It's still some time until the first FBS games on August 25, but it's never too early to start talking about the mid-majors. Today, we cover Conference USA the Sun Belt.
Conference USA
West
Predicted standings:
1. UAB
2. North Texas
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Southern Mississippi
5. UTSA
6. Rice
7. UTEP
The coolest story of 2017 was Bill Clark's UAB. After two years on hiatus, the Blazers won eight games and finished second in the C-USA West. It was better than pretty much anyone could have predicted, and Clark's team looks like it can do even better this season.
Last year's Blazers were nothing special offensively. They averaged just 5.4 yards per play and 27.8 points per game, putting them in the bottom half of FBS, but not so close to the bottom that they were necessarily terrible. The good news is that basically none of their offense graduated; the only important player gone is guard Chris Schluger. Quarterback A.J. Ederly and running backs Spencer Brown and James Noble III should have plenty of room to run behind an experienced offensive line.
Less of the UAB defense returns, but that side of the ball was better last year, and few key contributors will likely be missed. Finding a replacement for all-conference corner Darious Williams is the first priority, but there is no other glaring need. For a C-USA team, the UAB defense could be pretty good.
The 2018 Blazers are a senior-heavy team, so you can probably count on 2019 being a reset year. But with the experience they have gained, you should expect significant improvement. Avoiding FAU as a cross-division opponent (and getting Charlotte) gives UAB an edge the next two division title contenders don't have. The circumstances are right for a great season.
Under head coach Seth Littrell and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, North Texas had one of the Group of Five's most potent offenses last year, ranking 31st in the country in yards per play (6.2) and 19th in points per game (35.5).
The leader of UNT's attack was quarterback Mason Fine. Fine combined 4,052 passing yards with 309 non-sack rushing yards in an excellent sophomore season that earned him C-USA Offensive Player of the Year honors. He gets back most of his receivers – including Michael Lawrence, the conference's fifth-leading receiver, and Jalen Guyton, who finished fourth in the conference in yards per reception – and four-fifths of a reliable enough offensive line. The Mean Green should throw the ball about as well as they did before, if not better.
What might be missed, however, is a capable run game. Jeffery Wilson was one of the top running backs in college football; his 6.5 yards per carry and 16 touchdowns were 21st- and tied for 16th-best, respectively, in FBS. With Wilson gone, UNT has some potentially capable replacements, but none with his proven ability. Sophomores Nic Smith, who averaged 5.0 yards per carry last year, and DeAndre Torrey, who ran for almost 1,300 yards in a year with a Mississippi junior college, have promise. We'll see how much more passing-reliant the offense might become though.
The Mean Green defense is less impressive. For the season, UNT allowed the 17th-most passing yards per completion and the 39th-most rushing yards per attempt in FBS.
On few occasions did they look better than passable; against SMU, Army, FAU, and Troy, they looked totally overmatched. While each of those opponents had strong offenses, allowing 52.6 points per game (including 69 in the first meeting with FAU) over five games isn't a good look. A few additions to the defensive line could bolster the run defense, but a possible lack of depth in the second and third levels is disconcerting.
Improvement, should it come, could be slight and brief: just two of the team's 15 leading tacklers last season will be back for 2019. The defense might not keep the Mean Green from winning the West again, but it seems likely that is their ceiling.
Louisiana Tech returns a lot of players and should remain solid, with the potential for a mini-breakout offensively if junior Jaqwis Dancy turns last year's small-sample success into a productive season as the presumed No. 1 tailback. The Bulldogs have a small but not nonexistent chance at the division title that improves a good bit if they can win in Denton or when UAB comes to Ruston.
Frank Wilson's UTSA has been assembling talent, but after the loss of key players like quarterback Dalton Sturm and defensive end Marcus Davenport, they should take a step back for now. The same goes for Southern Miss, who was better than UTSA in 2017 and has more room to fall.
Rice and UTEP are breaking in new coaches and will be pretty much irrelevant.
East
Predicted standings:
1. Florida Atlantic (conference champions)
2. Marshall
3. Florida International
3. Florida International
4. Middle Tennessee State
5. Western Kentucky
6. Old Dominion
7. Charlotte
Let's make this clear early: FAU is winning the East. They're probably winning Conference-USA. The Owls will be favorites in every conference game they play, and if not for a pair of huge, Oklahoma- and UCF-shaped roadblocks, they would have a pretty good chance at an undefeated season. Still: depending on how those games go, they could find themselves in a New Year's Six bowl at the end of the year.
How did Lane Kiffin so quickly turn FAU into one of the top mid-major programs in the country? I don't pretend to have a detailed answer, but the short one is a crazy-good, crazy-fast offense. Just 10 teams averaged more yards per play, and just three averaged more yards per rush. As a result, in the Owls' 11 wins, they were an average of 26.6 points better than their opponents.
Devin Singletary, who led the team with 1,920 rushing yards, has lost his backfield partners to graduation and just not wanting to play football anymore, but in him, FAU still has an immensely valuable weapon. Kerrith Whyte, Jr. was effective in doses last year and could take over as the second running back. Freshman Malcolm Davidson might also provide some use. Blocking for them is a somewhat depleted but still likely effective line reinforced by a couple of transfers.
Playing quarterback will probably be one of Chris Robison (a former four-star-turned-Oklahoma transfer) or De'Andre Johnson (a junior college transfer who threw three passes last year). Based on high school and JuCo stats (a dicey way means of evaluation, but the best we have), we can guess that Robison and Johnson can each both run and throw effectively, which should mean whoever wins the job won't limit the offense too much.
New offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, Jr. has the tools, so he shouldn't have to change much for the Owls to score points at will.
The Florida Atlantic defense was not as stacked as its counterpart, but it was plenty good enough –and plenty young. Just two of the team's top 15 tacklers were seniors last year. Using Bill Connelly's returning production stat, FAU's defense returns the eighth-most production this season. Senior linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is the leader, having made 109 tackles (10.5 TFLs) and four pass breakups last season.
The offense will garner more attention, but the defense could play almost as much of a role in winning games. And FAU will win a lot of games.
If Marshall repeats last season's successful campaign, it will be on the strength of arguably Conference USA's best defense. Opposing teams averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 3.4 yards per rush attempt against the Thundering Herd in 2017. Marshall allowed just 19.9 points per game. In each statistic, their defense was in the top quarter of FBS.
With seven starters and plenty of experienced backups coming back, this unit shouldn't get any worse. The team's leading tackler (linebacker Chase Hancock, 82.5 tackles), pass rusher (tackle Ryan Bee, 5.5 sacks), and cover man (corner Chris Jackson, 3 interceptions and 10 pass breakups) headline the list of returning players. In a conference with plenty of offense, having plenty of defense will count for a lot.
If the Herd's blockers can improve with experience and create anything in the way of a running game, perhaps Marshall's offense will have multiple dimensions and help make a race out of the C-USA East. I don't expect that, but with a break or two, it could happen.
With all the attention directed to Boca Raton, Florida International kind of slipped under the radar despite going 8-5 in Butch Davis' first year. Graduation depleted the roster a bit, but Davis restocked the team with transfers and the best recruiting class in FIU's history, which will undoubtedly soften any decline. I think the Golden Panthers are in strong, strong shape going forward and could easily win eight games again this year, but I don't expect them to make a run for the top of the conference for at least another season.
Injuries derailed MTSU's 2017. If quarterback Brent Stockstill and receiver Ty Lee can revive the Blue Raiders' once-powerful offense, their much-improved defense will keep them in a lot of games and in the race for second or third in the division.
I knew Jeff Brohm was a good coach, but I had no idea he was this good. Immediately upon his departure for Purdue, WKU took a nosedive. Giving young players a good amount of playing time will pay off eventually, but probably not this season. Going bowling is still a reasonable hope.
I am confused as to how Charlotte won a game (25-24 over UAB) last year. Since joining FBS, the 49ers have consistently been among the worst programs in the subdivision with a .194 winning percentage. Their fortunes will likely not change, and Brad Lambert is likely not long for the job of head coach.
How did Lane Kiffin so quickly turn FAU into one of the top mid-major programs in the country? I don't pretend to have a detailed answer, but the short one is a crazy-good, crazy-fast offense. Just 10 teams averaged more yards per play, and just three averaged more yards per rush. As a result, in the Owls' 11 wins, they were an average of 26.6 points better than their opponents.
Devin Singletary, who led the team with 1,920 rushing yards, has lost his backfield partners to graduation and just not wanting to play football anymore, but in him, FAU still has an immensely valuable weapon. Kerrith Whyte, Jr. was effective in doses last year and could take over as the second running back. Freshman Malcolm Davidson might also provide some use. Blocking for them is a somewhat depleted but still likely effective line reinforced by a couple of transfers.
Playing quarterback will probably be one of Chris Robison (a former four-star-turned-Oklahoma transfer) or De'Andre Johnson (a junior college transfer who threw three passes last year). Based on high school and JuCo stats (a dicey way means of evaluation, but the best we have), we can guess that Robison and Johnson can each both run and throw effectively, which should mean whoever wins the job won't limit the offense too much.
New offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, Jr. has the tools, so he shouldn't have to change much for the Owls to score points at will.
The Florida Atlantic defense was not as stacked as its counterpart, but it was plenty good enough –and plenty young. Just two of the team's top 15 tacklers were seniors last year. Using Bill Connelly's returning production stat, FAU's defense returns the eighth-most production this season. Senior linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is the leader, having made 109 tackles (10.5 TFLs) and four pass breakups last season.
The offense will garner more attention, but the defense could play almost as much of a role in winning games. And FAU will win a lot of games.
If Marshall repeats last season's successful campaign, it will be on the strength of arguably Conference USA's best defense. Opposing teams averaged 6.6 yards per pass attempt and 3.4 yards per rush attempt against the Thundering Herd in 2017. Marshall allowed just 19.9 points per game. In each statistic, their defense was in the top quarter of FBS.
With seven starters and plenty of experienced backups coming back, this unit shouldn't get any worse. The team's leading tackler (linebacker Chase Hancock, 82.5 tackles), pass rusher (tackle Ryan Bee, 5.5 sacks), and cover man (corner Chris Jackson, 3 interceptions and 10 pass breakups) headline the list of returning players. In a conference with plenty of offense, having plenty of defense will count for a lot.
If the Herd's blockers can improve with experience and create anything in the way of a running game, perhaps Marshall's offense will have multiple dimensions and help make a race out of the C-USA East. I don't expect that, but with a break or two, it could happen.
With all the attention directed to Boca Raton, Florida International kind of slipped under the radar despite going 8-5 in Butch Davis' first year. Graduation depleted the roster a bit, but Davis restocked the team with transfers and the best recruiting class in FIU's history, which will undoubtedly soften any decline. I think the Golden Panthers are in strong, strong shape going forward and could easily win eight games again this year, but I don't expect them to make a run for the top of the conference for at least another season.
Injuries derailed MTSU's 2017. If quarterback Brent Stockstill and receiver Ty Lee can revive the Blue Raiders' once-powerful offense, their much-improved defense will keep them in a lot of games and in the race for second or third in the division.
I knew Jeff Brohm was a good coach, but I had no idea he was this good. Immediately upon his departure for Purdue, WKU took a nosedive. Giving young players a good amount of playing time will pay off eventually, but probably not this season. Going bowling is still a reasonable hope.
I am confused as to how Charlotte won a game (25-24 over UAB) last year. Since joining FBS, the 49ers have consistently been among the worst programs in the subdivision with a .194 winning percentage. Their fortunes will likely not change, and Brad Lambert is likely not long for the job of head coach.
Sun Belt
West
Predicted standings:
1. Arkansas State (conference champions)
2. Louisiana-Monroe
3. South Alabama
4. Louisiana-Lafayette
5. Texas State
Playing in the inferior West, Arkansas State faces an easy path to the inaugural Sun Belt Championship Game. A cross-division matchup against Appalachian State looks tough, but there are few easier division title picks anywhere.
A Larry Fedora disciple, head coach Blake Anderson likes a pass-happy spread offense. Arkansas State threw for the fifth-most passing yards per game, thanks to their reliable quarterback, Justice Hansen, and a stable of capable pass-catchers. Properly replacing tight end Blake Mack might be hard, but plenty of wideouts whom Hansen targeted (like yards-per-catch leader Justin McInnis) return. So does Hansen, which is huge. Expect the Red Wolves to score many points.
The Arkansas State defense is fine. Despite vulnerability to big plays (they ranked 112th-best in FBS in yards per completion allowed), their secondary usually prevented any kind of gain (6th-best in completion percentage allowed). With most members of that group returning for 2018 – though corner Blaise Taylor is a big departure – they should be comparably good or better.
The front six, however, loses four key playmakers in middle linebacker Kyle Wilson (69.5 tackles), defensive end Ja'Von Rolland-Jones (13 sacks), rush end Caleb Caston (10 TFLs), and 337-pound tackle Dee Liner (14 run stuffs – credit to Bill Connelly).
Ronheen Bingham, Hunter Moreton, and Christian Howard (combined 19.5 TFLs) look like potentially capable fill-ins on the line, and they are aided by a trio of JuCo transfers and former Ball State Cardinal Kevin Thurmon. We'll see if the linebacker corps, not supplemented as much, withstands the subtractions.
With a dangerous offense and an adequate defense, all the Red Wolves have to do is stay healthy. Should they do that, the division is theirs.
If Arkansas State has problems though, who can take the West instead?
UL-Monroe has a monstrous passing game and a potentially strong running game, each led by junior quarterback Caleb Evans. But their defense is horrendous: opponents averaged 7.3 yards per play last season; only Tulsa and East Carolina were worse in that stat. Lots of players come back, so maybe the reps they got last year will help a little. I doubt it will be enough to make the Warhawks more than a bowl team.
South Alabama, now coached by JuCo and FCS success story Steve Campbell, doesn't look threatening either. The Jags desperately need some kind of offense to have a chance. Having experience in every position group helps, but how much will that matter for a team with no run game and no clear quarterback? This team needs seasoning.
Like their rivals in Monroe, the Ragin' Cajuns of Lafayette were only functional on one side of the ball last season: offense. (Fittingly, when the two played, ULM won in a barn-burner: 56-50.) The Cajuns' offense, which wasn't as impressive as the Warhawks', brings back basically everyone at the skill positions. If the line performs adequately (an uncertain thing), this unit could take off.
The defense, however, replaces a lot of regulars – bad news for a team that was already abysmal at keeping teams out of the end zone. (Opponents averaged 40.0 points per game.) For Billy Napier to win in his new gig, he needs to fix the defense first.
Eventually, Everett Withers' Texas State will look like a real Division I football team. Now entering his third year as head coach, Withers has more leeway than most coaches with two identical 2-10 seasons on their ledgers do. That's what taking over for Dennis Franchione does for a guy, I guess.
The Bobcats played tons of sophomores and freshman last year, and especially on defense, that looks like it could start to pay off soon. But don't expect more than early signs of life in San Marcos.
A Larry Fedora disciple, head coach Blake Anderson likes a pass-happy spread offense. Arkansas State threw for the fifth-most passing yards per game, thanks to their reliable quarterback, Justice Hansen, and a stable of capable pass-catchers. Properly replacing tight end Blake Mack might be hard, but plenty of wideouts whom Hansen targeted (like yards-per-catch leader Justin McInnis) return. So does Hansen, which is huge. Expect the Red Wolves to score many points.
The Arkansas State defense is fine. Despite vulnerability to big plays (they ranked 112th-best in FBS in yards per completion allowed), their secondary usually prevented any kind of gain (6th-best in completion percentage allowed). With most members of that group returning for 2018 – though corner Blaise Taylor is a big departure – they should be comparably good or better.
The front six, however, loses four key playmakers in middle linebacker Kyle Wilson (69.5 tackles), defensive end Ja'Von Rolland-Jones (13 sacks), rush end Caleb Caston (10 TFLs), and 337-pound tackle Dee Liner (14 run stuffs – credit to Bill Connelly).
Ronheen Bingham, Hunter Moreton, and Christian Howard (combined 19.5 TFLs) look like potentially capable fill-ins on the line, and they are aided by a trio of JuCo transfers and former Ball State Cardinal Kevin Thurmon. We'll see if the linebacker corps, not supplemented as much, withstands the subtractions.
With a dangerous offense and an adequate defense, all the Red Wolves have to do is stay healthy. Should they do that, the division is theirs.
If Arkansas State has problems though, who can take the West instead?
UL-Monroe has a monstrous passing game and a potentially strong running game, each led by junior quarterback Caleb Evans. But their defense is horrendous: opponents averaged 7.3 yards per play last season; only Tulsa and East Carolina were worse in that stat. Lots of players come back, so maybe the reps they got last year will help a little. I doubt it will be enough to make the Warhawks more than a bowl team.
South Alabama, now coached by JuCo and FCS success story Steve Campbell, doesn't look threatening either. The Jags desperately need some kind of offense to have a chance. Having experience in every position group helps, but how much will that matter for a team with no run game and no clear quarterback? This team needs seasoning.
Like their rivals in Monroe, the Ragin' Cajuns of Lafayette were only functional on one side of the ball last season: offense. (Fittingly, when the two played, ULM won in a barn-burner: 56-50.) The Cajuns' offense, which wasn't as impressive as the Warhawks', brings back basically everyone at the skill positions. If the line performs adequately (an uncertain thing), this unit could take off.
The defense, however, replaces a lot of regulars – bad news for a team that was already abysmal at keeping teams out of the end zone. (Opponents averaged 40.0 points per game.) For Billy Napier to win in his new gig, he needs to fix the defense first.
Eventually, Everett Withers' Texas State will look like a real Division I football team. Now entering his third year as head coach, Withers has more leeway than most coaches with two identical 2-10 seasons on their ledgers do. That's what taking over for Dennis Franchione does for a guy, I guess.
The Bobcats played tons of sophomores and freshman last year, and especially on defense, that looks like it could start to pay off soon. But don't expect more than early signs of life in San Marcos.
East
Predicted standings:
1. Troy
2. Appalachian State
3. Georgia State
4. Coastal Carolina
5. Georgia Southern
5. Georgia Southern
Welcome to the Sun Belt East! Two teams have a chance at the division title instead of one! A once-proud FCS powerhouse is rebuilding under a new coach! One of their rivals, whose program began this decade, made a bowl game last year (but probably won't this year)! One team only joined FBS in 2017, and their head coach is a former CEO of a major company – and he's done a pretty good job! Intrigue!
The two frontrunners, Troy and Appalachian State, each face the same problem: significant turnover on their previously effective offenses.
The Trojans lose their two leading rushers, three of their top five receivers, and a four-year starter at quarterback.
The Mountaineers lose three starting linemen (two of whom made first-team all-conference), their leading receiver, and a four-year starter of their own at quarterback.
How each team replaces the departed personnel will likely determine who wins the East.
I prefer Troy, if only slightly. Neal Brown catches a break from the outset by missing Arkansas State on the schedule this year, a break his Boone counterpart Scott Satterfield doesn't get.
Offensively, Troy could be relatively fine. Four of five starting offensive linemen come back, including a pair of second-team all-conference players and one who made the third team. As a third-stringer, presumed No. 1 running back Jamarius Henderson averaged 7.9 yards per carry last season. Deondre Douglas and Damion Willis, the team's two best receivers, stay for one more year and should serve their new quarterback well.
What really puts the Trojans ahead is that their defense, their true strength, looks no weaker. For all the significant losses, like tackles Jamal Stadom and Baron Poole II (17.5 combined TFLs), there are quality players who can make up for their absences, like Trevon Sanders and Marcus Webb (13.5 combined TFLs). Rush end Hunter Reese, defensive end Antione Barker, and Will linebacker Tron Folsom should make plenty of tackles in the backfield themselves. The Trojans, whose 2.9 yards per carry allowed ranked second in FBS to Alabama, will once again stifle the run.
Losing starting DBs Tyquae Russell and Andre Flakes doesn't hurt as much when two of the conference's best, Blace Brown and Marcus Jones, are still here. At every position group, the Troy defense remains formidable.
App State's aerial attack will be worse without star QB Taylor Lamb, but the fact three of their most-targeted receivers last season were freshmen should alleviate the problem.
What will be harder is running the ball as well, which will hurt a mostly ground-based offense. Jalin Moore, Marcus Williams, Jr., and Daetrich Harrington are proven, talented tailbacks, which is a good start. However, running the ball well requires good blockers. Junior Victor Johnson, a first-team all-conference selection at left tackle last season, certainly qualifies. With only one of his partners returning though, we don't yet know how capable this unit is as a whole.
The App State defense was one of the best in the conference last year in large part because of how disruptive it was. After Troy and New Mexico State, no Sun Belt team had a higher sack rate; only 16 FBS schools anywhere did better. Continuing that will be difficult without some of the team's leading wreakers of havoc: Four players with four or more tackles for loss graduated, including sack leader Tee Sims. There are more decent players than standout ones ready to fill those players' holes.
Top corners Clifton Duck and Tae Hayes lead a still strong secondary, but the Mountaineers are definitely weaker up front.
If Satterfield gets good play out of his linemen on either side of the ball, he could have an East champion. If not, he'll probably have a respectable, eight- or nine-win team.
The two frontrunners, Troy and Appalachian State, each face the same problem: significant turnover on their previously effective offenses.
The Trojans lose their two leading rushers, three of their top five receivers, and a four-year starter at quarterback.
The Mountaineers lose three starting linemen (two of whom made first-team all-conference), their leading receiver, and a four-year starter of their own at quarterback.
How each team replaces the departed personnel will likely determine who wins the East.
I prefer Troy, if only slightly. Neal Brown catches a break from the outset by missing Arkansas State on the schedule this year, a break his Boone counterpart Scott Satterfield doesn't get.
Offensively, Troy could be relatively fine. Four of five starting offensive linemen come back, including a pair of second-team all-conference players and one who made the third team. As a third-stringer, presumed No. 1 running back Jamarius Henderson averaged 7.9 yards per carry last season. Deondre Douglas and Damion Willis, the team's two best receivers, stay for one more year and should serve their new quarterback well.
What really puts the Trojans ahead is that their defense, their true strength, looks no weaker. For all the significant losses, like tackles Jamal Stadom and Baron Poole II (17.5 combined TFLs), there are quality players who can make up for their absences, like Trevon Sanders and Marcus Webb (13.5 combined TFLs). Rush end Hunter Reese, defensive end Antione Barker, and Will linebacker Tron Folsom should make plenty of tackles in the backfield themselves. The Trojans, whose 2.9 yards per carry allowed ranked second in FBS to Alabama, will once again stifle the run.
Losing starting DBs Tyquae Russell and Andre Flakes doesn't hurt as much when two of the conference's best, Blace Brown and Marcus Jones, are still here. At every position group, the Troy defense remains formidable.
App State's aerial attack will be worse without star QB Taylor Lamb, but the fact three of their most-targeted receivers last season were freshmen should alleviate the problem.
What will be harder is running the ball as well, which will hurt a mostly ground-based offense. Jalin Moore, Marcus Williams, Jr., and Daetrich Harrington are proven, talented tailbacks, which is a good start. However, running the ball well requires good blockers. Junior Victor Johnson, a first-team all-conference selection at left tackle last season, certainly qualifies. With only one of his partners returning though, we don't yet know how capable this unit is as a whole.
The App State defense was one of the best in the conference last year in large part because of how disruptive it was. After Troy and New Mexico State, no Sun Belt team had a higher sack rate; only 16 FBS schools anywhere did better. Continuing that will be difficult without some of the team's leading wreakers of havoc: Four players with four or more tackles for loss graduated, including sack leader Tee Sims. There are more decent players than standout ones ready to fill those players' holes.
Top corners Clifton Duck and Tae Hayes lead a still strong secondary, but the Mountaineers are definitely weaker up front.
If Satterfield gets good play out of his linemen on either side of the ball, he could have an East champion. If not, he'll probably have a respectable, eight- or nine-win team.
After a solid first year at Georgia State, Shawn Elliott has some work to do. Nice blends of experience and youth in the receiving corps and on the offensive line can only do so much for a team that loses its QB, and whose run game was absolutely listless last season. Maybe check on the offense again in another year.
The defense, meanwhile, is a bit hurt by graduations but okay. The front seven is more convincing than the secondary, so the Panthers will run into trouble against teams with good passing games: Arkansas State, App State, Troy, and the ULs – so, more than half their Sun Belt schedule. Bowling might be a tough ask.
For a team just transitioning to FBS and missing their head coach, Coastal Carolina was acceptably bad last year. Joe Moglia is back, but it may not go that much more smoothly. With a new quarterback and lots of youth on the line, the offense may struggle. The defense may have linebacker problems but looks set to improve at least a little.
I figure a worsening offense and an improving defense evens out; expect a pretty similar season to the one the Chanticleers had in 2017. Having signed a mammoth, 34-player class this offseason though, they have a stocked cupboard for the future.
Tyson Summers was an absolute disaster at Georgia Southern, taking the Eagles from an impressive FBS newcomer to one of the worst teams in the country. When the school terminated him midway through last season, Southern was winless; under interim coach Chad Lunsford, they lost another three straight before somehow stomping South Alabama 52-0 and beating UL-Lafayette 34-24.
Apparently convinced by those two victories, Southern removed Lunsford's interim title before his season-ending loss to Coastal Carolina. Lunsford was born in Georgia, graduated from Division II Georgia College, and has spent all but two years of his coaching career in the state of Georgia, including nine in Statesboro. So he's certainly a cultural fit. We'll see if he's actually the right guy.
Fortunately for him, he works with an incredibly young roster. By Bill Connelly's returning production stat, the Eagles bring back the third-most of any FBS program. Their trademark option attack was far from what it has been before, but it was merely bad instead of dreadful, so there might be something salvageable. The run defense was downright porous, so that's less encouraging.
Still: Youth provides a good starting point. Give it a couple years, and Southern might look like themselves again.
Or they'll still be bad and looking up at their rivals in Atlanta and Boone, ditch Lunsford, and face a full-on identity crisis. This could prove a pivotal moment in the history of the program.
* * *
Up next: the MAC and Mountain West.
Tons of credit for stats go to S&P+ creator and SB Nation writer Bill Connelly, whose advanced statistical profiles are invaluable for their detail. Sports-Reference's data also came in handy.
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