Today, we cover the SEC.
Southeastern Conference
West
Predicted standings:
1. Alabama (conference champions)
2. Auburn
3. Mississippi State
4. LSU
5. Texas A&M
6. Mississippi
7. Arkansas
There are reasons to think this year's Alabama isn't the best team in the country again, but it's hard to put too much stock in those reasons, considering the last decade of context.
Just to humor the optimists, let's go over those reasons.
Tua Tagovailoa did everything possible for everyone to think he's a worthy starting quarterback, but he only did so in a few games and over 77 throws. Maybe he has problems as the full-time starter (assuming he becomes the full-time starter), especially after losing wideouts Calvin Ridley, Robert Foster, and Cam Sims.
But I don't consider that possibility a very strong one. Ridley was one of the best receivers in college football, yes, but Tagovailoa has plentiful options on a two-deep made from years of elite recruiting. Even if nobody on the roster matches that production, it's unlikely they won't perform. And if Tagovailoa does struggle, Jalen Hurts is still around and still a solid, two-dimensional quarterback.
And an imperfect passing game can be shielded by a top-notch run game. Most of last year's line is back to block for Damien Harris (7.4 yards per carry, 11 touchdowns), Najee Harris (a former Hudl phenom and top recruit who saw limited time last year but torched Georgia for 64 yards on six carries in the title game), and whomever else Nick Saban throws onto the field.
So the offense is probably still good.
The defense has another new coordinator after Jeremy Pruitt left for Tennessee, but we've seen the Bama machine persist before after Kirby Smart left for Georgia. I'm not concerned about Tosh Lupoi; in a few years, he'll probably leave for a head coach job too.
With a deep and monstrous front seven, there are no worries about the best run defense in FBS – unless you play them, of course. The hulking end Raekwon Davis, who made 10 tackles for loss and finished fourth on the team in overall tackles last season, is the biggest star.
The most legitimate concern on the team is the secondary. Six defensive backs either graduated or left for the NFL, including two-time All-American safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and 18-defensed-pass corner Levi Wallace. An inexperienced secondary can be problematic. Even if those problems are minimized at a program like Bama, they might be significant against some of the good passing teams on the schedule.
There just aren't many teams with as few flaws as the Tide, and none with such strengths that can cover for those flaws. I don't know of a better national title favorite.
I don't think it will happen because of their schedule (Washington and Georgia are among their non-division opponents), but Auburn has the talent to make the Playoff.
Almost everyone from last year's eighth-ranked defense (by yards per lay allowed) returns. Subtract safeties Tray Matthews and Stephen Roberts, corner Carlton Davis, and end Jeff Holland, and you still have one of the best units in college football.
All three levels got significant rotation last season, so there's experience across the starting lineup. There are five defensive backs with two or more passes defensed, including corners Jamel Dean and Javaris Davis, who each broke up eight.
The front seven looks stronger thanks to a veteran linebacker corps led by Deshaun Davis and Darrell Williams (first and third on the team in tackles) and a deep and disruptive line. Tackles Derrick Brown and Dontavius Russell each weigh in at more than 300 pounds and, combined with end Marlon Davidson, made 22 total tackles for loss. A top-30 rush defense should creep closer to the top 10 or top 15.
Their defense was what won them the division last season, but an improved offense will keep them in the division race this year. Jarrett Stidham is one of the three or four best quarterbacks in the SEC.
And Stidham gets back his favorite weapons. With catch rates greater than 80 percent, Ryan Davis and Eli Stove are two of the nation's most sure-handed wideouts. With an average of 22.2 yards per catch, Darius Slayton is one of the most explosive (if he can catch the ball, that is). And Will Hastings, with a 65-percent catch rate and an average of 20.2 yards per catch, is a blend of both. If Stove and Hastings recover well from ACL tears (always a dicey proposition), here's plenty to like in this passing game. If they don't, Auburn is good enough to manage without them thanks to Davis, Slayton, and a bunch of former big-name recruits.
The offense's biggest problem is pass protection. Last season, the Tigers tied for the 14th-most sacks allowed, and with two experienced tackles gone, the pocket probably isn't much more secure. Experience on the interior means it shouldn't get worse either, but the problem remains.
What probably won't be a problem is the run game, which was fine last year. That veteran presence at guard and center should maintain that. Despite the losses of Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway to the pros, Auburn looks in good shape. Kam Martin actually outran each on a per-play basis and had just one fewer carry than Pettway. Stidham was a solid runner too.
If the defense holds strong and the offense gets better like I think it will, this is a top-10 team. It'll take a lot of luck, but making the Playoff isn't impossible.
After watching what Joe Moorhead did as offensive coordinator at Penn State, I don't know how anyone can not be excited for his first season as head coach at Mississippi State. Moorhead called plays for some of the most entertaining offenses in football. Sure, a lot of that was having ultimate West Coast tailback Saquon Barkley, but a lot of it was Moorhead's aggressiveness and ingenuity.
He doesn't have a back like Barkley (mainly because they're so rare), but he does have a great quarterback in Nick Fitzgerald. Even if Fitzgerald's passing needs some work, he's still okay at it, and the dynamism he offers with his legs makes him one of the country's most dangerous offensive players. Tailback Aeris Williams has never been an explosive runner but has a track record of solid play, and he runs behind a stout offensive line.
The passing game looks worse because of Fitzgerald's deficiencies, but he'll have weapons. The top two receivers are gone, but they were two of many who got plenty of reps. For a lot of teams, the difference between the first- and fifth-most-used receivers might be 30 or 40 targets; for the Bulldogs last season, it was 10. There's depth here.
Last year, this team was a mediocre 77th in yards per play. I would be surprised if they don't improve upon that significantly, possibly becoming one of the conference's best.
With this defense though, all the offense has to be is good to win nine or 10 games.
The best part of a strong Bulldog defense is the line. Last season, seven defensive linemen recorded at least 2.5 tackles for loss. The biggest members of that line are ends Montez Sweat (15.5 TFLs, 10.5 of which were sacks) and Gerri Green (10 TFLs, four passes defensed, three forced fumbles at outside linebacker) 301-pound tackle Jeffery Simmons (12 TFLs and two forced fumbles).
The secondary is good as well. Safeties Mark McLaurin and Johnathan Abram were first and second on the team, respectively, in tackles, and McLaurin had six interceptions to go with the pair's 11 total pass breakups. Three prominent corners are back, and though none shined last year, they still finished the year having given up a 51.8-percent completion rate. Bring that 14.4 yards per completion number down a bit, and you have a good starting backfield.
At linebacker, there's less star power after Dez Harris' graduation and Green's move to end. In the middle is Erroll Thompson, an SEC All-Freshman selection last year, and the likely outside starters are junior Leo Lewis and sophomore Willie Gay, Jr. Even if those three play to their pedigree, there's still problematic depth. It's up to a bunch of young guys and a junior college transfer to back them up.
There are problems defensively, but I think the talent – especially with such excellence up front – outweighs those problems. Adjusting to a new coordinator can't cause so much damage this isn't a top-25 defense.
It should be a great first season for Moorhead. Because of Auburn and Alabama, Mississippi State won't win the West, but they could sure be frightening.
LSU recruits exceedingly well and has an exceedingly influential booster network that aims exceedingly high, and for that reason, 2018 will be a disappointment.
In addition to playing one of the country's hardest schedules every year (third-toughest, according to FPI), the Tigers have the obstacle of plentiful turnover. Nobody in the conference returns less production, according to Bill Connelly's measures.
Most of that turnover comes on offense. Quarterback Danny Etling is gone, and in his place is either Ohio State transfer Joe Burrows or sophomore Myles Brennan. The top two receivers and tailbacks are gone as well.
The line looked like the most stable part of the offense – and even that was relative – until guard Ed Ingram's recent arrest left just two established starters up front. I can believe the skill positions turn out passably with blue-chip talent and a few established wideouts from further down last year's depth chart (or from elsewhere, like Texas Tech transfer Jonathan Giles), but starting youth on the offensive line is usually a precursor to problems.
The defense gets more back, and that's good because it was LSU's better side last year. The defensive line is the least trustworthy group, and even then, it doesn't look like a total disaster with a couple of transfer additions. The second and third levels have both top-end talent (most notably linebacker Devin White and corner Andraez "Greedy" Williams) and young, former-blue-chip depth that saw a bit of the field last season. I don't think there's enough to jump from good to great, but good will keep the Tigers competitive.
But with that offense and especially that schedule, I don't have high hopes. If the Orgeron era indeed doesn't work out, we could look at this season as the beginning of the end.
Texas A&M has massive expectations and an obscene amount of oil-soaked money tied up in Jimbo Fisher. I lean towards believing the grandiosity of those expectations border on delusion just because it will forever be hard to win the SEC (especially the West), but the program is in better shape with Fisher as the coach. He definitely has the résumé to inspire a frustrated fan base, and he raises the program's national profile. (He's also apparently willing to awkwardly go along with weird Aggie culture too.)
In the long term, this hire is probably going to end in a disappointingly moderate success. Kind of like the Kevin Sumlin hire, only a little better and with a lot more money involved.
Immediately, it probably won't make a ton of difference. If anything, A&M will be a little worse than they otherwise would be because transition years so infrequently are really smooth. 2018 is about developing talent, sorting out the depth chart, and avoiding embarrassment in the face of a monstrous schedule.
As is the case seemingly every year in Aggieland, the biggest position battle is at quarterback. For once though, the main competitors are the same as they were the year before: true sophomore Kellen Mond, who was a solid runner last year and comes with four-star pedigree; and redshirt sophomore Nick Starkel, who was better across the board as a passer (completion rate, yards per attempt and per completion, touchdowns, sack rate – Mond only beat him in interception rate, and narrowly so) but seldom dared to leave the pocket. Starkel feels like the safer option, but he hasn't won the job yet, and Mond could be significantly better now that he isn't a true freshman anymore.
The rest of the offense is young too. Since Christian Kirk left school early for the NFL and Damion Ratley graduated, all eight remaining wideouts who were targeted last season are sophomores. . Between Jhamon Ausbon, Camron Buckley, and Roshauud Paul, the best of the eight, there's bound to be a new top target. Fisher signed a couple of four-star receivers this offseason to go with them, so we might see as many 10 underclassmen catching passes. This could be an incredible passing attack in 2019.
On the line, there are plenty of players with at least partial experience after injuries and ineffectiveness caused a season-long shuffle. Maybe that will help the young quarterbacks and a previously poor run game come along.
The defense has more upperclassmen, which doesn't mean as much good for the future but could mean stability right now. The best collection of youth is in the secondary, where seven of last year's underclassmen got regular playing time. The best playmakers are at linebacker and end: tackle leader Tyrel Dodson, who also added 11 passes defensed; and joint-TFL leaders Otaro Alaka and Landis Durham, the latter of whom was A&M's best sacker.
Last year's unit was mediocre at best, but with a good number of starters returning and a renowned new coordinator in Mike Elko (previously of Notre Dame), we could see slight immediate improvement.
By my estimation, A&M is clearly favored in as many games as they are clear underdogs: five each. Call the odds against South Carolina and Ole Miss roughly 50-50, and you don't have much room between floor and ceiling. Jimbo's debut should be underwhelming even if he makes progress.
Even depleted by graduations, the NFL Draft, and transfers, Ole Miss still has a talented roster – at least one side of the ball.
Last season, the Rebels ranked in the top 16 in completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, quarterback rating, and touchdown passes despite losing Week 1 starter Shea Patterson to injury midway through the year. Patterson is now a Michigan Wolverine, leaving the job to senior Jordan Ta'amu, who did a little better than him in his roughly half-season as QB.
Without much of a run game (though Ta'amu can run) and with a few big-play at the top of the depth chart, expect Ole Miss to throw the ball more than anyone in the SEC.
Also expect them to give up a lot of yards. Aside from a solid rush, the Rebels' defense was mostly bad: 117th in rush defense and 81st in pass defense (both by yards per play). The rush is weakened with the losses of Breeland Speaks and Marquis Haynes, the team's star ends. With leading tackler DeMarquis Gates also gone, the run defense could again be terrible. Improvement is more likely in the secondary.
In time, they could rebuild their defense with continued success in recruiting, but for now, this is one of the more one-sided teams in the major conferences.
"Fit" can be a pretty nebulous term, but Chad Morris really, really fits at Arkansas. He's a strong offensive mind and a well documented savant at recruiting Texas, which is always vital for a team that won't beat out the bigger schools for recruits out east. Morris never saw his efforts at SMU turn into a winning team, but the program had a definite upward trajectory that made it inevitable he wouldn't stay in Dallas very long.
Of course, Morris' offensive and recruiting expertise won't fix the Razorbacks' immediate need: A defense. Under Bret Bielema, Arkansas consistently had problems despite Bielema's defensive background. In his five years as head coach, they finished in the top 100 of FBS in yards per play allowed once (2014, when they ranked 33rd). In his last season, they were 117th.
That won't change in one season. Even if the Hogs score a lot – which they will – they won't have that a good year unless they solve their defensive woes.
East
Predicted standings:
1. Georgia
2. Florida
3. South Carolina
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt
7. Tennessee
Georgia has basically no competition in the SEC East. The question, then, inevitably becomes: Can they beat Bama?
The short answer: yes, but the Bulldogs are at a disadvantage.
The long answer: Although the roster is still stacked, there are big playmakers to replace on either side of the ball.
Last year, Georgia had an excellent run game. Some of that was certainly the linemen's ability, seeing as how the team always attracts blue-chip recruits, but the biggest reason was the two star tailbacks taking handoffs. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel combined for more than 2,500 rushing yards and 31 touchdowns. It will be hard to match their production.
Still, Georgia has the pieces in place for another great rushing attack. D'Andre Swift averaged 7.5 yards per carry as a freshman backup and is supplemented by Zamir White, formerly the top running back prospect in the country. The offensive line only loses All-American guard Isaiah Wynn. If they can't run the ball as well as before, the difference won't be that great.
The passing game has only one departure: Javon Wims, the team's leader in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns. He'll be missed, but there's plenty of skill left. Terry Godwin, second in each of those statistics, is one of three experienced wideouts on the team to go with all the top prospects Georgia signed this offseason. And Jake Fromm showed last year he is one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC, if not all of FBS.
The defense has to deal with losing heat-seeking-missile-in-pads Roquan Smith and a handful of other important players, but it still should be in okay, but shape too.
First, the veterans: Jonathan Ledbetter and Tyler Clark combined for nine tackles for loss and are the best players on the line. D'Andre Walker had 13.5 by himself at outside linebacker, and he leads the second level. And corner Deandre Baker and safety J.R. Reed (combined 19 passes defensed) are two playmakers in the secondary.
The rest of the depth chart is talented but less experienced. Though a handful of remaining linebackers got decent playing time as backups, and the line gets a boost from Notre Dame transfer Jay Hayes, there's more potential than experience on most of the depth chart, especially in the secondary. Great recruiting will help, but it won't eliminate those concerns.
Even with a younger two-deep, the defense probably won't fall below a top-20 level. With a potentially top-five offense, that's still enough to breeze through the division.
Georgia is one of the five best teams in the country, and under Kirby Smart, they're getting better. Smart landed the No. 1 class in America in the spring, breaking a streak of seven years of Alabama doing so. Even if the Bulldogs finish as "only" SEC runners-up instead of national champions, they have as good a future as anyone in the country.
If you're looking for one SEC team who struggled last season to rebound, it's probably Florida. The Gators have a talented and experienced roster and an excellent coach, and they were competitive in most of their games last season. My expectations are tempered just because Florida was embarrassed a couple of times, and they only had one comfortable win (36-7 over UAB). But this year can be decent.
The Gators' offense, a problem since Urban Meyer left, has a solid base of talent. Quarterback Feleipe Franks was dismal as a redshirt freshman but will surely come closer to his four-star expectations with time.
The entire Florida line returns, and Franks throws to a few former blue-chip receivers in their junior years: Tyrie Cleveland (first on the team in yards per catch), Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain, and Mississippi transfer Van Jefferson, the most proven of the four. Malik Davis, Jordan Scarlett (back from injury), and four-star signing Dameon Pierce can comprise a good running back rotation.
If Dan Mullen and his staff can get more out of their high-pedigree roster than Jim McElwain or Will Muschamp ever did, there's potential for an offensive breakout.
The defense is more trustworthy but just as young. Sophomores lined the two-deep; most players who recorded a tackle last year are back for both 2018 and 2019. Perhaps that youth is why the Gators were prone to giving up big plays (by Bill Connelly's Isolated Points Per Play, a measure of explosiveness, they ranked 13th-worst) despite otherwise doing well. Opponents averaged a middling 4.2 yards per carry and a low 54.8-percent completion rate. They suppressed offense enough to where the big chunks of yardage didn't hurt them too much.
Linebacker David Reese (not to be confused with true freshman defensive back David Reese) and linemen Cece Jefferson and Jabari Zuniga lead the rush defense; the three made 31.5 TFLs last season. Most of 2018's young regulars are in the box, which bodes well.
Safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and corners Marco Wilson and C.J. Henderson lead the secondary after defensing 27 passes last season. However, the previous staff didn't have much of a rotation in the backfield, and after a couple of graduations, there isn't much experienced depth. Florida allowed the 23rd-most yards per pass attempt last season; if someone gets hurt, they might stay down there.
Florida has the talent to win a lot of games... in 2019 or so. Right now, that talent should make for a respectable transition year. In a best-case scenario, Mullen will win nine or 10 games.
The short answer: yes, but the Bulldogs are at a disadvantage.
The long answer: Although the roster is still stacked, there are big playmakers to replace on either side of the ball.
Last year, Georgia had an excellent run game. Some of that was certainly the linemen's ability, seeing as how the team always attracts blue-chip recruits, but the biggest reason was the two star tailbacks taking handoffs. Nick Chubb and Sony Michel combined for more than 2,500 rushing yards and 31 touchdowns. It will be hard to match their production.
Still, Georgia has the pieces in place for another great rushing attack. D'Andre Swift averaged 7.5 yards per carry as a freshman backup and is supplemented by Zamir White, formerly the top running back prospect in the country. The offensive line only loses All-American guard Isaiah Wynn. If they can't run the ball as well as before, the difference won't be that great.
The passing game has only one departure: Javon Wims, the team's leader in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns. He'll be missed, but there's plenty of skill left. Terry Godwin, second in each of those statistics, is one of three experienced wideouts on the team to go with all the top prospects Georgia signed this offseason. And Jake Fromm showed last year he is one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC, if not all of FBS.
The defense has to deal with losing heat-seeking-missile-in-pads Roquan Smith and a handful of other important players, but it still should be in okay, but shape too.
First, the veterans: Jonathan Ledbetter and Tyler Clark combined for nine tackles for loss and are the best players on the line. D'Andre Walker had 13.5 by himself at outside linebacker, and he leads the second level. And corner Deandre Baker and safety J.R. Reed (combined 19 passes defensed) are two playmakers in the secondary.
The rest of the depth chart is talented but less experienced. Though a handful of remaining linebackers got decent playing time as backups, and the line gets a boost from Notre Dame transfer Jay Hayes, there's more potential than experience on most of the depth chart, especially in the secondary. Great recruiting will help, but it won't eliminate those concerns.
Even with a younger two-deep, the defense probably won't fall below a top-20 level. With a potentially top-five offense, that's still enough to breeze through the division.
Georgia is one of the five best teams in the country, and under Kirby Smart, they're getting better. Smart landed the No. 1 class in America in the spring, breaking a streak of seven years of Alabama doing so. Even if the Bulldogs finish as "only" SEC runners-up instead of national champions, they have as good a future as anyone in the country.
If you're looking for one SEC team who struggled last season to rebound, it's probably Florida. The Gators have a talented and experienced roster and an excellent coach, and they were competitive in most of their games last season. My expectations are tempered just because Florida was embarrassed a couple of times, and they only had one comfortable win (36-7 over UAB). But this year can be decent.
The Gators' offense, a problem since Urban Meyer left, has a solid base of talent. Quarterback Feleipe Franks was dismal as a redshirt freshman but will surely come closer to his four-star expectations with time.
The entire Florida line returns, and Franks throws to a few former blue-chip receivers in their junior years: Tyrie Cleveland (first on the team in yards per catch), Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain, and Mississippi transfer Van Jefferson, the most proven of the four. Malik Davis, Jordan Scarlett (back from injury), and four-star signing Dameon Pierce can comprise a good running back rotation.
If Dan Mullen and his staff can get more out of their high-pedigree roster than Jim McElwain or Will Muschamp ever did, there's potential for an offensive breakout.
The defense is more trustworthy but just as young. Sophomores lined the two-deep; most players who recorded a tackle last year are back for both 2018 and 2019. Perhaps that youth is why the Gators were prone to giving up big plays (by Bill Connelly's Isolated Points Per Play, a measure of explosiveness, they ranked 13th-worst) despite otherwise doing well. Opponents averaged a middling 4.2 yards per carry and a low 54.8-percent completion rate. They suppressed offense enough to where the big chunks of yardage didn't hurt them too much.
Linebacker David Reese (not to be confused with true freshman defensive back David Reese) and linemen Cece Jefferson and Jabari Zuniga lead the rush defense; the three made 31.5 TFLs last season. Most of 2018's young regulars are in the box, which bodes well.
Safety Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and corners Marco Wilson and C.J. Henderson lead the secondary after defensing 27 passes last season. However, the previous staff didn't have much of a rotation in the backfield, and after a couple of graduations, there isn't much experienced depth. Florida allowed the 23rd-most yards per pass attempt last season; if someone gets hurt, they might stay down there.
Florida has the talent to win a lot of games... in 2019 or so. Right now, that talent should make for a respectable transition year. In a best-case scenario, Mullen will win nine or 10 games.
Will Muschamp's South Carolina did not often excel last season, but the Gamecocks were an above-average team with a reliable defense.
Trusting this season's team relies on faith in two things: significant offensive improvement through continuity and a soft landing for a likely worsening defense. Although neither possibility is out of the question, my faith has limits.
The 2017 offense was full of sophomores at the skill positions: the quarterback, the top receiver, the and top four tailbacks. Most of the rest of the starting lineup was juniors. Since last year's unit was only bad instead of really bad, you could see them improve to something more middling.
A middling offense would have been great to pair with last year's defense, which was not as good as its reputation but was still good (39th in yards per lay allowed) and kept most games within reach. The problem is turnover, especially in the back. Three regular DBs from a fairly thin rotation graduated, including leading pass-defender JaMarcus King. Even if the front seven stays disruptive, teams like Mizzou, A&M, and Ole Miss could tear that secondary to shreds.
With what they have, South Carolina doesn't have enough of a ceiling for me to pick them for second in the East. Still, they at least look decent enough to ensure they finish in the top half of an unremarkable division.
Trusting this season's team relies on faith in two things: significant offensive improvement through continuity and a soft landing for a likely worsening defense. Although neither possibility is out of the question, my faith has limits.
The 2017 offense was full of sophomores at the skill positions: the quarterback, the top receiver, the and top four tailbacks. Most of the rest of the starting lineup was juniors. Since last year's unit was only bad instead of really bad, you could see them improve to something more middling.
A middling offense would have been great to pair with last year's defense, which was not as good as its reputation but was still good (39th in yards per lay allowed) and kept most games within reach. The problem is turnover, especially in the back. Three regular DBs from a fairly thin rotation graduated, including leading pass-defender JaMarcus King. Even if the front seven stays disruptive, teams like Mizzou, A&M, and Ole Miss could tear that secondary to shreds.
With what they have, South Carolina doesn't have enough of a ceiling for me to pick them for second in the East. Still, they at least look decent enough to ensure they finish in the top half of an unremarkable division.
Nobody in the country – even Dan Mullen, Jeremy Pruitt, and Chad Morris – might have benefited more from the plights of Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas than Barry Odom. When Missouri opened the season 1-5, Odom was in serious danger of losing his job. Like a lot of coaches in danger of losing their jobs do, Odom went on a postgame rant about how the Tigers were going to turn their season around.
Fortunately for him, a lot of bad teams were left on the schedule.
First were Idaho and Connecticut, whom Mizzou beat by a combined 87 points. Then came Florida, who the week prior fired Jim McElwain, and whom Mizzou beat by 29. A sputtering Tennessee came to Columbia the next week; they left with a 33-point loss and a vacancy at head coach. The Tigers blew out Vanderbilt to become bowl-eligible and narrowly beat Arkansas to finish the regular season on a six-game winning streak.
Just like that, Odom went from lame duck to inspirational leader.
A harder out-of-division schedule (Wyoming, Alabama, and Memphis replace Idaho, Auburn, and UConn) and possible improvement from Missouri's annual opponents makes replicating last season's bowl run harder. But it's not out of the question.
On offense, Mizzou has tons of experience. Quarterback Drew Lock is the biggest name, but he's got most of his receivers, all of his offensive line, and a couple of reliable tailbacks in Damarea Crockett and Larry Roundtree III. Even without star wideout J'Mon Moore, and even with Derek Dooley calling plays instead of Josh Heupel, this offense is as potent as they come.
The team's weaker side, the defense, has continuity everywhere except at end and at safety. At those positions were some of the Tigers' best defenders, including end Marcell Frazier, the team leader in both tackles for loss and pass breakups. Senior Terry Beckner, Jr. will need some help in the pass rush, and corners DeMarkus Acy and Adam Sparks need someone to bail them out in the secondary. Even if Mizzou looks alright in the middle, a weak pass defense could put them in a hole.
With a big offense and a below-average-to-bad defense, this is a neither particularly good nor particularly bad team. If Odom wins a couple more toss-up games than he loses, his Tigers could finish second or third in the East.
With a new quarterback and new players at the top of the depth chart at receiver, and a low-ceiling defense, Kentucky's best course to a successful season might be giving Benny Snell, Jr. the ball as much as possible and draining the clock. Snell ran for 1,333 yards and 19 touchdowns last year and is the Wildcats' most proven offensive weapon by far.
To keep opponents off balance, they need the new quarterback (redshirt sophomore Gunnar Hoak or junior college transfer Terry Wilson) and young receivers to pose any threat through the air.
Of UK's 12 leading tacklers last season, nine were juniors, which means this year's defense is full of seniors. That means tons of experience, but it also means there isn't a whole lot of room to grow despite all the continuity. So the 98th-ranked rush defense and 103rd-ranked pass defense (both by yards per attempt) are unlikely to get so much better this anything more than a roughly .500 team.
After fielding an upperclassman-heavy defense two years ago, Vanderbilt allowed the exact same number of yards per play (5.9, both times ranked in the 80s of the FBS) last year. Since Derek Mason became head coach, only once (2015) has Vandy ranked better than 74th by that statistic. You would think, therefore, that they have played basically the same every year.
However, advanced, opponent-adjusted rating systems like S&P+ or ESPN's Efficiency stat have thought better of the defense in the past: In 2016, they ranked the Commodores 40th and 38th respectively.
The 2017 season represented a significant step backwards that didn't appear in the raw numbers. They dropped 27 spots in S&P+ and 53 spots in Efficiency. They aren't immune to attrition.
After fielding another upperclassman-heavy defense last year, things might get worse. They have a full-time defensive coordinator now (it was previously Mason's job), so maybe the drop will be alleviated, but Vandy will rely on their offense to have a better than mediocre year.
That doesn't bode well. While fourth-year starting quarterback Kyle Shurmur gets back a good amount of his supporting cast – his whole offensive line, starting tight end Jared Pinkney, team yards per catch leader Kalija Lipscomb, and some reserve skill players – he also loses many of his favorite targets, and the run game was basically non existent last season. Shurmur can't do everything himself.
For Vandy to go bowling, they have to beat expectations. Considering that they're favorites in only three or four games (MTSU, Nevada, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee), I doubt they can do it.
To keep opponents off balance, they need the new quarterback (redshirt sophomore Gunnar Hoak or junior college transfer Terry Wilson) and young receivers to pose any threat through the air.
Of UK's 12 leading tacklers last season, nine were juniors, which means this year's defense is full of seniors. That means tons of experience, but it also means there isn't a whole lot of room to grow despite all the continuity. So the 98th-ranked rush defense and 103rd-ranked pass defense (both by yards per attempt) are unlikely to get so much better this anything more than a roughly .500 team.
After fielding an upperclassman-heavy defense two years ago, Vanderbilt allowed the exact same number of yards per play (5.9, both times ranked in the 80s of the FBS) last year. Since Derek Mason became head coach, only once (2015) has Vandy ranked better than 74th by that statistic. You would think, therefore, that they have played basically the same every year.
However, advanced, opponent-adjusted rating systems like S&P+ or ESPN's Efficiency stat have thought better of the defense in the past: In 2016, they ranked the Commodores 40th and 38th respectively.
The 2017 season represented a significant step backwards that didn't appear in the raw numbers. They dropped 27 spots in S&P+ and 53 spots in Efficiency. They aren't immune to attrition.
After fielding another upperclassman-heavy defense last year, things might get worse. They have a full-time defensive coordinator now (it was previously Mason's job), so maybe the drop will be alleviated, but Vandy will rely on their offense to have a better than mediocre year.
That doesn't bode well. While fourth-year starting quarterback Kyle Shurmur gets back a good amount of his supporting cast – his whole offensive line, starting tight end Jared Pinkney, team yards per catch leader Kalija Lipscomb, and some reserve skill players – he also loses many of his favorite targets, and the run game was basically non existent last season. Shurmur can't do everything himself.
For Vandy to go bowling, they have to beat expectations. Considering that they're favorites in only three or four games (MTSU, Nevada, Tennessee Tech, Tennessee), I doubt they can do it.
Tennessee comes off the worst season in program history with a new head coach plucked straight from the Saban tree, Jeremy Pruitt.
The hiring process was a well publicized debacle, and Pruitt only came to Knoxville after weeks of rumors, plane-tracking, protests, and the firing of athletic director John Currie. But theoretically, that circus won't affect what happens on Saturdays. So does that mean Tennessee is immediately back on track to play like Tennessee again?
No. The Vols are a long way from playing at even a top-25 level. The team probably gave up on Butch Jones (and the season) by the end of 2017, and that skews the results, but the results we have are not promising.
The UT offense was young and totally lost. "Led" by two quarterbacks (including a redshirt freshman), the passing game averaged the 104th-most yards per throw. Tailbacks John Kelly and Ty Chandler combined to average 4.2 yards per carry. Even with improvement through experience – and the arrival of grad transfer Keller Chryst from Stanford to likely start atquarterback – it's hard to see the Vols doing better than just getting out of the basement.
On the other side, it wasn't much better. Though the secondary held opponents to a respectable 7.0 yards per pass attempt, Tennessee had the 10th-worst rush defense in FBS by yards per carry. Losing the team's top two tacklers-for-loss, plus a couple of depth linebackers, doesn't help matters.
And then there's the schedule. East Tennessee State, UTEP, and Charlotte are inevitable blowout wins, but it's hard to find another game where the Vols are favored, even in the weaker East Division. West Virginia, Florida, and South Carolina are easily better. Missouri and Vanderbilt are closer but still better. Georgia will beat them, Auburn will throttle them, and Alabama will bury them.
Last season might have been the worst in program history, but it might somehow get even worse before it gets better.
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Up next: the last conference left to cover, the Big Ten.
Tons of credit for stats go to S&P+ creator and SB Nation writer Bill Connelly, whose advanced statistical profiles are invaluable for their detail. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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