Today, the wild and parity-ridden Big 12.
Big 12 Conference
Predicted standings:
1. Oklahoma (conference champions)
2. West Virginia
3. Oklahoma State
4. TCU
5. Texas
6. Texas Tech
7. Kansas State
6. Texas Tech
7. Kansas State
8. Iowa State
9. Baylor
10. Kansas
Somehow, losing a Heisman-winning quarterback, one of the best tight ends in college football, one of the most versatile weapons in college football, and some of their best defensive playmakers doesn't knock Oklahoma from their spot as Big 12 frontrunners.
Before we get back to the holes, let's go over what's here.
Though the offensive line's best two performers, Orlando Brown and Eric Wren, there's enough experience and ability along the line of scrimmage to not fall off much. Five players have at least half a season's worth of starts on their ledgers, including a pair of second-team all-conference selections last year in Ben Powers and Dru Samia.
The offensive skill positions look alright as well, at least at the top of the depth chart. Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb led Sooner wideouts last season in touchdowns (seven each) and yards, with Brown first on the whole team in the latter. Rodney Anderson is maybe the Big 12's best tailback, and he's got a great backup in Trey Sermon.
There's also a functioning defensive line here despite losing D.J. Ward and rush end Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Those are the only two major departures; many regulars last season were regulars. Kenneth Mann has yet to show he can approach Okoronkwo's production, but he is disruptive from the outside.
And the second and third levels have a few playmakers in linebacker Kenneth Murray (Co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year) and corners Parnell Motley and Tre Norwood (17 pass breakups between them). Jordan Parker missed almost all of 2017 but was good as a freshman the year before, and Kahlil Haughton was a relatively reliable part-time starter between safety and nickel, so there's at least some experience starting in the secondary.
Those holes I mentioned earlier are hard to ignore though.
Kyler Murray could be a fine starting quarterback. He won't be Baker Mayfield, and OU probably won't have the country's best offense as a result.
After Brown and Lamb, Murray's targets are mostly underclassmen with little to no playing experience. H-back Dimitri Flowers and tight ends Mark Andrews were huge assets for the past two years; Flowers was a great blocker, runner, and receiver, and Andrews was Mayfield's favorite target. Blue-chip talent can alleviate whatever decline in production this receiving group has, but it can't totally prevent that decline.
Linebacker and defensive back depth looks dire. Other than Murray and Caleb Kelly, no starting linebacker returns, and only five other linebackers played last season. None of those five made even ten tackles. The secondary is littered with underclassmen, and a lot of them will likely have to see the field. As with receiver, these two position groups cannot get by just on recruiting pedigree.
Oklahoma made the Playoff last year because their offense was good enough to make up for a bad defense. (Yes, I do mean bad – 80th in yards per play allowed.) The defense could get worse, and the offense probably will too.
It's reasonable to say there's enough here to win the Big 12 comfortably. Nobody else in the conference has OU's ceiling this season. And the non-conference schedule is generous enough (beat FAU in Week 1, and they should be fine) that a one-loss conference title run could actually push them back into the Playoff. But if the Sooners get there, they won't last long.
The next eight – yes, eight – spots could go in almost any combination of ways.
Before we get back to the holes, let's go over what's here.
Though the offensive line's best two performers, Orlando Brown and Eric Wren, there's enough experience and ability along the line of scrimmage to not fall off much. Five players have at least half a season's worth of starts on their ledgers, including a pair of second-team all-conference selections last year in Ben Powers and Dru Samia.
The offensive skill positions look alright as well, at least at the top of the depth chart. Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb led Sooner wideouts last season in touchdowns (seven each) and yards, with Brown first on the whole team in the latter. Rodney Anderson is maybe the Big 12's best tailback, and he's got a great backup in Trey Sermon.
There's also a functioning defensive line here despite losing D.J. Ward and rush end Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. Those are the only two major departures; many regulars last season were regulars. Kenneth Mann has yet to show he can approach Okoronkwo's production, but he is disruptive from the outside.
And the second and third levels have a few playmakers in linebacker Kenneth Murray (Co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year) and corners Parnell Motley and Tre Norwood (17 pass breakups between them). Jordan Parker missed almost all of 2017 but was good as a freshman the year before, and Kahlil Haughton was a relatively reliable part-time starter between safety and nickel, so there's at least some experience starting in the secondary.
Those holes I mentioned earlier are hard to ignore though.
Kyler Murray could be a fine starting quarterback. He won't be Baker Mayfield, and OU probably won't have the country's best offense as a result.
After Brown and Lamb, Murray's targets are mostly underclassmen with little to no playing experience. H-back Dimitri Flowers and tight ends Mark Andrews were huge assets for the past two years; Flowers was a great blocker, runner, and receiver, and Andrews was Mayfield's favorite target. Blue-chip talent can alleviate whatever decline in production this receiving group has, but it can't totally prevent that decline.
Linebacker and defensive back depth looks dire. Other than Murray and Caleb Kelly, no starting linebacker returns, and only five other linebackers played last season. None of those five made even ten tackles. The secondary is littered with underclassmen, and a lot of them will likely have to see the field. As with receiver, these two position groups cannot get by just on recruiting pedigree.
Oklahoma made the Playoff last year because their offense was good enough to make up for a bad defense. (Yes, I do mean bad – 80th in yards per play allowed.) The defense could get worse, and the offense probably will too.
It's reasonable to say there's enough here to win the Big 12 comfortably. Nobody else in the conference has OU's ceiling this season. And the non-conference schedule is generous enough (beat FAU in Week 1, and they should be fine) that a one-loss conference title run could actually push them back into the Playoff. But if the Sooners get there, they won't last long.
The next eight – yes, eight – spots could go in almost any combination of ways.
West Virginia is getting plenty of buzz for their star power and senior-heavy roster, and it seems warranted... to a point. The Mountaineers could be a top-25 team almost as easily as they could be merely okay again.
Most excitement is for offensive continuity. Will Grier, when healthy, was one of the country's best quarterbacks, completing 64.4 percent of his passes and throwing 34 touchdowns. Grier and his backup had four targets he used near-exclusively (among wide receivers and tight ends, they were the targets on 93.9 percent of throws), and three are back: team receptions leader Gary Jennings, national touchdowns leader David Sills V, and team yards per catch leader Marcus Simms.
On top of that, four of five starting linemen return. While West Virginia hardly tried to have a run game, probably both because of Dana Holgorsen's Air Raid background and because they didn't have a lot of success running when they tried. Maybe an experienced line will help matters and give a second dimension to a talented but pass-first attack.
The issue, however, is depth: After Jennings, Sills, and Simms, there is no returning receiver with more than six catches (unless you count tailback Kennedy McKoy). In Grier's absence, the offense was abysmal last season; now that Chris Chugonov has transferred, there's no trustworthy backup. McKoy is the only running back with both reps and decent stats under his belt. At every skill position, the Mountaineers could have significant problems if someone gets injured.
The defense is shakier.
First, the key playmakers: Will linebacker David Long, who made 15.5 tackles for loss and six pass breakups; strong safety Dravon Askew-Henry, who made plenty of tackles and takes over for second-team all-conference departure Kyzir White; and corner Hakeem Bailey, whose six pass breakups ties Long for most among those returning. They are all talented enough to play for any team in the conference.
The issue again lies once you go look deeper. There are bodies at safety, but the other positions are sparse. The projected starting nose tackle hasn't started once, and both the starter and backup at strong-side linebacker haven't played a game between them.
Six projected starters have half a season's worth of starting experience or less, and only three have 13 starts or more. The team's leading linebacker and three best defensive backs are gone. The relative inexperience here is not killer, as a good number of other regulars are back, but it leaves little to no room for improvement on an already subpar unit.
So in other words, WVU has to win shootouts. They certainly can do that with their first 11, but they need as many of those 11 as possible to stay on the field to do so. It's a potentially dangerous situation that makes the Mountaineers a second-place team at best and capable of a tumble down the conference standings if they're unlucky.
Last year's Oklahoma State team was supposed to be the best in years, and the Cowboys finished with the exact same record as they did the year before – and two of the three years before.
It ended up being more of the same in Stillwater, which is still better than it's ever been: The Cowboys are in the middle of an 11-year streak of winning seasons, almost twice as long as the previous longest streak. Since 2009, they have finished worse than third in the conference (or their division) just twice. If any program has earned benefit of the doubt, it's this one.
With stars like Mason Rudolph and James Washington gone, the Pokes will probably not have the elite offense they once did. They'll just have to settle for really good.
Oklahoma State has a two-time all-conference running back in Justice Hill (plus talented backups) and a talented receiving corps headlined by Jalen McCleskey, Dillon Stoner, and Tyron Johnson (plus their top incoming recruit, C.J. Moore). Two starting linemen who made all-conference last year are gone, but three more with starting experience are still here. That's the beginning of a strong offense.
As for replacing Rudolph: Senior Taylor Cornelius looks like the frontrunner, but Hawai'i graduate transfer Dru Brown offers two years of starting snaps and decent stats. In reserve are a couple former blue-chippers, including Ryan product Spencer Sanders, the country's eighth-ranked dual-threat quarterback prospect last Signing Day. There are plenty of appealing options at the position. Considering Mike Gundy's track record with quarterbacks, you have to figure that whoever wins the job will do a good enough job.
Defensively, the Cowboys' strength will be up front. The Oklahoma State defense was 23rd-best in FBS by yards per carry allowed, and they return enough to repeat that. Five linemen come back with 4.5 or more tackles for loss, and an extra two come in from junior colleges. The linebackers could use depth, but Justin Phillips and Calvin Bundage (combined 15 tackles for loss; Phillips adds four passes defensed and three forced fumbles) are two strong starters.
The secondary is weaker. There are a couple of talented corners in A.J. Green (four interceptions) and Rodarius Williams (ten pass breakups), but there's nobody with experience behind them on the depth chart. At safety, sophomore Thabo Mwaniki will presumably start, but the other players expected to play are young and inexperienced. The pass defense could pose a significant problem, especially if Green or Williams goes down injured. There isn't a worse conference to be in when you have secondary issues.
This isn't an excellent team, per se, it's one with a high floor. Maybe it'll be more of the same again in Stillwater, which will still be better than it's ever been.
TCU, the Big 12's most balanced team, must also survive significant turnover to make it to Arlington.
First, the subtractions that probably won't matter much: receivers John Diarse and Desmon White, and tailback Kyle Hicks.
TCU's offense, like most that throw so frequently, keep their receiving corps essentially attrition-proof by cycling through personnel and evenly distributing the ball. The difference between Diarse, who led the team in targets, and KaVontae Turpin, who was fourth, was 12 throws. Counting Turpin, five wideouts return who got a dozen or more targets last season. Four-star signing Tevailance Hunt could add to a deep group of receivers.
And in the case of Hicks, the running back position seems fine with Darius Anderson getting carries. Though Anderson had 11 fewer attempts than Hicks, he ran for 131 more yards and twice as many touchdowns. Sewo Olonilua has averaged 5.7 yards per carry in two years of limited work and should remain a productive backup.
Problems may lie at the two most important offensive positions. Four starting linemen graduated, including all-Big 12 second-teamer Matt Pryor. Those gone averaged almost 24 career starts; those still here total 26. Gary Patterson added four-star junior college tackle Anthony McKinney in hopes he can help, but there's still reason to doubt how well this line will do. The situation is not desperate, but it is disconcerting.
The quarterback will likely be Kenny Hill's former backup, true sophomore Shawn Robinson. Robinson, a former four-star who won a state championship at powerhouse DeSoto (and played well at Guyer before that), has the pedigree, but in his first tastes of college action, the results were mixed. He carried the ball 22 times for 169 non-sack yards – evidence he can run like Hill. Throwing was a trickier proposition, as he completed fewer than half his passes and averaged more than a yard less per attempt than Hill. Of course, that was over 27 passes, 17 of which were in a windy Lubbock. It's hard to derive anything from Robinson's stats.
For that reason, it's as easy to doubt Robinson as it is to extol him as the next great Frogs quarterback because he was good in high school. We just don't know yet. True freshman Justin Rogers (the 43rd-best prospect in his class; Robinson was 198th the previous year) could usurp Robinson if he struggles.
Regardless of who plays, quarterback could determine how exactly TCU fares in the Big 12.
The Frogs should at least finish in the top half on the strength of their defense. Patterson has always fielded great defenses, and despite plenty of graduations, he should again in 2018.
Against TCU last season, opposing offenses were extremely boom-or-bust: By Football Outsiders' Success Rate stat (a measure of efficiency), TCU was sixth-best in FBS. By Bill Connelly's Isolated Points per Play (a measure of explosiveness), TCU was third-worst. Because of their ability to stifle the opposition after minimal gains, it worked out in the long run. The Frogs were seventh in yards per carry allowed, 13th in completion rate, and 33rd in overall yards per play.
Repeating (if not improving upon) that performance doesn't look terribly difficult. Although five starters are gone, most of the regulars stuck around.
The only position that doesn't get back at least a couple of starter-worthy players is cornerback, where Ranthony Texada (23 passes defensed over the past two seasons) doesn't have an heir apparent. The pass rush (led by eight-and-a-half-sack end Ben Banogu), the linebackers (with eight-TFL, five-pass-breakup Ty Summers in the middle), and the safeties (four of whose five leading tacklers are back) are all in good shape.
TCU is in good shape overall too. Find a quarterback, and this should be another strong ceiling in Crazy Fort Worth.
I keep waiting for Texas to finally jump from above-average at best to at least good, but somehow, all the talent the Longhorns have accumulated hasn't yet translated into significant success. It will happen, surely, but probably not yet.
Texas' strength last season was its defense. While the Longhorns allowed a lot of yards per completion, they didn't allow many completions, and their run defense was one of the nation's best: Just five teams allowed fewer yards per carry.
The defense should remain their strength. Some important players leave, like safety DeShon Elliott, tackle Poona Ford, and linebacker Malik Jefferson, but most are still here. Breckyn Hager and Charles Omenihu still make an excellent pass rushing duo, even if their influence is less in Todd Orlando's 3-3-5 than it was when they arrived. Gary Johnson and Anthony Wheeler are solid linebackers. Kris Boyd is arguably the conference's best cornerback, and Davante Davis and P.J. Locke III can help lead the secondary.
The starting lineup might take a major step back next year, as so many members are seniors this season, but right now, this is one of the conference's top defenses, if not the best outright.
The issue, however, is on the other side.
As great as the Longhorns' run defense was, their run offense was almost as bad: They averaged 3.6 yards per carry, putting them in the bottom fifth of FBS. Four running backs had more than 50 carries, but quarterback Sam Ehlinger led the team in rushing with just 381 yards – and that's including his 11 sacks.
The passing game was better but not by much. Texas was one of only two teams in the Big 12 to rank in the bottom half of FBS in yards per attempt. (The other, of course, was Kansas.)
Ehlinger was sacked less often and gained more yards (with both legs and arms) than Week 1 starter Shane Buechele, but Buechele completed more passes and held onto the ball: Buechele fumbled less than a third as often as Ehlinger (1.6 percent of carries to Ehlinger's 6.1 percent), and he threw fewer interceptions (1.9 percent of throws to Ehlinger's 2.5 percent). Neither took control, splitting duties almost 50-50.
The good news is that experience leads to improvement, especially when you have so many former blue-chip recruits. While a few linemen graduated (including second-round pick Connor Williams), injuries meant plenty of others saw the field. Maybe that takes the run game from horrific to bad. Maybe familiarity with Tim Beck's system makes the players more comfortable. And maybe somebody claims the quarterback position.
Of course, the ceiling on that improvement is limited. The offense was flat-out bad just last year, after all. And the receiving corps looks barren apart from starters Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Collin Johnson, and former Guyer quarterback Jerrod Heard. Maybe there isn't enough here right now.
If Texas finally takes that step, they likely will not in 2018. But they might, and for that reason, they shouldn't be totally eliminated from conference title game contention.
(A side note: If we ever get an Oklahoma-Texas Big 12 Championship, it needs to be at the Cotton Bowl instead of the Death Star.)
After years and years and years of waiting for Texas Tech to finally have a passable defense, we finally got one last season. Just as the offense took a dip after losing maybe the best quarterback in program history. Funny how that works out sometimes.
But David Gibbs has done a remarkable job as defensive coordinator. As was covered ad nauseum during the Tommy Tuberville and early Kliff Kingsbury years, the DC position turned over only a little less often than tortillas landed in the end zone at Jones Stadium.
From 2010 until Gibbs' arrival in 2015, five men held the position, switching from 4-3 to 3-4 to 4-2-5 to 4-3 again to "multiple," and as a result, the defense was a total mess because there was no such thing as continuity. Just by being competent enough to hold down the job for three (going on four) years makes Gibbs the best coordinator Tech has had this decade.
Last season, the defense was at its best since Ruffin McNeill coached it, and it will be even better this season. Tech retains more of last year's defensive production than just about anyone, as all but one player with 12 or more tackles is still on the roster. That includes three second-team all-conference players: linebacker Dakota Allen (80 tackles and six passes defensed), safety Jah'Shawn Johnson (82.5 tackles, best on the team), and nickel Justus Parker (four picks and four pass breakups).
If this level of optimism seems extreme for a unit that was just mediocre (75th in yards per play allowed) last season, I don't think it is. Kingsbury always fields good offenses but has never before had a tolerable defense. Under Mike Leach, Tech's best teams did have tolerable – and in 2008 and 2009, above-average – defenses. The experience on this year's team could take that defense to an above-average level. That's a massive development.
It's especially important because we saw last year that those offenses aren't always perfect.
Nic Shimonek was an adequate but inconsistent quarterback with great receivers, a young but not terrible set of blockers, and an explosive running back in Justin Stockton. The result was an offense in the 20s (points per game, S&P+, ESPN's efficiency stat,), or 30s (yards per play, FEI) of FBS, depending on your metric, which was certainly good but well short of the previous couple of years. It's natural to expect some regression after Patrick Mahomes' departure, but last year was still a little disappointing.
This season could represent another step back, even slightly.
The most whole position group is the offensive line, which could be solid after getting back all six players who started a game last year, all but one of whom started 10 or more games. A couple injuries could test the reserves, but the starting lineup should be sturdy.
The skill positions are more up in the air. Redshirt sophomore T.J. Vasher is the top receiver coming back, and while he did a lot with the ball when he had it, his catch rate was worst on the team. J'Deion High and Antoine Wesley were alright but didn't receive that many targets. Four-star true freshman Erik Ezukanma could play some role, but he's obviously unproven. This receiving group probably won't match the production of Keke Coutee, Dylan Cantrell, and Cameron Batson.
At running back, Tre King was Stockton's backup. Coming out of spring camp, Tech listed him as backup again, this time to Da'Leon Ward, who redshirted in 2017 but led the team in rushing the year prior. Throw in Demarcus Felton, and you have an experienced running back trio. It's just not an unimpressive one; the three averaged 4.7 yards per carry over the last two seasons, which is barely better than average. The line will determine how good this rushing attack is.
And then there's quarterback. McLane Carter probably has the advantage in this competition, having started against Texas last November, but he didn't exactly wow anyone with that performance: 16 of 37 for 237 yards and two interceptions. Some extra reps here and there got his season completion rate up to 50 percent, but that's never a good thing to say about your potential starter.
Jett Duffey was well regarded as a recruit but in two years has as many suspensions as pass attempts (two). Alan Bowman, a three-star early enrollee from Grapevine, is also in the race but only has spring and fall camps under his belt.
There's not a very appealing option to take over. Kingsbury is renowned for his record with quarterbacks, so perhaps a decent starter will emerge. But this will be a major test.
Having finally got himself a defense, it's up to Kingsbury's offensive expertise to save his job. If the offense works itself out, the Red Raiders can win eight games, which would be their best season since his debut. If Carter (or whoever lines up behind center) struggles, if the receiving corps isn't deep enough, or if injuries wreck the O-line, then it will be up to Gibbs' defense to salvage another mediocre at best season.
Because I'm a Tech homer, and because I think Kingsbury can put together an above-average passing attack even when facing difficult circumstances, I lean towards optimism.
We know exactly what Kansas State is, which is to say that in a given season, we often have little idea what Kansas State is. We can usually guess that the Wildcats finish with between five and ten wins, but that is obviously a wide range of outcomes.
Pieces are in place on offense to hit that ceiling. Last year, K-State wasn't that great, but ranking 41st in yards per play is pretty good.
Most of that production came on the ground. The Wildcats averaged almost twice as many runs per game as passes, and they were much better at the former. Tailback Alex Barnes ran for 5.6 yards per carry and seven touchdowns, and their three quarterbacks ran for 5.8 non-sack yards per carry and eight touchdowns. With all five blockers back for 2018, this could be a potent rushing attack.
The aerial attack is a possible concern. One of Alex Delton or Skylar Thompson will start at quarterback; Delton avoided the rush better and threw for bigger gains, but Thompson was more accurate, and both were adept runners. We didn't get a good look at either, so we don't have a lot of information off of which to go. Without a deep receiving corps (half the frequently targeted wideouts are gone), these inexperienced quarterbacks won't have much of a safety net.
But because of that run game, I think K-State has at least some way to move the ball.
The defense last year had a pretty similar profile: Good against the run, below-average against the pass – although worse as a whole, ranking in the bottom half of FBS. That suggests something closer to the floor.
Expect secondary improvement, as many regular DBs were sophomores and juniors last season, including corner Duke Shelley, who led in pass breakups. Continuity is important in the back, so keeping mostly the same personnel is big. And though he's a new defensive coordinator, Blake Seiler played for Bill Snyder and is entering his tenth year on Snyder's staff, so the same system is in place.
The run defense will worsen, however, after losing the top two linebackers on the team and two regular linemen. Enough linemen got reps last season that that group won't hurt too much, but only one returning linebacker made more than five tackles for K-State last season. Snyder found a couple of junior college signees and an inexperienced transfer from Virginia to help out, but there's a dearth of proven playmakers in the box.
If Delton or Thompson finds a groove, the defense steps up, and Snyder once again gets some breaks, then Kansas State can threaten for second place in the conference. But I must admit I likely only consider this possibility because of perception bias: If this were any other program under any other coach, then I'd say this season has "seven or eight wins" written all over it – an acceptable middle ground between ceiling and floor.
It looks like Matt Campbell is building something at Iowa State, and this season should be at least respectable again.
The offense is in decent shape: While three of the Cyclones' best receivers (including the record-holding Allen Lazard) and a pair of linemen (including second-team all-conference tackle Jacob Campos) are gone, those are the only significant departures. The NCAA granted reliable quarterback Kyle Kempt a sixth year of eligibility; four linemen with starts on their ledgers come back; six-foot-six, second-place receiver Hakeem Butler is one of three wideouts who are still around; and in Mike Warren and David Montgomery, Iowa State has a pair of tailbacks who put up good numbers two seasons ago.
That's a passable starting lineup if the line improves a little with experience and allows Warren and Montgomery to run. But the offense could be in trouble if a couple of injuries force underclassmen into the lineup.
That being said, last year, Iowa State succeeded despite a mediocre offense because of a solid defense. Repeating that may be difficult, but it's not impossible.
A couple of the team's best run-stuffers (Joel Lanning and J.D. Waggoner combined for 24.5 TFLs) graduated, but three more (Marcel Spears, Jr., Willie Harvey, and JaQuan Bailey combined for 31). This top-thirty rush defense should stay one.
Iowa State's pass defense was a problem last season, however. The Cyclones allowed 10.7 yards per completion, which is fine, but with that came the fifth-highest completion percentage in FBS. When opponents passed – and they usually did – they mostly moved the ball pretty well. Three starting defensive backs need replacing too, so it might not get any better.
With some breaks, another 8-5 year is within reach. I expect a middling record.
The offense is in decent shape: While three of the Cyclones' best receivers (including the record-holding Allen Lazard) and a pair of linemen (including second-team all-conference tackle Jacob Campos) are gone, those are the only significant departures. The NCAA granted reliable quarterback Kyle Kempt a sixth year of eligibility; four linemen with starts on their ledgers come back; six-foot-six, second-place receiver Hakeem Butler is one of three wideouts who are still around; and in Mike Warren and David Montgomery, Iowa State has a pair of tailbacks who put up good numbers two seasons ago.
That's a passable starting lineup if the line improves a little with experience and allows Warren and Montgomery to run. But the offense could be in trouble if a couple of injuries force underclassmen into the lineup.
That being said, last year, Iowa State succeeded despite a mediocre offense because of a solid defense. Repeating that may be difficult, but it's not impossible.
A couple of the team's best run-stuffers (Joel Lanning and J.D. Waggoner combined for 24.5 TFLs) graduated, but three more (Marcel Spears, Jr., Willie Harvey, and JaQuan Bailey combined for 31). This top-thirty rush defense should stay one.
Iowa State's pass defense was a problem last season, however. The Cyclones allowed 10.7 yards per completion, which is fine, but with that came the fifth-highest completion percentage in FBS. When opponents passed – and they usually did – they mostly moved the ball pretty well. Three starting defensive backs need replacing too, so it might not get any better.
With some breaks, another 8-5 year is within reach. I expect a middling record.
Baylor's 2017 was nothing short of disastrous: A Week 1 loss to FCS Liberty, a Week 2 loss to rebuilding UTSA from Conference-USA, and then nine more losses that ranged from near-upsets (Oklahoma, West Virginia) to blowouts (Oklahoma State, Texas). The lone highlight was a 29-point win over Kansas.
That's what it looks like in the first year of playing a young roster. The second year, however, often has great potential.
Along the offensive line, one full-time starter departs, leaving six players with starting experience. Behind them are a trio of experienced running backs (JaMycal Hasty, Tristan Ebner, John Lovett) who were solid recruits, and a quarterback (Charlie Brewer) who as a true freshman posted one of one of the subdivision's best completion percentages after taking the starting job down the stretch. Brewer throws to seven of the eight wideouts who were targeted ten or more times last season, including top target Denzel Mims.
(Blake Lynch, one of those eight, is listed as a starting safety. Lynch played both positions last year and could do so again, but I'm unsure whether his increased defensive role will reduce or eliminate his offensive snaps.)
Depth at the skill positions, experience on the line, and a talented quarterback? Those are the makings of a potentially excellent offense.
If you want to pump the brakes, you can point to Baylor's 84th-ranked offense by yards per play last season and wonder how good this unit can be in 2018. But with so much coming back, it will improve significantly.
The defense gets back a little less and is worse, but it could become decent. There are a handful of disruptors in tackle Ira Lewis, linebacker Clay Johnston, and corners Harrison Hand and Grayland Arnold. There are plenty of linebackers and extra defensive backs who got playing time as underclassmen too, as well as experienced linemen. There's definitely depth at all three levels. That's a starting point.
Whether all this talent will pay off in 2018 is uncertain, but there's enough to leap up the Big 12 standings if things go right.
That's what it looks like in the first year of playing a young roster. The second year, however, often has great potential.
Along the offensive line, one full-time starter departs, leaving six players with starting experience. Behind them are a trio of experienced running backs (JaMycal Hasty, Tristan Ebner, John Lovett) who were solid recruits, and a quarterback (Charlie Brewer) who as a true freshman posted one of one of the subdivision's best completion percentages after taking the starting job down the stretch. Brewer throws to seven of the eight wideouts who were targeted ten or more times last season, including top target Denzel Mims.
(Blake Lynch, one of those eight, is listed as a starting safety. Lynch played both positions last year and could do so again, but I'm unsure whether his increased defensive role will reduce or eliminate his offensive snaps.)
Depth at the skill positions, experience on the line, and a talented quarterback? Those are the makings of a potentially excellent offense.
If you want to pump the brakes, you can point to Baylor's 84th-ranked offense by yards per play last season and wonder how good this unit can be in 2018. But with so much coming back, it will improve significantly.
The defense gets back a little less and is worse, but it could become decent. There are a handful of disruptors in tackle Ira Lewis, linebacker Clay Johnston, and corners Harrison Hand and Grayland Arnold. There are plenty of linebackers and extra defensive backs who got playing time as underclassmen too, as well as experienced linemen. There's definitely depth at all three levels. That's a starting point.
Whether all this talent will pay off in 2018 is uncertain, but there's enough to leap up the Big 12 standings if things go right.
I will offer this positive remark about Kansas: Almost nobody in FBS returns as much from last year's team. That should mean some kind of improvement.
Of course, we've also waited this whole decade for some kind of improvement.
Since firing Mark Mangino, the Jayhawks have not had a four-win season. If you count interim coach Clint Bowen, they have had more head coaches (four) than three-win seasons (three). They have won four conference games – the last of which to happen on the road was in Ames on October 4, 2008, when five current members of FBS did not have football programs.
This program is for what the word "destitute" was meant.
Last season, KU posted another one-win season. That one win: 38-16 in Week 1 against Southeast Missouri State, whose record against other (all FCS) opponents was 3-7.
For David Beaty to keep his job, he probably needs at least four wins. The four best opportunities for wins open the season, against Nicholls State, Central Michigan, Rutgers, and Baylor. I'm willing to call the Jayhawks favorites against Nicholls State alone, and I'd even say they're susceptible to complete destruction in Waco. In other words, Beaty is done, but the school gave him an extra year to waste instead of hiring someone else.
This will be another hopeless season for a hopeless program.
Of course, we've also waited this whole decade for some kind of improvement.
Since firing Mark Mangino, the Jayhawks have not had a four-win season. If you count interim coach Clint Bowen, they have had more head coaches (four) than three-win seasons (three). They have won four conference games – the last of which to happen on the road was in Ames on October 4, 2008, when five current members of FBS did not have football programs.
This program is for what the word "destitute" was meant.
Last season, KU posted another one-win season. That one win: 38-16 in Week 1 against Southeast Missouri State, whose record against other (all FCS) opponents was 3-7.
For David Beaty to keep his job, he probably needs at least four wins. The four best opportunities for wins open the season, against Nicholls State, Central Michigan, Rutgers, and Baylor. I'm willing to call the Jayhawks favorites against Nicholls State alone, and I'd even say they're susceptible to complete destruction in Waco. In other words, Beaty is done, but the school gave him an extra year to waste instead of hiring someone else.
This will be another hopeless season for a hopeless program.
* * *
Up next: the ACC.
Tons of credit for stats go to S&P+ creator and SB Nation writer Bill Connelly, whose advanced statistical profiles are invaluable for their detail. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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