Digesting Norwich City's Precarious Moment

In my time following Norwich City, it has never been dull. The Premier League era's definitional yo-yo club has changed leagues seven times in the last dozen seasons, going up and down and up and down again with dizzying frequency.

Despite the joys of promotion seasons, this cycle is uniquely disillusioning in sports. I have never seen this team survive a season in the Premier League, and they have had four tries at it while I've been paying attention. As England's top flight becomes more of a cartel (run by a six-team cabal), increasing the distance between its longtime members and those hoping to re-establish themselves as even minnows in the big pond, I doubt I ever will see Norwich string together more than a couple seasons in the top division of the pyramid.

It is true, though, that the Canaries have a little more financial might than before, having recently changed hands from longtime stewards Delia Smith and Michael Wynn-Jones to Milwaukee Brewers owner Mark Attanasio. By merit of appearing in the Premier League a few times during its global boom, the club has gained international fans like me who will pay to stream their matches, order a yellow-and-green scarf, or even fly across oceans to visit the Fine City. Whatever one's opinion on foreign investment and foreign fandom, they are necessary to compete.

What's more, the team does have some talent. Josh Sargent, for my money the Championship's best striker, led the United States' front line at the 2022 World Cup. Midfielder Marcelino Núñez will be at the next World Cup, should Chile make it out of CONMEBOL qualifying. Borja Sainz led the league's Golden Boot race for most of this season.

In his first full season in charge, sporting director Ben Knapper made the squad dramatically younger over the last two transfer windows, shipping out Championship veterans for some intriguing prospects. They genuinely might have the next James Maddison or Emilano Buendía on their hands. Maybe a couple of those young players even become the next Alex Tettey or Wes Hoolahan, beloved and essential regulars who stay for years rather than leaving for bigger clubs.

However, no one feels so optimistic at the moment. Knapper recently fired the Dane he had charged with leading this project, Johannes Hoff Thorup. Over Thorup's last 10 matches, Norwich picked up just 6 points, including losses to inferior sides such as Oxford United, Plymouth Argyle, and Portsmouth. After threatening the playoff places in February, they will finish right in the middle of the table, closer to the relegation zone than the top six despite having the league's second-highest goal total. It looks like it could be some time before Norwich go back up again.

Thorup's last game in charge, a 3-1 loss at Millwall, had an overwhelming air of toxicity. I won't pretend the players didn't care, as many fans do whenever things go poorly. The front three sprinted after vain attempts to spring counterattacks, midfielders put effort into (sometimes stupid) attempts to win the ball, and veterans like Shane Duffy and Kenny McLean were visibly enraged by the absurd ease of Millwall's goals. They're professionals who have given their whole lives to the sport since childhood, and who have pride or at least promotions on the line — their desire should not be in question.

But effort is not the same as competence. Between a few pretty passing combinations, Norwich couldn't consistently regain and maintain threatening possession — despite possession being essential to Throup's style. Millwall set pieces were always threats, no matter how uncomplicated defending them should have been. Vicente Reyes, the young third goalkeeper in a season of woeful goalkeeping, looked hopeless. The Canaries were outshot 16 to 4, generating their only attempt on target (and goal) on a corner. Home fans at the Den gave an "Olé!" for every completed pass. Visiting fans, having watched another disastrous showing at Carrow Road three days earlier, had nothing to applaud.

Before Thorup's dismissal, the likely course for the summer was already apparent. Sargent, having proved everything he can at this level and needing to solidify his place at next year's World Cup on American soil, would leave. Núñez, pursued by the likes of Everton in January, would find a new club despite some unimpressive performances late in the season. Longtime favorites like Angus Gunn and Onel Hernandez, both past their peaks, would be replaced. Norwich would fill in those gaps and hopefully make their long-term aims a little bit closer.

This abrupt coaching change throws everything into question, however. As Norwich fans saw with Stuart Webber and Daniel Farke's relationship, the sporting director and head coach are supposed to work in conjunction. Knapper signed multiple players who either knew Thorup from his prior stop at Nordsjælland or were Thorup's countrymen. Knapper signed several wingers and attacking midfielders because it was apparently what Thorup wanted to make his system work, even with weaknesses in other areas.

Farke finished 14th in his first season, but Webber stuck to his plan. What does it say about Knapper's plan that he decided to give up on it so soon? Was Thorup the problem?

Maybe. Under David Wagner, set pieces and defensive structure were two genuine strengths. The Canaries have been one of the league's worst teams at defending set pieces or creating chances from dead balls. Despite Thorup's use of a three-man midfield, which should have let Norwich control the middle, opponents frequently took the ball from end to end with one or two simple passes. Consistency was a constant issue, both from game to game and moment to moment. Norwich went from dominance to a deficit far too many times and never could build upon positive results.

As a counterpoint, however, Norwich played an incredibly young team all season. From late October through the end of March, Sargent, Núñez, Sainz, and McLean started zero games together due to injuries, suspensions, and even a chest infection. How could a lineup develop rapport and consistency without having its four most important players every week?

How could Oscar Schwartau (18 years old), Lucien Mahovo (19), Jacob Wright (19) Kellen Fisher (20), Ante Crnac (21), Ben Chrisene (21), Callum Doyle (21), Reyes (21), Lewis Dobbin (22), and Amankwah Forson (22) not make mistakes in one of the world's 10 best leagues? Most of them, if not all, look like they can become key parts of the next Norwich team to challenge for promotion — particularly Wright, whose permanent signing should be a top priority. That potential still does not mean they are complete players yet. Is it not natural that a team so reliant on talented but unpolished youngsters would fluctuate so wildly between enthralling and appalling?

The questions to point at Knapper about the squad mount quickly: While it's too early to give up on José Córdoba, was his Ozan Kabak-like high-risk play at center back not apparent before he arrived? Signing someone with Matěj Jurásek's potential was not exactly a waste of money, but was he necessary when there were other needs? With Sargent's injury history, shouldn't Knapper have signed cover for him at striker before he missed 14 straight games with a groin problem?  Is Crnac a winger or a striker? Is Schwartau a winger or a midfielder? Was signing Doyle on loan the right fit? Couldn't this club do better than George Long as the second choice in goal?

Most Norwich fans accepted entering August that this was a transitional season. However, whatever one's expectations were, they certainly were higher than this. With such limited proof of concept and the horridness of the last two months, many fans had already turned on Thorup. The exasperation on the pitch suggests some players were maybe ready to do the same.

Ultimately, ditching Thorup is at least defensible, even if I remain uncertain if it was correct. Interim coach Jack Wilshere's draw at Middlesbrough on Saturday provided small encouragement he could work as a successor. Whether it is Wilshere, an uninspiring retread like Russell Martin, or someone we've never heard of, the next head coach will provide a needed refresh. What Norwich need even more than that is a clear direction.

With every season removed from the Premier League, a return seems more and more unlikely. Worse yet, Ipswich Town are coming back down to the Championship with a better set of players and the benefit of parachute payments. The Canaries' 16-year unbeaten run in the East Anglian Derby may end very soon.

The prospects of having nothing to play for and of finally losing territorial bragging rights could set Norwich adrift in second-division anonymity. As more experienced fans than I know well, that can quickly lead you to even worse places. Whether it's by creating the right environment for his future-minded signings or by making major moves, Knapper better show he knows what he's doing — and soon.