Seven Things I Think I Learned about the Gophers in Their First Three Games

Minnesota has made it to the end of their non-conference schedule in pretty good shape. Setting aside an injury scare at cornerback and a toss-up defeat in the opener, the team has given reason for optimism: competence from transfers, clear steps forward from their young defense, and a few big plays from underclassmen.

September is also the most confusing time to be a college football fan. How much should early results shake us from our priors? Good teams take care of business against bad ones, but can we really expect that to translate when the schedule gets harder? What schematic shifts will we not know about until coaches are in the games that really count? It's the hot take part of the season, where it seems everyone is wildly overconfident in their team or convinced of their doom.

Overreactions are part of the fun to some people, but I try to take a tempered approach to the early season. The season is so short that we cannot say we really know much until at least the midway point, if not later. And the games can turn on such random events that a win or a loss can distract us from the specifics of a game and lead us to false conclusions. At the same time, these first few weeks do not mean nothing. They might tell us the wrong things sometimes, but not without traces of truth.

In the spirit of interrogating we know and do not know, I present some things I think the 2024 Golden Gophers have taught me about who they are. Some of these items are observations rather than prognostications, but even the former can be proven at least partly wrong later. We'll just have to check back in a couple of months to see where I am mistaken.

Max Brosmer has stabilized the quarterback position the way the Gophers hoped, with caveats.

For whatever tweaks different players or coordinators have introduced, the Minnesota offense has never asked a ton out of its quarterback. At its highest-functioning, a capable band of skill players and a strong offensive line can lead the way — as long as a steady hand is at the wheel, that is.

The rushing attack needs space that will not be there if defenses do not fear the pass. A star receiver can only do so much if the ball is over his head or going to the other team. The Gophers cannot plug in just anyone and field a balanced, effective offense. See the examples of Conor Rhoda and Demry Croft, Cole Kramer, and of course Athan Kaliakmanis. Kaliakmanis had some ability but lacked consistency, and in his redshirt sophomore season he averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt.

With Kaliakmanis off to Rutgers, the new quarterback is Max Brosmer. Brosmer's output so far affirms preseason expectations. When he is on his game, Brosmer is a rhythmic passer who is on time with his receivers and very willing to find the checkdown if needed. He has a quick release and can apply just the right combination of touch and velocity to hit intermediate throws.

2024 Gophers Season Preview

Most coaches don't last this long. A majority don't make it even half this long. For all his game management issues, for as many of his players transfer every year, and for the amount he keeps his name on the market for other jobs (whether as a leverage play or to actually leave), P.J. Fleck has made it to an eighth season as Minnesota's head football coach. Just four men have held this job longer than him; two have their names on buildings, and another has his name on the locker room in the stadium. (The fourth pops up on the Big Ten Network every once in a while.)

Fleck has given the Gophers their best season since Lyndon Johnson was president, ended losing prolonged losing streaks to Wisconsin and Iowa (not that he didn't contribute heavily to the latter), and brought in the program's best recruiting classes of the internet era.

Yet his tenure has been plagued by big questions, posed with varying degrees of fairness: If he took more risks, would the Gophers have won the West before divisions went away and the conference became harder? Can he identify a reliable quarterback? If he has another breakthrough season, how quickly does he head for the exit? How much of his success has been because of Joe Rossi, who is now at Michigan State? Does he have to be this way?

After seven years, Fleck may for the first time face the threat of losing his job. Making a bowl on a technicality once is a forgivable outcome, just a normal trough in the cycle of a fine but not elite college football program. Two successive sub-.500 finishes would at the very least test the patience of the fan base, and depending on the circumstances, could justify Fleck's dismissal. His buyout drops to $5 million on January 1, which is not insignificant but in the era of super-conference television contracts is not prohibitive either, even while considering the decent chance that athletic director Mark Coyle has to find a new men's basketball coach next spring. Five wins would not guarantee Coyle makes a move, but could one call Fleck definitely safe in that situation?

Fleck has, to his credit, constructed a roster with potential. Maybe this year is just middling, but there are intriguing young players in several areas: a brilliant starting tailback who is still a true sophomore; three blue-chip offensive linemen in their first or second year of college; athletic wide receivers who should play supporting roles in 2024 but will take on more responsibility in future seasons; a couple of a pair of highly touted edge rushers; ascendant linebackers; a safety from just a couple hours up I-35 who looks like a future star. This goes without mentioning the four-star quarterback committed to next year's recruiting class. The pieces are here to build to something greater a year or two down the line.

To do that, however, Fleck must re-establish Minnesota right now as a stable, competitive team that will not throw away games late, serve as chum for the helmet schools, or look like a wreck against a worse team due to an unfavorable matchup. If the prospects are ahead of schedule, he can pull it off and regain the fans base's trust. If they still need time, and the team's veterans cannot pick up the slack, Coyle might be asking another big question about his coach: Can someone do this job better than Fleck?

* * * * * *

From this point on, you will find a more straightforward preview of the Gophers' season. For each area of the team — offense, defense, special teams — I've linked the position previews I published over the last few weeks and offer a predicted depth chart. I also ask 10 big questions facing the 2024 Gophers, divided between the three units.

Offense

Position previews: receivers and tight ends ・ running backs ・ quarterbacks ・ offensive line

Predicted depth chart:

Click to enlarge any image in this post.

Around better weapons, will Max Brosmer show he has another gear?

Fleck bet on a high-upside quarterback in Athan Kaliakmanis, and it never clicked. Max Brosmer does not have Kaliakmanis' physical abilities, but he has an impressive track record from his days at New Hampshire and should offer a higher floor. If that is all he offers, then the Gophers' offense will be steadier. If Brosmer can be any more than that, he could give them a genuine chance to beat one or two of the tougher teams on their schedule.

2024 Gophers Position Previews: Special Teams

September's coming soon, so it is once again time to start thinking about football. Ski-U-Blog will analyze every position group on the Gophers' roster: starters, depth, and potential future contributors. The series ends today with a look at the special teams unit.

Likely Starters

A good number of college kickers hit game-winning field goals. Not all of them do, obviously. But there are game-winners every year, whether they are of the walk-off variety or in the last minute or with a bit longer than that and more work to do. However special each kick is to that player, and however much fun it is for his team and for the fans, it is not a unique moment.

How many kickers get to say they won a game for their team? Not put on the final touch, but won it by scoring every point? In the 21st century, it might not take two hands to count them all at the FBS level. And I doubt any of them got to do what Dragan Kesich did, which is go 4-for-5 in 22-mile-per-hour winds at Kinnick Stadium, breaking an eight-year losing streak to one of his school's most hated rivals. He won back Floyd of Rosedale, and he got to lead the charge to pick up the pig.

The win over Iowa was the high point of Kesich's season, but there was plenty of good besides that. Kesich hit six of seven field goal attempts of 45 yards or longer, and he was 17-for-20 on all other kicks. He converted every extra point he tried last year. On kickoffs, Kesich has been a near-automatic touchback since he joined the team in 2020. His performance made him the Big Ten kicker of the year and a semifinalist for the Lou Groza Award. If he has another strong year, Kesich could win the award outright before heading to the NFL.

2024 Gophers Position Previews: Secondary

September's coming soon, so it is once again time to start thinking about football. Ski-U-Blog will analyze every position group on the Gophers' roster: starters, depth, and potential future contributors. A remodeled secondary that could make or break the season is the focus of this post.

Likely Starters

Field cornerback Justin Walley contributed from Day 1 his true freshman year, chasing after Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson as an introduction to college football. If you can believe it, Walley is now a senior, having never missed a game and starting the last 32 in a row. He has never quite become a star, but he is easily Minnesota's most trusty defensive back entering 2024.

Walley is less a game-changing, impact player than an well-rounded, reliable one. He stays on top of his man and has quick enough hips and feet to turn and track a receiver going vertical. While he has at times had issues with comeback routes — possibly a crack in the scheme — or underthrows, Walley has developed into a sure tackler like Coney Durr and Terell Smith before him.

As long as Walley is available, he gives the Gophers one spot on the field about which they do not have to worry. If he can take another step before departing, he will be one of the better cornerbacks in the conference and improve his NFL stock.

2024 Gophers Position Previews: Linebackers

September's coming soon, so it is once again time to start thinking about football. Ski-U-Blog will analyze every position group on the Gophers' roster: starters, depth, and potential future contributors. This post concerns a linebacker corps coming off a rocky year but possessing ample potential.

Likely Starters

Middle linebacker was a disaster zone for Minnesota in 2023. The starter was injured until almost Halloween. The most seasoned backup missed the whole year. Two more veterans transferred out (and had fairly productive seasons at their new schools).

This left the job to Maverick Baranowski. Barnowski frequently almost did the right thing. It's a common story for a young player: He lets the other team bait him, he overruns a gap, he gets his hand up but can't bat down the pass, he gets pushed back by a more experienced blocker, he misses tackles, and so on. While Baranowski cut down on those errors throughout the year and made some thunderous tackles — at least until an injury shut him down in November — the truth is that he was just not ready.

I believe in Baranowski's talent and that his 2024 can at least be fine. He would not be the first Gopher linebacker that was unprepared for his first real action but turned into a legitimate player.

2024 Gophers Position Previews: Defensive Line

September's coming soon, so it is once again time to start thinking about football. Ski-U-Blog will analyze every position group on the Gophers' roster: starters, depth, and potential future contributors. We move to the defense, starting with its most promising area: the line.

Likely Starters

Jah Joyner's game has advanced. He always looked like a potential stud, with all his length and power and explosiveness. It just took him awhile for everything to click.

He generated plenty of pressure in his first season of meaningful action but only 1.5 sacks. Last year, the production matched the process. He finished with 7.5 sacks, tops on the team and tied for 3rd in the conference. Opposing tackles frequently could not keep up with Joyner after he fired off the ball, and if they got a hand on him, he had the bend and fight to make a play anyway.

If Joyner had not missed a few tackles (see the Purdue game for examples), he could have done even more damage with the opportunities he made for himself. And if he had more trust from the coaches against the run, where he has improved but still has plenty of room to grow, he would have played more snaps and gotten even more chances.

His physical traits mean someone in the NFL will take a chance on him, but this is Joyner's last chance to put it all together as a college player. He could be the top sack-getter in the Big Ten, something no Gopher has been since at least 2004. (It is shockingly hard to get a find a more exact year.) He could make All-Big Ten teams. He could ascend into one of the stars of the conference.

2024 Gophers Position Previews: Offensive Line

September's coming soon, so it is once again time to start thinking about football. Ski-U-Blog will analyze every position group on the Gophers' roster: starters, depth, and potential future contributors. This is the fourth and final post covering the offense, which will look at Minnesota's experienced offensive line.

Likely Starters

Aireontae Ersery should be the Gophers' next Day 2 pick in the NFL Draft next April. He enters the season in high regard, having made the media's all-conference first team a year ago and earning the fourth-highest rating among offensive linemen in EA Sports' College Football video game. Ersery, Darius Taylor, and Dragan Kesich are the three Gophers outside observers agree are among the best in the Big Ten at their position — if not the best.

The key for Ersery is how well he moves his 330-pound frame. Run blocking and pass protection start from the ground up. That means having both a strong base to move people off the ball or fend off bull rushers, and quick feet. Ersery has both. Whether on the back side or the play side, he is a superb reach blocker, stepping across the face of a defensive lineman to cut off the path to the ballcarrier:

And Ersery can keep in front of speed rushers trying to break past him, maintaining a pocket into which his quarterback can step.

That combination of size and athleticism, combined with the smarts to pick up late rushers and pass off a defender to a teammate, is what makes Ersery a pro prospect.

2024 Gophers Position Previews: Quarterbacks

September's coming soon, so it is once again time to start thinking about football. Ski-U-Blog will analyze every position group on the Gophers' roster: starters, depth, and potential future contributors. The third post in this annual series covers a nearly totally remade quarterback group.

Likely Starter

Last year's version of this post looked a lot different. Athan Kaliakmanis was entering his first full year as the Gophers' No. 1, and the big question was when he could put together his physical tools for more than a few plays a game, and become a genuine power-conference starter. The answer, if we ever get one, will not come while Kaliakmanis wears a Minnesota uniform: After a difficult season and a semi-public dispute over his reasons for leaving, Kaliakmanis transferred to Rutgers to rejoin his former coordinator, Kirk Ciarrocca. Backup Cole Kramer started his post-football life, and third-stringer Drew Viotto left for Eastern Michigan.

Filling the void is Max Brosmer, a New Hampshire graduate in his last year of eligibility. As every broadcast is sure to mention between Week 1 and at least the end of October, Brosmer took a group of teammates on a part-work, part-bonding retreat in his native Georgia after spring practices. He clearly does not want to spend the whole season as The New Guy.

By the stats, Brosmer (with a long "O," like "throw") is intriguing but not exciting. He was 2nd in the FCS in passing attempts and passing yards while throwing just five interceptions, but his per-attempt (7.5 yards) and per-completion (11.8) numbers were fairly middling. Over half of his attempts last season, according to Pro Football Focus, were within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage or behind it.

At first glance, the Gophers found a quarterback who has shown he can take care of the ball in the short and intermediate game.

The question is whether Brosmer can reliably threaten FBS secondaries deep. Over his career, per PFF, he has averaged 14.1 yards per attempt on his passes of 20 yards or more. That is not outstanding but better than average, hinting that he could at least be serviceable throwing the long ball.