Previewing New Mexico

Overview

Record: 9-3 (6-2, 4th in Mountain West)

"Second-order" Record: 7.6-4.4

SP+ Overall Rank: 65th

New Mexico has been one of 2025's most pleasant surprises. A year ago, the school prudently hired Bronco Mendenhall, a veteran coach with ample experience out west, only for him to take over conference mate Utah State after one 5-7 season. Players left. UNM entered the year ranking 117th in returning production, which seemed to foreshadow a difficult first season for Jason Eck.

Instead, Eck and his 43 incoming transfers (seven of whom came from his prior stop, Idaho) won the program's most regular season games since 1997, which was Dennis Franchione's last year in charge. The Lobos finished 4th in a four-way tie atop the Mountain West and now get to play a Big Ten team in a bowl game just 80 minutes by air from Albuquerque.

Eck signed a contract extension at the end of November, which will not keep him at UNM for long but resets the buyout other schools would owe them if he left next year. I am a longtime Eck believer. He seems like the perfect candidate to take over at his alma mater, Wisconsin, at the end of 2026, which adds some intrigue to this game. The 2017 Cotton Bowl, where P.J. Fleck coached Western Michigan for the last time against Wisconsin before taking the Minnesota job, provides an imperfect parallel.

More immediately, the Lobos are a solid team that will provide the Gophers a real game. SP+, FPI, and CFB Graphs have this matchup as a practical toss-up. Minnesota being in the sport's second-best conference and New Mexico being in likely the third-worst does not remotely make the result a given.

Offense

Jason Eck and offensive coordinator Luke Schleusner have put together an offense that is not spectacular but respectable, ranking in the middle of FBS and the Mountain West in most statistical categories. There are more efficient teams, there are more explosive teams, and there are teams with more playmakers, but what New Mexico does works enough.

The Lobos operate at a basically even run-pass split, and getting in an early hole at Michigan forced them to go pass-first. However, in their trip to UCLA, they adopted a strictly ball-control mentality and rolled. Of UNM's 63 plays, 46 were runs, gaining 298 yards. The Lobos also let almost 35 seconds run off the clock per play. Minnesota is a better team than UCLA — especially the version of the Bruins we saw in September — but we can probably bet on a similar approach in Phoenix. At a talent disadvantage, the Lobos will want to limit possessions and stick to the ground.

The Lobos' run game relies largely on zone concepts — inside, outside, split — but has plenty of diversity, with power, counter, and trap all in the playbook. A favorite design is a rarity in 2025, the G-lead or G-scheme run, where the playside guard pulls ahead with the help of a blocking back:

The above play is out of a quasi-Wildcat package featuring backup quarterback James Laubstein. First-stringer Jack Layne sometimes leaves the field for several downs at a time to give Laubstein some work, which means he does drop back a fair bit: Laubstein has thrown 14 passes this year. However, the overwhelming majority of his snaps are designed runs. He has exactly 1 more rushing yard than Layne (310 versus 309) on six fewer carries (43 to 49). Both quarterbacks take the ball on draw and read option.

Identifying Potential Transfer Priorities for the Gophers (2025-26)

A month from today, the college football transfer window officially opens. The players Minnesota adds from other programs at that point are as important as the high school and junior college signings they make this Wednesday. Under P.J. Fleck, several key players came to Minneapolis as a second (or third stop): Benjamin St-Juste, Nyles Pinckney, Matthew Trickett, Max Brosmer, John Nestor, and many more.

A year ago today, I gave my predictions of what positions the Gophers would try to improve or fill with transfers. I was mostly right, though with qualifications: The coaching staff, seeing Drake Lindsey in practice every day, was willing to start him as a redshirt freshman rather than finding another rental starter. The team added two starting offensive linemen, not just one. They brought in two defensive tackles, but both were a little undersized, and only Rushawn Lawrence got to play after Mo Omonode's injury. Two cornerbacks came in (both with multiple years of eligibility), but only one safety going out meant that seeking backup at the back was not necessary. They also loaded up on specialists, brought in a tight end, and signed one of the top tailbacks on the market instead of just depth.

Notable is how some of the positions of need recur each year for the Gophers. For example: Three years ago, they needed a cornerback; two years ago, they needed a cornerback; a year ago, they needed a cornerback; and headed into next year, they at least might need a cornerback after it proved perhaps the Gophers' biggest flaw.

As generally consistent as Fleck's program has been, and granting that in some places it is relatively fine to plug in a new guy every year or two, Minnesota has had roster construction difficulties in recent years. It has become harder this decade for a "developmental program," to use a Fleckism, to balance the need for immediate results with actual development. Even if you find the right transfers to succeed at the former aim, shortcomings in the latter will catch up to you at some point. We saw how this affected the 2025 season.

Regardless of the bigger picture: Current needs are current needs, and the Gophers have some. Here are nine such needs they might try to address.

In this post, players are referred to by their class (freshman, sophomore, etc.) entering the 2026 season. This practice may be slightly confusing, but since this covers the 2026 roster, it is better than the alternative.

Running Back

Potential need: depth

The Gophers like to carry at least eight running backs. Assuming Darius Taylor leaves for the NFL, they are currently set to enter next preseason with seven. They should have total belief in A.J. Turner (if healty) and Fame Ijeboi but will be looking for a third-down back who can pass protect and be a threat out of the backfield. Cam Davis had that role this season, and Bryce Williams did for many years before him. Maybe Grant Washington, Xavier Ford, or one of the current commits can fill it now. Even if one of them can, Minnesota will add another tailback or two just to fill out the roster.

Wide Receiver

Potential need: depth

Like with other positions on the roster, Minnesota's need at receiver is dependent on how much they have to replace. If the only losses are Le'Meke Brockington, Logan Loya, and Quentin Redding, the Gophers might be fine letting their young players — and it is a young group — step into bigger roles. A team could do far worse than a starting three of Malachi Coleman, Jalen Smith, and Javon Tracy. Kenric Lanier earned a role with his blocking this season and will get more snaps. If Cristian Driver and Bradley Martino are available after missing this season, that can just about round out the rotation.

As always, though, targets are hard to come by, and those who will not play much in 2026 could look for new schools. If that happens, or if the staff wants a receiver who can do a specific job in the offense, we can expect at least one new face.