It's almost baseball season. To commemorate this occasion and officially open Ski-U-Blog, I will preview the season with a triplet of posts on the upcoming season. Here is the first, a team-by-team overview of the National League, featuring a lot more words on the Brewers than you would think.
East
Washington Nationals
The Dodgers’ rotation beats
everyone else in the league on sheer depth, and the Red Sox’ is the league’s
best collection of aces 1-2-3. If I had to pick a third place though, there’s
little question that I would go to the NL East.
Is Max Scherzer-Stephen
Strasburg a better one-two punch than Noah Syndergaard-Jacob deGrom? I’d say so.
At his best, Scherzer can be better than anyone other than Clayton Kershaw. Strasburg,
while not the mega-ace he was expected to be coming out of college, would top
many team’s rotations just fine. The two place second and third respectively in
K/9 since 2014. Only David Price has Mad Max beaten in innings pitched, and
three have him beat in net Win Probability Added over that stretch. After Price
and Chris Sale, these two might be the envy of the rest of baseball.
None of the Nats’ 3 through 5
starters have the upside of the Mets’ (which is why the Mets’ starters are
better as a whole), but they are all reliable and capable of at least
borderline-All-Star performances. Tanner Roark, in a year dominated by the home
run ball, nearly matched his career low in HR/9 since becoming a full-time
starter. I doubt whether Washington can cope with one or two of them going down
just because of lack of depth, but as things stand, they look great.
Obligatory Bryce Harper talk:
he didn’t hit the ball as hard as he did during his MVP season, but there’s no
way at all he’s a .264 BABIP hitter. He’ll be more than fine.
New York Mets
So here’s the thing about the
Mets’ starters: they might not all be able to stay on the field. deGrom, Matt
Harvey, and Steven Matz all missed time last year due to injury, which is a
pretty big deal, since when they actually pitch, they’re really good. They’re
all healthy right now, and maybe they’ll all miss a combined five games for the
rest of their respective careers, and this early concern over some injuries
will be totally unfounded. That concern feels totally reasonable right now
though, so for now, we’ll just wait and see.
The Mets’ position group is
nothing terrible – anything with Yoenis Cespedes is inherently pretty close to
wonderful, at least to watch – but lacks many great players beyond Cespedes.
Potential holes aren’t difficult to find: Asdrubal Cabrera, Curtis Granderson,
and Neil Walker are still quite capable of solid contributions (Walker led the
team in fWAR), but young they are not. Time has ravaged Jose Reyes and David
Wright, two former Mets greats who are expected to hold things down at third.
Even Cespedes is getting up there. There are just a lot of miles on this
lineup’s odometer; Michael Conforto is the only projected starter under 28.
I don’t have a ton of
confidence in the Mets overall. Stellar pitching has carried them to Wild Card
spots before, but if they want it to do so again, it’ll require good health
that I don’t know is a possibility.
Miami Marlins
I am uncomfortable trying to preview
the Marlins. It feels cold to talk about them in exclusively baseball terms
after the death of Jose Fernandez, but I don’t know what the best way to
address it is. Far better writers than me have written about Fernandez and his
death already, and at some point, the Marlins will have to be talked about as a
baseball team. So I will try to do that.
Miami has a small collection of
talented position players, some strong relievers, and little else. That is far
from enough to take them beyond averageness – if they can even get that far.
If the Fish have any hope to
make the postseason, they desperately need more out of their biggest star.
Giancarlo Stanton can still hammer a baseball like few other people alive, but
the fact is that he did not do it well enough or often enough in 2016,
especially to offset his defense (which was certainly affected by injuries). He
set a career low in wRC+, hitting just 14 percent better than the average major
leaguer thanks to a lower batting average on balls in play, less power, and a
suppressed walk rate.
Stanton’s BABIP and power
output aren’t unrelated. Despite facing more pitches to the outer part of the plate than he did during the first six years of his career and not facing a particularly smaller number of fastballs,
Stanton pulled the ball less often than he has in any season except for 2011.
And when he doesn’t pull the ball, he doesn’t hit it as hard:
almost half the fly balls he hits to left go over the fence, but less than a
fifth do when he hits them elsewhere. So to put it simply: if Giancarlo pulls
the ball more in 2017, he will hit better. (Of course, if he managed put it in
the air more often when he does pull it, he might become the most fearsome
power hitter alive.)
But let’s say Stanton makes the
proper adjustments and returns to All-Star form. What then? Barring unexpected
improvements across the rest of the roster, the Marlins probably still won’t be
able to compete for the Wild Card. Their starting rotation as it stands is
utterly ghastly. Stanton and Christian Yelich can’t outslug everyone on the way
to the playoffs.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are approaching
interesting status. Their rotation was quite respectable in 2016, led by the
young trio of Jerad Eickhoff, Aaron Nola, and Vincent Velasquez, and they
should remain that way this season (though new arrival Clay Buchholz is
something of a wild card).
However, their position players
do not evoke the same level of confidence. Projection systems think Maikel
Franco and Odubel Herrera are the only ones who will be better than decent
starters, though perhaps you can swap Franco for Cesar Hernandez if you more
heavily weigh their 2016 performances. Otherwise, the lineup is an amalgam of
warty or unproven youth and veteran mediocrity. Thanks to a crazy April and
May, the Phillies finished eight wins better than their Pythagorean record,
which is well beyond the threshold where you can attribute such a difference to
shrewd management and an effective bullpen.
There’s no escaping that
Philadelphia will likely stay in the AL East’s basement for some time.
Atlanta Braves
I’ll start by saying that
Dansby Swanson is absolutely legit. I shouldn’t feel so sure about a guy who’s
played 38 big league games, but Swanson certainly made the most of those 38
games, hitting .302/.361/.442 with good defense – despite having fewer than 600
combined minor league plate appearances since being picked first overall out of
Vanderbilt in 2015. It’s not analytical at all to say that he just looks like he belongs at this level, but
he really looks like he belongs at this level and is going to be a great player
for years.
Beyond Swanson, the Braves have
a small number of competent players, including the underrated All-Star first
baseman Freddie Freeman, and some assorted spare parts that you’ve probably
heard of but haven’t thought of in a while. Remember Nick Markakis? He’s in
right field. Kurt Suzuki? One of a handful of catchers on the roster.
Brandon Phillips? Just brought over from Cincinnati to pair with Swanson. Matt
Kemp? Hitting dingers and contributing a loose imitation of defense in left. It’s
nothing resembling a passable major league starting nine, and it will probably
be pretty bad.
Closer to averageness is the
team’s pitching, which includes the homegrown Julio Tehran and some plugged-in
veterans who will eat innings and maybe bring people to their new, unnecessary
ballpark in Cobb County. Anyone who expects this group of players to bring a
division title to Atlanta soon is surely fooling him or herself, but I think
the front office’s attempt to approach mediocrity will at least make them
slightly more respectable than the Phillies.
Central
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs were so much fun last
year, which is weird in a way because normally the best club in baseball
winning the World Series with possibly the best management team in baseball is
usually boring. But you obviously know why they weren’t boring, and it will be
impossible to match that level of magic in 2017.
So the era of the Boring Cubs
is about to begin after just two years of the Fun Cubs. Maybe they’ll still be
fun this year, but they simply cannot be after that. This team is stacked for
the present and future in a way possibly unmatched by any team in recent
memory. Better get used to it.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals will be good
again, and it will be terrible. I find no major problems on their roster,
except that Jhonny Peralta and Jedd Gyorko might be merely passable at third,
and that Matt Carpenter’s bat will be a little less impressive at first – and
those are probably not killing the team. Barring an injury deluge (which they
might survive anyway), they will be the same infuriatingly good Cardinals.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates became very average
in a hurry last year. Part of it was injuries (Gerrit Cole lost 92 innings;
Starling Marte lost 24 games), but a bigger part was just players falling
victim to various levels of decline. Francisco Cervelli lost a bit; Francisco
Liriano’s ERA went up over two points, prompting his trade to Toronto; Jeff
Locke went from mediocre to garbage; the bullpen went from one of the best in
baseball to one of the worst; and Andrew McCutchen, as has been well
documented, totally fell off a cliff. Add it all up, and you lose 20 more
games.
Should that all happen again in
2016? No. Full seasons from Cole and Marte will go a long way, McCutchen should
benefit greatly from playing in right instead of center, and everyone should
just regress at least a little bit to their mean talent levels. Jung Ho Kang
may take some time to rejoin the team, if he does so at all (don’t drink and
drive, folks), meaning David Freese will have to fill in, and that’s not a
terrible substitute. Should Josh Bell’s bat prove to be as good as it’s
supposed to be, Pittsburgh will have a monstrous hitter that will definitely
make up for his terrible fielding.
Should all that happen, though,
the Pirates still look short. Standing in the shadows of the Cardinals and
especially the Cubs, a division title is practically out of the question. The
roster is fine, but it’s nothing special. They need more to secure a Wild Card
spot.
Milwaukee Brewers
In last year’s preview, I
listed a litany of reasons why the Brewers could have been good in 2016,
followed the biggest reason why they would not be: because even if all the
things that I mentioned came together as I said they could have, they would
have still been a bad baseball team. And it turns out, let me see here – yep,
the Brewers were a really bad baseball team in 2016.
What’s interesting, however, is
that some of the things I threw out there came true. It wasn’t because I
thought they actually would; to be honest, it was mostly just a device. I
needed more stuff to put on my list. Once you get past the conceivable stuff,
like Jonathan Lucroy playing like an All-Star (he did) and Scooter Gennett
playing well (he didn’t), you kind of have to look up and down the roster and
find names you know, and then do something with them, or else the conceit of
your idea is dead.
Anyway, the first shot in the
dark that happened is that Jonathan Villar did in fact become notable for
something other than ramming his nose straight into the rectum of an oddly
prepared Brandon Phillips while diving into second base. No one would ever accuse Villar of being a good defensive
shortstop (or third baseman, for that matter), but one thing he demonstrated in
2016 is that apparently he can hit pretty well. He showed a flash of offensive
ability in his final year with Houston, but having come in only 55 games, it
was easy to pass off. In his first full big league season though, Villar bat
for a .285/.369/.457 slash line, 18 percent better than the average MLB hitter.
As is often the case with a
player who suddenly announces himself as a greater offensive threat than before,
one likely can point out a high BABIP and shriek to the heavens,
“Unsustainable!” That .373 mark is a bit high, but it might not be something
Villar cannot match, especially since he isn’t hitting fewer ground balls.
However, doing some very basic
math on the triple slash above will tell you that he had a .171 isolated
slugging, the best of his career at any level. A look at his batted ball statistics
tells you how. He scorched the ball compared to the rest of his career, posting
a 35.1 percent hit-hard rate. Statcast says he nearly doubled his number of
“barrels” per batted ball event between 2015 and 2016. And he’s pulling the
ball a fair bit less.
Is Villar as great a hitter as
his numbers in 2016 said he is? Probably not. He’s still likely an above-average
one though, and that has value, especially for a 25-year-old with another four
seasons of control.
A final note on Villar, and
possibly the most significant thing about his season last year: the man stole
62 bases, and none of you probably noticed. That’s more than anyone in
baseball, including runner-up Billy Hamilton. Now, Villar had an extra 37 games
on Hamilton, but the point remains that in addition to a guy who hits well, the
Brewers have one of the best baserunners in the game on their hands, and he’s
in the same body. With Villar moving to second to make room for top prospect
Orlando Arcia, his defensive production might improve to the point where he’s
not just a solid everyday player, but an All-Star.
The other breakout season in
Milwaukee was one Keon Broxton, who, as I casually threw out as a distant
possibility last April, really did demonstrate more than one tool. Broxton is
as unique a ballplayer as you may find; he is almost a three-true-outcomes
hitter that also plays center field with crazy speed and great fielding
ability. His exit velocities matched
those of Miguel Sano in 2016. Midway through last year, Broxton figured out how to hit with power, and
he exploded – again, as a center
fielder also capable of stealing 23 bases in 75 games. He legitimately looks to
be the Brewers’ best player.
How good will the Brewers be
with these two likely leading the way? The answer is that they should be better
than last year, but still at best mediocre. The Eric Thames signing was an
inspired one, and Ryan Braun isn’t retired yet, but I have some serious concerns
with their roster as it currently stands. Domingo Santana, for all his immense power,
cannot field, and he has a major problem striking out. He also might want to
hit fewer ground balls.
Arcia also struggled in his
first 55 major league games last year, and it wouldn’t be surprising if both
his and Santana’s growing pains continued. Between Jett Bandy and Andrew Susac,
the catching position is kind of a mystery. Travis Shaw is a totally underwhelming
third baseman. “Totally underwhelming” is also a good descriptor for the team’s
pitching, which features three adequate starters, a couple of good relievers,
and a whole lot of question marks.
Hope is emerging on the horizon
for the Brewers. It’s just still a long ways away.
Cincinnati Reds
The 2016 Cincinnati Reds’
pitching staff finished with the only negative fWAR in modern history. That is phenomenally terrible. It is actually somewhat
comforting in that it reminds me that the Twins’ pitching could legitimately be
worse, but that is beside the point. The Reds’ pitchers are bad, and if you don’t want numbers to
tell you that, then just read to yourself the phrase “Scott Feldman: Opening Day starter” and reflect upon it.
The problem with such a
historically bad staff is that it will take a long time to fix. Feldman will
eat innings, and Anthony DeSclafani (if healthy, which he may not be) is no
schmuck, but those guys won’t be around when Cincinnati has an even passable
rotation.
Who might be there though?
Brandon Finnegan, the former TCU star, is still 24 years old, but he has
significant control problems. Robert Stephenson, the same age as Finnegan, came
up last year and took a shellacking, letting over two homers per nine innings
and having a slightly harder time throwing strikes. Those aren’t usually good
signs. Amir Garrett is knocking from AAA and appears to know how to keep the
ball in the park, and scouts think he will continue his history of gradual
improvement. A pessimist might say there’s no such thing as pitching prospects;
an optimist can tally one young, significant contributor.
The system’s other top
projected arms aren’t expected until 2018 or later though. If Finnegan and
Stephenson flame out, the team has Garrett and DeSclafani to cling to for the
future until everyone else arrives. Stopgap veterans can only last them so
long. The Reds look like they’ll be eating the Central’s dust for years.
West
Los Angeles Dodgers
FanGraphs’ projections have the
Dodgers at the top of the majors right now. If you asked for hands on who
thinks that the Dodgers are in fact the best team in baseball, you would be
searching for a while for anyone to answer. Los Angeles is still really, really
good. Their rotation remains comically deep, ready for any emergency should one
of Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, or Kenta Maeda spend some time on the Disabled
List, and the lineup is at worst six players strong. Yasiel Puig might have
another underwhelming season, and the team might not have a foolproof plan in
center, but they are probably pretty okay with that, considering the competence
of their manager and the depth of their roster. The Dodgers are again the
favorite to win the NL West, and it may not be close.
San Francisco Giants
Despite frequently catastrophic
showings from their bullpen, the Giants managed to just beat out the Cardinals
for the National League’s second Wild Card and proceeded to make the best team
in baseball sweat for a little bit.
It turns out that when every other aspect of your team is really good, you can
win important ballgames.
Since you cannot win every
important ballgame without a good bullpen, however, the Giants spent the winter
fixing that. Or, to put it more accurately, they bought a really expensive
Band-Aid in the form of Mark Melancon, and then did not do anything else to fix
their bullpen issues. Maybe Melancon will be enough; I think probably not. In
left field, the team is severely lacking too, but as has been the case for many
contenders and title-winners before, one hole will not kill a team.
The Giants have not really
changed at all, which is likely a good thing more than it is a bad one. If they
miss the playoffs, it will only be barely so.
Colorado Rockies
As I noted in the fall (pre-blog), the
Rockies look anything but dull. They have a solid collection of young position
players who have demonstrated an ability to hit at the major league level,
including a star in Nolan Arenado. Their pitching is not quite all the way
there, but it’s not too old either, and it is talented. Colorado looks like
they will be really good. I think it’s more likely their breakout comes next
year; however, they are certainly on the right track.
(Plenty has been written on the
Ian Desmond deal, so I won’t bother to add more, but I will say that I get it
about as much as everyone else does. Barring a dramatic offensive improvement
from Desmond which would offset his switch to first base and which the team
foresaw, it’s truly nonsensical.)
Arizona Diamondbacks
I guess you could also say that
the Diamondbacks are on the right track in that they no longer have the most
incompetent front office in the game. In the short term though, that doesn’t
mean a lot. Last year, they were an already bad team dragged down further by
the early-season injury of A.J. Pollock, who managed just 12 games. With
Pollock back, they should be closer to the mediocre season projection systems
thought they would have last year.
The problem is that “closer” is
still pretty far away. Their lineup essentially comprises Pollock, Paul
Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and David Peralta – all four of whom have demonstrated
the capability to be fine players, but not to make all of their teammates
better. With Ketel Marte, Socrates Brito, and other spares “filling” the other
starting spots, it looks quite bad for the D-Backs on the position player
front. The rotation looks like it could be quite serviceable, but it wasn’t
really that way last year – not that it will matter in the end.
To make matters worse, it’s not
like there are talented young players on the way. The Arizona farm system was ranked 30th by ESPN’s Keith Law this January, and the organization was shut
out of both MLB.com’s top 100 prospects list and Baseball Prospectus’ top 101
prospects list. This is quite a rut the Diamondbacks find themselves in, and it
looks like it’ll be a while before they’re out of it.
San Diego Padres
Children who misbehave should
be forced to watch the Padres’ starting rotation. The kindest word to use for
it is “unpleasant.” Christian Friedrich is the best of the bunch that returns
from last year, and he is the product of scientists instructed to create in
their lab the most nondescript, boring, and average starting pitcher
imaginable. It’s fortunate that San Diego’s bullpen is so strong, because that
means that the opposing team’s score will in fact have a cap in the later
innings, and that some trade bait exists on the roster.
On the positive side: Wil Myers
is a fine player, and he is surrounded by a handful of guys who are competent,
albeit underwhelming, major leaguers. Yangervis Solarte, for example, is a
perfectly acceptable third baseman, and Ryan Schimpf may have something as a
soon-to-be-29-year-old second-year player. In case you’re wondering, neither of
those names have been made up, and I’m not lying about their abilities. The
problem is that it’s very easy to see how low most of the non-Myers players’
ceilings are, and they are pretty low. Young outfielder Manuel Margot will
hopefully provide a fair bit of this team’s excitement – however small an
amount that is.
The American League preview will be up within the next couple days, followed by a much shorter predictions post.
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