We've finally reached the last conference in FBS: The Big Ten.
Big Ten Conference
West
Predicted standings:
1. Wisconsin
2. Northwestern
3. Iowa
4. Purdue
5. Nebraska
6. Minnesota
7. Illinois
I don't see anyone in the West beating Wisconsin this year. Trips to Iowa and Northwestern could be hazardous, but the Badgers are considerably better than either opponent. If they lose at all, it'll be to one of the three East heavyweights: at Michigan, at Penn State, or (as I expect) versus Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
Winning UW's sixth division title in eight years begins on defense. Though it shouldn't be as dominant as it was last season, it's not going to be a whole lot worse. T.J. Edwards could have gone to the NFL on the strength of his junior year, but instead he's back along with Ryan Connelly in the middle of the Badger linebacker corps. D'Cota Dixon, one of the nation's top defensive backs, is also back at strong safety; and 342-pounder Olive Sagopolu is back at nose.
Outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel made 10 tackles for loss last season and do well as a starter. Zack Baun, who missed 2017 but made a handful of plays the year before, is expected to fill the other outside position. Four more reserve linebackers saw the field a bit last year. If another playmaker cannot emerge, then at least the Badgers have ample depth in the second level. This position group is clearly the defense's biggest strength.
But there are concerns, beginning with the secondary. Though Donye Carriere-Williams impressed as a redshirt freshman, he is also the only returning letterman at corner. Derrick Tindal and Nick Nelson made for one of the best corner tandems in college football, and that level of production will not be matched.
Dixon's counterpart at the other safety position will be inexperienced: Candidates to replace Natrell Jamerson are young (redshirt freshman Scott Nelson and redshirt sophomore Patrick Johnson), and the backups are either the same or career special-teamers. The Badger pass defense might just be good instead of elite.
And the projected starters at end, Garrett Rand and Isaiahh Loudermilk, combined for 17 tackles last season. Both have room to improve, and they play for a team that routinely pumps out star pass rushers, but they probably won't fully replace Alec James and Conor Sheehy.
If the youth plays just adequately, this is still a top-10 or -15 defense. All Wisconsin needs to win, then, is the offense to do its job – and it should.
Alex Hornibrook is no All-American quarterback, but he enters his third year as a reliable (and improving) starter capable of excellence. Even with a less experienced set of targets, and without tight end Troy Fumagalli, Hornibrook should lead a pretty good passing attack.
Not that it'll be needed much, of course. If I had a running back like Jonathan Taylor, I'd be tempted to run every time. As a true freshman, Taylor came just short of 2,000 yards and scored 13 touchdowns. And the whole Wisconsin starting line is back, too. You need a full-on blockade to stop this rushing game.
The Badgers are unquestionably the best team in the West. Do well against their cross-division opponents, and they have a chance at the Playoff.
Northwestern fielded another great defense last season, and it will be even better in 2018.
The eleventh-best rush defense in the country gets back three of their four best linebackers (including Paddy Fisher, who led the team in tackles as a freshman, and Nate Hall, who led in TFLs) and five linemen who made more than four TFLs (best among them Joe Gaziano, who made 12.5 and added four forced fumbles). At each position group, there's relatively seasoned depth as well. There are few better front sevens in college football.
The backfield is more passable than elite after losing safeties Godwin Igwebuike and Kyle Quiero, the anchors of the third level. Though more DBs got reps after cornerback Montre Hartage (10 passes defensed), nobody stood out. The most experienced depth guys, Alonzo Mayo and Trae Williams, play corner too, meaning the Wildcats look vulnerable at the back. If opponents can survive the pass rush, they could have an advantage throwing deep.
Still, when you have as much ability in the box as Northwestern does, it's hard to score.
And unlike in prior years, visitors to Ryan Field can't lean on outlasting a uninspiring offense. Last season's unit was mediocre at best, but it could be pretty effective in 2018. Quarterback Clayton Thorson enters his fourth year as starter and has experience at receiver and on the line line, and he's supported by Jeremy Larkin, an exciting heir to all-time leading rusher Justin Jackson.
With great defense and potentially above-average offense, Northwestern separates themselves at the top of the West's second (i.e., non-Wisconsin) class.
If anyone has something to say about that, it's Iowa, the only other team in the division who could finish second without a lot of luck.
The Hawkeyes had a comparable defense – if not a better one – than the Wildcats did last season, but unlike the Wildcats, they have a lot to replace. Linebacker Josey Jewell and corner Josh Jackson were each among the best players in the country at their respective positions. The other two starting linebackers graduated as well, and the most experienced remaining player at the position made 6.5 tackles last season. Subtract a lineman and another DB, and you have to expect some decline.
That decline probably won't be precipitous though. There's ample experience up front, led by ends Anthony Nelson and Parker Hesse, and enough continuity in the back for Iowa to survive. It just might be a good bit harder to contain a talented running back when he hits the second level, and that could burn the Hawkeyes against the right teams.
The offense has its problems – chief among them the maddeningly conservative Kirk and Brian Ferentz – but could pose a threat through the air. Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are threatening targets at tight end (Fant for his 16.5 yards per catch, and Hockenson for his 69.4-percent catch rate), and Nate Stanley is a decent (albeit immobile) quarterback.
If injuries don't hurt a merely passable and always thin group of wideouts (three had more than seven targets, and one of them graduated), Iowa can do some damage throwing the ball. And considering the dearth of proven running backs, they might have to throw it.
Because of the losses on defense and the low ceiling on offense, I don't think Iowa is anything other than their most unremarkably Iowa selves this season. They're always a threat to ruin someone's year, so you'll have to pay them some attention, but you know exactly what you're getting most Saturdays.
Purdue got immediate return on their investment by hiring Jeff Brohm, going to their first bowl since 2012, ending a four-year losing streak to Indiana, finishing fourth in the West, and just generally being a competent football team for once. Unexpected losses to Rutgers and Nebraska were offset by unexpected wins over Iowa and Arizona and blowouts of Ohio and Missouri. It was just a fun year, and Purdue fans don't often get to say that.
It's hard to see them having that much fun again though. Missouri and Iowa probably won't be as easy to beat; although Boston College is an easier matchup than Louisville is, it could be a close game; and drawing Ohio State and Michigan State from the East probably means you can pencil in a couple of conference losses right now. The schedule keeps Purdue from doing much better than 6-6.
Graduations don't much hurt the improved offense (led by quarterback Elijah Sindelaar and a quartet of running backs who combined for a 5.5 rushing average), but they could leave major holes in what was a strong defense last season.
Markus Bailey was one of the conference's best linebackers as a sophomore, and Jacob Thieneman and Navon Mosley make a reliable tandem at safety, but the rest of the defense is thinned. Four linebackers, three defensive backs, and three linemen who made more than 10 tackles are gone, pushing younger players onto the field. This could especially hurt the secondary, which had a couple of playmaking corners in Da'Wan Hunte and Josh Okonye but didn't rely much on the bench.
If the offense makes up for the defense's expected fall, then Purdue can go bowling again. If not, they should still be ahead of the two overhauling teams at the bottom of the West.
Nebraska made an excellent hire in Scott Frost that could pay off soon, the same way it did for UCF. But the Cornhuskers are still a long way from Big Ten contention.
Defensively, the Huskers were a disaster last season. Five times, opponents scored more than 40 points; only twice opponents scored less than 20. The Huskers allowed the fifth-most yards per carry of anyone in FBS, as well as the 16th-highest completion percentage. If you wanted to move the ball against them, they let you.
The front seven should improve, but I don't know by how much. Most members of this group are back after heavy rotation gave reps to a lot of players, but it will be hard to become even passable when you start as low as they did. Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and others should torch them on the ground once again. The secondary is similarly experienced but also similarly flawed.
The offense was better despite an ineffective run game thanks to a few great receivers, but it also needs time to grow. Senior Stanley Morgan, Jr. and sophomore J.D. Spielman will take throws from a true freshman, Adrian Martinez. Tanner Lee was an imperfect quarterback, but his successor will probably be worse starting out.
Things won't go smoothly at first. Getting three of the four East giants makes the conference schedule tough; facing Troy in Week 3 puts another obstacle in the way of bowl eligibility. The Huskers could be improved by the end of the season, but Frost's rebuild won't be done until much later.
With youth all over the two-deep, Minnesota's season is about development far more than competitiveness. P.J. Fleck wants to give his freshmen and sophomores reps for the future rather than half-commit to a rebuild. Right now, that strategy could result in some sloppy performances and a poor record. The hope is, however, that the Gophers will come out on the other side a solid program.
If the team improves anywhere in the interim, it will be on offense. Last year's beat up on bad defenses like Oregon State's or Nebraska's, but it was atrocious overall. Four times, Minnesota scored 10 points or fewer. They ranked 117th in yards per play and 125th in completion percentage. It's hard to get any worse.
Quarterback has to be better after Conor Rhoda (the exemplar of the "bus driver" archetype, but with even less upside) and Demry Croft (an excellent runner but a woeful thrower and frequent sack victim) left the program. Not many programs with a true freshman starter, Zach Annexstad, and a redshirt freshman backup, Tanner Morgan, can say that.
Annexstad is officially a walk-on but was a three-star prospect with reported offers from five other FBS schools (including Cincinnati and Pitt), attended IMG Academy in Florida, and was announced as part of the Gophers' regular recruiting class. In other words, he is a walk-on in name only.
Still, we don't know what to expect from him. It's likely he comes well short of great, and according to Fleck, Morgan will play too. Even if its better than it was with Rhoda and Croft, the position will be inconsistent.
That should be softened, however, by a better receiving corps. Last year, Tyler Johnson was the Gophers' whole passing game, more than tripling the next-best wideout or tight end's catch total and scoring seven of the team's nine receiving touchdowns. The other receivers were young, inconsistent, injured, or all three. Those that are left (most notably Phillip Howard and Demetrius Douglas) should be better with experience. Four-star freshman Rashod Bateman should be a valuable weapon too.
The offensive line and, subsequently, the run game, should also improve. Two starters are gone, but six other players with starting experience (and a JuCo signing) make the unit much deeper than before. (Two blue-chip freshmen from IMG Academy, 400-pounder Daniel Faalele and 370-pounder Curtis Dunlap, Jr., need to cut weight before getting serious reps.)
And, of course, Minnesota can count on Rodney Smith to generate something on the ground and provide an extra passing option. With more space, he should be more productive. Without Shannon Brooks though, he may have to take more carries unless freshmen Mohamed Ibrahim and Bryce Williams perform well as backups.
There are few parts of this offense that inspire confidence, but many that inspire hope.
Meanwhile, the best part of Jerry Kill and Tracy Claeys' Minnesota teams, the defense, continues a gradual slide. When Kill retired (the first time) in 2015, the Gophers ranked 20th in yards per play allowed. Last season, they ranked 59th.
A big reason for this drop-off was a weakened run defense. After a handful of graduations and a staff change, Minnesota allowed the 30th-most yards per carry in FBS last season.
With more experienced linemen, it could get better, as that was the unit most responsible for the run problems last year. But aside from Carter Coughlin, who often switches between end and linebacker, and Alabama transfer O.J. Smith, there's more depth than talent.
The linebacker corps is in the reverse spot. In addition to Coughlin, there's another terrific pass rusher in Blake Cashman and a terrific tackler in Thomas Barber, arguably Minnesota's best player on either side of the ball last year. Throw in a decent coverage linebacker in Kamal Martin, and you have a strong set of starters. But there is only one backup who isn't a freshman. That makes the situation a little dicey; an injury could force someone inexperienced onto the field and cause major problems.
The secondary is a major concern. Antoine Winfield, Jr.'s return is huge, and senior Jacob Huff cleaned up a lot of messes last season, but a backfield is more than a pair of starting safeties. (Though the aforementioned depth chart, listing five defensive backs instead of designating positions, suggests Minnesota isn't adhering strictly to regular roles.) Huff, Florida transfer Chris Williamson, and nickel back Antonio Shenault are the only upperclassmen in the third level.
There's inexperience almost everywhere else. Redshirt sophomore Kiondre Thomas and true freshman Terell Smith are the starting corners. Seven underclassmen are backups.
Considering last year's problems with pass defense – Minnesota allowed a 63.3-percent completion rate – it's easy to see this area costing them dearly. But it'll hopefully translate into a good secondary in the future.
Winning would be good, obviously, but it's unlikely to happen a lot this season. I think there are enough close matchups to make bowl eligibility, but it will take luck and dramatic overperformance to finish better than fourth in the division.
Illinois is miserable right now, but Lovie Smith has them on track to be okay in 2020 or so.
Since he arrived in 2016, Smith has gone into full tear-down mode and thrown as many freshmen and sophomores onto the field as he can. Entering 2018, the roster has 24 upperclassmen, just eight of whom are seniors. It may work eventually, especially since four-star recruits are starting to sign up: two signed this spring, and another two are committed for next spring's class.
But right now – especially on offense – Illinois has the worst team in the Big Ten and one of the worst in FBS. They're an easy pick for last place.
Winning UW's sixth division title in eight years begins on defense. Though it shouldn't be as dominant as it was last season, it's not going to be a whole lot worse. T.J. Edwards could have gone to the NFL on the strength of his junior year, but instead he's back along with Ryan Connelly in the middle of the Badger linebacker corps. D'Cota Dixon, one of the nation's top defensive backs, is also back at strong safety; and 342-pounder Olive Sagopolu is back at nose.
Outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel made 10 tackles for loss last season and do well as a starter. Zack Baun, who missed 2017 but made a handful of plays the year before, is expected to fill the other outside position. Four more reserve linebackers saw the field a bit last year. If another playmaker cannot emerge, then at least the Badgers have ample depth in the second level. This position group is clearly the defense's biggest strength.
But there are concerns, beginning with the secondary. Though Donye Carriere-Williams impressed as a redshirt freshman, he is also the only returning letterman at corner. Derrick Tindal and Nick Nelson made for one of the best corner tandems in college football, and that level of production will not be matched.
Dixon's counterpart at the other safety position will be inexperienced: Candidates to replace Natrell Jamerson are young (redshirt freshman Scott Nelson and redshirt sophomore Patrick Johnson), and the backups are either the same or career special-teamers. The Badger pass defense might just be good instead of elite.
And the projected starters at end, Garrett Rand and Isaiahh Loudermilk, combined for 17 tackles last season. Both have room to improve, and they play for a team that routinely pumps out star pass rushers, but they probably won't fully replace Alec James and Conor Sheehy.
If the youth plays just adequately, this is still a top-10 or -15 defense. All Wisconsin needs to win, then, is the offense to do its job – and it should.
Alex Hornibrook is no All-American quarterback, but he enters his third year as a reliable (and improving) starter capable of excellence. Even with a less experienced set of targets, and without tight end Troy Fumagalli, Hornibrook should lead a pretty good passing attack.
Not that it'll be needed much, of course. If I had a running back like Jonathan Taylor, I'd be tempted to run every time. As a true freshman, Taylor came just short of 2,000 yards and scored 13 touchdowns. And the whole Wisconsin starting line is back, too. You need a full-on blockade to stop this rushing game.
The Badgers are unquestionably the best team in the West. Do well against their cross-division opponents, and they have a chance at the Playoff.
Northwestern fielded another great defense last season, and it will be even better in 2018.
The eleventh-best rush defense in the country gets back three of their four best linebackers (including Paddy Fisher, who led the team in tackles as a freshman, and Nate Hall, who led in TFLs) and five linemen who made more than four TFLs (best among them Joe Gaziano, who made 12.5 and added four forced fumbles). At each position group, there's relatively seasoned depth as well. There are few better front sevens in college football.
The backfield is more passable than elite after losing safeties Godwin Igwebuike and Kyle Quiero, the anchors of the third level. Though more DBs got reps after cornerback Montre Hartage (10 passes defensed), nobody stood out. The most experienced depth guys, Alonzo Mayo and Trae Williams, play corner too, meaning the Wildcats look vulnerable at the back. If opponents can survive the pass rush, they could have an advantage throwing deep.
Still, when you have as much ability in the box as Northwestern does, it's hard to score.
And unlike in prior years, visitors to Ryan Field can't lean on outlasting a uninspiring offense. Last season's unit was mediocre at best, but it could be pretty effective in 2018. Quarterback Clayton Thorson enters his fourth year as starter and has experience at receiver and on the line line, and he's supported by Jeremy Larkin, an exciting heir to all-time leading rusher Justin Jackson.
With great defense and potentially above-average offense, Northwestern separates themselves at the top of the West's second (i.e., non-Wisconsin) class.
If anyone has something to say about that, it's Iowa, the only other team in the division who could finish second without a lot of luck.
The Hawkeyes had a comparable defense – if not a better one – than the Wildcats did last season, but unlike the Wildcats, they have a lot to replace. Linebacker Josey Jewell and corner Josh Jackson were each among the best players in the country at their respective positions. The other two starting linebackers graduated as well, and the most experienced remaining player at the position made 6.5 tackles last season. Subtract a lineman and another DB, and you have to expect some decline.
That decline probably won't be precipitous though. There's ample experience up front, led by ends Anthony Nelson and Parker Hesse, and enough continuity in the back for Iowa to survive. It just might be a good bit harder to contain a talented running back when he hits the second level, and that could burn the Hawkeyes against the right teams.
The offense has its problems – chief among them the maddeningly conservative Kirk and Brian Ferentz – but could pose a threat through the air. Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are threatening targets at tight end (Fant for his 16.5 yards per catch, and Hockenson for his 69.4-percent catch rate), and Nate Stanley is a decent (albeit immobile) quarterback.
If injuries don't hurt a merely passable and always thin group of wideouts (three had more than seven targets, and one of them graduated), Iowa can do some damage throwing the ball. And considering the dearth of proven running backs, they might have to throw it.
Because of the losses on defense and the low ceiling on offense, I don't think Iowa is anything other than their most unremarkably Iowa selves this season. They're always a threat to ruin someone's year, so you'll have to pay them some attention, but you know exactly what you're getting most Saturdays.
Purdue got immediate return on their investment by hiring Jeff Brohm, going to their first bowl since 2012, ending a four-year losing streak to Indiana, finishing fourth in the West, and just generally being a competent football team for once. Unexpected losses to Rutgers and Nebraska were offset by unexpected wins over Iowa and Arizona and blowouts of Ohio and Missouri. It was just a fun year, and Purdue fans don't often get to say that.
It's hard to see them having that much fun again though. Missouri and Iowa probably won't be as easy to beat; although Boston College is an easier matchup than Louisville is, it could be a close game; and drawing Ohio State and Michigan State from the East probably means you can pencil in a couple of conference losses right now. The schedule keeps Purdue from doing much better than 6-6.
Graduations don't much hurt the improved offense (led by quarterback Elijah Sindelaar and a quartet of running backs who combined for a 5.5 rushing average), but they could leave major holes in what was a strong defense last season.
Markus Bailey was one of the conference's best linebackers as a sophomore, and Jacob Thieneman and Navon Mosley make a reliable tandem at safety, but the rest of the defense is thinned. Four linebackers, three defensive backs, and three linemen who made more than 10 tackles are gone, pushing younger players onto the field. This could especially hurt the secondary, which had a couple of playmaking corners in Da'Wan Hunte and Josh Okonye but didn't rely much on the bench.
If the offense makes up for the defense's expected fall, then Purdue can go bowling again. If not, they should still be ahead of the two overhauling teams at the bottom of the West.
Nebraska made an excellent hire in Scott Frost that could pay off soon, the same way it did for UCF. But the Cornhuskers are still a long way from Big Ten contention.
Defensively, the Huskers were a disaster last season. Five times, opponents scored more than 40 points; only twice opponents scored less than 20. The Huskers allowed the fifth-most yards per carry of anyone in FBS, as well as the 16th-highest completion percentage. If you wanted to move the ball against them, they let you.
The front seven should improve, but I don't know by how much. Most members of this group are back after heavy rotation gave reps to a lot of players, but it will be hard to become even passable when you start as low as they did. Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio State, and others should torch them on the ground once again. The secondary is similarly experienced but also similarly flawed.
The offense was better despite an ineffective run game thanks to a few great receivers, but it also needs time to grow. Senior Stanley Morgan, Jr. and sophomore J.D. Spielman will take throws from a true freshman, Adrian Martinez. Tanner Lee was an imperfect quarterback, but his successor will probably be worse starting out.
Things won't go smoothly at first. Getting three of the four East giants makes the conference schedule tough; facing Troy in Week 3 puts another obstacle in the way of bowl eligibility. The Huskers could be improved by the end of the season, but Frost's rebuild won't be done until much later.
With youth all over the two-deep, Minnesota's season is about development far more than competitiveness. P.J. Fleck wants to give his freshmen and sophomores reps for the future rather than half-commit to a rebuild. Right now, that strategy could result in some sloppy performances and a poor record. The hope is, however, that the Gophers will come out on the other side a solid program.
If the team improves anywhere in the interim, it will be on offense. Last year's beat up on bad defenses like Oregon State's or Nebraska's, but it was atrocious overall. Four times, Minnesota scored 10 points or fewer. They ranked 117th in yards per play and 125th in completion percentage. It's hard to get any worse.
Quarterback has to be better after Conor Rhoda (the exemplar of the "bus driver" archetype, but with even less upside) and Demry Croft (an excellent runner but a woeful thrower and frequent sack victim) left the program. Not many programs with a true freshman starter, Zach Annexstad, and a redshirt freshman backup, Tanner Morgan, can say that.
Annexstad is officially a walk-on but was a three-star prospect with reported offers from five other FBS schools (including Cincinnati and Pitt), attended IMG Academy in Florida, and was announced as part of the Gophers' regular recruiting class. In other words, he is a walk-on in name only.
Still, we don't know what to expect from him. It's likely he comes well short of great, and according to Fleck, Morgan will play too. Even if its better than it was with Rhoda and Croft, the position will be inconsistent.
That should be softened, however, by a better receiving corps. Last year, Tyler Johnson was the Gophers' whole passing game, more than tripling the next-best wideout or tight end's catch total and scoring seven of the team's nine receiving touchdowns. The other receivers were young, inconsistent, injured, or all three. Those that are left (most notably Phillip Howard and Demetrius Douglas) should be better with experience. Four-star freshman Rashod Bateman should be a valuable weapon too.
The offensive line and, subsequently, the run game, should also improve. Two starters are gone, but six other players with starting experience (and a JuCo signing) make the unit much deeper than before. (Two blue-chip freshmen from IMG Academy, 400-pounder Daniel Faalele and 370-pounder Curtis Dunlap, Jr., need to cut weight before getting serious reps.)
And, of course, Minnesota can count on Rodney Smith to generate something on the ground and provide an extra passing option. With more space, he should be more productive. Without Shannon Brooks though, he may have to take more carries unless freshmen Mohamed Ibrahim and Bryce Williams perform well as backups.
There are few parts of this offense that inspire confidence, but many that inspire hope.
Meanwhile, the best part of Jerry Kill and Tracy Claeys' Minnesota teams, the defense, continues a gradual slide. When Kill retired (the first time) in 2015, the Gophers ranked 20th in yards per play allowed. Last season, they ranked 59th.
A big reason for this drop-off was a weakened run defense. After a handful of graduations and a staff change, Minnesota allowed the 30th-most yards per carry in FBS last season.
With more experienced linemen, it could get better, as that was the unit most responsible for the run problems last year. But aside from Carter Coughlin, who often switches between end and linebacker, and Alabama transfer O.J. Smith, there's more depth than talent.
The linebacker corps is in the reverse spot. In addition to Coughlin, there's another terrific pass rusher in Blake Cashman and a terrific tackler in Thomas Barber, arguably Minnesota's best player on either side of the ball last year. Throw in a decent coverage linebacker in Kamal Martin, and you have a strong set of starters. But there is only one backup who isn't a freshman. That makes the situation a little dicey; an injury could force someone inexperienced onto the field and cause major problems.
The secondary is a major concern. Antoine Winfield, Jr.'s return is huge, and senior Jacob Huff cleaned up a lot of messes last season, but a backfield is more than a pair of starting safeties. (Though the aforementioned depth chart, listing five defensive backs instead of designating positions, suggests Minnesota isn't adhering strictly to regular roles.) Huff, Florida transfer Chris Williamson, and nickel back Antonio Shenault are the only upperclassmen in the third level.
There's inexperience almost everywhere else. Redshirt sophomore Kiondre Thomas and true freshman Terell Smith are the starting corners. Seven underclassmen are backups.
Considering last year's problems with pass defense – Minnesota allowed a 63.3-percent completion rate – it's easy to see this area costing them dearly. But it'll hopefully translate into a good secondary in the future.
Winning would be good, obviously, but it's unlikely to happen a lot this season. I think there are enough close matchups to make bowl eligibility, but it will take luck and dramatic overperformance to finish better than fourth in the division.
Illinois is miserable right now, but Lovie Smith has them on track to be okay in 2020 or so.
Since he arrived in 2016, Smith has gone into full tear-down mode and thrown as many freshmen and sophomores onto the field as he can. Entering 2018, the roster has 24 upperclassmen, just eight of whom are seniors. It may work eventually, especially since four-star recruits are starting to sign up: two signed this spring, and another two are committed for next spring's class.
But right now – especially on offense – Illinois has the worst team in the Big Ten and one of the worst in FBS. They're an easy pick for last place.
East
Predicted standings:
1. Ohio State (conference champions)
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Maryland
7. Rutgers
Urban Meyer doesn't deserve his job, but since he still has it, I guess I'll talk about how Ohio State is a national title contender again.
The offense has almost everything back. Sure, there are a couple of linemen to replace, and Dwayne Haskins has to do a lot to succeed J.T. Barrett, but there's talent and experience everywhere.
The rest of the O-line is still around, and they block for a pair of star running backs in J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber. Haskins throws to a stacked set of targets that only loses tight end Marcus Baugh. Seven wideouts caught 17 or more passes last season, and all seven are back. The Buckeyes ranked eighth in yards per play and should produce at a similar level.
The third-ranked defense in FBS has more holes to fill after losing a handful of its stars, like Jerome Baker, Sam Hubbard, Damon Webb, and Chris Worley. But there are still some left over on the line and in the backfield, and last year's reserves got enough playing time, and come with enough pedigree, that it's hard not to trust them in larger roles.
Maybe the defense falls to a top-20 level. With maybe the best offense in the country though, that won't hurt much. And by avoiding any of the top three teams from the West, the Buckeyes might be dealing with less attrition than normal by the time they face Michigan and Michigan State in November.
They are the favorites to win the division and the conference, and we'll have to live with it.
Here's what we know about Michigan: Their defense is one of the country's best.
The Wolverines' greatest strength is their pass defense. They allowed the third-lowest completion rate and the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt. They tied Wisconsin for the eighth-highest sack total. They did not let opponents throw the ball, and they keep enough personnel to keep doing so.
Ends Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich made 30.5 TFLs last season (14 of which were sacks), and both are back. Linebacker Devin Bush added another nine (five sacks) and also doubled as a disruptive cover man, breaking up eight passes and intercepting one. Safety-linebacker hybrid Khaleke Hudson had 17 TFLs (eight sacks), 11 passes defensed, and two forced fumbles. Five more DBs combined to defense 36 passes.
Everyone I just listed is back. There are playmakers across the field, at every level of the defense. Passing the ball against Michigan is folly.
The run defense is a little weaker, but only because it's good (22nd in yards per carry last year) instead of elite. Linebackers Mike McCray and Noah Furbush, and tackle Maurice Hurst graduated, leaving holes to be plugged in the middle. You can extend the Wolverines some benefit of the doubt because of coordinator Don Brown or years of good recruiting, but they still need someone to take those spots.
Despite those slight issues, there's much more to like than dislike with this defense. It's just up to the offense to work itself out.
And it might. Last year's biggest problem was quarterback, and now Michigan starts Mississippi transfer and former top recruit Shea Patterson filling the position. Line continuity and an excellent pair of running backs (Karan Higdon and Chris Evans) means a good ground attack. If Patterson finds rapport with his receivers, including star sophomore Donovan Peoples-Jones, then there's a good aerial attack and a good offense overall.
Michigan faces five teams I have in my forthcoming top 25, plus another that's on the fringe. It will be incredibly difficult to win the East and make the Playoff, but they have the talent.
It's easy to talk yourself into a team when they return as much as Michigan State does this season. I don't trust them as much as the teams ahead of them, but man, do they look impressive – at least on defense, that is.
Down one linebacker and one end, this defense is stout. Linebacker Joe Bachie combined a team-best 73 tackles with three picks last year. Safeties Khari Willis, David Dowell, and Matt Morrissey defensed a combined 18 passes. Corners Justin Layne and Josiah Scott defensed another 22 as underclassmen. End Kenny Willekes made 14.5 TFLs. There are so many playmakers here, which is why the Spartans allowed the 19th-fewest yards per play and are likely to jump into the top 10.
If you want to find potential flaws, I point you to depth at linebacker and and defensive back. There, coordinator Mike Tressel (Jim's nephew) stuck with his top players, and not one returner in either position group who isn't expected to start made 10 tackles. Recruiting can only do so much if injury strikes.
But there are few more dominant defenses in the country when everyone is healthy. The Spartans' will carry them to a good season.
For this to be a great season, experience on offense needs to pay off. Almost everyone returns on this side of the ball too, which could make for a good enough unit to even threaten for the division title. Brian Lewerke is one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and one of the nation's few true dual-threats. With his four favorite targets from last season still around (Nos. 5 and 6 transferred) and hopefully fewer gunslinging impulses, he has enough weaponry to really hurt defenses.
Michigan State prefers to run hulking tailback L.J. Scott between the tackles, and that can work well against weaker defenses (like Minnesota's, against which he averaged 7.8 yards per carry), but not enough to be a viable strategy for every game. Despite Scott's ability and how many carries he gets, he hasn't had a 1,000-yard season in three years in East Lansing because he's never had consistent blocking. After losing center Brian Allen, the best player on the line, that may still be a problem. For the run game to succeed, the remaining linemen need to do better.
If Sparty can produce on offense and get through the season without leaning too much on their backups, they can win the East. It's hard to foresee them doing that just because their rivals are so good too, but it's not impossible.
Penn State's losses are impossible to ignore: arguably the nation's best running back, arguably the nation's best tight end, one of the nation's best receivers, one of the nation's best linebackers, one of the nation's best safeties, one of the nation's best coordinators, and a smattering of important defenders. There's just so much star power that need replacing that it's hard to see them competing with the other powers in the division.
And yet they have an outside shot.
On offense, there's perhaps the best quarterback in college football, Trace McSorley, and a talented supporting cast. Juwan Johnson and DeAndre Thompkins were both highly effective as both possession (combined 68.9-percent catch rate) and big play (14.0 yards per catch) receivers. They can lead a receiving corps that's full of former blue-chip prospects. Nobody can replicate Saquon Barkley and Mike Gesicki, but there's still plenty of ability in the passing game.
The running game is a greater concern. Miles Sanders impressed in his first two years by running for 375 yards and three touchdowns on 56 carries, but we don't know how well he'll play in a full season as the first-team tailback. Continuity on the line and four-stars behind Sanders suggest the Nittany Lions will be good but substantially less dynamic on the ground.
On defense, there's a front seven that can still succeed without Jason Cabinda and Brandon Smith. Koa Farmer, and Cam Brown should be fine as two-thirds of a starting linebacker set. There are a lot of disruptive linemen, including 11-TFL end Shareef Miller.
But you have to be concerned. Linebacker Manny Bowen left the team this week, forcing some of Penn State's iffy depth into a larger role. Though the secondary regains one defensive back from injury, John Reid, it loses four more. If Amani Oruwariye and Lamont Wade play well in bigger roles at corner, that still doesn't fix safety, where the two projected starters' combined tackles total did not match that of either departing starter. I don't know about the backup DBs either; they have pedigree but not experience.
There are enough seasoned players on defense for me to think Penn State should still be good there, but not enough for me to think they won't suffer some drop off. The playmaking ability left on offense is encouraging too, but I doubt it will be the same. With a smoother transition than I expect, these Nittany Lions can threaten for the East again. I just don't at all expect them to win it.
The good news: Indiana's offense is getting better.
Sophomore quarterback Peyton Ramsey was unremarkable but steady (6.1 yards per attempt and a 65.4-percent completion rate) in eight games last season, and he should be alright over a full season. Though favorite target Simmie Cobbs left for the NFL, most of the receiving corps is back, including the sure-handed senior Luke Timian and a couple of capable sophomores, Taysir Mack and Elias "Whop" Philyor. The line has ample experience and should create more for a previously lifeless run game. Put it together, and you have an offense that's uninspiring but on the rise.
The bad news: Indiana's defense is getting worse.
Four of the Hoosiers' five leading tacklers, their leading cover man, and three top linemen graduated – which is, in a word, bad. But the secondary and especially the line saw plenty of rotation, leaving a lot of players left over in each position group. Jacob Robinson, Allen Stallings IV, Mike Barwick, Jr., and Jerome Johnson combined for 19 TFLs last year. Jonathan Crawford (nine passes defensed) is easily the most trustworthy remaining defensive back, but if Marcelino Ball (10 as a freshman in 2016) makes a solid return from injury, he'll have a playmaking partner to go with the depth behind him. Linebacker looks like more of a problem, and that's where turnover will hurt the most. Put it together, and you have a defense that's weakened but not depleted.
It's inconceivable that IU finishes better than fifth because of the teams above them, but the schedule is kind enough, and there are enough assets, that the Hoosiers can approach bowl eligibility.
Maryland has had talented rosters for the past few seasons thanks to solid recruiting, but the wheels keep sputtering off and into a ravine. Injuries ruined prior seasons; this year, it's the revelation of a negligent and hostile environment inside the program that got a player killed and should get head coach D.J. Durkin fired. (We await the findings of the school's investigation.)
Regardless of if Durkin loses his job, the team is in a turbulent place and could play worse as a result. Already at a disadvantage because of the giants atop the division, the Terrapins' football-specific concerns are even greater.
Looking at the schedule, one sees two near-sure wins (Bowling Green and Illinois), at least three games where the Terps are at least slight favorites (Temple, Minnesota, Rutgers), and (depending on your opinions of Texas and Iowa) as many as six potential blowout losses. Winning the tight games, then, is what they have to do to go bowling. Winning all of them requires more luck than Maryland has ever shown they have.
Rutgers may be getting better on defense, but that won't matter with such an inexperienced and hapless offense.
A true freshman, Artur Sitowski, starts at quarterback with a young offensive line, a sophomore running back (Raheem Blackshear, who admittedly impressed last year but only had 39 carries), and a bunch of sophomore receivers. Considering how many freshman saw the field last season, that looks like at least a slightly better offense than the one that finished as the fourth-worst (by yards per play) in the country last season. It's well below any respectable standard, however.
Though upperclassmen populate the defensive starting 11, including a handful of decent playmakers in the secondary, it's hard to see anything but a last-place season when the other side of the ball cannot produce.
It's easy to talk yourself into a team when they return as much as Michigan State does this season. I don't trust them as much as the teams ahead of them, but man, do they look impressive – at least on defense, that is.
Down one linebacker and one end, this defense is stout. Linebacker Joe Bachie combined a team-best 73 tackles with three picks last year. Safeties Khari Willis, David Dowell, and Matt Morrissey defensed a combined 18 passes. Corners Justin Layne and Josiah Scott defensed another 22 as underclassmen. End Kenny Willekes made 14.5 TFLs. There are so many playmakers here, which is why the Spartans allowed the 19th-fewest yards per play and are likely to jump into the top 10.
If you want to find potential flaws, I point you to depth at linebacker and and defensive back. There, coordinator Mike Tressel (Jim's nephew) stuck with his top players, and not one returner in either position group who isn't expected to start made 10 tackles. Recruiting can only do so much if injury strikes.
But there are few more dominant defenses in the country when everyone is healthy. The Spartans' will carry them to a good season.
For this to be a great season, experience on offense needs to pay off. Almost everyone returns on this side of the ball too, which could make for a good enough unit to even threaten for the division title. Brian Lewerke is one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and one of the nation's few true dual-threats. With his four favorite targets from last season still around (Nos. 5 and 6 transferred) and hopefully fewer gunslinging impulses, he has enough weaponry to really hurt defenses.
Michigan State prefers to run hulking tailback L.J. Scott between the tackles, and that can work well against weaker defenses (like Minnesota's, against which he averaged 7.8 yards per carry), but not enough to be a viable strategy for every game. Despite Scott's ability and how many carries he gets, he hasn't had a 1,000-yard season in three years in East Lansing because he's never had consistent blocking. After losing center Brian Allen, the best player on the line, that may still be a problem. For the run game to succeed, the remaining linemen need to do better.
If Sparty can produce on offense and get through the season without leaning too much on their backups, they can win the East. It's hard to foresee them doing that just because their rivals are so good too, but it's not impossible.
Penn State's losses are impossible to ignore: arguably the nation's best running back, arguably the nation's best tight end, one of the nation's best receivers, one of the nation's best linebackers, one of the nation's best safeties, one of the nation's best coordinators, and a smattering of important defenders. There's just so much star power that need replacing that it's hard to see them competing with the other powers in the division.
And yet they have an outside shot.
On offense, there's perhaps the best quarterback in college football, Trace McSorley, and a talented supporting cast. Juwan Johnson and DeAndre Thompkins were both highly effective as both possession (combined 68.9-percent catch rate) and big play (14.0 yards per catch) receivers. They can lead a receiving corps that's full of former blue-chip prospects. Nobody can replicate Saquon Barkley and Mike Gesicki, but there's still plenty of ability in the passing game.
The running game is a greater concern. Miles Sanders impressed in his first two years by running for 375 yards and three touchdowns on 56 carries, but we don't know how well he'll play in a full season as the first-team tailback. Continuity on the line and four-stars behind Sanders suggest the Nittany Lions will be good but substantially less dynamic on the ground.
On defense, there's a front seven that can still succeed without Jason Cabinda and Brandon Smith. Koa Farmer, and Cam Brown should be fine as two-thirds of a starting linebacker set. There are a lot of disruptive linemen, including 11-TFL end Shareef Miller.
But you have to be concerned. Linebacker Manny Bowen left the team this week, forcing some of Penn State's iffy depth into a larger role. Though the secondary regains one defensive back from injury, John Reid, it loses four more. If Amani Oruwariye and Lamont Wade play well in bigger roles at corner, that still doesn't fix safety, where the two projected starters' combined tackles total did not match that of either departing starter. I don't know about the backup DBs either; they have pedigree but not experience.
There are enough seasoned players on defense for me to think Penn State should still be good there, but not enough for me to think they won't suffer some drop off. The playmaking ability left on offense is encouraging too, but I doubt it will be the same. With a smoother transition than I expect, these Nittany Lions can threaten for the East again. I just don't at all expect them to win it.
The good news: Indiana's offense is getting better.
Sophomore quarterback Peyton Ramsey was unremarkable but steady (6.1 yards per attempt and a 65.4-percent completion rate) in eight games last season, and he should be alright over a full season. Though favorite target Simmie Cobbs left for the NFL, most of the receiving corps is back, including the sure-handed senior Luke Timian and a couple of capable sophomores, Taysir Mack and Elias "Whop" Philyor. The line has ample experience and should create more for a previously lifeless run game. Put it together, and you have an offense that's uninspiring but on the rise.
The bad news: Indiana's defense is getting worse.
Four of the Hoosiers' five leading tacklers, their leading cover man, and three top linemen graduated – which is, in a word, bad. But the secondary and especially the line saw plenty of rotation, leaving a lot of players left over in each position group. Jacob Robinson, Allen Stallings IV, Mike Barwick, Jr., and Jerome Johnson combined for 19 TFLs last year. Jonathan Crawford (nine passes defensed) is easily the most trustworthy remaining defensive back, but if Marcelino Ball (10 as a freshman in 2016) makes a solid return from injury, he'll have a playmaking partner to go with the depth behind him. Linebacker looks like more of a problem, and that's where turnover will hurt the most. Put it together, and you have a defense that's weakened but not depleted.
It's inconceivable that IU finishes better than fifth because of the teams above them, but the schedule is kind enough, and there are enough assets, that the Hoosiers can approach bowl eligibility.
Maryland has had talented rosters for the past few seasons thanks to solid recruiting, but the wheels keep sputtering off and into a ravine. Injuries ruined prior seasons; this year, it's the revelation of a negligent and hostile environment inside the program that got a player killed and should get head coach D.J. Durkin fired. (We await the findings of the school's investigation.)
Regardless of if Durkin loses his job, the team is in a turbulent place and could play worse as a result. Already at a disadvantage because of the giants atop the division, the Terrapins' football-specific concerns are even greater.
Looking at the schedule, one sees two near-sure wins (Bowling Green and Illinois), at least three games where the Terps are at least slight favorites (Temple, Minnesota, Rutgers), and (depending on your opinions of Texas and Iowa) as many as six potential blowout losses. Winning the tight games, then, is what they have to do to go bowling. Winning all of them requires more luck than Maryland has ever shown they have.
Rutgers may be getting better on defense, but that won't matter with such an inexperienced and hapless offense.
A true freshman, Artur Sitowski, starts at quarterback with a young offensive line, a sophomore running back (Raheem Blackshear, who admittedly impressed last year but only had 39 carries), and a bunch of sophomore receivers. Considering how many freshman saw the field last season, that looks like at least a slightly better offense than the one that finished as the fourth-worst (by yards per play) in the country last season. It's well below any respectable standard, however.
Though upperclassmen populate the defensive starting 11, including a handful of decent playmakers in the secondary, it's hard to see anything but a last-place season when the other side of the ball cannot produce.
* * *
Up next: With all the conference previews out of the way, I present my Heisman watch list, top 25, and bowl projections.
Tons of credit for stats go to S&P+ creator and SB Nation writer Bill Connelly, whose advanced statistical profiles are invaluable for their detail. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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