness is unlikely to repeat itself. Or, that is, it would be unlikely if there were some proven playmakers at linebacker, which there are not. Two effective ends have switched to outside linebackers and may provide some spark from the edge. But there has to be some kind of presence in the middle of the box, and I don't see one.
The last staff kept cycling new bodies at the line of scrimmage due to injury and ineffectiveness, so there are at least experienced options there.
The pass defense, meanwhile, was excellent... in 2016. 2017 was a much different story: UCLA fell from fourth in yards per attempt allowed to 71st. I'm almost impressed they could collapse so quickly.
There's something here though. Safety Adarius Pickett is the leading returning tackler, and corner Nate Meadors (who also had nine pass breakups) is second. Throw in sophomore corner Darnay Holmes (three interceptions) and senior safety Octavius Spencer (four pass breakups), and you at least have four starters. A few more underclassmen played a bit enough to be potentially passable backups, so maybe the pass defense will be a bit better – probably not that much better, however; working with a new coordinator could be difficult.
This is far from a Year 0 situation, but it may not be a great debut for Kelly. A non-conference schedule of Cincinnati, Fresno State, and Oklahoma won't be a breeze and (depending on how much Cincinnati has progressed) could end 2-1 or 0-3. In a deep conference, with the five or six best teams in that conference on the schedule, it's not good to be a team in transition. There are plenty of toss-ups in, and the Bruins are probably not favorites in more than three games. I expect them to finish somewhere around .500.
I still can't really justify the Herm Edwards hire at Arizona State. Were there worse ideas? I mean, sure, but within reason, you can't get a whole lot worse than hiring a guy to be your head coach who last coached in 2008 (going 2-14 with the Chiefs) and who last held a college coaching position in 1989 (as a position coach at San Jose State). I don't pretend to know if this works, but I'm willing to bet it doesn't.
For now, the Sun Devils will likely be worse on defense than they were before – which means they could be really bad – thanks to significant graduations and a change in coordinator. Nine defensive backs who made a tackle last year are back, including cornerback Chase Lucas, who broke up a team-leading eight passes as a redshirt freshman. So maybe there's some potential in the back, but I don't expect much.
On offense, ASU has the talent to throw the ball as much as they want. Manny Wilkins was a great scrambling quarterback last season, but he led an effective passing game with lots of young receivers. Coordinator Rob Likens, a leftover Todd Graham assistant who previously coordinated at Kansas and coached receivers under Sonny Dykes, could very definitely throw as much as he wants, and he'll probably have to just to keep pace in what will probably be some shootouts.
Maybe Edwards turns out to be a good college coach. But he likely won't have a good first year.
For now, the Sun Devils will likely be worse on defense than they were before – which means they could be really bad – thanks to significant graduations and a change in coordinator. Nine defensive backs who made a tackle last year are back, including cornerback Chase Lucas, who broke up a team-leading eight passes as a redshirt freshman. So maybe there's some potential in the back, but I don't expect much.
On offense, ASU has the talent to throw the ball as much as they want. Manny Wilkins was a great scrambling quarterback last season, but he led an effective passing game with lots of young receivers. Coordinator Rob Likens, a leftover Todd Graham assistant who previously coordinated at Kansas and coached receivers under Sonny Dykes, could very definitely throw as much as he wants, and he'll probably have to just to keep pace in what will probably be some shootouts.
Maybe Edwards turns out to be a good college coach. But he likely won't have a good first year.
In 2016, Colorado rode the talents of an excellent senior class to a division title. They lost both the Pac-12 title game and the Alamo Bowl, of course, but a 10-win season was unexpected and memorable, a sign that Mike MacIntyre had the program going in the right direction.
Of course, when that senior class graduated, there was a drop-off... all the way to last in the division. And with many of last season's roster being seniors too, the Buffaloes might not get any better in 2018. Mike MacIntyre faces a potentially brutal schedule aside from New Hampshire and Oregon State; if the disastrous happens, and he only wins two or three games, he might not get another chance in Boulder.
Of course, when that senior class graduated, there was a drop-off... all the way to last in the division. And with many of last season's roster being seniors too, the Buffaloes might not get any better in 2018. Mike MacIntyre faces a potentially brutal schedule aside from New Hampshire and Oregon State; if the disastrous happens, and he only wins two or three games, he might not get another chance in Boulder.
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Up next: the Big 12.
Tons of credit for stats go to S&P+ creator and SB Nation writer Bill Connelly, whose advanced statistical profiles are invaluable for their detail. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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