In this post, we discuss the MAC and Mountain West.
Mid-American Conference
West
1. Toledo (conference champions)
2. Northern Illinois
3. Western Michigan
4. Central Michigan
5. Eastern Michigan
6. Ball State
Since Tim Beckman took over Toledo in 2009, the Rockets have gone 77-38 (.670) overall and 55-18 (.753) in MAC play, yet they did not have a conference title to show for it – until last season. Thanks to a potent offense and a reliable enough defense, Jason Candle claimed the trophy his predecessors could not.
But while the Rockets remain one of the West frontrunners, they have a lot to replace on offense. Logan Woodside, a 38-game starter under center in his Toledo career and last year's MAC Offensive Player of the Year, headlines a big graduating class. Four linemen, including first-team all-conference tackles Elijah Nkansah and Brant Weiss, also depart. As does another first-teamer, 1,363-yard rusher Terry Swanson.
Good news though: Replacing those players might not be that hard.
Apart from quarterback (either junior Mitch Guadagni or sophomore Eli Peters is expected to take over), the skill positions look set.
Junior Diontae Johnson and senior Jon'Vea Johnson, easily the team's leaders in targets and receptions, lead a mostly intact receiving group. The new QB will definitely have throwing options.
Swanson has a pair of potential successors in line in Shakif Seymour and Art Thompkins. Their combined rushing total last season fell short of Swanson's by 32 yards. They can probably split time as the No. 1 back; if not, surely one of them is capable enough to hold the job down by himself.
The offensive line is harder to trust, but it's not devoid of experience. Junior Bryce Harris started games at every interior position, including the last four at right guard. Chandler Cotterman and Brandon Heidecker, also juniors, got time at guard as well. Senior Yazeed Atariwa, the starting left guard for the first four games before suffering a season-ending injury against Miami, returns. There are plenty of experienced players on the inside. Hopefully, some tackles emerge.
The defense may face inexperience problems a year from now, but it's relatively fine for the time being. In the secondary, four of five starters return, and that departed starter (corner Trevon Mathis: 26 tackles, eight pass breakups, three interceptions) looks to have a suitable replacement (Justin Clark: 27.5 tackles, five pass breakups, two interceptions). The team that allowed the 11th-lowest completion percentage in FBS could do even better in pass defense.
Less sure is the front six, where just one starter returns. Considering the problems Toledo had stopping the run (94th-ranked rush defense by yards per carry) and sacking opposing QBs (97th-ranked pass rush by sack rate), that could be costly.
At linebacker, Richard Olekanma and Tyler Taafe look fine, having gotten plenty of playing time off the bench last season.
Filling the four defensive line spots will be harder. Olasunkanmi Adeniyi, a 20-TFL, 8-sack rush end, would have made a great playmaker for the Rockets to get back; instead, he'll try to make the Pittsburgh Steelers' roster. At tackle, lone incumbent Nate Childress is supported by Reggie Howard and possibly Derrius Mullins, a three-star freshman weighing 325 pounds. Tuzar Skipper – who missed most of last year – and Willie Ross – who plays tackle but was listed before the bowl game as Adeniyi's backup – might start at end. I wouldn't expect many sacks out of this line.
Even with the question marks at quarterback and on their lines, Toledo enters 2018 with a strong chance to repeat as MAC champions.
If Toledo represents the safest bet in the West, Northern Illinois is the most based on potential.
Before we get to that potential though, let's focus on what we know about the Huskies: They have a great defense. No mid-majors, and just six teams from power conferences, allowed fewer yards per play than Northern Illinois. Their third down defense ranked eighth. The NIU pass rush ranked 10th in sack rate. If you want to find a weak point: Their secondary was merely good instead of great, ranking 44th in yards per pass attempt allowed.
With most key contributors coming back for 2018, this should remain a top-notch defense. Linebacker Jawuan Johnson and rush end Sutton Smith are the players to watch. Johnson finished second on the team in tackles (78.5) and tackles for loss (18), and first in forced fumbles (five) and interceptions (five). Smith, meanwhile, smote all that stood before him, leading the nation in TFLs (29.5!) and tying for first with Central Michigan's Joe Ostman in sacks (14) – as a sophomore.
Now, NIU had a good defense already, and that got them a second-place finished in the West. Their offense, however, was not as strong. They put up a lot of points and a lot of yards, sure, but on a per-play basis, they averaged just 4.9 yards per play – as much as Oregon State and BYU did. Hardly inspiring.
But there is definite room for growth, and enough of it might put the Huskies over the top. Quarterback Marcus Childers was a better runner than passer, but for a redshirt freshman, his season was just fine. His favorite target, Christian Blake, graduated, but the more reliable Spencer Tears (56-percent catch rate and 12.3 yards per catch to Blake's 47 percent and 5.0 yards) is back. Slot receiver D.J. Brown was at least sure-handed and could be a nice security blanket. Jauan Wesley is intriguing if somewhat unproven; his 250 yards on just 10 receptions could betray a player with big-play potential.
The offense loses its best running back, Jordan Huff, but the candidates to replace Huff were at least passable last season. Marcus Jones got the most carries of the backups, but Tre Harbison and Tommy Mister each did more with their opportunities, averaging 5.3 and 4.8 yards per carry to Jones' 4.2. Even if none of the three are talented enough, their deficiencies should be masked by an experienced offensive line. All five starters come back having missed a total of four starts last season, which could foreshadow some improvement. (Only one backup got starting experience, so you could also worry about depth.)
How much better does this offense need to be to take Northern Illinois to Detroit? Perhaps just getting out of the bottom quartile might be enough. With a defense that took them to the doorstep in 2017, the Huskies might need only slight improvement offensively to take the division.
It's easy to look at Western Michigan's falloff last year as entirely the result of losing P.J. Fleck to Minnesota, but while that undoubtedly played a role, there was no way WMU could make up for losing Zach Terrell, Corey Davis, Taylor Moton, and more from one of the most efficient offenses in the country. Even if Fleck had stayed, it would have been a worse year.
And even then, the Broncos didn't do that poorly in Tim Lester's first season. Going 6-6 in a transition year is perfectly acceptable, and things could definitely improve.
To begin with, instead of two All-Americans and a second-team All-MAC quarterback, the Broncos have to replace one All-American (tackle Chukwuma Okorafor), the program's all-time leading rusher (Jarvion Franklin), and a second-team all-MAC tight end (Donnie Ernsberger).
Actually, let me try to re-frame that.
While Okorafor is a major loss on the offensive line, he's also the only member of the line who needs replacing. All-MAC first-team center John Keenoy, second-team guard Luke Juriga, and two other starters return. With that experience, a passable offensive line can become a good one.
The main beneficiaries of that line are tailbacks Jamauri Bogan and LeVante Bellamy. Bogan and Bellamy were about as good as you could get from a backup rushing duo, averaging 6.1 yards per carry between them. The former had some fumble problems that might warrant some concern, but I'm inclined to trust them to pick up where Franklin left off.
At quarterback will be Jon Wassink, who was pretty much immobile but a reliable passer before breaking his collar bone against Eastern Michigan. Considering how much worse Reece Goddard in his stead – Goddard's sack rate was almost double that of Wassnik, and his completion percentage was almost 20 points lower – Western will benefit greatly from having Wassnik back. With all six leading wideouts still on the roster, this passing attack could be electric even without Ernsberger.
Will the 2018 offense be as effective as the 2016 one? Probably not, but it could be pretty good. I don't expect a West title, considering the strength of the frontrunners, the difficulty of playing Ohio cross-division, and the loss of five defensive starters (including all three linebackers). A solid, eight-win season and later, a chance at the division in 2019, however? That seems very possible.
It feels like Central Michigan can always hit a six- or seven-win floor, but it might be tougher in 2018 than it has been in the past. Using Bill Connelly's returning production stat, only two programs return less than the Chips this season, and none return less on offense.
Second-team all-MAC running back Jonathan Ward is the only major offensive player returning. Two starting linemen, the three leading wide receivers, the starting tight end, and the starting quarterback are all graduated. This could be rough.
The defense is in better shape, but end Joe Ostman's FBS-joint-leading 14 sacks will be tough to replace. Defensive backs Amari Coleman, Josh Cox, and Darwyn Kelly (15 pass breakups and 10 interceptions between them) are huge contributors to lose.
Potentially capable replacements are easier to find on this side of the ball though; Mike Danna and Nathan Brisson-Fast had good 2017 seasons on the line, and Sean Bunting and D'Quaun Jamison may make solid cover corners. Retaining the linebacker corps is nice too.
I expect six or seven wins again in Mount Pleasant just out of force of habit, but this year, that looks much more like the ceiling than the floor.
After years and years of being the worst program in FBS, Eastern Michigan was suddenly just below average in 2017. You can't often say that about a team that lost six straight games, but you can't often say a team lost six one-possession games, either. Perhaps winning three games by exactly three points means I shouldn't necessarily say EMU got a ton of bad luck, but it's fair to say they were probably at least a little better than their 5-7 record.
The defense was definitely respectable: they allowed the 33rd-fewest points per game, mostly because of a secondary that gave up plenty of catches but posted the 32nd-lowest yards per completion figure in FBS. Most attrition is up front rather than in the back, so the underwhelming run defense will get worse, but it will probably be even harder for the Eagles' opponents to rack up tons of yards through the air.
Unfortunately for Chris Creighton though, it may be harder for him to do that as well. Lots of receivers got targets and receptions in 2018, but of the top five, only one (junior Matthew Sexton) returns. While quarterback Brogan Roback was not extraordinary, and this offense is built more on short passes than big gains, you'd prefer a more experienced hand at the wheel than sophomore Isaac Stiebeling and Iowa grad transfer Tyler Wiegers (combined 23 career pass attempts). Unless they find a run game, the Eagles might have major problems moving the ball.
So perhaps get ready for low-scoring games, and hope for a bowl. Don't expect a ton more.
To give you an idea of how Ball State's 2017 went: Four players started at quarterback, and the position might have been among the least of their problems. Nobody stayed healthy, and most players on the field ended up being underclassmen.
When underclassmen get experience, regardless of circumstance, that often brings success (or something closer to it) down the line. Surely those who were pressed into action know better what they're doing now. But how much can you trust a still young team that won two games last season?
In 2019, you might see a breakout. Right now, you'll probably see some improvement but still plenty of bad play.
East
Predicted standings:
1. Ohio
2. Miami
3. Buffalo
4. Bowling Green
5. Akron
6. Kent State
How did Ohio lose to Akron last year? A win over the Zips would have given the Bobcats the East Division title and a chance to do even more damage to a Toledo team they hammered 38-10 just a week earlier. Yet the MAC's best team lost to one that was decidedly not the MAC's best, and a week later, they clinched second place by losing to an unremarkable Buffalo.
They have a great opportunity to avenge that failure, however.
On offense, four-fifths of the starting offensive line (including second-team all-MAC selections Joe Anderson and Joe Lowery), the starting running back (1,006-yard rusher A.J. Ouellette), the starting quarterback (1,008-non-sack-yard rusher Nathan Rourke), and two starting receivers return. Last year, that offense averaged 42.3 points per game despite a decidedly run-first approach and a middling pace.
If everyone stays healthy, opposing defenses don't have much of a chance.
The Bobcats' own defense, meanwhile, looks passable, albeit significantly weakened. Six of the front seven, including lead tackler Quentin Poling, graduated. Even with a mostly intact secondary (minus top cornerback Bradd Ellis), that's bound to cause problems.
If you believe in Ohio's depth, which did see plenty of snaps last season, then you can have faith in the new starters. If you believe those players need to be broken in a bit more, you can see the defense holding back the rest of the team. I feel something closer to the latter, but I still consider the Bobcats easily the best team in the East.
Setting aside routs at the hands of Notre Dame and Ohio, Miami was competitive in every game they played last season. In their five other losses, the average margin of defeat was 4.6 points; in their five wins, the average margin of victory was 15.8 points. Talent-wise, this was not a 5-7 team.
That remains the case for the 2018 Redhawks as well. Of the eight linemen who started at least one game last season, seven remain. Starting quarterback Gus Ragland remains, and so does his top receiver, James Gardner. The tailback duo of Kenny Young and Alonzo Smith remains. The only major question mark for this year's is whether the receiving corps, the most depleted position group, has enough depth after Gardner.
While the Miami offense was far from incredible last season, it was competent. With so much continuity, it should be better than that.
Continuity is also the theme for the Miami defense, where only three regular starters from last year are gone. This is good news, as this unit was in the top half of the conference. The secondary – which held opponents to a 52.6-percent completion rate – loses two important players in safety Tony Reid and corner Heath Harding, but plenty of backups received playing time last year and should make for a deep backfield. The front seven could use more disruptors but is fine.
The Redhawks will benefit from some regression to the mean, and from plenty of experience, and finish with a better record in 2018.
A lot of teams, especially at the mid-major level, are only good on one side of the ball. Buffalo, however, broke through last year because neither unit was especially bad.
Offensively, led by first-team All-MAC receiver Anthony Johnson, the Bulls averaged 6.3 yards per play, good for 30th in FBS. Defensively, led by first-team All-MAC linebacker Khalil Hodge, they averaged 5.5 yards per play, good for 55th in FBS. You might even call that good.
Now, I won't pretend this is an excellent team, seeing as how all they could manage with a pretty easy schedule was a .500 season. But it's the first Buffalo team with a pulse in years, and now Lance Leipold has an experienced enough roster to do even better than .500. They aren't really a threat to win the division; the season could still approach historically great by Buffalo's standards.
For Bowling Green to show some kind of progress in Mike Jinks' third year, the Eagles' defense has to get better. Four times, they allowed 48 points or more; for the year, they averaged 38 points per game allowed. Only five teams had worse run defenses by yards per carry. Only Oregon State allowed more first downs per game. This was one of the worst defenses in the country, and it wasted good performances by a respectable offense.
Akron lost games by a lot (average margin of defeat: 26.4 points) and won by a little (excluding their 52-3 romp over FCS Arkansas-Pine Bluff, average margin of victory: 9 points), but somehow, they managed a seven-win regular season and a division title. That isn't at all replicable.
Though the Zips' defense was decent and is improving, it won't be enough to drag this team back to earth. With most regulars gone, the offense will likely go from bad to horrendous. A bowl is only possible because Akron avoids the two West powers and plays FCS Morgan State (who, it should be noted, didn't score until their fourth game of 2017). With luck, a bowl is the ceiling.
I don't know where exactly Kent State's ceiling is, but it's certainly not a bowl. Paul Haynes left a decidedly bare cupboard for his successor, Sean Lewis, and the rebuild will take years to complete. This season, last place is just about preordained.
Mountain West
Mountain
Predicted standings:
1. Boise State (conference champions)
2. Utah State
3. Wyoming
4. Colorado State
5. Air Force
6. New Mexico
Boise State looks downright ferocious on defense. Leighton Vander Esch leaving for the NFL hurts a little, sure, but it's hard not to look at how many players return from an already stout unit and be wowed.
Let's start up front. Three Bronco linemen made All-Mountain West. All three are back, led by first-team rush end Curtis Weaver. As a freshman, Weaver made 11 sacks, the most of any player in the conference. Second-teamer Jabril Frazier, officially the starter at rush end, added 6 sacks of his own. These two and the other Boise linemen helped hold opponents to just 3.4 yards per carry last season – and only one member of the two-deep graduated.
The secondary, responsible for the eighth-lowest yards per completion mark in FBS, is also practically the same. Just one member of the end-of-season two-deep is gone. Safety Kekoa Nawahine, the leading returning tackler and a second-team all-conference selection; and corner Tyler Horton, a first-team selection who led the Broncos in pass breakups, are the two standouts among a loaded stable of defensive backs.
If you were to find a relative flaw somewhere, it would be at linebacker. Vander Esch is not the kind of player you can easily replace, and the graduation of Gabe Perez means one linebacker with starting experience remains, junior Tyson Maeva. For the drop-off in production to be limited, the experience Desmond Williams, Riley Whimpey, and Benton Wickersham got as freshmen last season will have to immediately pay off.
The Boise defense, despite the potential linebacker problems, is arguably the best in the Mountain West. The offense, meanwhile, is merely one of the best after losing some important pieces – specifically, four all-conference players: tight end Jake Roe, linemen Mason Hampton and Archie Lewis, and star wideout Cedrick Wilson.
Wilson is the biggest departure; he more than doubled the team's next receiver in targets and receptions, and he more than tripled the next receiver in yardage. Though the next four receivers on the roster come back, none have shown the same playmaking ability.
The positives: Hampton and Lewis were the only linemen to leave. Brett Rypien, one of the Group of Five's top quarterbacks, returns after a strong junior season. Thousand-yard rusher Alexander Mattison comes back too. Even after losing some star power, the Broncos have a pretty good offense.
This Boise State team won't carry on the program's tradition of prolific offenses, but an elite defense can carry them to another Mountain West title.
It is a horribly crowded race to second place in the Mountain Division. As many as four teams have a chance to finish runners-up to Boise. Let's run through the challengers.
From Logan, the Utah State Aggies, who are back on track after tailing off in the third and fourth years of Matt Wells' tenure, and who receive a boost from drawing Hawai'i and San Jose State in their cross-division schedule.
Jordan Love had a respectable half-season as the Aggies' starting quarterback, and there are few things like an experienced receiving corps to comfort a developing sophomore. Ron'quavion Tarver is the best of four wideouts that received 20-plus targets last season and are back for 2018; 6-foot-5-inch tight end Dax Raymond, second on the team in catches, also returns. Whether the run game functions with a new tailback – maybe senior Eltoro Allen, sophomore Tre Miller, or junior converted receiver Gerold Bright – is unknown, but Utah State has the makings of a passing attack.
With a consistently good defense that returns almost everybody, too, this could be a solid team.
With a consistently good defense that returns almost everybody, too, this could be a solid team.
From Laramie, the Wyoming Cowboys, who have a comparable defense to that of the boys from Boise, but with none of the offense.
Can a team with a revolving offensive line and a woefully inconsistent quarterback become worse at moving the ball? Well, yes, but mercifully, that fate will probably avoid the Cowboys this year. Despite a pair of redshirt freshmen appearing as starting linemen on the post-spring depth chart, too many skill players come back for this offense to not at least maintain the same level of bad, if not improve upon it a little.
But that defense! It looks really good. Carl Granderson and Youhanna Ghaifan make for a formidable pair of pass rushers. There's a dearth of experience at corner, but safeties Marcus Epps and Andrew Wingard are talented enough at the back to alleviate those problems a bit. Mike linebacker Logan Wilson, having recorded 100 tackles last year, will do well anchoring the middle of the field. It's not a defense that can single-handedly win a division, but it will keep Wyoming competitive.
From Fort Collins, the Colorado State Rams, whose run of great recruiting will have to pay off quickly in order to salvage an offense ravaged by graduation.
The biggest losses are the stars: Quarterback Nick Stevens, a three-year starter and a first-team All-Mountain West selection as a senior; receiver Michael Gallup, one of the best players in program history and a consensus All-American; running back Dalyn Dawkins, who averaged 6.2 yards per carry last season; and Jake Bennett and Zack Golditch, two first-team all-conference linemen.
On top of that, three more starters graduated. Thanks to basic subtraction, we know this leaves just three regular starters from the 2017 offense. While some other players have starting experience (including quarterback Collin Hill, who wasn't bad filling in for Stevens two years ago), that's a lot of turnover that will surely lead to a worse offense. Mike Bobo's Rams are probably in for a reset year.
On top of that, three more starters graduated. Thanks to basic subtraction, we know this leaves just three regular starters from the 2017 offense. While some other players have starting experience (including quarterback Collin Hill, who wasn't bad filling in for Stevens two years ago), that's a lot of turnover that will surely lead to a worse offense. Mike Bobo's Rams are probably in for a reset year.
And from Colorado Springs, the Air Force Falcons, whose offense keeps them consistently average or better but who need some kind of defense to compete.
Service academies usually field junior- and senior-heavy teams, and last year's Falcons weren't any different, but there are enough returning players that some kind of improvement possible at the important positions. Three important linebackers graduated, but Air Force gets one back in Lakota Wills, who finished second on the team in tackles for loss as a freshman. Top defensive back Marquis Griffin graduated, but most of the rest of the secondary did not. The line was unimpressive last year but brings back almost everyone.
I wouldn't count on Air Force being anything remarkable, but they could conceivably jump up and grab second or third place.
Service academies usually field junior- and senior-heavy teams, and last year's Falcons weren't any different, but there are enough returning players that some kind of improvement possible at the important positions. Three important linebackers graduated, but Air Force gets one back in Lakota Wills, who finished second on the team in tackles for loss as a freshman. Top defensive back Marquis Griffin graduated, but most of the rest of the secondary did not. The line was unimpressive last year but brings back almost everyone.
I wouldn't count on Air Force being anything remarkable, but they could conceivably jump up and grab second or third place.
Left out of all this is New Mexico, who suffered greatly from roster turnover last year and might have almost (read: probably should have) lost their head coach this offseason.
Fortunately for the Lobos, they get a good number of offensive players back. Unfortunately for the Lobos (in the short term), they have a new offensive coordinator who doesn't run a straight triple option. The defense might be better with some JuCo help, but this season could be rough overall.
West
Predicted standings:
1. Fresno State
2. San Diego State
3. UNLV
4. Nevada
5. Hawai'i
6. San Jose State
The West race is between two teams separated by little. Not even cross-division slates can determine this year's division champion; the only difference between the frontrunners' schedules is that one hosts Wyoming while the other hosts Air Force. You can pick either and have a legitimate case.
In a fashion atypical for him a powerful defense is what led the way instead of a prolific offense. Seven players racked up 5.0 or more tackles for loss, resulting in the 15th-ranked rush defense in the country (using, as usual, yards per attempt). While the secondary allowed a good number of completions, they kept those completions from hurting them too badly, finishing 20th in the country in yards per pass attempt allowed. And each of their seven leading tacklers are back, including star cornerback Jaron Bryant and first-team all-conference linebacker Jeffrey Allison, the team's leading tackler.
What might hurt: Along the defensive line, all four starters need replacing. Between them, those guys contributed 36.5 tackles for loss and 18 sacks, which is no small sum. Some younger players got reps and could conceivably be serviceable in their place; it is doubtful the new line will match the production of the old one.
Offensively, there are no major holes to fill. That's both because few regulars are gone and because last season's offense was pretty much average. Those two things, as well as Tedford's track record, should mean an above-average offense.
Receiver KeeSean Johnson is the Bulldogs' most recognizable playmaker, having reeled in eight touchdowns last season, but wideouts Jamire Jordan and Derrion Grimm, as well as tight end Jared Rice, all deserve mention; each averaged more yards per catch than Johnson, albeit in significantly fewer opportunities. This team will be able to throw.
Fresno State isn't surprising anyone this season. We now know they can win the division, and based on the three-point loss they suffered to Boise in the title game last season, we know they can win the conference, too. With a winnable but respectable non-conference plate (versus Idaho, at Minnesota, at UCLA, versus Toledo), and likely another pair of games against Boise, they have the schedule to take the Group of Five's New Year's Six bid.
But winning the West comes first, and Rocky Long's San Diego State lies in the way.
Overall the last several seasons, the SDSU formula has been simple: stifle the opposition when they have the ball, and let a top running back lead the way when you have the ball. Since 2014, the Aztecs have consistently ranked in the top quarter of FBS in yards per play allowed; and Donnel Pumphrey (career 6.0 yards per carry) and Rashaad Penny (career 7.5 yards per carry) had their turns making defenders look foolish. Seems like an effective enough formula for me.
Maintaining the first half of that formula looks very possible. Last year's Aztec defense found success without being particularly impressive up front or in the backfield; they just were above-average in both areas. SDSU ranked 36th in yards per carry and 56th in yards per pass attempt allowed, which put together meant the 31st-ranked defense by overall yards per play allowed. Sometimes, general competence is all you need.
Half the starting front six is gone, but I'm not entirely worried. Four ends who received playing time last season return, including leading TFL-getter Noble Hall and leading sack-getter Chibu Onyeukwu. Ronley Lakalaka, Troy Cassidy, and Kyavha Tezino (assuming Tezino, being more experienced than the other options, slides over to middle linebacker) should make for a good enough starting linebacker trio.
What's tough is finding someone to replace Sergio Phillips, who recorded just one tackle for loss but represented the vast majority of snaps at nose. Senior Damon Moore is the likely successor, but he made just 8.5 tackles last season, and if he is injured, it's a series of undersized or inexperienced candidates in line to fill in for him.
Linebacker depth is another potential problem. Andrew Aleki, a true sophomore, is the only backup linebacker with a tackle to his name last season. The rest are freshmen and sophomores who either didn't show up on a stat sheet, redshirted, or only just arrived to campus. Counting on a pristine health record is usually not a sound strategy.
Meanwhile, the secondary should still be pretty good despite losing a pair of major contributors. As underclassmen, safety Tariq Thompson and corner Ron Smith combined for 108.5 tackles (5.0 for loss), seven interceptions, and 20 pass breakups (four-fifths of which, admittedly, belonged to Smith). The bench might be shaky but is not worth too much concern, as the backups at defensive backs saw the field a little more often than those in the first and second levels did.
As to the second half of the Aztecs' winning formula: The entire starting offensive line is back to block for hopefully the newest SDSU star tailback, Juwan Washington. Last season, Washington had a good sample size – 127 carries – to prove he could indeed continue this rushing dynasty, and 759 yards (6.0 per carry) and eight touchdowns later, I'm sold. This offense will function as normal.
Put it together, and you'll likely have another formidable San Diego State team. Will I favor Fresno State, it's not hard to see the Aztecs beating their rivals from the Valley and taking the West.
If not for a tough schedule, UNLV would be a strong candidate for potentially even a nine-win season. Tony Sanchez's team is flawed but certainly experienced enough to be competitive in most of their games – and once again finish in third in the West. Though there will be progress, it could look more like stagnation.
The Rebs return much of an already effective run-first offense (16th in FBS in yards per carry), including backfield partners Lexington Thomas (1,336 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns at tailback) and 2017 Mountain West Freshman of the Year Armani Rogers (915 rushing yards and eight touchdowns at quarterback). If Rogers can improve as a passer, they'll have enough of a passing game to challenge opposing defenses in multiple ways.
The reps they got need to translate into some kind of improvement. If they do, the defense could be close enough to passable for the offense to lead the way.
Unfortunately, out-of-conference games against USC and Arkansas State, a cross-division game against Utah State, and division games against Fresno State and SDSU likely makes eight wins an optimistic ceiling. But UNLV should be favored in the other seven games on their schedule, and that can at least make for a respectable season ending in a bowl.
In Reno, the Wolf Pack hopes experience will help them too. Thanks to a talented quarterback in Ty Gangi and a capable set of receivers like sophomore McLane Mannix, Nevada should definitely be able to pass the ball.
More questionable (I'm being generous) is a defense that was downright appalling (now I'm not) in 2017. The UNR defense was decent against the run but crumbled against the pass, allowing the sixth-highest completion percentage and the 10th-most yards per pass attempt. I believe in improvement through experience, but I don't believe in miracles. By my count, five players with a tackle from last year's secondary are back; only three actually got significant playing time. That lack of depth is ominous.
The best-case scenario is that the offense keeps Nevada in a bunch of shootouts. The worst-case scenario is that they get torched every week.
In Rolovich's first year at Hawai'i, the Rainbow Warriors were better than they had been in years, going bowling for the first time since 2010.
In his second year, they won these games: 38-35 over 4-8 UMass, 41-18 over FCS Western Carolina, and 37-26 over 2-11 San Jose State. Not great.
After graduations and especially transfers, things look even more bleak. I have to think they're better than San Jose State, but I can't say for sure. The September 29 game at Spartan Stadium could decide last place in the division.
* * *
Up next: the American Athletic Conference and independent programs.
Tons of credit for stats go to S&P+ creator and SB Nation writer Bill Connelly, whose advanced statistical profiles are invaluable for their detail. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.