Today, we delve into maybe the deepest conference in college football, the ACC.
Atlantic Coast Conference
Atlantic
Predicted standings:
1. Clemson (conference champions)
2. Wake Forest
3. Florida State
4. Louisville
5. NC State
4. Louisville
5. NC State
6. Boston College
7. Syracuse
The Atlantic Division, and probably the whole conference, belongs to Clemson.
We thought last year would represent a slight step back after losing Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, Jordan Leggett, Carlos Watkins, and more from their national title-winning 2016 season. We thought Clemson would take a quick break from being one of the country's best teams.
Instead, for the third straight year, the Tigers won the ACC championship and made the Playoff. They couldn't beat Bama, but that's hardly a mark of shame. This was one of the nation's elite teams.
Of course, there is no illusion of a potential step back in 2018.
Clemson boasts arguably the country's best defense, led by a quartet of soon-to-be NFLers on the line who combined for 45 tackles for loss (25 sacks) last season. Running into the wall of 300-pound Christian Wilkins and 340-pound Dexter Lawrence is folly.
Throwing over the stacked D-line won't be a whole lot easier. If you avoid the pass rush, you have to deal with experience in the second and third levels. The linebackers lose just one regular from last season, leaving six players with at least 15 tackles. The secondary loses its two best players (safety Van Smith and corner Ryan Carter) but is probably still one of the best in country; last year's pass defense allowed the 12th-lowest completion percentage and fourth-fewest yards per attempt in FBS. Falling from that perch will take more than two departures.
The Tigers' solid offense also has to deal with just two major departures (wideouts Deon Cain and Ray-Ray McCloud) and is due for improvement. An experienced line, a good dual-threat quarterback (Kelly Bryant), two running backs (Travis Etienne, Tavien Feaster) who each averaged more than six yards per carry, and a receiving group led by perennial star Hunter Renfroe and featuring plenty of blue-chip talent – that's a formidable lineup. It may not be the top offense in the country, but it could be one of the 10 to 15 best.
Clemson is the prohibitive favorite in the ACC and probably bound for yet another Playoff appearance. With this roster, the Tigers don't need a whole lot of luck to win another national championship.
While you weren't watching, Dave Clawson turned Wake Forest into a pretty good team. Under Clawson, the Demon Deacons have posted their first consecutive winning seasons in ten years, and last season, they finished third in the Atlantic.
Last year's team suffered a drop-off in defensive production after a few big departures. Though five starters (totaling 53 tackles for loss) departed, there is enough talent for the Wake defense to at least stay an average unit, if not improve to a pre-2017 level.
The best part of Wake's defense is their secondary, which lost strong safety Jessie Bates to the NFL but returns its other three starters and all four backups. Continuity leads to improvement, and that could mean an excellent pass defense: Last season, Wake allowed the 30th-fewest yards per pass attempt. This season, they could break into the top 15 or higher. Corners Essang Bassey and Amari Henderson (combined 100 tackles and 33 passes defensed) are the playmakers to watch.
The front seven wasn't as good and suffers more turnover, but it's not in bad shape. Plenty of players rotated through the line, and the backup linebackers received significant playing time. Last season's fresh depth is this year's experienced set of regulars. The biggest question mark is at end, as there's not an apparent successor to leading pass rusher Duke Ejiofor. The other positions should be in good enough shape.
Meanwhile, there's only one question facing a previously strong offense: Can they replace quarterback John Wolford? With Wolford, Wake had one of the nation's top passing attacks; as a senior, he threw for 29 touchdowns and averaged 8.0 yards per attempt.
With every starting lineman, every regular passing target (except tight end Cam Serigne), and the reliable Matt Colburn II-Arkeem Byrd rushing duo back for 2018, expected starter Kendall Hinton will have everything he needs to settle in. If Hinton is just okay, this will remain a potent offense.
Wake Forest is coming off their best season in years, and it doesn't look like they're slowing down. They don't have the roster to threaten Clemson for the division title, but they could do even better.
I'll be brief with Florida State.
Injuries and a tumultuous relationship with Jimbo Fisher killed FSU's 2017. The Seminoles entered the year expected by many (including by me) to at least win the ACC, if not challenge for the Playoff, and they exited with a new head coach and a mediocre 7-6 record.
The good news is that, like always, there's lots and lots of talent. Mostly because of an easy back end of the schedule but also by raw ability (and maybe a little bit of wanting to preserve the program's winning-season streak), the young Noles won five of their last six games. This year's recruiting class was the program's second this decade to finish outside the national top ten; each time, it ranked 11th.
Faith in that talent determines how you feel about 2018. I'm inclined to think Florida State should stay a little below their usual standard because of colossal defensive turnover (including at coordinator), but most of the offense (with two solid quarterbacks from which to pick) comes back. There shouldn't be as many worries unrelated to football either.
It will probably be a totally acceptable but underwhelming first year for Willie Taggart, and he can prove he belongs at his dream job in time.
I'll be brief with Louisville too.
The defense took a major step backward last year, and it's likely to get even worse after losing key pieces of the linebacker corps and secondary. Against the potentially dangerous passing games of the Atlantic, the Cardinals might get torched.
In order to keep up, then, Louisville needs their offense to be excellent again. With three talented receivers (Seth Hawkins, Dez Fitzpatrick, Jaylen Smith), an experienced offensive line, and a couple of young running backs (Dae Williams, Trey Smith) who showed flashes of ability in backup duty last year, it might approach that.
But you cannot easily replace the best player in college football. Former Heisman winner Lamar Jackson's 1,759 yards tripled the output of the Cardinals' second-best runner, and he finished 12th in the country in yards per pass attempt. Though I'm sure sophomore Jawon Pass, a former four-star recruit, is a fine quarterback (albeit one with six career appearances), it goes without saying he won't compare to Jackson.
The Louisville offense could definitely be good again, but it probably won't be one of the best in FBS. With a worse defense, they could finish with six or seven wins instead of their customary eight or nine.
How NC State survives the loss of top-end defensive talent will determine how much success they have this season. That side of the ball was basically average (69th in yards per play allowed) last year, but there is plenty to replace just to remain average.
The losses include disruptive DBs (26 passes defensed lost), two starting linebackers (including top tackler Jerod Fernandez), and all four starting linemen (20.5 TFLs lost – that is, before you count unanimous first-team All-American end Bradley Chubb's 25).
Five of the team's 14 leading tacklers remain, two of whom (safeties Jarius Morehead and Tim Kidd-Glass) regularly started. Throw in corner Nick McCloud, who broke up seven passes last year, and you have two-fifths of a first-team secondary. But no other returning DB notched even five tackles last season. Both the starters and the backups will be inexperienced. That could be a big problem.
The front six doesn't look a whole lot better. Darian Roseboro made seven tackles for loss and could make for another good pass rusher at one end spot; and weak-side linebacker Germaine Pratt finished fourth on the team in tackles as a backup. But the other positions are less sure. There are multiple 300-plus-pound behemoths who can fill in at tackle but are unproven. Even if NC State finds another end and another linebacker to start, the rest of the two-deep is disconcertingly inexperienced.
Some transfers, both from other FBS schools and from junior colleges, bolster the line and backfield, but I don't expect they will break the fall much. It's not out of question that the defense craters.
NC State has a good enough offense, led by one of the conference's best quarterbacks in Ryan Finley, to score with ease against most opponents. But the defense will cost the Wolfpack in the standings.
We thought last year would represent a slight step back after losing Deshaun Watson, Mike Williams, Jordan Leggett, Carlos Watkins, and more from their national title-winning 2016 season. We thought Clemson would take a quick break from being one of the country's best teams.
Instead, for the third straight year, the Tigers won the ACC championship and made the Playoff. They couldn't beat Bama, but that's hardly a mark of shame. This was one of the nation's elite teams.
Of course, there is no illusion of a potential step back in 2018.
Clemson boasts arguably the country's best defense, led by a quartet of soon-to-be NFLers on the line who combined for 45 tackles for loss (25 sacks) last season. Running into the wall of 300-pound Christian Wilkins and 340-pound Dexter Lawrence is folly.
Throwing over the stacked D-line won't be a whole lot easier. If you avoid the pass rush, you have to deal with experience in the second and third levels. The linebackers lose just one regular from last season, leaving six players with at least 15 tackles. The secondary loses its two best players (safety Van Smith and corner Ryan Carter) but is probably still one of the best in country; last year's pass defense allowed the 12th-lowest completion percentage and fourth-fewest yards per attempt in FBS. Falling from that perch will take more than two departures.
The Tigers' solid offense also has to deal with just two major departures (wideouts Deon Cain and Ray-Ray McCloud) and is due for improvement. An experienced line, a good dual-threat quarterback (Kelly Bryant), two running backs (Travis Etienne, Tavien Feaster) who each averaged more than six yards per carry, and a receiving group led by perennial star Hunter Renfroe and featuring plenty of blue-chip talent – that's a formidable lineup. It may not be the top offense in the country, but it could be one of the 10 to 15 best.
Clemson is the prohibitive favorite in the ACC and probably bound for yet another Playoff appearance. With this roster, the Tigers don't need a whole lot of luck to win another national championship.
While you weren't watching, Dave Clawson turned Wake Forest into a pretty good team. Under Clawson, the Demon Deacons have posted their first consecutive winning seasons in ten years, and last season, they finished third in the Atlantic.
Last year's team suffered a drop-off in defensive production after a few big departures. Though five starters (totaling 53 tackles for loss) departed, there is enough talent for the Wake defense to at least stay an average unit, if not improve to a pre-2017 level.
The best part of Wake's defense is their secondary, which lost strong safety Jessie Bates to the NFL but returns its other three starters and all four backups. Continuity leads to improvement, and that could mean an excellent pass defense: Last season, Wake allowed the 30th-fewest yards per pass attempt. This season, they could break into the top 15 or higher. Corners Essang Bassey and Amari Henderson (combined 100 tackles and 33 passes defensed) are the playmakers to watch.
The front seven wasn't as good and suffers more turnover, but it's not in bad shape. Plenty of players rotated through the line, and the backup linebackers received significant playing time. Last season's fresh depth is this year's experienced set of regulars. The biggest question mark is at end, as there's not an apparent successor to leading pass rusher Duke Ejiofor. The other positions should be in good enough shape.
Meanwhile, there's only one question facing a previously strong offense: Can they replace quarterback John Wolford? With Wolford, Wake had one of the nation's top passing attacks; as a senior, he threw for 29 touchdowns and averaged 8.0 yards per attempt.
With every starting lineman, every regular passing target (except tight end Cam Serigne), and the reliable Matt Colburn II-Arkeem Byrd rushing duo back for 2018, expected starter Kendall Hinton will have everything he needs to settle in. If Hinton is just okay, this will remain a potent offense.
Wake Forest is coming off their best season in years, and it doesn't look like they're slowing down. They don't have the roster to threaten Clemson for the division title, but they could do even better.
I'll be brief with Florida State.
Injuries and a tumultuous relationship with Jimbo Fisher killed FSU's 2017. The Seminoles entered the year expected by many (including by me) to at least win the ACC, if not challenge for the Playoff, and they exited with a new head coach and a mediocre 7-6 record.
The good news is that, like always, there's lots and lots of talent. Mostly because of an easy back end of the schedule but also by raw ability (and maybe a little bit of wanting to preserve the program's winning-season streak), the young Noles won five of their last six games. This year's recruiting class was the program's second this decade to finish outside the national top ten; each time, it ranked 11th.
Faith in that talent determines how you feel about 2018. I'm inclined to think Florida State should stay a little below their usual standard because of colossal defensive turnover (including at coordinator), but most of the offense (with two solid quarterbacks from which to pick) comes back. There shouldn't be as many worries unrelated to football either.
It will probably be a totally acceptable but underwhelming first year for Willie Taggart, and he can prove he belongs at his dream job in time.
I'll be brief with Louisville too.
The defense took a major step backward last year, and it's likely to get even worse after losing key pieces of the linebacker corps and secondary. Against the potentially dangerous passing games of the Atlantic, the Cardinals might get torched.
In order to keep up, then, Louisville needs their offense to be excellent again. With three talented receivers (Seth Hawkins, Dez Fitzpatrick, Jaylen Smith), an experienced offensive line, and a couple of young running backs (Dae Williams, Trey Smith) who showed flashes of ability in backup duty last year, it might approach that.
But you cannot easily replace the best player in college football. Former Heisman winner Lamar Jackson's 1,759 yards tripled the output of the Cardinals' second-best runner, and he finished 12th in the country in yards per pass attempt. Though I'm sure sophomore Jawon Pass, a former four-star recruit, is a fine quarterback (albeit one with six career appearances), it goes without saying he won't compare to Jackson.
The Louisville offense could definitely be good again, but it probably won't be one of the best in FBS. With a worse defense, they could finish with six or seven wins instead of their customary eight or nine.
How NC State survives the loss of top-end defensive talent will determine how much success they have this season. That side of the ball was basically average (69th in yards per play allowed) last year, but there is plenty to replace just to remain average.
The losses include disruptive DBs (26 passes defensed lost), two starting linebackers (including top tackler Jerod Fernandez), and all four starting linemen (20.5 TFLs lost – that is, before you count unanimous first-team All-American end Bradley Chubb's 25).
Five of the team's 14 leading tacklers remain, two of whom (safeties Jarius Morehead and Tim Kidd-Glass) regularly started. Throw in corner Nick McCloud, who broke up seven passes last year, and you have two-fifths of a first-team secondary. But no other returning DB notched even five tackles last season. Both the starters and the backups will be inexperienced. That could be a big problem.
The front six doesn't look a whole lot better. Darian Roseboro made seven tackles for loss and could make for another good pass rusher at one end spot; and weak-side linebacker Germaine Pratt finished fourth on the team in tackles as a backup. But the other positions are less sure. There are multiple 300-plus-pound behemoths who can fill in at tackle but are unproven. Even if NC State finds another end and another linebacker to start, the rest of the two-deep is disconcertingly inexperienced.
Some transfers, both from other FBS schools and from junior colleges, bolster the line and backfield, but I don't expect they will break the fall much. It's not out of question that the defense craters.
NC State has a good enough offense, led by one of the conference's best quarterbacks in Ryan Finley, to score with ease against most opponents. But the defense will cost the Wolfpack in the standings.
Boston College has always had good defenses under Steve Addazio, but the offenses are often ugly. Since Addazio's second season, the defense's average rank by yards per play was 27.3 – peaking at first place in 2015. Over the same stretch, by the same statistic, the offenses' rank was 104.5 – hitting as low at third-from-last place in 2016.
Last year began the same way. Through the first six games, the Eagles averaged 16.3 points per game, which over a full season would have matched 125th-place Rice. BC was 2-6 and seemingly en route to a second straight season at the Atlantic's bottom.
And then, out of nowhere, the offense put 45 on Louisville, 41 on Virginia, and 35 on Florida State. They scored 36 points per game over their last six of the regular season – more like Oregon than Rice. That unexpected explosion propelled BC to a bowl game and might have saved Addazio's job (even if he's never done better than 7-6).
There's ample reason to believe it won't be a blip.
BC's preference was to give tailback A.J. Dillon the ball, and he rewarded them with 1,589 touchdowns (5.3 per carry) and 14 touchdowns. Oh, and he did that as a true freshman. With seven experienced blockers and a mobile (albeit post-knee-injury) quarterback, the Eagles could run all day if they want to.
They might find decent success throwing, too. QB Anthony Brown was up-and-down in that capacity last year, but he was also a redshirt freshman. With the team's three most-targeted wideouts and tight end Tommy Sweeney (the BC leader in receptions, yards, and touchdowns), he has players to whom to throw. This won't be a great passing attack, but it might be passable enough to present something extra for opponents to defend.
And I'm not too concerned about the defense. This side of the ball is Addazio's strength, and with health (two-year starting linebacker Connor Strachan is back after his own knee injury limited his 2017 season to two games), it should be good. The four major departures – tackles leader Ty Schwab, end Harold Landry, and corners Kamrin Moore and Isaac Yiadom – have replacements who acquitted themselves well as backups last season.
When I look at Boston College I see a solid team that could have top-third-of-FBS talent. The issue, of course, is that almost every other team in the Atlantic looks the same way or better. Worse yet, BC has to play Miami and Virginia Tech from the Coastal.
With a softer schedule, this might be an eight- or nine-win season. Instead, Addazio and the Eagles are more likely bound for another unimpressive year and a lower-division finish.
Dino Babers is still working on rebuilding Syracuse, and the Orange are likely to finish last in the Atlantic again, but at least he's getting somewhere on one side of the ball..
In college, Babers was a two-way player, but he spent all but one year of his career as an assistant coach on offense. He was Arizona's offensive coordinator at the end of the 90s and Texas A&M's at the beginning of the 2000s. In 2013, his second season as a head coach and last at Eastern Illinois, his offense averaged 48.2 points per game. In 2015, his second and last season at Bowling Green, it averaged 42.2 points per game.
Babers is an offensive specialist. It makes sense that Syracuse may find their way offensively this season.
Of course, last year's team probably didn't look like it was "finding its way." By all the broad per-play statistics (completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, yards per carry, overall yards per play), the Orange's whole season was at best below-average or at worst just bad.
But when they had quarterback Eric Dungey, they had something. Dungey has been in and out of the lineup for three years with a variety of injuries, but when he plays, he leads the offense. He led the team in non-sack rushing yards (both total and per carry – and he didn't suffer most quarterbacks' fumble problems) and, when he wasn't getting sacked, was a capable passer.
If Dungey stays healthy for once, he'll have an experienced O-line, a talented junior tailback in Moe Neal, and most of his targets from last year. That can be the start of something.
If Dungey doesn't stay healthy, redshirt sophomore Rex Culpepper (whose name evokes mid-2000s NFC North quarterbacks) was an acceptable substitute last season. Alternatively, there's redshirt freshman Tommy DeVito (whose name does not but is also kind of fun), a former blue-chip recruit. Both were classified as pro-style recruits, so whatever passing aptitude they possess probably aren't matched by their running abilities.
And a necessary disclaimer: The Orange's top two receivers, Steve Ishmael and Ervin Phillips, graduated having been targeted 305 times combined last season. Third-place wideout Devin C. Butler barely had a third of that. Even if everyone else is back, nobody in the receiving corps has had that prominent a role.
But with everything else, I think Syracuse can at least look alright offensively if Dungey stays on the field most of the time.
The defense is still much further behind. The secondary and the line have continuity going for them, but they were both poor last year. Plus, all four of the team's regular linebackers graduated, which is not something with which a defense can easily cope. Inexperience in the middle of the field could turn a bad rush defense into one of the nation's worst.
It's that defense that will keep Syracuse near the bottom of the conference. In a deep division, they're the easy pick for last. But Babers is making progress. He could have the Orange competitive again fairly soon.
In college, Babers was a two-way player, but he spent all but one year of his career as an assistant coach on offense. He was Arizona's offensive coordinator at the end of the 90s and Texas A&M's at the beginning of the 2000s. In 2013, his second season as a head coach and last at Eastern Illinois, his offense averaged 48.2 points per game. In 2015, his second and last season at Bowling Green, it averaged 42.2 points per game.
Babers is an offensive specialist. It makes sense that Syracuse may find their way offensively this season.
Of course, last year's team probably didn't look like it was "finding its way." By all the broad per-play statistics (completion percentage, yards per pass attempt, yards per carry, overall yards per play), the Orange's whole season was at best below-average or at worst just bad.
But when they had quarterback Eric Dungey, they had something. Dungey has been in and out of the lineup for three years with a variety of injuries, but when he plays, he leads the offense. He led the team in non-sack rushing yards (both total and per carry – and he didn't suffer most quarterbacks' fumble problems) and, when he wasn't getting sacked, was a capable passer.
If Dungey stays healthy for once, he'll have an experienced O-line, a talented junior tailback in Moe Neal, and most of his targets from last year. That can be the start of something.
If Dungey doesn't stay healthy, redshirt sophomore Rex Culpepper (whose name evokes mid-2000s NFC North quarterbacks) was an acceptable substitute last season. Alternatively, there's redshirt freshman Tommy DeVito (whose name does not but is also kind of fun), a former blue-chip recruit. Both were classified as pro-style recruits, so whatever passing aptitude they possess probably aren't matched by their running abilities.
And a necessary disclaimer: The Orange's top two receivers, Steve Ishmael and Ervin Phillips, graduated having been targeted 305 times combined last season. Third-place wideout Devin C. Butler barely had a third of that. Even if everyone else is back, nobody in the receiving corps has had that prominent a role.
But with everything else, I think Syracuse can at least look alright offensively if Dungey stays on the field most of the time.
The defense is still much further behind. The secondary and the line have continuity going for them, but they were both poor last year. Plus, all four of the team's regular linebackers graduated, which is not something with which a defense can easily cope. Inexperience in the middle of the field could turn a bad rush defense into one of the nation's worst.
It's that defense that will keep Syracuse near the bottom of the conference. In a deep division, they're the easy pick for last. But Babers is making progress. He could have the Orange competitive again fairly soon.
Coastal
Predicted standings:
1. Miami (FL)
2. Duke
3. Virginia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. Georgia Tech
5. Georgia Tech
6. Pitt
7. Virginia
The three straight season-souring losses that Miami's 2017 – and Octobers' four single-digit-point wins – shouldn't distract from the Canes taking their first step to regaining national prominence. In his third year of his alma mater, Mark Richt could field a Playoff team.
The defense will lead the way. Though randomness plays a big part in generating turnovers, a team can maximize their odds by generating more turnover opportunities. Few were better at that than Miami. The Canes forced 11 fumbles for the season, an average of almost one per game; and seven players defensed at least five passes. They created plenty of opportunities, then, and they capitalized: Only Wyoming and UCF had more takeaways.
They weren't just good at forcing turnovers, either. Opponents averaged 3.5 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per pass, each among the 20 lowest marks in FBS. That's less elite than really good, but there's nothing wrong with being "only" really good.
This season's defense won't be as good up front after losing four linemen who helped Miami tie USC for second in the nation in sacks. Every other position group looks solid though.
Linebackers Shaquille Quarterman and Michel Pinckney combined for 18 TFLs and and eight pass breakups. Another three each made at least a dozen tackles.
The secondary looks really deep. At safety are Miami's leading tackler and fumble-forcer, Jaquan Johnson; and Sheldrick Redwine, who defensed eight passes. Michael Jackson and Trajan Bandy round out a strong starting four. The only potential problem in the back is proven depth, but the backups are mostly former big-name recruits, so it might not be an issue.
On the other side, Miami enters 2018 with the ACC's best rushing attack outside of Georgia Tech. Last season, the Canes ranked 24th in FBS in yards per rush, and they get back their two leading rushers (tailback Travis Homer and quarterback Malik Rosier, who combined for 1,508 yards and 13 touchdowns) and three starting linemen. The nation's second-best running back prospect, Lorenzo Lingard, joins the effort, as well as lineman Venzell Boulware, a transfer from Tennessee.
The passing game could suffer from the loss of No. 1 receiver Braxton Berrios and tight end Christopher Herndon IV, but most of the receiving corps is back. If one of last year's many underclassmen who played can become a reliable primary option, then those two losses won't matter.
Concerns over Rosier as a thrower are warranted but likely overblown. His 54-percent completion rate and 14 picks are disconcerting; however, his 7.5 yards per pass and 26 touchdowns make him a reliable, if inconsistent, quarterback. Miami definitely can win (and has won) with him.
Making the Playoff requires beating Clemson in the ACC Championship, and the last time Miami tried that didn't go so well. But the experience on this already highly talented roster should make for at least a more competitive rematch.
David Cutcliffe has done a solid job at Duke. Through a decade, Cutcliffe is only eight wins under .500, and most of the losing came in the first few years of his tenure. Since 2012, he has taken the Blue Devils to five bowls and twice finished in the top two of the division. He is Duke's best coach since Steve Spurrier.
This year should be another successful one for Cutcliffe thanks to continuity on both sides of the ball.
With the exception of the No. 1 running back and a few offensive linemen, Duke gets back most of their important offensive players. Quarterback Daniel Jones should be better in the pocket as a junior, especially with all the juniors and seniors in the receiving corps: Five of six wideouts and both tight ends who received at least 10 targets are still on the roster. Redshirt sophomore Brittain Brown was an effective backup running back and should fill in well as the starter.
If the new linemen are remotely adequate, the offense will crawl out from its place at 114th in the FBS yards per play rankings.
Meanwhile, all but four defenders who made a tackle last year are back for 2018. Only three departures were starters. Though Mike Ramsay (9.5 TFLs at tackle), Byron Fields, Jr. (10 passes defensed at corner), and Alonzo Saxton II (69.5 tackles at safety) were important players – and Ramsay and Fields leave significant vacancies – there's too much experience on the depth chart for me to worry much.
It's not just sheer numbers, too; Duke has a set of playmakers. Corner Mark Gilbert had 14 pass breakups and six interceptions. Ends Victor Dimukeje and Tre Hornbuckle combined for 17 tackles for loss. Safeties Jeremy McDuffie and Jordan Hayes totaled 19 passes defensed. The Blue Devils could go from having a decent defense to one of the ACC's best.
Nobody has a shot at the Hurricanes, and the Blue Devils have a tough schedule, but Cutcliffe should have another fine year in Durham.
Virginia Tech starts from a higher spot than any of the non-Miami teams in the Coastal just by finishing second last year, but they are in a tricky place after a turbulent offseason of turnover.
On defense, VT was one of the best teams in the country. In addition to fielding a top-20 rushing defense, they were one of four teams to allow a sub-50 completion percentage. (The others: Wisconsin, Michigan, and UTSA.)
Then stars Tremaine and Terrell Edmunds (brothers at linebacker and safety) went to the NFL; 335-pound tackle Tim Settle and corner Adonis Alexander followed them; five players with 10 or more tackles graduated; and safety Mook Reynolds got kicked off the team.
After all of that, seven starters were gone, and that's not considering the loss of a junior college signee to injury and the co-coordinator to resignation.
With raw talent and good coaching, the Hokies might stay above the rest of the division. But that turnover will cost them any hope at a big bowl unless the underclassmen thrown into the fray play excellently. 2018 is likely to be a seven-win year or worse.
I wanted to put UNC a spot lower after their disastrous 2017, and after they suspended 13 players (including their likely starting quarterback), but this young roster's upside is too great.
The offensive line is shaky but experienced after injuries forced underclassmen onto the field. Chazz Surratt is an intriguing dual-threat quarterback who wrestled the starting job from three other contenders. (Nathan Elliot, a somewhat better runner but worse passer, will play in his stead.) Tailback Michael Carter, wideout Anthony Ratliff-Williams, and tight end Brandon Fritts lead a young skill group who got significant playing time last year.
Like on offense, the defensive two-deep was thoroughly tested by injuries, which gave a lot of young player reps. Aside from linebacker, where just two regulars return, every position group has depth. Replacing top corner M.J. Stewart is the secondary's only concern. Doing so for end Dajaun Drennon is the line's. You should worry a bit about the rush defense because of the holes in the second level, but the rest of the defense has enough talent to keep the Heels in games.
Depending on how North Carolina survives the suspensions, they could climb up the standings and even threaten for second place. Most likely, they'll settle somewhere in the middle of a parity-ridden Coastal.
Georgia Tech looks set for another Georgia Tech-like season: Run the ball well, throw the ball rarely and for few completions but for many yards, and hope things come together on defense for something more than a six-win season.
The offense has experience all along the line and in the backfield, which should benefit second-year quarterback TaQuon Marshall. Marshall set the school's single-season rushing record for the position in his first season and, along with A-back KirVonte Benson, was one of the Yellow Jackets' two 1,000-yard rushers. Georgia Tech is a consistent top-20 rushing team, and they have the players to stay there.
For those few completions to indeed go for those many yards, Paul Johnson needs to find a new No. 1 receiver – which is to say he needs to find a receiver. The now-graduated Ricky Jeune had more touchdown catches (six) than the two tied-for-second-place receivers each had catches (four apiece). Jeune accounted for almost half the team's targets and more than half the receptions, and he won't be easy to replace.
In addition to the receiving "corps," turnover hurts the secondary. Four regular DBs with 20 combined passes defensed gradated, leaving the backfield sparse. Last year's 33rd-ranked pass defense (by yards per attempt, of course) will not hold. Juniors and seniors in the first and second levels can make the rush defense average; it will not offset the pass defense's problems.
So will Georgia Tech have more than a six-win season? Probably not. I'd call them favorites in three or four games and clear underdogs against Clemson, Miami, and Georgia; and the rest of the games are toss-ups or worse. With luck, Johnson will win seven and pull a major upset. Just going bowling is a realistic goal.
The beginning of Pitt's 2017 was a hard reset: 1-3 in their first four games, with the one win being by a touchdown over Youngstown State.
But things picked up soon, beginning with a blowout win over Rice. The next week, the Panthers lost by three at Syracuse despite outgaining the Orange on a per-play basis. After a loss to NC State, Pitt beat Duke and Virginia and lost to UNC and Virginia Tech by a combined nine points. They then closed their season with a memorable upset over Miami.
While 4-4 doesn't sound that impressive, being in close games and beating a couple of superior opponents showed that Pat Narduzzi's young team improved as the year continued. By the end, they seemingly found a starting quarterback, Kenny Pickett, and most contributors are back for 2018.
With a little bit more improvement, Pitt can win seven or eight games.
The defense will lead the way. Though randomness plays a big part in generating turnovers, a team can maximize their odds by generating more turnover opportunities. Few were better at that than Miami. The Canes forced 11 fumbles for the season, an average of almost one per game; and seven players defensed at least five passes. They created plenty of opportunities, then, and they capitalized: Only Wyoming and UCF had more takeaways.
They weren't just good at forcing turnovers, either. Opponents averaged 3.5 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per pass, each among the 20 lowest marks in FBS. That's less elite than really good, but there's nothing wrong with being "only" really good.
This season's defense won't be as good up front after losing four linemen who helped Miami tie USC for second in the nation in sacks. Every other position group looks solid though.
Linebackers Shaquille Quarterman and Michel Pinckney combined for 18 TFLs and and eight pass breakups. Another three each made at least a dozen tackles.
The secondary looks really deep. At safety are Miami's leading tackler and fumble-forcer, Jaquan Johnson; and Sheldrick Redwine, who defensed eight passes. Michael Jackson and Trajan Bandy round out a strong starting four. The only potential problem in the back is proven depth, but the backups are mostly former big-name recruits, so it might not be an issue.
On the other side, Miami enters 2018 with the ACC's best rushing attack outside of Georgia Tech. Last season, the Canes ranked 24th in FBS in yards per rush, and they get back their two leading rushers (tailback Travis Homer and quarterback Malik Rosier, who combined for 1,508 yards and 13 touchdowns) and three starting linemen. The nation's second-best running back prospect, Lorenzo Lingard, joins the effort, as well as lineman Venzell Boulware, a transfer from Tennessee.
The passing game could suffer from the loss of No. 1 receiver Braxton Berrios and tight end Christopher Herndon IV, but most of the receiving corps is back. If one of last year's many underclassmen who played can become a reliable primary option, then those two losses won't matter.
Concerns over Rosier as a thrower are warranted but likely overblown. His 54-percent completion rate and 14 picks are disconcerting; however, his 7.5 yards per pass and 26 touchdowns make him a reliable, if inconsistent, quarterback. Miami definitely can win (and has won) with him.
Making the Playoff requires beating Clemson in the ACC Championship, and the last time Miami tried that didn't go so well. But the experience on this already highly talented roster should make for at least a more competitive rematch.
David Cutcliffe has done a solid job at Duke. Through a decade, Cutcliffe is only eight wins under .500, and most of the losing came in the first few years of his tenure. Since 2012, he has taken the Blue Devils to five bowls and twice finished in the top two of the division. He is Duke's best coach since Steve Spurrier.
This year should be another successful one for Cutcliffe thanks to continuity on both sides of the ball.
With the exception of the No. 1 running back and a few offensive linemen, Duke gets back most of their important offensive players. Quarterback Daniel Jones should be better in the pocket as a junior, especially with all the juniors and seniors in the receiving corps: Five of six wideouts and both tight ends who received at least 10 targets are still on the roster. Redshirt sophomore Brittain Brown was an effective backup running back and should fill in well as the starter.
If the new linemen are remotely adequate, the offense will crawl out from its place at 114th in the FBS yards per play rankings.
Meanwhile, all but four defenders who made a tackle last year are back for 2018. Only three departures were starters. Though Mike Ramsay (9.5 TFLs at tackle), Byron Fields, Jr. (10 passes defensed at corner), and Alonzo Saxton II (69.5 tackles at safety) were important players – and Ramsay and Fields leave significant vacancies – there's too much experience on the depth chart for me to worry much.
It's not just sheer numbers, too; Duke has a set of playmakers. Corner Mark Gilbert had 14 pass breakups and six interceptions. Ends Victor Dimukeje and Tre Hornbuckle combined for 17 tackles for loss. Safeties Jeremy McDuffie and Jordan Hayes totaled 19 passes defensed. The Blue Devils could go from having a decent defense to one of the ACC's best.
Nobody has a shot at the Hurricanes, and the Blue Devils have a tough schedule, but Cutcliffe should have another fine year in Durham.
Virginia Tech starts from a higher spot than any of the non-Miami teams in the Coastal just by finishing second last year, but they are in a tricky place after a turbulent offseason of turnover.
On defense, VT was one of the best teams in the country. In addition to fielding a top-20 rushing defense, they were one of four teams to allow a sub-50 completion percentage. (The others: Wisconsin, Michigan, and UTSA.)
Then stars Tremaine and Terrell Edmunds (brothers at linebacker and safety) went to the NFL; 335-pound tackle Tim Settle and corner Adonis Alexander followed them; five players with 10 or more tackles graduated; and safety Mook Reynolds got kicked off the team.
After all of that, seven starters were gone, and that's not considering the loss of a junior college signee to injury and the co-coordinator to resignation.
With raw talent and good coaching, the Hokies might stay above the rest of the division. But that turnover will cost them any hope at a big bowl unless the underclassmen thrown into the fray play excellently. 2018 is likely to be a seven-win year or worse.
I wanted to put UNC a spot lower after their disastrous 2017, and after they suspended 13 players (including their likely starting quarterback), but this young roster's upside is too great.
The offensive line is shaky but experienced after injuries forced underclassmen onto the field. Chazz Surratt is an intriguing dual-threat quarterback who wrestled the starting job from three other contenders. (Nathan Elliot, a somewhat better runner but worse passer, will play in his stead.) Tailback Michael Carter, wideout Anthony Ratliff-Williams, and tight end Brandon Fritts lead a young skill group who got significant playing time last year.
Like on offense, the defensive two-deep was thoroughly tested by injuries, which gave a lot of young player reps. Aside from linebacker, where just two regulars return, every position group has depth. Replacing top corner M.J. Stewart is the secondary's only concern. Doing so for end Dajaun Drennon is the line's. You should worry a bit about the rush defense because of the holes in the second level, but the rest of the defense has enough talent to keep the Heels in games.
Depending on how North Carolina survives the suspensions, they could climb up the standings and even threaten for second place. Most likely, they'll settle somewhere in the middle of a parity-ridden Coastal.
Georgia Tech looks set for another Georgia Tech-like season: Run the ball well, throw the ball rarely and for few completions but for many yards, and hope things come together on defense for something more than a six-win season.
The offense has experience all along the line and in the backfield, which should benefit second-year quarterback TaQuon Marshall. Marshall set the school's single-season rushing record for the position in his first season and, along with A-back KirVonte Benson, was one of the Yellow Jackets' two 1,000-yard rushers. Georgia Tech is a consistent top-20 rushing team, and they have the players to stay there.
For those few completions to indeed go for those many yards, Paul Johnson needs to find a new No. 1 receiver – which is to say he needs to find a receiver. The now-graduated Ricky Jeune had more touchdown catches (six) than the two tied-for-second-place receivers each had catches (four apiece). Jeune accounted for almost half the team's targets and more than half the receptions, and he won't be easy to replace.
In addition to the receiving "corps," turnover hurts the secondary. Four regular DBs with 20 combined passes defensed gradated, leaving the backfield sparse. Last year's 33rd-ranked pass defense (by yards per attempt, of course) will not hold. Juniors and seniors in the first and second levels can make the rush defense average; it will not offset the pass defense's problems.
So will Georgia Tech have more than a six-win season? Probably not. I'd call them favorites in three or four games and clear underdogs against Clemson, Miami, and Georgia; and the rest of the games are toss-ups or worse. With luck, Johnson will win seven and pull a major upset. Just going bowling is a realistic goal.
The beginning of Pitt's 2017 was a hard reset: 1-3 in their first four games, with the one win being by a touchdown over Youngstown State.
But things picked up soon, beginning with a blowout win over Rice. The next week, the Panthers lost by three at Syracuse despite outgaining the Orange on a per-play basis. After a loss to NC State, Pitt beat Duke and Virginia and lost to UNC and Virginia Tech by a combined nine points. They then closed their season with a memorable upset over Miami.
While 4-4 doesn't sound that impressive, being in close games and beating a couple of superior opponents showed that Pat Narduzzi's young team improved as the year continued. By the end, they seemingly found a starting quarterback, Kenny Pickett, and most contributors are back for 2018.
With a little bit more improvement, Pitt can win seven or eight games.
Last year, Bronco Mendenhall took Virginia to their second bowl game in the last ten years and their first in five. Relative to program standards, it was a positive season.
But that's relative to some pretty low standards, and this isn't that talented a roster. Six wins might be the best-case scenario for 2018.
For starters, the Hoos succeeded in spite of their offense last year rather than because of it. The rushing game was moribund, averaging 3.1 yards per carry. The passing attack was not a whole lot better, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt. Improvement is likely for the former with O-line and tailback continuity, but the latter will get worse. UVA needs a new quarterback and receivers to step up in the places of Kurt Benkert and his favorite wideouts, yards per catch leaders Doni Dowling and Andre Levrone. This offense will probably stay one of the country's worst.
The defense is pretty good, but not so good that this is a probable bowl team. Last year's unit succeeded despite basically no depth. That's a dangerous way to play that leaves this year's backups inexperienced; if there are more than a couple of injuries, this could go poorly quickly.
Still: Most defenders are back. Even if the two leading tacklers graduated, this level of continuity should mean a good starting lineup. Maybe if Virginia keeps enough scores low, they'll scare or even upset a couple of opponents.
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Up next: the SEC.
Tons of credit for stats go to S&P+ creator and SB Nation writer Bill Connelly, whose advanced statistical profiles are invaluable for their detail. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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