Today, we wrap up the mid-major conferences with the AAC, and then we cover the six independents.
American Athletic Conference
West
Predicted standings:
1. Memphis
2. Houston
3. SMU
4. Navy
5. Tulane
6. Tulsa
Though they play in the American's deeper division, the Memphis Tigers don't have to worry too much about repeating as West champions.
Last year's team had one of the best offenses in the country. Though we often think of Memphis as a team reliant on the passing game – which they certainly are – they were actually very able to beat opponents on the ground too. Each sophomores last season, Patrick Taylor, Jr. and Darrell Henderson averaged 5.5 and 8.9 (!) yards per carry, respectively; as a team, the Tigers ranked ninth by that statistic. With just one starting O-lineman gone, this offense should be just as good running the ball.
The Tigers' vaunted pass game is likely to get worse after losing starting QB Riley Ferguson and consensus All-American receiver Anthony Miller. Their second-best receiver, Phil Mayhue, is also gone. Those are major subtractions.
But it's easy to convince yourself the air attack won't fall too far. Taylor and Henderson both received plenty of targets out of the backfield. Tony Pollard, who shuffled between tailback and wideout, finished with the second-most catches on the team and is also still around. In fact, other than Miller and Mayhue, everyone with 10 or more targets last season is back. That's a deep receiving corps.
The success of a quarterback transition is always a little harder to predict. Arizona State grad transfer Brady White and redshirt sophomore David Moore are the candidates to replace Riley Ferguson. White, a four-star prospect out of high school whom head coach Mike Norvell recruited while offensive coordinator at ASU, has some pedigree and probably some ability. Moore was a three-star prospect and served as Ferguson's backup last year.
You can convince yourself into quarterback being uncertain almost as much as you can that it's in good shape. I'm willing to bet the position will be good enough to win with, considering the supporting cast.
On defense, Memphis needs to replace the best member of their front, linebacker and end Genard Avery, and arguably their best defensive back, free safety Jonathan Cook. The rest of the defense is back – and, vitally, healthy. Fourteen players started at seven positions last season, which hurt the team then but could pay off now that lots of underclassmen now have game experience.
That might not even mean an average defense, but you don't need an average defense to win with such a great offense. As long as that unit is passable, Memphis is the favorite in the AAC West.
The team with the best chance to knock off Memphis is Houston, whose first season under Major Applewhite was underwhelming but acceptable. For the most part, they beat whom they should have and remained competitive even in losses. (The lone odd moment was a 28-point loss to an otherwise decrepit Tulsa team. Excluding sack yardage, Tulsa put up for 5.7 yards per carry. Two players ran for more than 100 yards. That'll do it.) It only meant a second-place finish in the division, but it was an okay year – nothing more, nothing less.
Of course, Houston has expectations. At the beginning of the decade, Tony Levine was fired following third and fourth seasons of 8-5 and 7-5. The university president said when Applewhite was hired (albeit jokingly) that the school will "fire coaches at 8-4." Consistently having okay seasons isn't good enough. Surely Applewhite will be given time, and the Cougars' floor is such that he shouldn't dip below seven wins often, but maybe the pressure will increase a little if UH can't win at least come a little closer to the division title.
The biggest questions are on offense. Junior D'Eriq King, after being given the No. 1 job late last season, now has a full year to start under center. In his brief time in the role, he impressed: 65-percent completion rate, seven touchdowns to one interception, and 9.1 yards per attempt; plus 6.6 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns. That's a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, which is a mighty fine weapon to have.
What's difficult is that the top returning receiver on the team is King himself, who was used as an occasional wideout and wildcat quarterback before taking over QB full-time. Other than King, only four players on the roster received even one target last season, and one was a running back. Houston signed seven wide receivers and three tight ends over the past two offseasons, and a bunch of them might have to see the field in 2018.
The best option at running back is Mulbah Car, a junior who averaged a respectable 4.9 yards per carry as backup to the since-departed Duke Catalon. It doesn't look like there's much upside here, nor is does there appear to be depth: Davion Mitchell and Patrick Carr combined for 18 carries last season. Kevrin Justice and Josh Burrell combined for 46 the season before but zero last season. DeSoto product Kelan Walker may figure into things as a true freshman. None of these guys are proven.
King's talent and the line's experience provide a good foundation, but it could be hard to compensate for the dearth of proven skill players.
The news is better on defense, where the Cougars survive a handful of significant graduations through transfers. The line lost Reggie Chevis and Nick Thurman; in steps former TCU Horned Frog Isaiah Chambers. The linbackers lost leading tacklers D'Juan Hines and Matthew Adams; step right up, former Miami Hurricane Darrion Owens. The secondary lost safeties Terrell Williams and Khalil Williams; from an Arizona junior college the Cougars get Gleson Sprewell, and from Ole Miss they get Deontay Anderson, the second-best safety of the 2016 recruiting class and likely the biggest addition of all.
The best news, of course, is that Ed Oliver is alive and sacking. In his first two seasons at UH, Oliver totaled 39 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, and five forced fumbles, somehow adding on 12 pass breakups on top of that. His freshman year was the better of the two, but he remains a force in the middle of the Houston defense around whom opponents always must plan.
If you believe the new additions can immediately contribute, you can defensibly argue that the Houston defense will improve upon their 2017 performance and maybe move closer to the top third of FBS. If you value continuity a little more, I think you have to agree that any dip in performance will likely be slight.
Houston's strong defense and the established parts of their offense make the Cougars better than anyone in the West not named Memphis. If the shakier parts of the offense do better than I'm willing to trust they can, the Cougars will challenge the Tigers. I just think second place seems most likely.
Last year's team had one of the best offenses in the country. Though we often think of Memphis as a team reliant on the passing game – which they certainly are – they were actually very able to beat opponents on the ground too. Each sophomores last season, Patrick Taylor, Jr. and Darrell Henderson averaged 5.5 and 8.9 (!) yards per carry, respectively; as a team, the Tigers ranked ninth by that statistic. With just one starting O-lineman gone, this offense should be just as good running the ball.
The Tigers' vaunted pass game is likely to get worse after losing starting QB Riley Ferguson and consensus All-American receiver Anthony Miller. Their second-best receiver, Phil Mayhue, is also gone. Those are major subtractions.
But it's easy to convince yourself the air attack won't fall too far. Taylor and Henderson both received plenty of targets out of the backfield. Tony Pollard, who shuffled between tailback and wideout, finished with the second-most catches on the team and is also still around. In fact, other than Miller and Mayhue, everyone with 10 or more targets last season is back. That's a deep receiving corps.
The success of a quarterback transition is always a little harder to predict. Arizona State grad transfer Brady White and redshirt sophomore David Moore are the candidates to replace Riley Ferguson. White, a four-star prospect out of high school whom head coach Mike Norvell recruited while offensive coordinator at ASU, has some pedigree and probably some ability. Moore was a three-star prospect and served as Ferguson's backup last year.
You can convince yourself into quarterback being uncertain almost as much as you can that it's in good shape. I'm willing to bet the position will be good enough to win with, considering the supporting cast.
On defense, Memphis needs to replace the best member of their front, linebacker and end Genard Avery, and arguably their best defensive back, free safety Jonathan Cook. The rest of the defense is back – and, vitally, healthy. Fourteen players started at seven positions last season, which hurt the team then but could pay off now that lots of underclassmen now have game experience.
That might not even mean an average defense, but you don't need an average defense to win with such a great offense. As long as that unit is passable, Memphis is the favorite in the AAC West.
The team with the best chance to knock off Memphis is Houston, whose first season under Major Applewhite was underwhelming but acceptable. For the most part, they beat whom they should have and remained competitive even in losses. (The lone odd moment was a 28-point loss to an otherwise decrepit Tulsa team. Excluding sack yardage, Tulsa put up for 5.7 yards per carry. Two players ran for more than 100 yards. That'll do it.) It only meant a second-place finish in the division, but it was an okay year – nothing more, nothing less.
Of course, Houston has expectations. At the beginning of the decade, Tony Levine was fired following third and fourth seasons of 8-5 and 7-5. The university president said when Applewhite was hired (albeit jokingly) that the school will "fire coaches at 8-4." Consistently having okay seasons isn't good enough. Surely Applewhite will be given time, and the Cougars' floor is such that he shouldn't dip below seven wins often, but maybe the pressure will increase a little if UH can't win at least come a little closer to the division title.
The biggest questions are on offense. Junior D'Eriq King, after being given the No. 1 job late last season, now has a full year to start under center. In his brief time in the role, he impressed: 65-percent completion rate, seven touchdowns to one interception, and 9.1 yards per attempt; plus 6.6 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns. That's a legitimate dual-threat quarterback, which is a mighty fine weapon to have.
What's difficult is that the top returning receiver on the team is King himself, who was used as an occasional wideout and wildcat quarterback before taking over QB full-time. Other than King, only four players on the roster received even one target last season, and one was a running back. Houston signed seven wide receivers and three tight ends over the past two offseasons, and a bunch of them might have to see the field in 2018.
The best option at running back is Mulbah Car, a junior who averaged a respectable 4.9 yards per carry as backup to the since-departed Duke Catalon. It doesn't look like there's much upside here, nor is does there appear to be depth: Davion Mitchell and Patrick Carr combined for 18 carries last season. Kevrin Justice and Josh Burrell combined for 46 the season before but zero last season. DeSoto product Kelan Walker may figure into things as a true freshman. None of these guys are proven.
King's talent and the line's experience provide a good foundation, but it could be hard to compensate for the dearth of proven skill players.
The news is better on defense, where the Cougars survive a handful of significant graduations through transfers. The line lost Reggie Chevis and Nick Thurman; in steps former TCU Horned Frog Isaiah Chambers. The linbackers lost leading tacklers D'Juan Hines and Matthew Adams; step right up, former Miami Hurricane Darrion Owens. The secondary lost safeties Terrell Williams and Khalil Williams; from an Arizona junior college the Cougars get Gleson Sprewell, and from Ole Miss they get Deontay Anderson, the second-best safety of the 2016 recruiting class and likely the biggest addition of all.
The best news, of course, is that Ed Oliver is alive and sacking. In his first two seasons at UH, Oliver totaled 39 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks, and five forced fumbles, somehow adding on 12 pass breakups on top of that. His freshman year was the better of the two, but he remains a force in the middle of the Houston defense around whom opponents always must plan.
If you believe the new additions can immediately contribute, you can defensibly argue that the Houston defense will improve upon their 2017 performance and maybe move closer to the top third of FBS. If you value continuity a little more, I think you have to agree that any dip in performance will likely be slight.
Houston's strong defense and the established parts of their offense make the Cougars better than anyone in the West not named Memphis. If the shakier parts of the offense do better than I'm willing to trust they can, the Cougars will challenge the Tigers. I just think second place seems most likely.
Is there any newly hired coach who comes into a better situation than Sonny Dykes does at SMU? Chad Morris may have left before he could see his project in Dallas truly flourish, but while in Dallas, he laid an excellent foundation and dramatically improved a program that was basically destitute after the abrupt and catastrophic end to the June Jones era. All Dykes has to do is win with what was left for him and maintain a respectable program. This should be a lot easier for him in his home state than it was in Berkeley.
Now, the Mustangs aren't quite "there" yet. What they have right now is an excellent offense and a young defense. The former is likely to be a little weaker after losing star receivers Trey Quinn and Courtland Sutton to the NFL, but there are still plenty of players left over from the attack that ranked 20th in the country in yards per play.
The defense is still a work in progress. New coordinator Kevin Kane has a lot of underclassmen on his two deep, though many saw the field last year. Just a handful of regulars graduated – and I would only argue one, 9.5-sack end Justin Lawler, was that important – which means improvement is very possible. I don't expect considerable improvement right now, but it'll be enough for a solid season in 2018 and a potentially great one in 2019. (Just extend the Mustangs a little sympathy when they get hammered by Michigan and UCF.)
It's usually a smart move to just trust Navy. Since the turn of the century, the Midshipmen have been consistently good and occasionally great. One sub-.500 season out of 15 earns a program much more benefit of the doubt than others get, especially when that program experiences turnover as consistently as Navy does.
But last year's team was pretty unextraordinary, going 2-6 to finish the season and playing a lot of close games against merely decent (or sometimes worse) opponents. It's not that I don't trust Navy – again, the smart move is to trust them – so much as it is that it's easier to dock them in a tight division race when the last time we saw them, they were unremarkable. Playing SMU and Tulane on the road, and drawing Cincinnati, Temple, and Central Florida from the East, might be enough for them to slide a little.
One of these years, Willie Fritz will start winning at Tulane. His Green Wave almost made a bowl last season, and they played a lot of competitive games. Fritz heads a program on the rise.
But 2018 is probably not that year – less because of Tulane's talent level than because of a really hard schedule. By FPI, they're favored in five games, and only against Nicholls State and East Carolina are they more than slight favorites. S&P+ picks the Green Wave to win just those two games and gives them exactly 50-50 odds at Tulsa. Even if much of the schedule is full of relative toss-ups, it's hard to have much confidence in a team who needs to win a lot of those toss-ups just to make bowl eligibility.
As for that talent: There's a lot more of it on offense. Quarterback Jonathan Banks and running back Darius Bradwell make a good backfield pairing, and Banks gets back most of his receivers and (more important for a run-heavy Fritz team) linemen.
An already shaky defense now in transition, however, puts a definite ceiling on the team's improvement. With some luck, the Green Wave's record can show the progress they're making.
After a solid first couple seasons of big offense under Phillip Montgomery, Tulsa fell apart. The Golden Hurricane, ravaged by turnover, fielded a young and horribly unequipped roster that couldn't throw on offense (a bad thing for a pass-heavy team) and was horrendous at everything on defense.
Now, the Mustangs aren't quite "there" yet. What they have right now is an excellent offense and a young defense. The former is likely to be a little weaker after losing star receivers Trey Quinn and Courtland Sutton to the NFL, but there are still plenty of players left over from the attack that ranked 20th in the country in yards per play.
The defense is still a work in progress. New coordinator Kevin Kane has a lot of underclassmen on his two deep, though many saw the field last year. Just a handful of regulars graduated – and I would only argue one, 9.5-sack end Justin Lawler, was that important – which means improvement is very possible. I don't expect considerable improvement right now, but it'll be enough for a solid season in 2018 and a potentially great one in 2019. (Just extend the Mustangs a little sympathy when they get hammered by Michigan and UCF.)
It's usually a smart move to just trust Navy. Since the turn of the century, the Midshipmen have been consistently good and occasionally great. One sub-.500 season out of 15 earns a program much more benefit of the doubt than others get, especially when that program experiences turnover as consistently as Navy does.
But last year's team was pretty unextraordinary, going 2-6 to finish the season and playing a lot of close games against merely decent (or sometimes worse) opponents. It's not that I don't trust Navy – again, the smart move is to trust them – so much as it is that it's easier to dock them in a tight division race when the last time we saw them, they were unremarkable. Playing SMU and Tulane on the road, and drawing Cincinnati, Temple, and Central Florida from the East, might be enough for them to slide a little.
One of these years, Willie Fritz will start winning at Tulane. His Green Wave almost made a bowl last season, and they played a lot of competitive games. Fritz heads a program on the rise.
But 2018 is probably not that year – less because of Tulane's talent level than because of a really hard schedule. By FPI, they're favored in five games, and only against Nicholls State and East Carolina are they more than slight favorites. S&P+ picks the Green Wave to win just those two games and gives them exactly 50-50 odds at Tulsa. Even if much of the schedule is full of relative toss-ups, it's hard to have much confidence in a team who needs to win a lot of those toss-ups just to make bowl eligibility.
As for that talent: There's a lot more of it on offense. Quarterback Jonathan Banks and running back Darius Bradwell make a good backfield pairing, and Banks gets back most of his receivers and (more important for a run-heavy Fritz team) linemen.
An already shaky defense now in transition, however, puts a definite ceiling on the team's improvement. With some luck, the Green Wave's record can show the progress they're making.
After a solid first couple seasons of big offense under Phillip Montgomery, Tulsa fell apart. The Golden Hurricane, ravaged by turnover, fielded a young and horribly unequipped roster that couldn't throw on offense (a bad thing for a pass-heavy team) and was horrendous at everything on defense.
Tulsa isn't as bad this year, with that previously young roster now an experienced one. But in a potentially stacked division, somebody has to finish last. And the team that went 2-10 a year ago is the most obvious pick.
East
Predicted standings:
1. UCF (conference champions)
2. USF
3. Temple
4. Cincinnati
5. Connecticut
6. East Carolina
It is with little doubt – and less originality – that I proclaim UCF the favorites in the American Athletic Conference. Yes, the reigning Peach Bowl champions lose offensive stars Tre'Quan Smith, Jordan Akins, and Aaron Evans; yes, they lose defensive leaders Shaquem Griffin, Mike Hughes, and Chequan Burkett; and yes, they lose Scott Frost and their other coaches. But they keep so much else.
Let's start with that offense. AAC Offensive Player of the Year McKenzie Milton, one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in America, is back. Much of Milton's receivers last season were underclassmen. Adrian Killins, Jr., who averaged 6.4 yards per carry, is back, and so are three of his five starting blockers. Considering nobody scored more points per game, and only Oklahoma averaged more yards per play than the Knights last year, returning almost everyone just about guarantees this offense will be one of the best in the country.
The UCF defense is not as convincing, but it's in pretty good shape. While five starters are gone, most regulars are back. Though none of the returning linebackers have shown they are as good as Griffin (even leading tackler Pat Jasinski), there are plenty of options at the position. The secondary is full of options to make up for losing Hughes. Alabama transfer Aaron Robinson should fill a corner slot with incumbents Brandon Moore and Nevelle Clarke. Tre Neal and Kyle Gibson will do at safety, and sophomore backups Antwan Collier and Richie Grant got enough playing time to be serviceable in their stead.
I feel least confident in the line, having lost two starters and not boasting many players who made much of a statistical impact, but there's plenty of size. Starting nose guard junior Trysten Hill checks in at 330 pounds. End Joey Connors is 313 pounds. Aaron Cochran, Brendon Hayes, and A.J. Wooten, who saw the field a little last year, are 301, 293, and 285 pounds, respectively. The Knights have freshmen listed at 270, 275, 290, and 350 pounds. It may take a bulldozer to move this three-man front. Size doesn't always translate into production, of course, but along with the seeming competence of the other position groups, it makes me think UCF is fine here.
A fine defense is all the Knights need to repeat as conference champions. If they can handle potentially rebounding UNC and Pitt, outlast an explosive FAU, and once again run the table in AAC play, UCF will at least guarantee themselves another New Years bowl. If the Playoff Committee ever gives mid-majors a fair shot, they might have a chance at something even greater.
USF had one of the most prolific offenses in college football in 2018, helmed by electric quarterback Quentin Flowers (1,181 non-sack rushing yards and 2,911 passing yards last year), who often linked up with deep-threat wideout Marquez Valdez-Scantling (53 catches for 879 yards). The Bulls also had a pretty strong defense as well, led by linebacker Auggie Sanchez (65.0 tackles); D-linemen Bruce Hector, Mike Love, and Deadrin Senat, (34.5 total TFLs); and corner Deatrick Nichols (12 pass breakups and three interceptions).
Those seven are all gone now. So are other regulars. For the Bulls to keep their usual place in the division race, they need a lot out of the players that remain.
A few players may replace Flowers at quarterback. Brett Kean and Chris Oladokun were the backups last year, and former Alabama starter and Arizona State second-stringer Blake Barnett arrives as a graduate transfer. Barnett obviously has the most in-game experience of the three; the other two have the benefit of already seeing a year under Charlie Strong and offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert.
The winner of the job will have players to whom to throw, as four receivers who received 10 or more targets last season are back for 2018. Tyre McCants did the most of any receiver on the team with the ball in his hands, averaging 19.1 yards per catch and scoring seven touchdowns, both team bests. He and junior Darnell Solomon will be two effective starting wideouts. We just don't know if the position has enough depth to sustain an injury or two despite Strong's... well, strong recruiting.
After Marlon Mack left early for the NFL in 2017, the Bulls' run game became a lot worse even while keeping Flowers. Flowers, D'Ernest Johnson, and Darius Tice graduating means the top three rushers on the team are gone, so it could get worse. Still: The O-line is relatively seasoned, and Florida transfer Jordan Cronkite brings experience of his own, so maybe it doesn't. This rushing attack could be reliable but will surely be less dynamic.
Fewer – but more than zero – questions exist on defense, where a lot of regulars are back.
The linemen and linebackers, like the receiving corps, must replace important players but have plenty of players with which to do so. The four departures mentioned earlier (Sanchez, Hector, Love, and Senat) leave major holes, but the Bulls can throw bodies at the problem. Eleven players at front-seven positions got six or more tackles last season, and two transfers and 10 freshmen provide reinforcements. If you want a playmaker: Greg Reaves led USF in tackles for loss.
The secondary, in addition to Nichols, loses safety Devin Abraham, first on the team in interceptions and a capable tackler. But the Bulls have both good replacements and adequate depth. Corners Ronnie Hoggins and Mazzi Wilkins combined for 17 pass breakups and five picks last season. Six more defensive backs got reps, which isn't as much as the backups elsewhere got, but it's enough to count as decent experience.
For most of their roster, the Bulls' two-deep looks good enough to trust, if not good enough to inspire unshakable confidence. The missing star power keeps USF well behind their Orlando rivals and may push the Bulls as far as third place, but 2018 should be about as respectable a potential reset year as you can get.
Not far behind USF is Temple, who took a step back under first-year coach Geoff Collins but still managed to make (and win) a bowl.
What's on Collins' side this season is continuity: Not just in coaching staffs, but in personnel.
Frank Nutile became the starting quarterback late in the season, and the Owls' passing attack got much better. His completion rate, sack rate, and touchdown-to-interception ratio were all better than those of the since-transferred Logan Marchi, Temple's starter for most of the year. Nutile is now a senior and has plenty of familiar hands to which to throw, even if the team's joint-leaders in touchdown catches (Adonis Jennings and Keith Kirkwood) graduated.
Injuries on the line killed the ground game last season. It's unlikely such misfortune will befall them again, and if it somehow does, many of the linemen forced into action are still around, but with experience this time. Maybe Temple's offense won't become good at running the ball, but it won't be as bad, which is a good starting point.
The defense, Temple's strength throughout Matt Rhule's tenure, should remain good, but not quite elite like it has been in the past. Last year's defense slipped from 22nd to 66th in yards per carry allowed and from 12th to 64th in yards per pass attempt.
With major departures along the line and in the backfield, the Owls' pass rush and secondary need new playmakers to emerge – which they very well might. As a freshman, Quincy Roche racked up seven sacks. The linebacker group looks stacked, with four coming back who made four or more tackles for loss, and another who forced two fumbles. There are enough disruptive players up front to maintain a good rush.
In the secondary, things look less sure. Safety Delvon Randall (71.0 tackles and four interceptions – both best on the team) and corner Linwood Crump (six pass breakups) are the two most proven playmakers. Presbyterian graduate transfer Rock Ya-Sin (five interceptions, eight pass breakups) should hold down the other corner spot.
Other proven DBs, however, are harder to find. Benny Walls forced a couple fumbles and broke up a pass in spot-duty at safety, and senior safety Jyquis Thomas saw a bit of action last year. The rest looks pretty green, and it's hard to trust that little depth. It probably won't kill the Owls unless a couple starters get hurt, but that's always one play away from happening.
This transition on defense makes me think Temple is more likely to repeat their third-place finish from a year ago than improve upon it, but they could definitely leapfrog USF.
Luke Fickell's first two Cincinnati recruiting classes have ranked third and first in the American. There's little doubt he'll eventually have the talent to compete at the top of the conference. Right now though, the Bearcats are still figuring things out and will likely only be good enough to stay above the dreck at the East's bottom.
It will be hard for Cincinnati to do much offensively. Through the air, the Bearcats were dreadful a year ago, averaging the 10th-fewest yards per pass attempt in FBS. The starting quarterback and a good chunk of the receiving corps return, and four-star tight end Leonard Taylor could help immediately. But I'll bet the passing attack is mostly bad again.
The ground game will surely be worse too: Six offensive linemen combined to start every game, and five graduated. Though tailbacks Gerrid Doaks and Michael Warren II were each solid, and quarterback Hayden Moore was a capable scrambler, I don't trust any rushing attack that doesn't have proven blockers.
Fortunately, the defense can definitely improve. While they lost top-of-the-depth-chart talent, the Bearcats played their backups enough that the handful of losses they suffered won't burn them too much. There are plenty of at least somewhat experienced players, which should mean a high floor if nothing else.
Don't expect Cincinnati to do much now. Fickell will have them competitive soon enough though.
The good news for UConn is that their offense should be a little better in 2018. Apart from quarterback, every position group last year was mostly made up of players who will be back for this season, and many of those players were freshmen. David Pindell, last year's backup, was a horrible passer and an okay runner in limited duty; maybe over the offseason, he improved a bit.
The bad news for UConn is that whatever improvement happens on offense likely won't matter, as an already bad defense is unlikely to get any better. Freshmen and sophomores got plenty of snaps in the secondary last season, but most of the regulars in the first and second levels were seniors. This may end up the worst run defense in the country. Hopefully for the Huskies, giving their young guys so much playing time will make for something a little better in the future.
East Carolina took a gamble in firing Ruffin McNeill after the 2015 season, and now they sit near the bottom of FBS. Scottie Montgomery's first two seasons at ECU were 3-9 disasters, and it's hard to foresee his third being any better.
Significant turnover is unlikely to improve what became the country's worst defense last season; the Pirates allowed 7.7 yards per play. Even more turnover on offense will prevent the team from even kind of keeping pace in shootouts. If Montgomery keeps his job beyond 2018, I would be surprised.
Let's start with that offense. AAC Offensive Player of the Year McKenzie Milton, one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in America, is back. Much of Milton's receivers last season were underclassmen. Adrian Killins, Jr., who averaged 6.4 yards per carry, is back, and so are three of his five starting blockers. Considering nobody scored more points per game, and only Oklahoma averaged more yards per play than the Knights last year, returning almost everyone just about guarantees this offense will be one of the best in the country.
The UCF defense is not as convincing, but it's in pretty good shape. While five starters are gone, most regulars are back. Though none of the returning linebackers have shown they are as good as Griffin (even leading tackler Pat Jasinski), there are plenty of options at the position. The secondary is full of options to make up for losing Hughes. Alabama transfer Aaron Robinson should fill a corner slot with incumbents Brandon Moore and Nevelle Clarke. Tre Neal and Kyle Gibson will do at safety, and sophomore backups Antwan Collier and Richie Grant got enough playing time to be serviceable in their stead.
I feel least confident in the line, having lost two starters and not boasting many players who made much of a statistical impact, but there's plenty of size. Starting nose guard junior Trysten Hill checks in at 330 pounds. End Joey Connors is 313 pounds. Aaron Cochran, Brendon Hayes, and A.J. Wooten, who saw the field a little last year, are 301, 293, and 285 pounds, respectively. The Knights have freshmen listed at 270, 275, 290, and 350 pounds. It may take a bulldozer to move this three-man front. Size doesn't always translate into production, of course, but along with the seeming competence of the other position groups, it makes me think UCF is fine here.
A fine defense is all the Knights need to repeat as conference champions. If they can handle potentially rebounding UNC and Pitt, outlast an explosive FAU, and once again run the table in AAC play, UCF will at least guarantee themselves another New Years bowl. If the Playoff Committee ever gives mid-majors a fair shot, they might have a chance at something even greater.
USF had one of the most prolific offenses in college football in 2018, helmed by electric quarterback Quentin Flowers (1,181 non-sack rushing yards and 2,911 passing yards last year), who often linked up with deep-threat wideout Marquez Valdez-Scantling (53 catches for 879 yards). The Bulls also had a pretty strong defense as well, led by linebacker Auggie Sanchez (65.0 tackles); D-linemen Bruce Hector, Mike Love, and Deadrin Senat, (34.5 total TFLs); and corner Deatrick Nichols (12 pass breakups and three interceptions).
Those seven are all gone now. So are other regulars. For the Bulls to keep their usual place in the division race, they need a lot out of the players that remain.
A few players may replace Flowers at quarterback. Brett Kean and Chris Oladokun were the backups last year, and former Alabama starter and Arizona State second-stringer Blake Barnett arrives as a graduate transfer. Barnett obviously has the most in-game experience of the three; the other two have the benefit of already seeing a year under Charlie Strong and offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert.
The winner of the job will have players to whom to throw, as four receivers who received 10 or more targets last season are back for 2018. Tyre McCants did the most of any receiver on the team with the ball in his hands, averaging 19.1 yards per catch and scoring seven touchdowns, both team bests. He and junior Darnell Solomon will be two effective starting wideouts. We just don't know if the position has enough depth to sustain an injury or two despite Strong's... well, strong recruiting.
After Marlon Mack left early for the NFL in 2017, the Bulls' run game became a lot worse even while keeping Flowers. Flowers, D'Ernest Johnson, and Darius Tice graduating means the top three rushers on the team are gone, so it could get worse. Still: The O-line is relatively seasoned, and Florida transfer Jordan Cronkite brings experience of his own, so maybe it doesn't. This rushing attack could be reliable but will surely be less dynamic.
Fewer – but more than zero – questions exist on defense, where a lot of regulars are back.
The linemen and linebackers, like the receiving corps, must replace important players but have plenty of players with which to do so. The four departures mentioned earlier (Sanchez, Hector, Love, and Senat) leave major holes, but the Bulls can throw bodies at the problem. Eleven players at front-seven positions got six or more tackles last season, and two transfers and 10 freshmen provide reinforcements. If you want a playmaker: Greg Reaves led USF in tackles for loss.
The secondary, in addition to Nichols, loses safety Devin Abraham, first on the team in interceptions and a capable tackler. But the Bulls have both good replacements and adequate depth. Corners Ronnie Hoggins and Mazzi Wilkins combined for 17 pass breakups and five picks last season. Six more defensive backs got reps, which isn't as much as the backups elsewhere got, but it's enough to count as decent experience.
For most of their roster, the Bulls' two-deep looks good enough to trust, if not good enough to inspire unshakable confidence. The missing star power keeps USF well behind their Orlando rivals and may push the Bulls as far as third place, but 2018 should be about as respectable a potential reset year as you can get.
Not far behind USF is Temple, who took a step back under first-year coach Geoff Collins but still managed to make (and win) a bowl.
What's on Collins' side this season is continuity: Not just in coaching staffs, but in personnel.
Frank Nutile became the starting quarterback late in the season, and the Owls' passing attack got much better. His completion rate, sack rate, and touchdown-to-interception ratio were all better than those of the since-transferred Logan Marchi, Temple's starter for most of the year. Nutile is now a senior and has plenty of familiar hands to which to throw, even if the team's joint-leaders in touchdown catches (Adonis Jennings and Keith Kirkwood) graduated.
Injuries on the line killed the ground game last season. It's unlikely such misfortune will befall them again, and if it somehow does, many of the linemen forced into action are still around, but with experience this time. Maybe Temple's offense won't become good at running the ball, but it won't be as bad, which is a good starting point.
The defense, Temple's strength throughout Matt Rhule's tenure, should remain good, but not quite elite like it has been in the past. Last year's defense slipped from 22nd to 66th in yards per carry allowed and from 12th to 64th in yards per pass attempt.
With major departures along the line and in the backfield, the Owls' pass rush and secondary need new playmakers to emerge – which they very well might. As a freshman, Quincy Roche racked up seven sacks. The linebacker group looks stacked, with four coming back who made four or more tackles for loss, and another who forced two fumbles. There are enough disruptive players up front to maintain a good rush.
In the secondary, things look less sure. Safety Delvon Randall (71.0 tackles and four interceptions – both best on the team) and corner Linwood Crump (six pass breakups) are the two most proven playmakers. Presbyterian graduate transfer Rock Ya-Sin (five interceptions, eight pass breakups) should hold down the other corner spot.
Other proven DBs, however, are harder to find. Benny Walls forced a couple fumbles and broke up a pass in spot-duty at safety, and senior safety Jyquis Thomas saw a bit of action last year. The rest looks pretty green, and it's hard to trust that little depth. It probably won't kill the Owls unless a couple starters get hurt, but that's always one play away from happening.
This transition on defense makes me think Temple is more likely to repeat their third-place finish from a year ago than improve upon it, but they could definitely leapfrog USF.
Luke Fickell's first two Cincinnati recruiting classes have ranked third and first in the American. There's little doubt he'll eventually have the talent to compete at the top of the conference. Right now though, the Bearcats are still figuring things out and will likely only be good enough to stay above the dreck at the East's bottom.
It will be hard for Cincinnati to do much offensively. Through the air, the Bearcats were dreadful a year ago, averaging the 10th-fewest yards per pass attempt in FBS. The starting quarterback and a good chunk of the receiving corps return, and four-star tight end Leonard Taylor could help immediately. But I'll bet the passing attack is mostly bad again.
The ground game will surely be worse too: Six offensive linemen combined to start every game, and five graduated. Though tailbacks Gerrid Doaks and Michael Warren II were each solid, and quarterback Hayden Moore was a capable scrambler, I don't trust any rushing attack that doesn't have proven blockers.
Fortunately, the defense can definitely improve. While they lost top-of-the-depth-chart talent, the Bearcats played their backups enough that the handful of losses they suffered won't burn them too much. There are plenty of at least somewhat experienced players, which should mean a high floor if nothing else.
Don't expect Cincinnati to do much now. Fickell will have them competitive soon enough though.
The good news for UConn is that their offense should be a little better in 2018. Apart from quarterback, every position group last year was mostly made up of players who will be back for this season, and many of those players were freshmen. David Pindell, last year's backup, was a horrible passer and an okay runner in limited duty; maybe over the offseason, he improved a bit.
The bad news for UConn is that whatever improvement happens on offense likely won't matter, as an already bad defense is unlikely to get any better. Freshmen and sophomores got plenty of snaps in the secondary last season, but most of the regulars in the first and second levels were seniors. This may end up the worst run defense in the country. Hopefully for the Huskies, giving their young guys so much playing time will make for something a little better in the future.
East Carolina took a gamble in firing Ruffin McNeill after the 2015 season, and now they sit near the bottom of FBS. Scottie Montgomery's first two seasons at ECU were 3-9 disasters, and it's hard to foresee his third being any better.
Significant turnover is unlikely to improve what became the country's worst defense last season; the Pirates allowed 7.7 yards per play. Even more turnover on offense will prevent the team from even kind of keeping pace in shootouts. If Montgomery keeps his job beyond 2018, I would be surprised.
Independents
It's been pointed out a lot that Army never throws the ball, but it should be reinforced just how little they throw the ball. The Black Knights finished last in FBS in pass attempts with 65, which was 37 behind 129th-ranked Navy. Minnesota, who threw the ball the least of any non-triple option team, threw 232 passes – more than 3.5 times the number that Army did.
Now, when they threw, they often weren't very good at it. That's what happens when you hardly practice something. Georgia Tech was the only other team in the country with a completion percentage in the 30s, and even they "trailed" last-place Army's 30.8 percent by 5.3 points. (That's the distance between 11th-ranked Oregon and 51st-ranked Marshall.)
Of course, when passing worked, it was deadly: Their 18.1 yards per completion mark wasn't best in the country, but it surpassed those of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and plenty of other teams whose offenses were built around the forward pass. That's what happens when your opponent doesn't expect you to do something because you hardly practice it.
Why do I go over this? Mainly just because I find it really fun. It doesn't reveal a lot about the 2018 Black Knights other than that they basically have no interest in throwing, which you knew already.
That offense loses a reliable quarterback in Ahmad Bradshaw and a handful of experienced linemen, which are major blows for most teams but a little easier to manage at West Point because all service academies have to rely on upperclassmen and survive despite extreme turnover. Seven of eight running backs who received carries last season return too. This will be more of a dip than a nosedive.
Now, when they threw, they often weren't very good at it. That's what happens when you hardly practice something. Georgia Tech was the only other team in the country with a completion percentage in the 30s, and even they "trailed" last-place Army's 30.8 percent by 5.3 points. (That's the distance between 11th-ranked Oregon and 51st-ranked Marshall.)
Of course, when passing worked, it was deadly: Their 18.1 yards per completion mark wasn't best in the country, but it surpassed those of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and plenty of other teams whose offenses were built around the forward pass. That's what happens when your opponent doesn't expect you to do something because you hardly practice it.
Why do I go over this? Mainly just because I find it really fun. It doesn't reveal a lot about the 2018 Black Knights other than that they basically have no interest in throwing, which you knew already.
That offense loses a reliable quarterback in Ahmad Bradshaw and a handful of experienced linemen, which are major blows for most teams but a little easier to manage at West Point because all service academies have to rely on upperclassmen and survive despite extreme turnover. Seven of eight running backs who received carries last season return too. This will be more of a dip than a nosedive.
There was less ability on defense last year, but there's a lot more experience this year. The secondary gets back all but one member of the two-deep. The linebackers get back three of four starters, including the team's top two tacklers. Just one starter is gone from the three-man line. With that much continuity, there's bound to be improvement.
Winning 10 games last season was a tremendous accomplishment, especially with the bonus of beating Navy for the second straight time. Army might do it again; apart from games at Oklahoma and Duke, I can easily see the Black Knights winning every game on their schedule. It looks like Jeff Monken is building something sustainable.
BYU's defense under Kilani Sitake has held steady in the top half of FBS, roughly the same spot it was when Bronco Mendenhall abruptly left Provo. This has not been the problem. Most members of last year's unit, which ranked 42nd in yards per play allowed, are back, so it will remain not the problem.
The Cougars' offense has been the problem. At first, it was a minor, understandable disappointment as they fell from 40th in points per game to 62nd from 2015 to 2016. But in 2017, the offense fell to 124th, and the rest of the team fell with it. Offensive coordinator Ty Detmer, previously the hero who won the 1990 Heisman, was quickly jettisoned.
So now Sitake tries to start over with new OC Jeff Grimes. Grimes may have a lot of talent on his hands, considering a lot of his players were at least in the program two years ago, but we kind of have to wait and see.
Pretty much the whole offense does come back at least, with the only major departures being three starting linemen. Squally Canada (just a nickname, but we don't know his actual name) ran for 5.9 yards per carry Tanner Mangum has 21 starts under his belt at quarterback but played poorly last season before rupturing his Achilles, which meant three then-underclassmen saw the field. Joe Critchlow got the greatest opportunity and will have the best chance to usurp Mangum if the senior underperforms early.
For BYU to return to their usual status as a perpetually eight- or nine-win program, they first need their offense to put itself back together. Considering how far it collapsed, that might take a couple years. Just returning to respectability is a reasonable minimum expectation for this season.
The Cougars' offense has been the problem. At first, it was a minor, understandable disappointment as they fell from 40th in points per game to 62nd from 2015 to 2016. But in 2017, the offense fell to 124th, and the rest of the team fell with it. Offensive coordinator Ty Detmer, previously the hero who won the 1990 Heisman, was quickly jettisoned.
So now Sitake tries to start over with new OC Jeff Grimes. Grimes may have a lot of talent on his hands, considering a lot of his players were at least in the program two years ago, but we kind of have to wait and see.
Pretty much the whole offense does come back at least, with the only major departures being three starting linemen. Squally Canada (just a nickname, but we don't know his actual name) ran for 5.9 yards per carry Tanner Mangum has 21 starts under his belt at quarterback but played poorly last season before rupturing his Achilles, which meant three then-underclassmen saw the field. Joe Critchlow got the greatest opportunity and will have the best chance to usurp Mangum if the senior underperforms early.
For BYU to return to their usual status as a perpetually eight- or nine-win program, they first need their offense to put itself back together. Considering how far it collapsed, that might take a couple years. Just returning to respectability is a reasonable minimum expectation for this season.
There's not a member of the entire Football Bowl Subdivision whose presence perplexes me more than that of Liberty. I just want to know... Why are they here? Who asked for this? Who thinks this program can get by scheduling home-and-homes within the season until they (I guess) find a conference? What conference wants an institution so irrelevant in sports – in terms both of ability and brand – and so controversial outside of them?
Clearly, the answer to the last question is "nobody," as nobody has extended Liberty an invitation to their conference. So for now (and probably for a while), the Flames are homeless and trying to make FBS life work. Under Turner Gill, they were an alright FCS program (his record in Lynchburg is 41-29), and playing a lot of crappy teams (including two in FCS) means they have a decent chance at a normally bad FBS debut rather than an abhorrently bad one. How it works long-term is beyond me.
Clearly, the answer to the last question is "nobody," as nobody has extended Liberty an invitation to their conference. So for now (and probably for a while), the Flames are homeless and trying to make FBS life work. Under Turner Gill, they were an alright FCS program (his record in Lynchburg is 41-29), and playing a lot of crappy teams (including two in FCS) means they have a decent chance at a normally bad FBS debut rather than an abhorrently bad one. How it works long-term is beyond me.
Liberty is trying to make themselves a name at the top level, but Massachusetts is just trying to survive. Since getting kicked out of the MAC, the Minutemen have been adrift among the independents and failing to prove – to anyone, but preferably a conference – that they belong.
A 4-8 campaign last season marks the high point of UMass' FBS tenure, and it might actually represent some sign of life. Just two of their losses were by more than 10 points; in four, they were within a possession. Even if some of those defeats were to comparably hapless teams like Hawai'i or Coastal Carolina, the Minutemen managed to not be totally embarrassed against stronger opponents too, like Temple, Ohio, and (arguably, or arguably not) pre-implosion Tennessee. They even beat Appalachian State, a really good team.
With a relatively strong passing attack and a mostly weak schedule, maybe UMass can even reach bowl eligibility. (An optimist might want to ignore a defense facing significant turnover.) I highly doubt that convinces anyone to make UMass a conference-mate, but maybe it creates some fan enthusiasm, and maybe that gives Mark Whipple some kind of foundation for a respectable program. It could also have basically no effect and keep the program in a rut until it recedes back into FCS.
A 4-8 campaign last season marks the high point of UMass' FBS tenure, and it might actually represent some sign of life. Just two of their losses were by more than 10 points; in four, they were within a possession. Even if some of those defeats were to comparably hapless teams like Hawai'i or Coastal Carolina, the Minutemen managed to not be totally embarrassed against stronger opponents too, like Temple, Ohio, and (arguably, or arguably not) pre-implosion Tennessee. They even beat Appalachian State, a really good team.
With a relatively strong passing attack and a mostly weak schedule, maybe UMass can even reach bowl eligibility. (An optimist might want to ignore a defense facing significant turnover.) I highly doubt that convinces anyone to make UMass a conference-mate, but maybe it creates some fan enthusiasm, and maybe that gives Mark Whipple some kind of foundation for a respectable program. It could also have basically no effect and keep the program in a rut until it recedes back into FCS.
While their fellow Sun Belt expats Idaho decided to immediately drop a subdivision, New Mexico State elected to give FBS independence another go. Perhaps the school is just riding the high of their first bowl game (and first bowl win, a rousing overtime victory over Utah State) in 57 years, which is understandable. The Aggies' bowl run was one of the coolest stories of the season, and they deserve to revel.
But that buzz won't last forever, and at some point, they'll miss the security of conference membership. For a program as small as NMSU, independence can't be a long-term solution.
In the meantime, the Aggies will try to string together two consecutive .500-or-better seasons for the first time in 49 years. If they do it, it will be without their leading tackler, linebacker Dalton Herrington, but with plenty of other talented defenders. Linebacker Terrill Hanks was comparable to the departed Herrington, finishing second in tackles, TFLs, and sacks, third in forced fumbles, tied for third in pass breakups, and tied for fourth in interceptions. He and a triplet of disruptive defensive backs – safety Ron LaForce and corners Shamad Lomax and Demarcus Owens, who as a group broke up 20 passes and made nine picks – lead a pretty good defense.
The offense loses its three top playmakers: quarterback Tyler Rogers, receiver Jaleel Scott, and tailback Larry Rose III. Head coach Chuck Martin has reinforced that side of the ball with junior college signees, so the drop-off will be mitigated a little; I would not expect it to be anything special.
The 2018 Aggies are good enough, it appears, to make another bowl run, especially with all the easy opponents on their schedule. (I expect losses versus Wyoming, and at Minnesota and Utah State, but the rest is quite winnable.) Even with their future uncertain, that's something to enjoy for now.
But that buzz won't last forever, and at some point, they'll miss the security of conference membership. For a program as small as NMSU, independence can't be a long-term solution.
In the meantime, the Aggies will try to string together two consecutive .500-or-better seasons for the first time in 49 years. If they do it, it will be without their leading tackler, linebacker Dalton Herrington, but with plenty of other talented defenders. Linebacker Terrill Hanks was comparable to the departed Herrington, finishing second in tackles, TFLs, and sacks, third in forced fumbles, tied for third in pass breakups, and tied for fourth in interceptions. He and a triplet of disruptive defensive backs – safety Ron LaForce and corners Shamad Lomax and Demarcus Owens, who as a group broke up 20 passes and made nine picks – lead a pretty good defense.
The offense loses its three top playmakers: quarterback Tyler Rogers, receiver Jaleel Scott, and tailback Larry Rose III. Head coach Chuck Martin has reinforced that side of the ball with junior college signees, so the drop-off will be mitigated a little; I would not expect it to be anything special.
The 2018 Aggies are good enough, it appears, to make another bowl run, especially with all the easy opponents on their schedule. (I expect losses versus Wyoming, and at Minnesota and Utah State, but the rest is quite winnable.) Even with their future uncertain, that's something to enjoy for now.
Since we somehow need to go over this every season: Notre Dame should not fire Brian Kelly. His 69-34 record is far from perfect, and his personality is far from endearing, but his tenure has been far less disappointing than those of his immediate predecessors (Bob Davie, Ty Willingham, and Charlie Weis). Kelly is a good coach, and the post-Lou Holtz era has shown Notre Dame's floor can be pretty low. After a 10-win season, Kelly doesn't deserve even a warm seat.
With that out of the way: The Irish can match or even improve upon their 2017 campaign, but they've got some big holes to fill on offense. Mike McGlinchey and Quentin Nelson were two of the best linemen in the country; they departed for the NFL. Top-targeted wideout Equanimeous St. Brown, tight end Durham Smythe, and 6.9-yards-per-carry tailback Josh Adams are gone too.
Fortunately, what's still here is promising. Three-fifths of the offensive line return, and so do possession receiver Chase Claypool and potential big-play receiver Miles Boykin. Plus, Notre Dame is never short on former big recruits to fill the skill positions; the Irish signed two four-star receivers this year and two four-star tight ends the year before. Running back Tony Jones, Jr. was a 2016 blue-chipper, and C.J. Holmes was a 2017 blue-chipper. We can't count on either being a proper replacement for Adams, since neither got many carries last season, but we can assume there's some talent at the position.
Though Brandon Wimbush is a much better runner than passer, with this supporting cast, his deficiencies might be alleviated, and the Irish offense might be just as good as before.
The defense, meanwhile, could be outstanding. Last year's unit ranked 47th in rush defense, 17th in pass defense, and 21st overall (using yards per attempt for each).
That's a strong defense, but it's about to get better. By Bill Connelly's returning production stat, 96 percent of the Irish defense is back for 2018. Nine positions return starters, and all return experienced backups. Top tackler Te'Von Coney? Back. Twenty-pass-breakup corner Julian Love? Back. Six-foot-six-inch, 306-pound run stuffer Jerry Tillery? Back.
Pick a playmaker, and he's back. That extreme level of continuity could give Notre Dame one of the elite defenses in the country.
The Irish always have treacherous schedules, and 2018's is no different. Marquee games against brand names like Michigan, Stanford, Florida State, and USC will obviously be hard; and Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Navy, and Northwestern could be tricky too. But Notre Dame has the talent to win all of those games and get into the Playoff. They just need the luck.
With that out of the way: The Irish can match or even improve upon their 2017 campaign, but they've got some big holes to fill on offense. Mike McGlinchey and Quentin Nelson were two of the best linemen in the country; they departed for the NFL. Top-targeted wideout Equanimeous St. Brown, tight end Durham Smythe, and 6.9-yards-per-carry tailback Josh Adams are gone too.
Fortunately, what's still here is promising. Three-fifths of the offensive line return, and so do possession receiver Chase Claypool and potential big-play receiver Miles Boykin. Plus, Notre Dame is never short on former big recruits to fill the skill positions; the Irish signed two four-star receivers this year and two four-star tight ends the year before. Running back Tony Jones, Jr. was a 2016 blue-chipper, and C.J. Holmes was a 2017 blue-chipper. We can't count on either being a proper replacement for Adams, since neither got many carries last season, but we can assume there's some talent at the position.
Though Brandon Wimbush is a much better runner than passer, with this supporting cast, his deficiencies might be alleviated, and the Irish offense might be just as good as before.
The defense, meanwhile, could be outstanding. Last year's unit ranked 47th in rush defense, 17th in pass defense, and 21st overall (using yards per attempt for each).
That's a strong defense, but it's about to get better. By Bill Connelly's returning production stat, 96 percent of the Irish defense is back for 2018. Nine positions return starters, and all return experienced backups. Top tackler Te'Von Coney? Back. Twenty-pass-breakup corner Julian Love? Back. Six-foot-six-inch, 306-pound run stuffer Jerry Tillery? Back.
Pick a playmaker, and he's back. That extreme level of continuity could give Notre Dame one of the elite defenses in the country.
The Irish always have treacherous schedules, and 2018's is no different. Marquee games against brand names like Michigan, Stanford, Florida State, and USC will obviously be hard; and Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Navy, and Northwestern could be tricky too. But Notre Dame has the talent to win all of those games and get into the Playoff. They just need the luck.
* * *
Up next: Pac-12.
Tons of credit for stats go to S&P+ creator and SB Nation writer Bill Connelly, whose advanced statistical profiles are invaluable for their detail. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.